The Wheat Trade

There are a few questions to ask here.

1) If that was an obvious trade to make (trading the low and going long), then why did Socrates not emit a bullish reversal. In other words, the Socrates system is stupid.

2) If as claimed, the knowledge required to IGNORE the bad elected weekly bullish reversal is only available in the pro version, then one should not buy ANY version below the pro version because the pro version traders would be trading against you.

Conclusion: Do only buy the pro version, because anything else is rubbish, and keep in mind that it will take years to master the pro version because the system is going to give you wrong signals that only after years of learning you will be able to ignore.

Meanwhile you will be broke from paying the subscription and from the depletion of your trading account.

Also, you will notice that midstream before can reach your goal, the cherished services will no longer be available because such type of business based on fraud has an expiry date like a rotten tomato.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

After the fact. In other scenarios with support as you say, with weekly reversals elected but other weekly reversals below as support, you would not have traded them, the market would have rushed through support and you would have missed the opportunity. There are no black and white rules as you say, and that is the problem.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

1) I have used the pro subscription
2) If a monthly bearish is NOT elected while a weekly bearish IS elected, since when does this INVALIDATE the weekly bearish election to the extent that you need to trade against it?

This is the after the fact ambiguity everybody will recognize. You are clearly cherry-picking here, and this type of logic is alien to an objective observer.

You would lose profit opportunities not trading dozens of good weekly reversals if you start trading this way - essentially you would be biting your nails not trading at all.

3) If this was a computer system as claimed, and what you are claiming was a business rule in the system, then the computer system would consider it and emit the correct signal according to this rule.

No, I am not buying this cheap type of argument, and not many people here will buy it, either.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

How to help reduce the damage of armstrongeconomics.com and ask-socrates.com ?

I think this blog is a great resource to discuss Martin Armstrong's methods and record the failures.

However I also think that because of the sequential and unstructured nature of this blog, the impact is perhaps negligible. I mean he has his massive web site, numerous interviews on youtube. If you search for him on google, the results are saturated by his own material.

I feel obligated to spread the truth about him as much as possible because it all looks like a fraud to me now.

How can we get out the word about him faster? I am sure that there are some experts out there who would be keen to shut him down. Perhaps someone can update wikipedia at least?


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Thanks.

And here is how to profit: Crude oil price predictions based on his war model:

Crude Oil & The Future




Crude Oil & The Future
Posted Jul 9, 2014 by Martin Armstrong
Nevertheless, oil peaked intraday in 2009 but the highest yearly close came in 2011. It is poised to rally into 2017 and it appears this is lining up with our war models.

Crude oil was at around USD 100 in 2014 when he wrote this and it declined to USD 30 from there.

Armstrong is a Crackpot

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Give me a break. Sounds like Martin Armstrong's support person. True Armstrong style.

Here we go:

Last sentence in a Socrates report:

We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.

So either this is a sell signal, or if it is not then it is garbage.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

I have done a fair bit of neural network and evolutionary programming to predict time series and to optimize trading strategies. Stuff that far exceeds in complexity what Martin Armstrong is doing with his disaster code.

True, if you had all the data in all dimensions, a few supercomputers and hordes of programmers and analysts, you would be able to make some predictions with that. But in comparison with the pattern matching machinery in a single human brain, it would still be lacking. The human pattern matching ability is absolutely unmatched in quality. Just try. Look at thousands of charts and keep trading - you will get better and better. If you are still getting frustrated, and you will, guaranteed, then there are reasons for that: Mainly unpredictability and greed. It is as simple as that. There are events that come out of the blue, market manipulation, insider trading, just market participants trying to out-smart each other. That's the game, and it is unpredictable, random to a large extent. It is similar to getting sea-sick in a ship.

Martin Armstrong keeps telling his audience in his blogs that only his computer can manage the complexity. I do not believe it. First we know it can't be true based on the experience that has been documented here in this great blog. I have demonstrated here that Socrates is dumb. It does not even try to consolidate multiple conflicting signals. Second, we can't believe Martin's statements because he has a clear motive to sell his computer- based Socrates junk, the reports and the conferences. Third, and most importantly, all his models look only at a single time series, the market under study. The future price movement is just not hidden in the past price history as he wants us to believe. It does not matter how far back that time series goes - we know that it does not work.

