The point when the last 50 BTC block is mined is the point at which the game changes, IMO.  From that moment onwards all miners are working for a lower potential reward, regardless of exactly when the first 25 BTC is found.

roy

I'd love to have the option to upgrade my order to be shipped by DHL, as USPS can easily take two weeks including customs clearance.

roy

Thanks!

I don't seem to be able to see a v2.8.4 tag in git - can I just assume that the tip of the master branch is at 2.8.4?

roy

Having not read (and barely skimmed) the paper:

It does bother me that the paper does not contain the word 'change'.  Any statistical analysis of bitcoin transactions that doesn't discuss the notion of change is likely to be flawed, since the ambiguity as to which output is the 'real' transfer and which is the change is one of the major ambiguities in the public blockchain.

I'm prepared to consider the possibility that they understand the concepts but just not the terminology (and hence my naive search for the word 'change' failed to find their discussion of this).  But I'd like to see some discussion as to whether the patterns they see in these apparently large transactions could adequately be explained simply by the normal mechanisms of change when spending large coins, and a quick skim doesn't find such a discussion.  I worry that their finding of these chains that end up transfering coins back to the sender are just the normal process of sending change back to new addresses in the same wallet, only to be susequently combined again in a future transaction.

Still, intersting to see Shamir as co-author on a paper.  For him to get second billing, I imagine that probably means that the work was primarily done by a student of his who he supervised - but still.  To know that bitcoin is on Adi Shamir's radar is certainly interesting.

roy

I think this is how it works:

In order to submit the block solo, you'd have to change the address to which the block reward is payable to be one that you control.  And you'd have to do this before solving the block, otherwise you'd change the hash.  A pool operator obviously isn't going to accept a share where you've modified the coinbase transaction to change the address the block reward is paid to - so your shares would simply be rejected.

Yes, it's true that the one thing the pool operator knows but you don't is the private key of the address that the block reward is payable to - but that's really answering a different question, namely: "why can't you spend someone else's coins?"

roy

I tried to make a bank transfer today (before seeing the warning not to make transfers Sat-Mon) and my bank rejected the transfer with an error saying the payment cannot be completed because the receiving bank account has been closed.

Is this related to the above or is there a new problem?

roy

Probably not so much these days - used to be that some things didn't support Xcode 4.  Also you need Xcode 3 to build for old OS X versions.

Now, we may be getting to the point where everyone starts moving to Xcode 4 and dropping OS X 10.5 support - that's presumably the reason behind Gavin's question.  But, the fact that Gavin is asking this question means, I think, that like many open source projects Bitcoin is currently still building with Xcode 3.  That's as good a reason for me as any to stay with 10.6 so I can still use Xcode 3. (Xcode 3 won't run on 10.7.)

Because repartitioning my disk would be a pain.  And it's a laptop so adding an additional disk isn't really an option.

roy

I don't think getting a refund of customs duty already paid is going to be viable, sadly.

Anyway, I don't know what the rules are (and I doubt anyone posting to this thread does).  But I'm happy to pay whatever tax is legally due.

I am not interested in making fraudulant customs declarations and I hope and expect that BFL will not make any fraudulant customs declarations, either.

roy

The value of something has very little to do with what you pay for it, and there'd have to be something very wrong with a Single SC for its value to be as low as $699, given they sell for $1299 new.

roy

I don't believe that's true.  I think Bitforce, legally, are obliged to put the true value of the goods on the customs form and Commercial Invoice (if they supply one).  i.e. $1299.  

Anyway, I'm not asking anyone to do anything illegal.  In fact, I would urge Bitforce, PLEASE, do everything by the book - the last thing I want is to have my shipment siezed or delayed due to incorrect declarations.  

roy

ETA: It's not the fees *I* pay to import the goods that I'm worried about; I'm happy to pay those.  My question is, what if there are fees in the other direction (i.e. when I send the goods back to BFL).  It may be that BFL is confident this is a non-issue, in which case all well and good.

It maybe a non-issue - at least I guess there's no equivalent of import VAT to pay in the US.  Hopefully there's no duty to pay, and all is well.  Still, I will complete the post office customs form honestly on my returned Single - I'm certainly not going to risk it being seized due to an incorrect declaration.

I'd just rather get this resolved before it arises. If my trade-in package gets stuck in US Customs with a fee needing to be paid to release it, I'd like to know that BFL were set up and ready for me to just send them some coins to cover the fee, if necessary, rather than risk long delays or (worse) having the package destroyed or returned.

roy

I'm curious what thought has been given to how trade-in will work for non-US customers.

When I, as a non-US customer, return my Single to trade-in for an Single 'SC', what happens when it gets to US customs?  Will there be money to pay, and if so who pays it.

roy

OS X 10.6, because upgrading would lose me the ability to run XCode 3.

roy

Ah, cool, thanks, Kano - I skim read a bunch of Josh's posts and must have got the wrong end of the stick.

So, sounds like there will be a bunch of miners to choose from - no need for me to run Easyminer :-)

roy

Wow - bitcoin mining is obviously populated by far more sensible people than the rest of the IT industry :-)

I agree with you entirely - sadly I get the impression that far too much of the broader (non-bitcoin) world largely regards curses apps as 60's legacy technology...

Which is bizarre, given that curses is a UNIX technology and therefore didn't even exist in the 60's :-)

roy

Yes - it's just that there seem to be a lot of people out there who seem to want/need a GUI


Great news - thanks for the info.

roy

I'm sorry, I haven't been following all the drama closely - so can I ask a simple question, please?

Is there any expectation that I will be able to mine with an SC Single on a Linux netbook that's not running X?  I know I can do that with an FPFA Single using cgminer, but is there now some suggestion that that solution won't work with the SC?  And Easyminer is Windows-only,  right?

Is BFGminer supporting the SC?  If not, what other Linux non-GUI miners are there that will/might support SC hardware?

Do I need to work on the basis of having a Window box available when my SC ships?

roy

Peripherally related, but one of the interesting effects of the various interrelated ponzi schemes seems to have been that it helped support the inflated the rates people are/were willing to pay for loans.

Effectively, I infer, there was a carry trade where people borrowed at usarious interest rates only to invest in ponzi schemes at even higher returns.  Of course, this may not be the only effect - these are unsecured loans, often short term - much like payday loans which charge enourmous interest in the fiat world, too.  But it will be interesting to see what happens as the carry trade unwinds, and lenders find themselves with non-performing loans.

Will %/week remain the norm for BTC loans?  We will see....

roy

I think it's reasonable to assume that there will be many hundreds of SC's on order, not just tens.  Hell, there are certain to be a few mini-rigs on order, too.

Making even half of the prediction based on current difficulty is entirely implausible.  Apart from the fact that difficulty is ramping up rapidly even without ASICs, and the fact that the block reward will drop to BTC 25 soon, ASICs are going to make difficulty sky-rocket.  The people who get in the first batch might do well, but mining is not (and never has been) a guaranteed way to make free money. 

If you're lucky you'll make some money - if you're unlucky you'll never get back your initial outlay.  No one knows what will happen - it's a gamble.

roy