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5481  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Sportsbet.io ⚽ Spanish La Liga ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread 2022/2023 on: January 12, 2023, 07:36:04 PM
This is random. To evaluate the effectiveness of your efforts, you need to try different options over a long distance. For example, in this round, I predicted a draw (if I remember correctly) between Atlético and Barcelona, and it seems to me that Barcelona's victory can hardly be called natural. I also predicted draws in Serie A - between Spezia and Lecce and between Milan and Roma with the same score 1-1. As a result, the first pair played 0-0, and the second 2-2. On the one hand, I guessed right, on the other hand, luck was against me.

I feel like I did the same "strategy" last season and did slightly better, so that's the long term enough proof for me that consistency is better than just trying something different all the time. But let's see, maybe the recent results really are unnatural (Barca winning was truly a surprise).
~

In games with outsiders, I think it's more profitable to always predict Barcelona to win - even if they reduce the percentage of points scored, in any case, the percentage of wins will be higher than the percentage of losses and draws. In the big games I will bet against Barcelona - according to the statistics this season they have 4 losses, 1 draw (with Inter which equaled in result to defeat) and one sluggish win against Atlético. It is obvious that in big games it is more profitable to predict the failure of Barcelona.
5482  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [POLL] Using AI to predict outcomes on: January 12, 2023, 07:27:02 PM

Anything that can be expressed in numbers AI can process better than humans, so we can say that if somewhere AI is still not good enough, it's only because humans (or automated tools) are not good enough at digitizing some data. If there is some data that cannot be digitized (for example, mood or something like that), then this is also easily taken into account in the forecast simply based on statistics - for example, in women's tennis, which is famous for being more random than men's quotes for winning a set/game, they have a corresponding adjustment.

so based on what you explained, AI still depends on some data that can be digitized and some data that cannot be digitized will need help from humans. AI will help in terms of data processing to make it more perfect.
Every system is not perfect, there will be some weaknesses that require contributions from other systems. AI is only artificial intelligence that can still be engineered, and there will be some bugs that might occur.

At the moment this is the case, but this does not mean that nothing will change. If you remember, at first the simplest prototypes of AI (neural networks) in order to succeed in games (chess, renju, go) were trained with the help of a person. The second stage was that they self-learned completely without human intervention. Over time, this may happen in sports analytics, although now it sounds fantastic.
5483  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🦊 Betnomi.com | Champions League Pool ⚽️ Discussion Thread on: January 12, 2023, 07:21:44 PM
~
Speaking of most points in the next round, I've just been notified that something is in the works to move along the yellow cap rewards, just so you all know nothing has been forgot Wink

Great news! I think now the season will finally go through the "restart" procedure and it will be possible to choose several reliable games to realize this bonus, as the strengths of the teams will become more or less clear. Though I'll likely pick a couple of events (most likely multi bets) with odds above 10. After all, it's bonus money, so why not give fortune a chance to multiply it tenfold?  Roll Eyes
5484  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: January 12, 2023, 07:15:04 PM
Small rumor from Spain.
Real Madrid wants Harry Kane for the next season.

Not sure it could be a good move, does Benzema leave the club?

Also, Kane is not so young anymore 100m for an almost 30yo player?

Benzema is getting older. But that's just a rumor, I'm sure. Real Madrid want Bellingham, Mbappe and someone else. Moreover, it is not known who it wants seriously and who is just an option to show to main goal that Real Madrid has a wide choice and such tricks as Mbappe did in the previous round of negotiations will not work.
Well, theoretically, Kane could well play in Real Madrid for 3-4 years at the top level.
5485  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Europa League 2022/23 Season on: January 12, 2023, 05:56:32 PM
There are actually quite a few candidates for the Europa League title, even though the Arsenal team has slightly more abilities when compared to other teams in the Europa League. But for predictions that are easier to say is after the play-off round is over because there are several strong teams that will compete in the play-off round and several teams will obviously experience miscarriage so everyone will see clearly which team has the potential to continue to survive and become champion in Europa League this season