And now I am going full circle. If the future price movement was in fact predictable from past price movement, then with the human pattern matching ability available to thousands if not millions, this would have been discovered long ago.

And then what? Everybody wins with that knowledge? Question: Who takes the other side of the trade?

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Zero Intelligence in Socrates

In Socrates, depending on subscription level, one gets on a daily level a signal:

False reaction for now on this level

This is a bearish signal, essentially noting that a bounce has gone too far up, and a move back down can be expected. It is based on pattern matches.

However, these signals may be generated at the same time with the election of daily bullish reversals, creating a conflict that is not mentioned in the reports.

There is absolutely no coordination between ANY of the signals, no attempt to resolve such conflicts.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Socrates and AI (Artificial Intelligence)

Martin Armstrong mentioned in his public blog numerous times, that his computer uses AI.

However, when someone reported to him another trading method actually using AI (neural networks), he dismisses the concept, saying he tried it unsuccessfully.

True AI and Fake Neural Net Forecasting Programs


So is he the father of a new otherwise unknown AI concept (true AI) far too complex for other people to understand?

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

The Superposition / Revision case is a fraud. See

Revision Signals

It is also a very dangerous entry point for front-running. Just imagine, Socrates elects a weekly bearish reversal. Everybody goes short. Martin Armstrong receives a revision signal and can trade against this crowd whose members become his bag holders. Why is it so convenient? Because he gets notified of the revision event before the report comes out the day after and in case of weekly has a full day to trade the opposite side to make a killing before anyone else gets the signal.

Fraud discredits the system as a whole, and testing becomes a futile exercise if you start following this rabbit hole. The best you can do is to be aware of it and ignore it. You may want to decide to not trade on the election event but, in the case of weekly, one trading day later, on Monday. Then you can trade the revised reversals in the opposite direction. But then you lose profit potential. Can you see how screwed-up this system is?



Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Thanks for the heads up. Sorry I was wrong. I will correct my original post.




Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Yes no problem. I have made a minor spelling correction to my post.

See:

Revision Signals



Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

German DAX.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Superposition Event in the Blog

Here we have a Revision Signal

https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com/2019/07/revision-signals.html

in the private blog. As has been noted before, these signals borrow from the future.

In this case, a daily bearish is elected on Thursday 2018-10-11, a weekly bearish is elected on Friday 2018-10-12. Then on Monday that Revision Signal comes out of the blue because the system discovers that it has been wrong.

US Share Market Afternoon Update
By: Marty Armstrong
Thursday, October 11, 2018

The Dow is trading at 25360 after we got the mid-day rally. A close today below 25454 will keep the market weak. A closing BELOW 25294 today should signal a further decline and the next low may unfold on Monday. If we get this sell signal, then we should move to the next Weekly Bearish which lies at the 24965 level and if that is elected tomorrow, then we should test the Monthly Bearish in the 23 zone next week.

We are setting the stage for a real interesting outcome here right on time for the WEC


The DOW closed below 25294 at 25052.83, so we got the sell signal.

The Markets for the Week of 10/15/2018
By: Marty Armstrong
Monday, October 15, 2018
...
We encountered a Superposition situation on the Weekly Level in the Dow electing two long-term term Weekly Bullish Reversals against a Short-term Weekly Bearish.



What this means that you go short on Thursday and Friday, make a loss, and the following Monday Martin comes out saying that the system was right again. These two long-term Weekly Bullish Reversals were NOT available on Friday. They come the next week.

If you look at the chart, even on its own terms it is not correct because the bullish movement is shorter term than the bearish movement.

Nobody would expect that a system is always right and accurate, but the claims are outlandish, and it helps to document what happened.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

I must admit that I have never seen it this way. What you write is in conflict with the basic trading rule to "cut your losses early". In case of /ZW, when we look at the chart we want to get out asap to avoid catastrophic losses. That is especially true for Armstrong reversals because of the following:

They get elected at tipping points which are resistance and support. The price tends to flip in the opposite direction rather violently in case of failure (falling back into the trend channel, racing to the opposite boundary of it).

So I do not see a great chance that a reversal trade will come right after a full one period failure. In other words, we have run out of time.

However, in the case where a reversal is right and we get some profit in the first period, then the probability to get more profit for up to another two periods is higher than to get any profit at all after a failing first period. That is my experience. Furthermore, in that second case, it is likely that we are already electing the next reversal in the same direction, so we don't need to worry at all.

