I was really surprised about that as well. It was just too much pressure even for him. If he won he would have golden slam plus most grand slam titles ever all in single match. I can't even imagine those levels of pressure and expectations and I guess it surprised even Djokovic.

When you see players struggling to close out the winning match so often it sometimes looks ridiculous for us viewers but so many have those pressure problems so they are obviously real enough That is why Djokovic and Nadal are so good, they are mentally the strongest players on the tour and that gives consistency. If some of this newer guys like Medvedev, Zverev, Tsitsipas, Thiem... had that mental resilience and fighting spirit they would be topping the chart very soon.

I am not convinced, I still think he is bad in mental aspect. He has awful body language and bitches about all kind of details when results are not favoring him. That is part that irritates me most, he complained about everything yesterday to the ref "somebody took a picture", "somebody sneezed before my serve", "they are too loud"....

My thesis is that he has improved his game so much that his mental aspect does not get tested in 99% of matches. That is why I am waiting for his match against Djokovic or maybe even this back in form Nadal will be enough to show me the real state of things.

I was smarter this time around and tuned in on both matches just before penalties. There was a couple of strange decisions there, I guess players just have the need to do something to stand out. When it works, everything is peachy, when it does not, well Ivory Coast goes home.

We had one step penalty - missed, panenka - scored, all kinds of funny runs with small steps and what not with mixed results.

I feel like this comeback was more a case of Felix AA not being able to keep playing on extra high level than Medvedev upping his game.

Barty against Keys in a couple of minutes. For me this is a final before final and whoever wins here will take the AO home. This will be a clash of two styles and whichever comes on top will be the winner. I took 4.5 handicap on Keys, wanted 5.5 but there isn't one in offer on Sportsbet unfortunately.

And now time for most depressing fact if you are France supporter......Denmark decided to play without their best players Hansen and Gisdol and they are still destroying them. To be fair France keepers are awful, so far they have 1 save combined. Bookies are getting skittish they are offering me more than my initial stake to cash out the draw I can already smell it, a goal for the draw with few seconds on the clock to spare.


Edit: So close, I feel bad for Iceland, they deserved it more than France this time around.

I said it will be a game of 45 goals, it finished with 47 or 48 I don't remember exactly but under/over line was set at 53.5 for 1.9 odds and lowest under you could have taken was 51.5 @2.2 unless there is somebody out there offering even more choices (maybe Pinnacle) which would again almost certainly be above the actual goals scored. So basically all under pre match bets you could have made would be winning ones, even all team under bets, or half time under bets.

My advice was simply to take all under markets whenever you find them.

Yep, Superbru takes into account result after extra time in knockout stages. A bit strange until you get used to it. Suppose it is the same for AFCON, can't find it now, but it is stated somewhere on the site. It was like that for Champions League, EURO, COPA.... so I am 99% sure it is here as well.

Well I have a child, but today was wife turn to take her to daycare on the way to her work No job at the moment but I have interview for one a couple of hours later, so morning just for myself. And still can't say that I got much sleep since I watched Collins until 3 in the morning, have to earn money somewhere.

Medvedev looks sharp from the get go.

a) 23 b) 2:45

Players are just warming up so I hope it is still ok. If not, I understand

I expected much more from Sinner in this match, I just got up and expected to find them 1:1 in sets or something like that and it was all finished. Tsitispas found his form at right time and he always was a player for big stage. Ah, well gonna have to watch Medvedev.

WTA started to be much more interesting. We have a couple of heavy hitters now on the tour and it is much more fun to watch now. Watched Collins yesterday and he was hitting some great shots against Cornet.

Have I stayed alone in this topic? This starts to feel like monologue and I am really sorry for that since handball championship is a good chance to take some money from the bookies. Only thing keeping me in the green while AFCON destroys my multi bets.

I hope somebody took under in this game. It really was free money. While we are on the subject, did you guys see how Norway lost? They had +4 few minutes before the end  

@buwaytress
Hey man, I have one tip just for you today.
Denmark-France draw @8.5, to be played after Iceland wins their game. If Iceland does not win then this game is not important and it is better to play over or skip. If Iceland wins and they should France needs a point to pass trough, Denmark needs a point to pass as winner of the group. Could very easy finish as low scoring draw.

This is getting ridiculous. Senegal with 2 players more and 0 shots on target. Come on, grow a pair, and play to score a goal.

Maybe if these other guys get 2 more reds it will be enough for victory in extra time  

That was logical assumption but Nadal experience and calm proved to be enough in the 5th set. Shapovalov was a bit rash and gifted an easy break and later on Nadal did not even give him a chance after confirming that break. It was last game where Shapovalov had chance to turn it around once more.

Berrettini looks too good for Monfils at the moment. Basically both guys are holding serves until Monfils gets a bad game. Feel like there could be some drama in this one if only Monfils manages to get one break. I expected another 5 setter here.

Did not watch the game but I can't believe they were that close with 10 man and without a goal keeper. Obviously the guy that took the position was at least somewhat competent as goal keeper. Any comments if somebody actually watched the game?

How do you know he is contradicting himself? I tried to read that post several times and got nothing except a headache If I remembered to make this topic as self edited I would have nuked the post and spared the rest of you from the pain of reading it.

That is actually not so true since we have some connected costs. You don't want to play there
* 5% manipulative costs, this gets deducted from every stake instead incorporated in bookie margin. This is the reason why I always have "better odds" there
* 10% tax on every winning ticket. And this is the reason why I am usually not betting there, not possible to be in profit in long run

That is why I am always using sportsbet odds when writing my tips and I explicitly mention it is local fiat bookie when checking something like this. When I have the time and will I actually calculate proper fiat odds.

But they have the best UI interface I ever used and I am always using them to find my games and markets. Maybe I just got so used to it.

Where are you checking those odds buwaytress? I just checked on Sportsbet and they have it @25, with boost almost 27. Double from what you have seen. I can get @35 in my local bookie but only if I play 6x multi. So I am considering playing something like 1EUR for 1M EUR

Bump.

Some new games today and couple of tips from my side.
Iceland ML against Croatia @1.45, Iceland was great this tournamnet, we have more than half of our first team with covid and nothing to play for. Good tip is also Iceland -2.5 @1.95 but that is much riskier
Why is Denmark such favorite against Netherlands that I can take -12.5 handicap on Netherlands @1.5? I guess that is due to past H2H but this is a new team and they played very well this tournament. I am taking it and hoping there is not some news where all main Dutch players have covid.

WTF is set tennis? Feel like I am some opportunity here Is that something simulated? I see the names which are parody on know tennis players.

Congrats to that guy on the big win. I just hope AFCON ends soon since it is kicking me hard in the bank. Thank god we have handball to offset those looses.

Premier League is a big one, most players are on that one and that is the only one with official prizes as far as I know. Also helps that Premier League finishes their games in afternoon and has no evening fixtures.

Anyway I believe this is my first yellow cap across all pools this season. Suck it losers 

Winners of last challenge:
icopress - 1 mBTC free bet (5 correct)
Trofo - 0.5 m BTC free (4 correct, tie breaker, no goal higher minute wins as always)

We have international break this week so a pause in this competition.