rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[creekbore]

$4.8 million from 445->600

$5.0 million from 445->400

BId Sum 11M
Ask Sum 30M

# of bitcoins = 12,000,000
# of USD = 12,000,000,000,000

# of pixels in my monitor?

Meaningless obfuscation.

The bid/sum ratio is dreadful....I can't recall it ever being worse...even in 2011.

What is to be gained by denying the current issues we are presented with.  (and I'm talking as a 'community' rather than personal or individual gain.)

[creekbore]

@MatTheCat --- good post page back

[rpietila]

14:10 -  BID:     249.84000000  BTC   @   $ 379.21   |   USDSUM = $  94741.83
14:10 -  BID:     249.84000000  BTC   @   $ 384.21   |   USDSUM = $  95991.03
14:10 -  BID:     249.84000000  BTC   @   $ 389.21   |   USDSUM = $  97240.23
14:10 -  BID:     249.84000000  BTC   @   $ 394.21   |   USDSUM = $  98489.43
14:10 -  BID:     249.84000000  BTC   @   $ 399.21   |   USDSUM = $  99738.63
14:10 -  BID:     249.84000000  BTC   @   $ 404.21   |   USDSUM = $ 100987.83
14:10 -  BID:     249.84000000  BTC   @   $ 409.21   |   USDSUM = $ 102237.03
14:10 -  BID:     249.84000000  BTC   @   $ 414.21   |   USDSUM = $ 103486.23
14:10 -  BID:     249.84000000  BTC   @   $ 419.21   |   USDSUM = $ 104735.43
14:10 -  BID:     249.84000000  BTC   @   $ 424.21   |   USDSUM = $ 105984.63
14:10 -  BID:     249.84000000  BTC   @   $ 429.21   |   USDSUM = $ 107233.83
14:10 -  BID:     249.84000000  BTC   @   $ 434.21   |   USDSUM = $ 108483.03

14:10 +  BID:     246.60000000  BTC   @   $ 446.02   |   USDSUM = $ 109988.53
14:10 +  BID:     246.60000000  BTC   @   $ 441.02   |   USDSUM = $ 108755.53
14:10 +  BID:     246.60000000  BTC   @   $ 436.02   |   USDSUM = $ 107522.53
14:10 +  BID:     246.60000000  BTC   @   $ 431.02   |   USDSUM = $ 106289.53
14:10 +  BID:     246.60000000  BTC   @   $ 426.02   |   USDSUM = $ 105056.53
14:10 +  BID:     246.60000000  BTC   @   $ 421.02   |   USDSUM = $ 103823.53
14:10 +  BID:     246.60000000  BTC   @   $ 416.02   |   USDSUM = $ 102590.53
14:10 +  BID:     246.60000000  BTC   @   $ 411.02   |   USDSUM = $ 101357.53
14:10 +  BID:     246.60000000  BTC   @   $ 406.02   |   USDSUM = $ 100124.53
14:10 +  BID:     246.60000000  BTC   @   $ 401.02   |   USDSUM = $  98891.53
14:10 +  BID:     246.60000000  BTC   @   $ 396.02   |   USDSUM = $  97658.53
14:10 +  BID:     246.60000000  BTC   @   $ 391.02   |   USDSUM = $  96425.53
14:10 +  BID:     246.60000000  BTC   @   $ 386.02   |   USDSUM = $  95192.53
14:10 +  BID:     246.60000000  BTC   @   $ 381.02   |   USDSUM = $  93959.53

Someone really doesn't want Bitcoin to go down, huh?

All the time since December, until Feb 25th, I was having about that much money in bids in Bitstamp. For 6 weeks, they were about 10% of the visible orderbook between 400-800. All the time, I was wanting for Bitcoin price to go... up?

 

These bids are not mine but if I place bids, they will look very similar with the difference being decimal .12 

[aminorex]

got a hunch? buy a bunch.

Seems legit.

Wacked on crank? Buy the bank.

Full of dewt?  Lick a newt.

Yeah, method is confirmed reliable.

[aminorex]

$4.8 million from 445->600

$5.0 million from 445->400

BId Sum 11M
Ask Sum 30M

# of bitcoins = 12,000,000
# of USD = 12,000,000,000,000

# of pixels in my monitor?

Meaningless obfuscation.

The bid/sum ratio is dreadful....I can't recall it ever being worse...even in 2011.

What is to be gained by denying the current issues we are presented with.  (and I'm talking as a 'community' rather than personal or individual gain.)

 historical correlation between sum ratio and price is what?


Bids closer in are much more indicative of marginal bias.

[AnonyMint]

aminorex what did you think of my idea on prior page that the adoption is log-logistic as opposed to logistic?

[rpietila]

What is to be gained by denying the current issues we are presented with.  (and I'm talking as a 'community' rather than personal or individual gain.)