Even if we take into account that either United or Barcelona will be left out of the tournament, there are still Arsenal, Monaco, Juventus, PSV, Roma, Ajax. And the rest of the clubs (except Midtjylland) can surprise.  I remember how last season everyone thought that Barcelona would win the Europa League since it was there (and Xavi said that Barcelona did not have this title yet and it would be good to win it), but in the end, Eintracht became the strongest club. This is a random tournament and it is even difficult to predict the participants in the final (hardly anyone was waiting for Eintracht - Rangers last year).
5486  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2022/23 Season on: January 12, 2023, 05:41:13 PM
Huge money has really been invested in the PSG team in the last few years, but regardless, PSG is still far from winning the Champions League.
There are a lot of rumors that the relations in the team are not good and that there are big conflicts between the players, especially between Mbappe and Neymar over who will be the main star in the team.
It is difficult to know how true all this is, but the fact is that in every season something is missing for PSG to go all the way and win the Champions League.
Many things have to come together to win the Champions League, including team unity, physical strength, a high level of play and mental readiness when key matches are played.
Bayern will be a real test for the PSG team this season.

The conflict with Neymar has already been settled, I would rather be afraid that Mbappe harbored a grudge against Messi (as someone who did not condemn the antics of the crazy goalkeeper of the Argentina national team towards Mbappe). While Mbappe seems rational enough to just ignore it all, his ambitions are much higher than these petty squabbles.
As for the chances of PSG against Bayern, they are probably not great, as it will be a typical game of team of stars against a star team.
5487  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2022/23 on: January 12, 2023, 05:30:56 PM
The difference in points between the top-ranked teams is not much. So I don't want to think too pessimistically. Sevilla will recover. It's a successful club and it's normal for it to falter sometimes. There are only 4 points between them and 11. Even when we think about it, we realize that there is no need to be so pessimistic. Sevilla will recover in 2-3 games. They beat Getafe 2-1. They got 1 point away from Celta Vigo in the match where they were shown a red card. Their next match is against Girona and I think they will win that match.

If we talk about the fact that Sevilla will recover in the sense of leaving the relegation zone, then there is no doubt about it - it's hard for me to imagine that they will leave La Liga as a result of such a fleeting crisis. Sevilla played in the Champions League and got into the 1/16 of the Europa League - it would be extremely funny if, in parallel with this, it would fly out of La Liga. Another issue is getting at least the Conference League next season. It will be extremely difficult to do this, as there are 11 points up to 7th place.
5488  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: January 12, 2023, 05:19:21 PM
AC Milan facing two bad result after their second position standing in Serie A taken by Juventus and last night have loss opportunity in Copa Italia after eliminating by Torino. Current competition left right now for AC Milan are Champion League and Serie A, I think have advantage although loss opportunity added Copa Italia tittle in their cupboard but AC Milan can focus totally with  Serie A and how can reach until final stage in Champion League.

Current standing in Serie A, AC Milan has the same points with Juventus but facing problem on defender position, have conceded 18 goals of 17 match and seems Milan conceded more than 1 goal every match than Juventus with solid defensive. Actually Juventus not really productive goal scoring than AC Milan but conceded many goals make Milan have dropped to 3rd standing awhile.

It is unlikely that the club took this defeat as a loss - rather, on the contrary, as an acquisition. National cups are a burden for big teams that fight for the championship in the national championship and play in the Champions League. City also dropped out of the FA Cup yesterday and Real Madrid were close too, but they won the lottery. In the next round, Milan have a great chance to return to the sole second place, since Napoli will at least not lose to Juventus.
5489  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2022/2023 on: January 12, 2023, 05:07:32 PM
City are the clear favorites in this game, but it's clear to me that betting on United at 4.30 is an easy bet. Firstly, United are on the rise, secondly, United this season is good in big games, and thirdly, this is a derby where the balance of power always changes in favor of an outsider. Maybe this particular game will be won by City but I am sure that United should win one of the four such games, so the odds of 4.30 are profitable.
Don't waste your money if you want to place a bet on this match, just go for Man City, Man U would disappoint you, as they've always done in the past when you trust them too much. It's true that Man U is getting better with their recent matches, but Man City knows how important this match is to them, so they will give their best feats. And with the analysis, I made since the beginning of this season and beyond, Man City will highly likely win this match. Trust me, Man U would succumb to an inferiority complex while meeting Man City.

