LOL, the moderation did not seem to be too necessary as forum is mostly down today

There is emerging evidence of a green candle (6h), which is with a higher volume that the nearby red ones. If we get more of these in the following 2-3 days, it might add to the conviction that we just passed the bottom. Though volume can be faked.

(The article is from the beginning of 2013-11-11, so almost a complete boom-bust cycle ago). I don't see the evil here. Everybody is free to liquidate their investment or use bitcoin as a currency, or do both.

Money has different functions, among which the important ones are:

Store of value

If you have a wealth management plan (I had ever since I made my first FIM 10,000, and it has been very elaborate since EUR 40,000), you allocate your assets to different categories that serve different purposes and provide upside and security in different scenarios. What you use as payment is completely different, although it is usually practical to have at least a small balance in the currencies you transact with.

Means of payment

Payment amounts are quoted in different currencies and you can typically pay in any currency with the use of conversion, which may be automatic or manual. What you own does not determine your means of transaction, unless it is a very big one in which case it might carry additional liquidity, tax or hassle considerations. You are free to use whatever currency as your unit of accounting, regardless of the country's fiat, or the allocation of your assets.

Thus, the rise in the use of something as a quote currency or a transaction currency, can at most be irrelevant to its value, but typically is positive, and the following statement


is absurd and wrong.


It is impossible to be 100% certain of anything. But a tendency in your writings seems to be that once you recognize something that in your assessment is a threat to Bitcoin, it means that the price action should follow immediately following your enlightenment. Since the Bitcoin economy is composed of perhaps a million actors, with many holding significant Bitcoin and/or fiat balances, your individual timing in understanding matters is not actually that important.

The beauty of the 5.25-year trendline with exponential fit (R^2=0.93 which is pretty darn good) is that it takes into account every worry of every person who has ever owned or not owned bitcoins. I put more weight on that than the individual worries of a single person.

It almost sounds like that you are first time experiencing a major low in bitcoin exchange rate.

Moderator action - this thread is now proceeding at a rate of 200+ posts per day and it affects readability.

I will impose a 10 posts per 24 hours limit on everyone, which lets everyone decide for themselves which posts are most important.

For those with an account less than 6 months old, the limit is 3 posts per 24 hours.

Although I like the high level of discussion, there is a certain amount of repetition here. This measure allows us to take some time off reading and writing to this thread, makes it easier for the lurkers to be up-to-date, and is not intended to lessen the quality at all.

I work like a doctor day and night, trying to prevent it, but still - sometimes the patient dies. It is sad.

- I think it is much more probable (70%) that 400 will hold vs. not. Even if it goes lower, it does not change anything except that price is better for buyers and worse for sellers. There is still exactly the same number of bitcoins in the market and the viability of the technology is exactly the same.
- Yes, it is a great time to buy. If you are thinking of buying bitcoins, you should do it now. Even if you were not thinking, the price is good.
- The tribulation is likely over in a week, at most the sub-500 prices persist until past April 15 (tax sales). In the end of the month we are definitely over 500, probably about at 600.
- We are now at -0.3 log-units in the long term trendline. This situation will persist until the next uptrend launches. Note that the trendline ascends 23% per month and it drags the price up with it.
- After about 2-3 months, we are near 1000 and there is a hurdle to get over it. It succeeds and the rally is ignited, catapulting us to a new ATH of 3000-7000 in July-August. From taking the old ATH of 1163 to making the new, it is only 20-40 days.

Always happy to help

In between 7-11/2011, the number of non-dust addresses grew by 30%.

Even if we assume that there is such a negative feedback loop, 2011 was a proof that it was reversed and did not self-immolate.

So far we have one vicious bear market that was reversed, and 5 years of gains. My theory is that Bitcoin has a self-reinforcing positive loop which will eventually consume fiat totally, and all the bear markets are temporary. If you say otherwise, the burden of proof is on you because such an assertion is not supported by neither history nor reason.

I tried to confirm this in different resolutions, and found that in 6-hour chart it is true that as long as the bottom was not in, the high volume candles were red, and green candles had lower volume. After it turned, it was the opposite.

Until so far, we are in the red volume mode. What I have said earlier today that I give 168 hours for this to change. When the volume confirms the tide change, we are already so high that there is a risk for a short-term pullback.

In general I don't understand momentum trading, perhaps that is why. My idea is to buy low and sell high. I don't want to attack momentum traders, if they make money it's fine.


After a bottom it goes up. We've seen this like.. 7 times now in Bitcoin's history. 99.95% don't own bitcoins. Hundreds of millions have now heard about them, mostly negative. It takes 12-24 months for them to buy. The first 1% of them is the next 500% of Bitcoin adoption, the ones who lift the price to $5,000 before leaves fall from the trees. If 5 million people invest $1,000 per person, they can buy 10 million bitcoins. That absorbs all the lonely Chinese and stolen coins, like many times before. There is nothing new in Bitcoin. Everything has happened before. It is a fractal. Before I even bought, it was explained to me.


Of course this is possible and some EW theorists believe it but I give higher odds for staying above 400 and therefore making a solid quadruple bottom going back to November, with ascending lows.

I believe you are too preoccupied with USD. The feedback loop of (lower USD price -> less users -> even lower price) has never before held true with Bitcoin, and I have no reason to believe it would now. There are so many reasons for increasing adoption, which inevitably leads to increased price that it is foolish to bet against it.

Now I see that you need sleep. I have as many bitcoins now as I had a year ago, but bought a castle and have sizable fiat reserves with the profits. "buying too high" can only attributed to my name if the speaker does not see the picture  

My daily dataset that I use at home is currently showing:

trendprice = 10^ (0,003066x - 2,904980)

R^2 = 0,928955.

I think the R term is pretty cool for a 5.25 year dataset spanning over 6 decades (ADD: of prices, LOL)

You set up your wallet software such that it automatically spends the last earned coins, which makes it a wash generally (or yields a small gain for which you need to pay taxes and be happy that you get to keep about 60-90% of the purchasing power that would have been 100% lost to inflation in the case you had been using USD instead of Bitcoin). This is similar to using currency.

If you are spending more than you earn, then your wallet spends the coins that were accumulated earlier, in which case you suffer a larger tax hit. This is similar to selling your investments for profit, and paying taxes.

Can someone else explain why this is the end of Bitcoin because I fail to see it?

Sure. As we are now at the bottom, the only ones who sell at this price are panickers. If you wanted to sell in an orderly way, there was plenty of time in December-January. This makes me forecast that price has an explosive upside potential, or at least the potential for explosive upside is higher than bloodbath.


When I bought bitcoins the first time, it fell to $2 next week. I was hardly irritated at all because I only invested what I could lose.

I don't buy the bagholders argument at all. According to my calculations in all my threads, the actual number of bitcoins traded is small, and pigs don't have much money to play with. If I was in charge of a large entity trying to accumulate bitcoins, I would be grateful for every day I can add to my holdings regardless of whether it happens at 400 or 500.

Don't get too preoccupied with USD price of stuff. That can go up or vanish in an instant, and the number of USD themselves fluctuate. Bitcoin game is about bitcoins, not USD. The latter is a vehicle for earning more bitcoins, not vice versa.


You are right, I know my emotions. But I am rejoicing in it, because I felt exactly this same after I proclaimed myself bear November 20th. Everyone ridiculed me. It did go up for 10 more days, which was the ATH. I was overturned for a brief moment and did not make a killing with the top, like I could have, if I had just stayed in my analysis and acted on it.


It is an excellent time to make daytrade gains, if you are on top of it. There is volatility, the general direction of the market is clear (up - no matter what you say), there is volume, and percentagewise the rise from 400 to 600 is a cool 50%, unlike 1000->1200 which is only 20%.

The last capitulation could very well happen again.

I repeat: there are no new issues. It is a common scare-tactic to raise some evergreen issues when it is important to fool the newcomers.

Therefore "presented with" reveals you agenda pretty well  

A wallet that tracks your fiat cost base is important to develop so that U.S. people can pay taxes, but "discussion" about it among people who don't have the capability to make it (not to say it is difficult because it is a standard requirement for enterprise accounting since 1800s) is moot.

I think the various adoption metrics that eg. AnonyMint has brought up are interesting and important.

I think that Bid/Ask ratio is only relevant in the region where you may actually get bitten by a market order (let's say 5,000 coins). Anyone can load coins to 700+ region to supposedly scare people away but only fools and trolls are deceived.

5,000 coins takes the price lower by $36 and higher by $104 as of now. I think it tells the obvious.

All the time since December, until Feb 25th, I was having about that much money in bids in Bitstamp. For 6 weeks, they were about 10% of the visible orderbook between 400-800. All the time, I was wanting for Bitcoin price to go... up?

 

These bids are not mine but if I place bids, they will look very similar with the difference being decimal .12 

# of bitcoins = 12,000,000
# of USD = 12,000,000,000,000

I also don't consider this to be anything spectacular and in no way detrimental to Bitcoin. It is just this time because price is down and people panicking which makes the conversation tense.

$4.8 million from 445->600

$5.0 million from 445->400

I mean in a larger context. Something like "when the current pressure in the markets conclusively abates, then that marks the end of the capitulation process, during which the bottom has been formed so that the low point has probably been above the support at 375, and where this low will probably have been reached at most 1 week from now".

"probably" = "with somewhat greater probability than 50% (eg. 60-65%)"

This is not directed to you(si) but the ones who are too much in and are considering between selling and rope.

As you have seen, I am also lining up my funds that I did not believe I would need, but nevertheless are still there to buy bitcoins if the price goes to 420 and below.

For all: If you want to sell off-exchange (slight discount) PM me.

I am fed up with everybody panicking, and this is realistically a sign when the bottom is in. China "ban" is an absolute nonevent, it was around longer than you have had an account. Yes, I do recommend buying because this is the bottom, any questions?