I repeat: there are no new issues. It is a common scare-tactic to raise some evergreen issues when it is important to fool the newcomers.

Therefore "presented with" reveals you agenda pretty well  

A wallet that tracks your fiat cost base is important to develop so that U.S. people can pay taxes, but "discussion" about it among people who don't have the capability to make it (not to say it is difficult because it is a standard requirement for enterprise accounting since 1800s) is moot.

I think the various adoption metrics that eg. AnonyMint has brought up are interesting and important.

I think that Bid/Ask ratio is only relevant in the region where you may actually get bitten by a market order (let's say 5,000 coins). Anyone can load coins to 700+ region to supposedly scare people away but only fools and trolls are deceived.

5,000 coins takes the price lower by $36 and higher by $104 as of now. I think it tells the obvious.

[Carra23]

Someone really doesn't want Bitcoin to go down, huh?

Look back in this thread for when I posted when those staggered bids were first added. She's been waiting patiently for the "market" to drop for quite a while and I guess her patience is running out. I don't think she is trying to keep the "market up", I believe she's an actual buyer.

Why 'she'?

[aminorex]

aminorex what did you think of my idea on prior page that the adoption is log-logistic as opposed to logistic?

Certainly reasonable on its face. Ultimately it depends on whether stake size is correlated or anticorrelated with adoption lag and conversion rate - keeping in mind that value is in marginal flow rather than in stock.  Should be a closed form exponential family solution set certainly.  I haven't done the math but plan to now that you point it out

[MatTheCat]

5,000 coins takes the price lower by $36 and higher by $104 as of now. I think it tells the obvious.

Last time I seen a situation like that was post $400 bottom. I bought in at $480, and as Bitcoin approached $550, there was some 5000K of Ask wall standing between spot price and $560, so I cashed in my coins. Literally 2 minutes later, a stream of massive bids pushed Bitcoin up to $570, and we know how things ran after that.

Some people argue that price always moves towards the deepest Wall on the order book, I would suggest that it is entirely dependent on the situation in the market at the specific time. With that said, what large scale buyer of Bitcoin is going to push the price up over $100 with so many fretting bag-holders around desperate for a chance to cut losses? Who wants to make a collective $2.25 million investment only to see the nominal value of this investment nose dive 10% within the next day of trading?

I would suggest that there is a tint of emotion and defensiveness in your posts that isn't normally there. I am not saying this to try and wind you up, I am saying it because I notice it.

All the time since December, until Feb 25th, I was having about that much money in bids in Bitstamp. For 6 weeks, they were about 10% of the visible orderbook between 400-800. All the time, I was wanting for Bitcoin price to go... up?

Yeah, of course I can't really disagree with your logic...I just find it hard to imagine someone being mad enough to throw that quantity of money at Bitcoin when it seems obvious that it is going down much further......but that is of course just my opinion. Perhaps better informed persons know differently.

I would suggest however that these buy-in tranches are structured in such a way where the stinging ones that are triggered way above 'the bottom' can and will be sold back into market at break even or profit. They range deep enough, that should they all be triggered, then it would have to be some kind of flash crash where a violent rebound is nearly always guaranteed. Cos it is on Bitstamp, chances are these bids can be taken at face value however....Bitfinex, now that would be another matter entirely.

Edit: Further on the same topic. There are surely a lot of vested interests already up to the eyeballs in Bitcoin who really really do not want to see Bitcoin fall much below the $380 support. Bitcoin is still a very light market when it comes to players with actual money. Perhaps these buy-ins represent some institution taking a position, or perhaps it really is a measured defense mechanism implemented by an existing Bitcoin billionaire or entrepreneur. As I describe, these tranches can serve to reinforce Bitcoin through a difficult time without the need for the buyer to take any real losses on the trades, unless an unforseeable avalanche occurs. it is certainly the case that with these Buy-ins taken out the picture (some 500 BTC per $10), that the Bid pressure on Stamp would be looking much weaker and much more of a cause for concern for nervous investors/holders. If I was really wanting to accumulate that amount of Bitcoins at those prices, I wouldn't set up a great big range of buy-in tranches that actively discourage the price from ever meeting them.

[AnonyMint]

A wallet that tracks your fiat cost base is important to develop so that U.S. people can pay taxes, but "discussion" about it among people who don't have the capability to make it (not to say it is difficult because it is a standard requirement for enterprise accounting since 1800s) is moot.

Did you not read the link I gave you upthread on that?

The issue is not just record keeping and calculation, but also planning and timing. The timing on planning interferes with the timing-fungibility of money. This is one of the reasons why investments are not money.

Here is the link again for you to read my short explanation:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=455141.msg5953000#msg5953000

[CoinCube]

[...] I see confiscation coming in 2016. So that is why I am analyzing [...]

I am so sorry to pollute Risto's thread with unsuitable words, but WTF ?!
What confiscation ? Who's confiscating what ?! Are we in the middle ages or bolshevik Russia _(CCCP)_ now ?
AnonyMint, would you please care to share your thoughts / analysis / sources on this one with us ?

The world economy is going down the drain due to the enormous debt build up. In order to prevent total chaos when the castle starts breaking apart governments will want to confiscate as much wealth as possible. They won't go down without a fight so to say. And their best fighting power is taxation of different sort. How far they go is the question. I don't think they would go to the obscene levels Anonymint speaks of (70%+ taxation) but who knows.

France is already taxing the wealthy at 75% even though everyone acknowledges it is not actually going to bring in much if any revenue (wealthy are leaving France). President Hollande has said the new tax is "symbolic" and designed to make a political statement that everyone should pay their fair share.

http://money.cnn.com/2013/12/30/news/economy/french-tax-75/

Nothing preventing that logic from marching right down the tax brackets first to the upper middle class and then the middle class.

[AnonyMint]

France is already taxing the wealthy at 75% even though everyone acknowledges it is not actually going to bring in much if any revenue (wealthy are leaving France).

It is the way to start the demand to tax externally to close all the places the wealthy can run to. G20 has already agreed to cooperate on this and NSA has signed on to providing them the data. I can provide citations.

And later they will be forced to just outright confiscate.

Btw, on the anonymity front, I blew up Zerocash and Darkcoin today:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=423348.msg5999317#msg5999317
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=421615.msg6001085#msg6001085

[creekbore]

What is to be gained by denying the current issues we are presented with.  (and I'm talking as a 'community' rather than personal or individual gain.)

I repeat: there are no new issues. It is a common scare-tactic to raise some evergreen issues when it is important to fool the newcomers.

Therefore "presented with" reveals you agenda pretty well 

A wallet that tracks your fiat cost base is important to develop so that U.S. people can pay taxes, but "discussion" about it among people who don't have the capability to make it (not to say it is difficult because it is a standard requirement for enterprise accounting since 1800s) is moot.

I think the various adoption metrics that eg. AnonyMint has brought up are interesting and important.

I think that Bid/Ask ratio is only relevant in the region where you may actually get bitten by a market order (let's say 5,000 coins). Anyone can load coins to 700+ region to supposedly scare people away but only fools and trolls are deceived.

5,000 coins takes the price lower by $36 and higher by $104 as of now. I think it tells the obvious.

Eh?  What agenda?

I'm talking about the fact that the news, satire programs, newspapers, magazines etc ridicule BTC.
I talk to people about BTC and they think I'm a crank.
The IRS statement, China's slow strangulation of BTC, Gox, the FUD surrounding NeoBee...the list is endless....all these things have happened first quarter....it's not reheated propaganda, its what is happening outside Mala Towers.

YOU have set yourself up as the self-appointed leadership of the BTC community with your exclusive forum and your BTC retreat.  But all you have to offer is advising newbs to keep buying.  Can you see how suspicious that looks.  The bid/sum ratio is dreadful, you can't dispute the numbers, yet you claim my quoting it measn I have an agenda.  Isn't this the Quality TA thread?

What I have invested in BTC wouldn't keep you in cigars.  But I have an agenda?

You bring up adoption metrics but I actually raised this issue -- most of the data available through blockchain suggest adoption is going very poorly.  But instead lets focus on a single set of data (increased BTC addresses) ...but I use a new address for withdrawals and deposits everytime I do a BTC tx.  I suspect many do the same, so this data is meaningless.  No-one comments on this.

Instead I get a page of n^p x p>x means everything is OK.  (And I have great respect for Aminorex and AnonyMint btw) But even if this is true (and thus far no-one has independently verified this), perhaps YOU (self-appointed leader etc etc) should try and explain how this does and will work in terms that the rest of us may understand, rather than ask us all to have 'faith'.  Faith has nothing to do with investment.

PS I noted your 'scale' of comments a few pages back and I think its pretty arrogant to assume that anyone who disagrees or questions you has some sort of personal axe to grind -- you seem like a pretty decent bloke, but if you want to be a 'leader' you need to allow people to challenge your views without dismissing them as having either an agenda or a personal vendetta.

Going to bed....I'll catch up tomorrow.

[rpietila]

Some people argue that price always moves towards the deepest Wall on the order book, I would suggest that it is entirely dependent on the situation in the market at the specific time.

Sure. As we are now at the bottom, the only ones who sell at this price are panickers. If you wanted to sell in an orderly way, there was plenty of time in December-January. This makes me forecast that price has an explosive upside potential, or at least the potential for explosive upside is higher than bloodbath.

With that said, what large scale buyer of Bitcoin is going to push the price up over $100 with so many fretting bag-holders around desperate for a chance to cut losses? Who wants to make a collective $2.25 million investment only to see the nominal value of this investment nose dive 10% within the next day of trading?

When I bought bitcoins the first time, it fell to $2 next week. I was hardly irritated at all because I only invested what I could lose.

I don't buy the bagholders argument at all. According to my calculations in all my threads, the actual number of bitcoins traded is small, and pigs don't have much money to play with. If I was in charge of a large entity trying to accumulate bitcoins, I would be grateful for every day I can add to my holdings regardless of whether it happens at 400 or 500.

Don't get too preoccupied with USD price of stuff. That can go up or vanish in an instant, and the number of USD themselves fluctuate. Bitcoin game is about bitcoins, not USD. The latter is a vehicle for earning more bitcoins, not vice versa.

I would suggest that there is a tint of emotion and defensiveness in your posts that isn't normally there. I am not saying this to try and wind you up, I am saying it because I notice it.

You are right, I know my emotions. But I am rejoicing in it, because I felt exactly this same after I proclaimed myself bear November 20th. Everyone ridiculed me. It did go up for 10 more days, which was the ATH. I was overturned for a brief moment and did not make a killing with the top, like I could have, if I had just stayed in my analysis and acted on it.

All the time since December, until Feb 25th, I was having about that much money in bids in Bitstamp. For 6 weeks, they were about 10% of the visible orderbook between 400-800. All the time, I was wanting for Bitcoin price to go... up?

I would suggest that these buy-in tranches are structured in such a way where the stinging ones that are triggered way above 'the bottom' can and will be sold back into market at break even or profit. They range deep enough, that should they all be triggered, then it would have to be some kind of flash crash where a violent rebound is nearly always guaranteed. Cos it is on Bitstamp, chances are these bids can be taken at face value however....Bitfinex, now that would be another matter entirely.

It is an excellent time to make daytrade gains, if you are on top of it. There is volatility, the general direction of the market is clear (up - no matter what you say), there is volume, and percentagewise the rise from 400 to 600 is a cool 50%, unlike 1000->1200 which is only 20%.

The last capitulation could very well happen again.

[AnonyMint]

The last capitulation could very well happen again.

I remember that one. I remembered telling myself, "if I want to buy this is my last chance under $100". I knew it was going higher. I didn't buy for numerous reasons (not having capital positioned, had not evaluated tax implications, being preoccupied with illness, not stable in one work place haphazardly landing to plug in computer, etc).

Now I  know it is going lower.

[RAJSALLIN]

I have a question to the bears. If the price does in fact go the other way at what level will you start buying back? At what level will you panik buy?

[RAJSALLIN]

The last capitulation could very well happen again.

I remember that one. I remembered telling myself, "if you want to buy this is last chance". I knew it was going higher.

Now I  know it is going lower.

Lol I like your confidence.

[rpietila]

A wallet that tracks your fiat cost base is important to develop so that U.S. people can pay taxes, but "discussion" about it among people who don't have the capability to make it (not to say it is difficult because it is a standard requirement for enterprise accounting since 1800s) is moot.

The issue is not just record keeping and calculation, but also planning and timing. The timing on planning interferes with the timing-fungibility of money. This is one of the reasons why investments are not money.

He missed the point. If everyone has to factor the timing of tax planning into the timing of spends, then money sometimes loses the main reason it existed, which was to remove the gridlock caused by barter due to mismatches of the timing of what trading parties wanted to trade. For example, you want to buy that $1000 item, but this would move you into a higher tax bracket for the year, so you must wait until after Dec. 31.

You set up your wallet software such that it automatically spends the last earned coins, which makes it a wash generally (or yields a small gain for which you need to pay taxes and be happy that you get to keep about 60-90% of the purchasing power that would have been 100% lost to inflation in the case you had been using USD instead of Bitcoin). This is similar to using currency.

If you are spending more than you earn, then your wallet spends the coins that were accumulated earlier, in which case you suffer a larger tax hit. This is similar to selling your investments for profit, and paying taxes.

Can someone else explain why this is the end of Bitcoin because I fail to see it?

[RoadStress]

You set up your wallet software such that it automatically spends the last earned coins, which makes it a wash generally (or yields a small gain for which you need to pay taxes and be happy that you get to keep about 60-90% of the purchasing power that would have been 100% lost to inflation in the case you had been using USD instead of Bitcoin). This is similar to using currency.

If you are spending more than you earn, then your wallet spends the coins that were accumulated earlier, in which case you suffer a larger tax hit. This is similar to selling your investments for profit, and paying taxes.

Can someone else explain why this is the end of Bitcoin because I fail to see it?

Best idea regarding the tax implementation!