You are so confident that City will win, but you are not embarrassed that the bookmakers give everyone who believes in City to earn more than 80 percent on a single bet. If you think sensibly, then probably the bookmakers know what they are doing - after all, they are responsible for their predictions with money. And let them believe that City will win with a probability of more than 50%, the probability that City will lose points is also significant. In this case, I prefer to bet on the underdog to win, not even double chance, since in this case the odds will be much lower.
5490  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: French Soccer League Predictions and Discussion Thread (Ligue 1) on: January 11, 2023, 02:03:49 PM
As a result of Kylian Mbappe's absence, we will miss the trio. Fans will be delighted to see Neymar and Messi back on the pitch as PSG takes on Angers. As Neymar and Messi prepare to rebound from Lens' loss, we can only witness their magic tonight. It could be a massive goals flow since Angers are not a very hard opponent. Over 3.5 goals is a reasonable expectation and would be worthy to bet.

In my opinion, this is a dangerous bet. Angers is not in any way an irritant for PSG or a dangerous opponent, so PSG can win in the "normal" order without much straining with a score of 2-0 or 3-0. As for Angers, they will not go forward, but will only try to minimize the number of goals conceded in this game, so the match may turn out to be closed. So I wouldn't expect a lot of goals in this game.
5491  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Sportsbet.io ⚽ Spanish La Liga ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread 2022/2023 on: January 11, 2023, 01:50:42 PM
I scored 7.5 points in this round, haha, we are close (including in the final standings - I am in 2nd place). There are good days, there are bad days, that's okay. There is a long distance ahead and sooner or later there will be a good result with forecasts "at random". For example, I don't have much time for analysis right now and I make simple predictions, but the last round in the Serie A pool was unusually good for me.

And maybe I should pay less attention the league then in that case because I seem to be doing worse by trying to follow the news and how teams line up and expected odds etc it would seem that bookie odds on the day itself seems a more accurate way to adjust predictions. I am trying to be very consistent, not to predict too many upsets but it's not working anyway!

This is random. To evaluate the effectiveness of your efforts, you need to try different options over a long distance. For example, in this round, I predicted a draw (if I remember correctly) between Atlético and Barcelona, and it seems to me that Barcelona's victory can hardly be called natural. I also predicted draws in Serie A - between Spezia and Lecce and between Milan and Roma with the same score 1-1. As a result, the first pair played 0-0, and the second 2-2. On the one hand, I guessed right, on the other hand, luck was against me.
5492  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Woman won $43million but was offered a steak dinner instead of her winnings on: January 11, 2023, 01:45:30 PM
This happened in 2016 just in case anyone is wondering. I tried to search for the verdict of the lawsuit she filed against the casino but it looks like it's still pending. I personally doubt she'll win the case since the NY Gaming Commission already sided with Resort World. The said machine's maximum payout is supposedly $6500 only.

Here's a more updated story if you want to read https://bonuslots.net/katrina-bookman-vs-resorts-world-casino/

It turns out that the whole story has been going on for 6 years. It's very sad - it's a waste of money (I heard that the services of lawyers are very expensive in the USA) and nerves. And if at the end she does not receive her prize, or most of it, then this whole story will be perceived as a big failure. On the other hand, if she had immediately abandoned it, then she would have been haunted by a sense of missed opportunities all her life.
5493  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [POLL] Using AI to predict outcomes on: January 11, 2023, 01:04:57 PM
Grin You say that as if a person or a team of people can accurately predict the future. No one can accurately predict the future, but for any forecaster at a distance, you can determine the average percentage of "hits". Are you sure that an AI that is capable of processing literally any amount of information will predict the results of sports games worse than humans?
AI is created by humans but it could really be that superior on the time that it would really be evolving or getting its library to be huge scale but we know that there are really things in life which bots cant really be able to predict nor able to handle out specially on sudden change of some fundamentals which only human could make out that deciding factor.It is really just that there are things which humans could really be able to assess it out and would make out some decisions basing on that particular situation or condition.In the end of the  day on which its never been recommendable for you to make use of AI to
predict outcomes because if it does work then all of us would really be using it.

Anything that can be expressed in numbers AI can process better than humans, so we can say that if somewhere AI is still not good enough, it's only because humans (or automated tools) are not good enough at digitizing some data. If there is some data that cannot be digitized (for example, mood or something like that), then this is also easily taken into account in the forecast simply based on statistics - for example, in women's tennis, which is famous for being more random than men's quotes for winning a set/game, they have a corresponding adjustment.
5494  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: January 11, 2023, 12:55:29 PM
So they can rename this session as "only the Premier League will do something in the market".


They really need to change the state of football in Europe. Nobody can spend except them.

But if I'm not mistaken, Barcelona leads the club in player spending. PSG are also in the top with their spending (even if you take Mbappe separately). Real bought Tchuameni for 100 million. Top clubs from other countries successfully compete with clubs from the Premier League, but you are right that in general the Premier League is in the lead in terms of income and if you take smaller clubs then the Premier League clubs are out of competition.
5495  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Europa League 2022/23 Season on: January 11, 2023, 12:45:40 PM
this is not a subjective opinion of people, but an objective fact: firstly, clubs that take places in the national championships below those which will participate in the Champions League participate in the Europa League. The second fact is more eloquent and humiliating for the Europa League: the losers of the Champions League group stage actually get into the 1/16 of the Europa League (play-offs for the right to get into 1/8). If we add here the smaller financial benefits from participation in the Europa League, then all this leads to the fact that the top clubs do not play in it "to the maximum" because they do not have sufficient motivation.
Here I have few points which can bring this UEFA Europa League better for the future like they need to increase some financial benefits which could be important because right now things are not going into good way for the many clubs due to domestic issues, and they need to change rule like giving Champions League exit teams into round of 16 this is also not good if they bring them into any other spot or allow them to have played against few teams which have third spot into their group stage matches it's also much better and increase value of the event as well.

But, it's not still having any legacy because we all know how things working into Champions League with most of the league winners are in this and for others also have to fight hard for the place into Champions League and having very good financial package as well.

Yes, this is a key point - teams that lose in the Champions League should not get into the Europa League at all. These should be two separate tournaments and then they will have separate value, even if one of them is more important than the other. At the moment, the Europa League is a cesspool for losers from the Champions League. What value can a tournament with this format have?
5496  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2022/23 Season on: January 11, 2023, 12:39:24 PM
City are Champions League favorites every year and every year they fail in their bid for the title. It is a pity that this year in the 1/8 finals they have an easy opponent (compared, for example, with a pair of Bayern - PSG) and we are unlikely to be able to assess the seriousness of their claims in these games. I hope in 1/4 they will come across Bayern or another serious team capable of beating them. It would be unfair for the tournament favorite to go to the final the easy way (like Liverpool did last year).
Fact, every season when Champion League started Manchester City become candidate or favorite to be the winner but finally they failed get trophy and can't lead until final stage. Last time great achievement from Manchester City journey in Champion League at season 2020/2021 when leading to final stage but failure after beating by Chelsea 1-0.

Last season, Manchester City are strong candidate with Champion League tittle, actually after winning first leg from Real Madrid at semifinal they have confidence on second leg, but Real Madrid comeback winning mentality make City have failed again with Champion League. Actually Manchester City manager's Pep Guardiola not have special performance in Champion League except trophy achievement with Barcelona, has failure with Bayern and almost several season can't bring Champion League trophy for City.

Yes, Guardiola in Bavaria was extremely unsuccessful. He took on a top team and ended up being beaten consecutively by Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atlético in the Champions League over the course of three years. Pretty ironic when you consider that he came to Bayern from La Liga and that under other coaches (before Guardiola and after) Bayern consistently beat Barcelona. The fact that he won the Bundesliga is not worth mentioning - even I would have won it being the head coach of Bayern.
5497  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2022/23 on: January 11, 2023, 12:20:47 PM
And it looks like Barcelona will continue to be able to maintain its ranking at the top of the standings. because the opponents that Barcelona will face in the next matches are not strong teams. And Barcelona should be able to continue to collect full points in the next two matches. because the opponents to be faced are Getafe and Girona. and a fairly difficult match will be faced by Barcelona after these 2 matches. namely Barcelona will play Real Betis.

I would not treat these two games as a guaranteed 6 points. In fact, Real Madrid and Barcelona for two this season lost points in only one big game (between themselves), in games against Atlético both teams scored 3 points. It turns out that almost all point losses (even rare ones) occurred in games with outsiders. It should be assumed that it is difficult for teams to score 90% of points, so there will undoubtedly be points losses. For example, in such games where no one expects this.
5498  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: January 11, 2023, 12:13:11 PM


Next. we have another big match between Napoli and Juventus, even the odds look interesting but Napoli is still a favorite for this time. I don't know how possible juventus to get 3 points on the Napoli home after Napoli revive defeat Sampdoria 0-2. Juventus also rising up but not so convincing after I look at bet odds even Juventus have 12 clean sheet on this session.
How about picking a draw? Juventus are very strong in defense and are the only team so far to have conceded less than 10 goals in the league only their attack doesn't look so solid, it's different from Napoli whose attack line is very solid but they might find it difficult to penetrate the opponent's defense in this match so it ends without goals will probably happen.

Betting on a draw looks interesting, since it is likely that in one of the 3-4 games there will be a draw. Therefore, the coefficient of 3.5 is fair and can be profitable if you make consecutive bets on such games.
But it seems to me that a bet on Napoli with odds of 1.99 is much more reliable. Objectively, this season Napoli are much stronger than Juventus and we see such generous odds only because of "historical" prejudices and because of the ongoing series of successful games from Juventus.
5499  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2022/2023 on: January 11, 2023, 12:02:07 PM
I'm not sure MU will or at least draw because when we look at the odds below, MU will have face the best squad, Haaland still on fire, while Grealish has blown away his ego. while MU, i heard a news the defender Dalot got injury that possible can't playing yet in the next 2 weeks. So this derby, the MU chance win is hard, I think draw is more promise than winning.




City are the clear favorites in this game, but it's clear to me that betting on United at 4.30 is an easy bet. Firstly, United are on the rise, secondly, United this season is good in big games, and thirdly, this is a derby where the balance of power always changes in favor of an outsider. Maybe this particular game will be won by City but I am sure that United should win one of the four such games, so the odds of 4.30 are profitable.
5500  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Sportsbet.io ⚽ Spanish La Liga ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread 2022/2023 on: January 10, 2023, 08:44:57 PM
I climbed 1 spot! 0-0 draws in La Liga are not usually what anyone picks so most of us disappointed:)


I'm currently in fourth position, because I had a terrible week, I score just 6 points, If only I had done better, I might have move up a bit better, but I slowly losing my knowledge of the league, maybe it's high time I start watch their matches again because asides Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid, I really don't watch any other matches from the league with occasional exception if we have fixtures like Athletic Bilbao playing teams like Sevilla or Villarreal.

I know 4th position might not be so bad, but If I don't keep up the pace, I'll surely drop only further down the pecking order.

I scored 7.5 points in this round, haha, we are close (including in the final standings - I am in 2nd place). There are good days, there are bad days, that's okay. There is a long distance ahead and sooner or later there will be a good result with forecasts "at random". For example, I don't have much time for analysis right now and I make simple predictions, but the last round in the Serie A pool was unusually good for me.
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