The top of the next bubble would peak around 100,000 USD/XBT at around end of September 2014 (6 months from now).
It is possible. The final parabolic ascent of the bubble goes as quickly as 100+% per week and the very top can be 50-100% per day (or as in 2013-11-18 in China: +133% in the final day). If we steadily rise to $3000 in the following 5 months, and then rise +100% for 4 weeks, and the final day is again +100%, then we are at $100,000. What has happened before, can happen again, and - I don't know why - but with Bitcoin I have the feeling that the probability of something repeating is higher than random. I just bought a castle with the money I earned by assuming that the 11/2013 bubble will be similar to 4/2013 bubble, which it was. The image (BiscoinWisdom: MtGox 3 days log chart (background and faded, timescale on top) vs Bitstamp 3 days log chart (front, timescale at the bottom), merged with a simple photoshop resize) simply shows that the shape of the two 2013 bubbles is quite the same than the two pre-bubbles of 2011 that ended in the superbubble of Jun 2012.
The previous superbubble was in Jun 2011 (instead of -12), which is why some of us don't understand your chart. So the possibility of a new superbubble in 2014 exists.
I don't know the probability (nobody, in fact), but the possibility exists.
The probability might be quite high, because everybody knows about Bitcoin now and the bubble is nothing else but a self-reinforcing feedback loop, and we have already seen similar behavior. |
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If you had an amount waiting to be invested in BTC, would you invest 100% of it right now or try to go by bits and cost-average for the case of a new bottom lower ?
I would check that I don't buy immediately after an intraday $20 jump but in general the answer is: YES. |
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I want a Klein bottle. There is a stock of 1000 waiwai on the wampum market. It is not moving. It is bidless. But they travel well by air, so I take one waiwai from the stock, by buying it on the market. The market moves against me. I.e. the value of one waiwai increases. I sent one waiwai to Alice by European swallow to pay for a Klein bottle. Alice wants wampum, so she sells the waiwai on the wampum/waiwai market. The market moves against her. I.e. the value of one waiwai decreases. Net impact on waiwai/wampum: Zen.
Youtube videos of my Klein bottle go viral. 1100 teenage girls in Uruguay want Klein bottles, at various times, 100 each day. As more and more school girls trade wampum for waiwai, the stock of waiwai declines, the cost in wampum increases. 100 waiwai are held by pidgeons. Alice takes the waiwai from the pidgeons and sells them for wampum the next day, but by that time 100 more Uruguayan school girls have pidgeons in the air. For 11 days, the stock of waiwai on the wampum market is reduced by 10%. Uruguayans 101 to 1100 pay 20% more for the waiwai, and Alice gets 118% as much wampum for her Klein bottles as she would have were the waiwai rates constant. If Alice's ten cousins start marketing their Klein bottles to Moldovan gigolos, whose pidgeons are twice as slow, those transactions will remove twenty times as much waiwai from the supply/demand balance on the wampum markets, and the price will rise confoundedly. The result will be a waiwai bubble.
PQ=MV, the value of the money stock is M, denominated in PQ/V. Increasing V decreases M. Increasing the number of times a waiwai can flip during a fortnight, say by using African swallows instead of pidgeons, will increase laden air speed, thus decreasing the wampum per waiwai.
Using bitpay keeps BTC in the air. That creates a churning marginal demand which decreases the supply on the fiat market. If you buy immediately before spending, and the merchant takes fiat, then the time in the air is small. If you buy in anticipation, V decreases, and the effective air time, from the point of view of the exchange market, is quite long. Using bitpay also adds to the bid and to the ask on the market, thus increasing liquidity, which in turn makes bitcoin marginally more efficient (less slippage) and less risky (as liquidity is available when it is needed).
If everyone makes a different color of Klein bottle, and everyone wants to collect the whole set, then there are N^2 pidgeon flights which need to occur. The first pidgeon reduced the stock of waiwai by a factor of 0.999. The second person, by a factor of 0.998, the n^2 person by a factor of 1-0.001*n^2. As a result the cost of a waiwai rises by a factor of k*e^(n^2).
I want some of that stuff that makes you think clearly  Quick TA update: - 6H candle color/volume: one green with high volume, awaiting for more which confirms the bottom of March 31, conclusion: hopeful - Bid/ask strengh at market: slippage to sell 5k: $32, slippage to buy: $98, conclusion: explosive upside potential - Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.291 log units. The trendline is at $932 and rising $7 per day, conclusion: rock bottom - Sentiment: last week was quite extreme in fear, fud and bearishness, conclusion: supports that the bottom is behind us, deceitful - Prognosis: intact from yesterday I will perhaps start to publish a "rpietila we will hit $X never again" indicator, which is my tender for a binary bet where I take the side that it will "never" go that low again (in practice like 3-6 months because I want to collect the winnings). That allows the "pay up or shut up" commenters to actually pay up if they thing bitcoin is going down and not ridicule. Similarly if I'm bearish myself, I could start to offer bet that "it will certainly go that low". I need to check the legal structuring and don't anticipate to actually make many bets but a number gives more accountability than hazy predictions. Well anyway today I am about to play Dominion whole day with my friend and tomorrow go to the castle where I close all connections and just enjoy the countryside and the planning meetings with county officials, building managers and such. |
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Which graph can you point me to for the 5.25-year exponential trend line?
https://i.imgur.com/ycT9ulP.png  |
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LOL, the moderation did not seem to be too necessary as forum is mostly down today  There is emerging evidence of a green candle (6h), which is with a higher volume that the nearby red ones. If we get more of these in the following 2-3 days, it might add to the conviction that we just passed the bottom. Though volume can be faked. |
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(The article is from the beginning of 2013-11-11, so almost a complete boom-bust cycle ago). I don't see the evil here. Everybody is free to liquidate their investment or use bitcoin as a currency, or do both. Money has different functions, among which the important ones are: Store of value
If you have a wealth management plan (I had ever since I made my first FIM 10,000, and it has been very elaborate since EUR 40,000), you allocate your assets to different categories that serve different purposes and provide upside and security in different scenarios. What you use as payment is completely different, although it is usually practical to have at least a small balance in the currencies you transact with. Means of paymentPayment amounts are quoted in different currencies and you can typically pay in any currency with the use of conversion, which may be automatic or manual. What you own does not determine your means of transaction, unless it is a very big one in which case it might carry additional liquidity, tax or hassle considerations. You are free to use whatever currency as your unit of accounting, regardless of the country's fiat, or the allocation of your assets. Thus, the rise in the use of something as a quote currency or a transaction currency, can at most be irrelevant to its value, but typically is positive, and the following statement The more success Bitpay has, the worse for Bitcoin. Because Bitpay is all about liquidating BTC from investors (not bringing in proportionally new customers to the ecosystem).
is absurd and wrong. Bitcoin is pointed down now and it will be a vicious cycle that feeds on itself. It is structural and we have to go down and restart from a low equilibrium.
It is impossible to be 100% certain of anything. But a tendency in your writings seems to be that once you recognize something that in your assessment is a threat to Bitcoin, it means that the price action should follow immediately following your enlightenment. Since the Bitcoin economy is composed of perhaps a million actors, with many holding significant Bitcoin and/or fiat balances, your individual timing in understanding matters is not actually that important. The beauty of the 5.25-year trendline with exponential fit (R^2=0.93 which is pretty darn good) is that it takes into account every worry of every person who has ever owned or not owned bitcoins. I put more weight on that than the individual worries of a single person. It almost sounds like that you are first time experiencing a major low in bitcoin exchange rate. |
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Moderator action - this thread is now proceeding at a rate of 200+ posts per day and it affects readability.
I will impose a 10 posts per 24 hours limit on everyone, which lets everyone decide for themselves which posts are most important.
For those with an account less than 6 months old, the limit is 3 posts per 24 hours.
Although I like the high level of discussion, there is a certain amount of repetition here. This measure allows us to take some time off reading and writing to this thread, makes it easier for the lurkers to be up-to-date, and is not intended to lessen the quality at all.
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I sold all. Game over.
BINGO! I work like a doctor day and night, trying to prevent it, but still - sometimes the patient dies. It is sad.  |
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So Risto, What are your feelings at the moment? I assume now is a great time to buy. When do you think the next rally will take place and what is your estimation on when we will reach the next ATH? What do you think the next ATH will be? I was thinking that I was surprised, yet again, that you were right about how the price was too high and that we would correct down to $400 or so. Yet here we are. When do we just shut up and stop questioning you?  - I think it is much more probable (70%) that 400 will hold vs. not. Even if it goes lower, it does not change anything except that price is better for buyers and worse for sellers. There is still exactly the same number of bitcoins in the market and the viability of the technology is exactly the same. - Yes, it is a great time to buy. If you are thinking of buying bitcoins, you should do it now. Even if you were not thinking, the price is good. - The tribulation is likely over in a week, at most the sub-500 prices persist until past April 15 (tax sales). In the end of the month we are definitely over 500, probably about at 600. - We are now at -0.3 log-units in the long term trendline. This situation will persist until the next uptrend launches. Note that the trendline ascends 23% per month and it drags the price up with it. - After about 2-3 months, we are near 1000 and there is a hurdle to get over it. It succeeds and the rally is ignited, catapulting us to a new ATH of 3000-7000 in July-August. From taking the old ATH of 1163 to making the new, it is only 20-40 days. Always happy to help |
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I believe you are too preoccupied with USD. The feedback loop of (lower USD price -> less users -> even lower price) has never before held true with Bitcoin, and I have no reason to believe it would now.
What about 2011? In between 7-11/2011, the number of non-dust addresses grew by 30%. Even if we assume that there is such a negative feedback loop, 2011 was a proof that it was reversed and did not self-immolate. So far we have one vicious bear market that was reversed, and 5 years of gains. My theory is that Bitcoin has a self-reinforcing positive loop which will eventually consume fiat totally, and all the bear markets are temporary. If you say otherwise, the burden of proof is on you because such an assertion is not supported by neither history nor reason. |
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Interesting points, but: What I notice about the July 2013 capitulation is some very high volume (relative to the time) around the days prior to and after the final low. In contrast, the volume around the present low has been in contrast, average and the most notable trades have been large scale dumps, with the price rising on much lower volume. I tried to confirm this in different resolutions, and found that in 6-hour chart it is true that as long as the bottom was not in, the high volume candles were red, and green candles had lower volume. After it turned, it was the opposite. Until so far, we are in the red volume mode. What I have said earlier today that I give 168 hours for this to change. When the volume confirms the tide change, we are already so high that there is a risk for a short-term pullback. In general I don't understand momentum trading, perhaps that is why. My idea is to buy low and sell high. I don't want to attack momentum traders, if they make money it's fine. the panic buyers $500-$550........and then who is buying? Nobody? Well guess what happens next amongst a back drop of hoardes of stolen coins and arbitrage taking and USD cashing out Chinese?
After a bottom it goes up. We've seen this like.. 7 times now in Bitcoin's history. 99.95% don't own bitcoins. Hundreds of millions have now heard about them, mostly negative. It takes 12-24 months for them to buy. The first 1% of them is the next 500% of Bitcoin adoption, the ones who lift the price to $5,000 before leaves fall from the trees. If 5 million people invest $1,000 per person, they can buy 10 million bitcoins. That absorbs all the lonely Chinese and stolen coins, like many times before. There is nothing new in Bitcoin. Everything has happened before. It is a fractal. Before I even bought, it was explained to me. If Bitcoin swings strongly upwards from the $400 zone, but fails to break and confirm itself beyond the long term down trend, I doubt that the market will waste much time in deciding Bitcoin's fate. There will be no doubts and a race to take profits/cut losses. How would support at and above $380 be if such a scenario were to play out, and lets face it, it easily could. Hate to say it but what Bitcoin probably needs to avoid an inevitable slide below $380 is some kind of isolated non USD economic crisis, and a bit of good old capital flight.......which is what I have come to believe Bitcoin was designed for in the first place (I have gone from being a libertarian 'believer' to having the view that Bitcoin is most likely a US intelligence agency project) .
Of course this is possible and some EW theorists believe it but I give higher odds for staying above 400 and therefore making a solid quadruple bottom going back to November, with ascending lows. I believe you are too preoccupied with USD. The feedback loop of (lower USD price -> less users -> even lower price) has never before held true with Bitcoin, and I have no reason to believe it would now. There are so many reasons for increasing adoption, which inevitably leads to increased price that it is foolish to bet against it. |
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I don't see enough capitulation yet. Risto needs to buy too high first. Now I see that you need sleep. I have as many bitcoins now as I had a year ago, but bought a castle and have sizable fiat reserves with the profits. "buying too high" can only attributed to my name if the speaker does not see the picture |
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My daily dataset that I use at home is currently showing: trendprice = 10^ (0,003066x - 2,904980) R^2 = 0,928955. I think the R term is pretty cool for a 5.25 year dataset spanning over 6 decades (ADD: of prices, LOL) |
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A wallet that tracks your fiat cost base is important to develop so that U.S. people can pay taxes, but "discussion" about it among people who don't have the capability to make it (not to say it is difficult because it is a standard requirement for enterprise accounting since 1800s) is moot.
The issue is not just record keeping and calculation, but also planning and timing. The timing on planning interferes with the timing-fungibility of money. This is one of the reasons why investments are not money. He missed the point. If everyone has to factor the timing of tax planning into the timing of spends, then money sometimes loses the main reason it existed, which was to remove the gridlock caused by barter due to mismatches of the timing of what trading parties wanted to trade. For example, you want to buy that $1000 item, but this would move you into a higher tax bracket for the year, so you must wait until after Dec. 31. You set up your wallet software such that it automatically spends the last earned coins, which makes it a wash generally (or yields a small gain for which you need to pay taxes and be happy that you get to keep about 60-90% of the purchasing power that would have been 100% lost to inflation in the case you had been using USD instead of Bitcoin). This is similar to using currency. If you are spending more than you earn, then your wallet spends the coins that were accumulated earlier, in which case you suffer a larger tax hit. This is similar to selling your investments for profit, and paying taxes. Can someone else explain why this is the end of Bitcoin because I fail to see it? |
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Some people argue that price always moves towards the deepest Wall on the order book, I would suggest that it is entirely dependent on the situation in the market at the specific time.
Sure. As we are now at the bottom, the only ones who sell at this price are panickers. If you wanted to sell in an orderly way, there was plenty of time in December-January. This makes me forecast that price has an explosive upside potential, or at least the potential for explosive upside is higher than bloodbath. With that said, what large scale buyer of Bitcoin is going to push the price up over $100 with so many fretting bag-holders around desperate for a chance to cut losses? Who wants to make a collective $2.25 million investment only to see the nominal value of this investment nose dive 10% within the next day of trading?
When I bought bitcoins the first time, it fell to $2 next week. I was hardly irritated at all because I only invested what I could lose. I don't buy the bagholders argument at all. According to my calculations in all my threads, the actual number of bitcoins traded is small, and pigs don't have much money to play with. If I was in charge of a large entity trying to accumulate bitcoins, I would be grateful for every day I can add to my holdings regardless of whether it happens at 400 or 500. Don't get too preoccupied with USD price of stuff. That can go up or vanish in an instant, and the number of USD themselves fluctuate. Bitcoin game is about bitcoins, not USD. The latter is a vehicle for earning more bitcoins, not vice versa. I would suggest that there is a tint of emotion and defensiveness in your posts that isn't normally there. I am not saying this to try and wind you up, I am saying it because I notice it.
You are right, I know my emotions. But I am rejoicing in it, because I felt exactly this same after I proclaimed myself bear November 20th. Everyone ridiculed me. It did go up for 10 more days, which was the ATH. I was overturned for a brief moment and did not make a killing with the top, like I could have, if I had just stayed in my analysis and acted on it. All the time since December, until Feb 25th, I was having about that much money in bids in Bitstamp. For 6 weeks, they were about 10% of the visible orderbook between 400-800. All the time, I was wanting for Bitcoin price to go... up?
I would suggest that these buy-in tranches are structured in such a way where the stinging ones that are triggered way above 'the bottom' can and will be sold back into market at break even or profit. They range deep enough, that should they all be triggered, then it would have to be some kind of flash crash where a violent rebound is nearly always guaranteed. Cos it is on Bitstamp, chances are these bids can be taken at face value however....Bitfinex, now that would be another matter entirely. It is an excellent time to make daytrade gains, if you are on top of it. There is volatility, the general direction of the market is clear (up - no matter what you say), there is volume, and percentagewise the rise from 400 to 600 is a cool 50%, unlike 1000->1200 which is only 20%. The last capitulation could very well happen again. |
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What is to be gained by denying the current issues we are presented with. (and I'm talking as a 'community' rather than personal or individual gain.)
I repeat: there are no new issues. It is a common scare-tactic to raise some evergreen issues when it is important to fool the newcomers. Therefore "presented with" reveals you agenda pretty well  A wallet that tracks your fiat cost base is important to develop so that U.S. people can pay taxes, but "discussion" about it among people who don't have the capability to make it (not to say it is difficult because it is a standard requirement for enterprise accounting since 1800s) is moot. I think the various adoption metrics that eg. AnonyMint has brought up are interesting and important. I think that Bid/Ask ratio is only relevant in the region where you may actually get bitten by a market order (let's say 5,000 coins). Anyone can load coins to 700+ region to supposedly scare people away but only fools and trolls are deceived. 5,000 coins takes the price lower by $36 and higher by $104 as of now. I think it tells the obvious. |
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14:10 - BID: 249.84000000 BTC @ $ 379.21 | USDSUM = $ 94741.83
14:10 - BID: 249.84000000 BTC @ $ 384.21 | USDSUM = $ 95991.03
14:10 - BID: 249.84000000 BTC @ $ 389.21 | USDSUM = $ 97240.23
14:10 - BID: 249.84000000 BTC @ $ 394.21 | USDSUM = $ 98489.43
14:10 - BID: 249.84000000 BTC @ $ 399.21 | USDSUM = $ 99738.63
14:10 - BID: 249.84000000 BTC @ $ 404.21 | USDSUM = $ 100987.83
14:10 - BID: 249.84000000 BTC @ $ 409.21 | USDSUM = $ 102237.03
14:10 - BID: 249.84000000 BTC @ $ 414.21 | USDSUM = $ 103486.23
14:10 - BID: 249.84000000 BTC @ $ 419.21 | USDSUM = $ 104735.43
14:10 - BID: 249.84000000 BTC @ $ 424.21 | USDSUM = $ 105984.63
14:10 - BID: 249.84000000 BTC @ $ 429.21 | USDSUM = $ 107233.83
14:10 - BID: 249.84000000 BTC @ $ 434.21 | USDSUM = $ 108483.03
14:10 + BID: 246.60000000 BTC @ $ 446.02 | USDSUM = $ 109988.53
14:10 + BID: 246.60000000 BTC @ $ 441.02 | USDSUM = $ 108755.53
14:10 + BID: 246.60000000 BTC @ $ 436.02 | USDSUM = $ 107522.53
14:10 + BID: 246.60000000 BTC @ $ 431.02 | USDSUM = $ 106289.53
14:10 + BID: 246.60000000 BTC @ $ 426.02 | USDSUM = $ 105056.53
14:10 + BID: 246.60000000 BTC @ $ 421.02 | USDSUM = $ 103823.53
14:10 + BID: 246.60000000 BTC @ $ 416.02 | USDSUM = $ 102590.53
14:10 + BID: 246.60000000 BTC @ $ 411.02 | USDSUM = $ 101357.53
14:10 + BID: 246.60000000 BTC @ $ 406.02 | USDSUM = $ 100124.53
14:10 + BID: 246.60000000 BTC @ $ 401.02 | USDSUM = $ 98891.53
14:10 + BID: 246.60000000 BTC @ $ 396.02 | USDSUM = $ 97658.53
14:10 + BID: 246.60000000 BTC @ $ 391.02 | USDSUM = $ 96425.53
14:10 + BID: 246.60000000 BTC @ $ 386.02 | USDSUM = $ 95192.53
14:10 + BID: 246.60000000 BTC @ $ 381.02 | USDSUM = $ 93959.53
Someone really doesn't want Bitcoin to go down, huh? All the time since December, until Feb 25th, I was having about that much money in bids in Bitstamp. For 6 weeks, they were about 10% of the visible orderbook between 400-800. All the time, I was wanting for Bitcoin price to go... up?  These bids are not mine but if I place bids, they will look very similar with the difference being decimal .12  |
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$4.8 million from 445->600
$5.0 million from 445->400
BId Sum 11M Ask Sum 30M # of bitcoins = 12,000,000 # of USD = 12,000,000,000,000 |
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I also don't consider this to be anything spectacular and in no way detrimental to Bitcoin. It is just this time because price is down and people panicking which makes the conversation tense.
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$4.8 million from 445->600
$5.0 million from 445->400
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