Combined, this means that an evaluation method using only a single period is a practical compromise.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Martin Armstrong asleep at the Wheel

There is a lot happening in the world right now, and one would think that Martin Armstrong would feel right at home where political and economic events are unfolding that fit beautifully in his larger theme of the implosion of governments and generally looming federal debt crises in multiple countries.

He has this model given to him by history of the Roman Empire imploding, with the process starting at the periphery, eating its way to the core. At least that is the theory that he has been telling us, his big theory.

One would think, that with his timing tools and so called models at his disposal, he would be beavering away to keep his prediction schedule, the dominoes as he would need to see them falling, up to date time wise. I would expect that he is keenly building and maintaining a schedule of Europe, Turkey, the BRICS etc. collapsing in a cascade like fashion, slowly, slowly, then accelerating.

Instead, however, I have read how he was lamenting about the Emerging Markets being in free-fall, something that nobody else would see, at the time when they were still rallying very much in sync with the US stock market and global markets in general.

I was frustrated when I missed the recent decline of the Turkish stock market. Then I decided that I needed to break free from Socrates and do something. Whatever. Do some scanning. I had to learn the rather odd but powerful thinkscript programming language for that. Had to struggle with bugs in that language.

See https://stackoverflow.com/questions/56518594/how-to-create-a-variable-that-retains-its-value and https://stackoverflow.com/questions/55778141/how-to-address-a-thinkscript-idataholder-array-in-a-scan. Shocking to be honest. The guy at AmeritTrade does not understand the issues - he does not even understand what a test case is and always wants to remove the code that I write to demonstrate a defect in their system.

Nevertheless, I got the scanning good enough and started to search for subtle declines across 40,000 instruments. Found a bank in Brazil BSBR Banco Santander that fits the pattern. A match of that pattern does not mean anything as I wrote earlier. But if it is an emerging market bank, and if its price is at resistance of an otherwise declining channel, and if the timing is right, that is at least a signal that fits the bill in the greater theme.

I started reading articles about the Brazil economy, like the most recent one https://www.aei.org/publication/bolsonaros-brazil-public-debt-peril/

I have to admit that I am fairly clueless about trading. But if a dummy like me can do it, what about Martin Armstrong?

That kind of information in combination with pattern matches would help him to get his ducks in a row, at least while his Socrates system is way too stupid to get anywhere near this rather basic level of analysis.

But he is asleep at the wheel, missed this one again. Unless, of course, he reads this

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Let's try again to trade it, this time monthly reversals. Date elected: 2019-04-30, traded for one month until 2019-05-31

GDAX monthly bullish 5% loss
GDX monthly bearish 3.4% loss
SP 500 monthly bullish 6.6% loss
TLT monthly bearish 6.6% loss
/ZW Wheat futures monthly bearish 17.4% loss

This is garden variety stuff.

Now where has the AI computer with wheat prices back to 1259 been hiding?

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/agriculture/the-rise-in-agriculture-for-the-next-ecm/
Posted Jun 17, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
We have wheat prices back to 1259. Clearly, the projections it makes are all inclusive of weather and disease, for everything unfolds in a cycle.

Let me make this clear. We have had a 17% wheat price rise. The computer projection, a monthly bearish reversal, calls for a decline with a gap of -5% which is clearly the opposite. So what he is writing in his blog, is pure propaganda bullshit. The article is at least a month too late. That is NOT a successful projection.
Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Some of these contraptions are called superposition events, and they are a fraud. I wrote about them before.

It is real fun to read this being confirmed by multiple parties. It is trickery. There are so many ambiguous escape hatches in the reversal system, that will make it appear successful in hindsight after having borrowed information from the future. These tricks have been exposed here thoroughly, and this alone is sufficient to discredit the system. Based on the rules that Armstrong has published, the system cannot be used as a successful trading tool, and it is not possible to test the system based on these escape rules, obviously, because that would perhaps result in a 100% success rate.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

The name of the lowest version of the report containing reversals has changed from "SOCRATES SUMMARY ANALYSIS" to "SOCRATES Detailed Analysis" after the introduction of the premium version. You are right, there weren't reversals in the initial investor version but later on some time in between.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

The reversals are in the summary reports, you don't need the premium subscription for those. The reversals have been available before the premium version came out. Therefore, we can go back in time further.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain