The chart seems to be utterly misguiding, and I'm dubious if it really reflects the speculator near-term expectations. China, the largest single holder of the US government debt (10% of total US public debt) is shown in this chart as more risky than the US. WTF?
Near-term. Who is in crisis now, USA or China? Near-term. Near-term. |
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Many people will approve. I actually didn't like that my mother and step father smoked in the car. Yet I see the creeping attack on our individual freedoms, using children as a weapon against the parents. Perhaps this will increase the demand for convertible top cars. |
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The Theory of the Firm can be explained from one perspective with the erroneous theory that knowledge creation can be duplicated and redundant thus managers play an important role of making sure there are backup employees in case one gets sick, leaves, or otherwise fails.
We've needed corporations to aggregate work, because for example you don't build Mozilla Firefox with one programmer. You need a large team.
This is why I was working so hard on solving the Expression Problem for computer programming language (which I think I've solved and will be working on after I finish the crypto work), because with true modularity (no need to refactor), then programmers can work on their own smaller modules and then other programmers can combine modules into large programs. This is the Holy Grail of programming yet to be achieved.
In any case, the point is knowledge creation is becoming more autonomous, e.g. the 3D printer and 3D printer designs for download. You used to need a corporation to accomplish what you can now do individually.
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The Theory of the Firm can be explained from one perspective with the erroneous theory that knowledge creation can be duplicated and redundant thus managers play an important role of making sure there are backup employees in case one gets sick, leaves, or otherwise fails.
We've needed corporations to aggregate work, because for example you don't build Mozilla Firefox with one programmer. You need a large team.
This is why I was working so hard on solving the Expression Problem for computer programming language (which I think I've solved and will be working on after I finish the crypto work), because with true modularity (no need to refactor), then programmers can work on their own smaller modules and then other programmers can combine modules into large programs. This is the Holy Grail of programming yet to be achieved.
In any case, the point is knowledge creation is becoming more autonomous, e.g. the 3D printer and 3D printer designs for download. You used to need a corporation to accomplish what you can now do individually.
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Such a scenario will have to include an alternative to the current monetary system. A Money V.2.0, if you prefer, so that TPTB will still remain at their position and -maybe- even make it stronger. I predict that -if such a transition occurs- some of us will have the ability to upgrade our thesis and *maybe* even form a cluster of opposition. Technology presents a nice weapon for the Knowledge Age, also as, the new generation presents an increased factor of productivity on tech matters. Interconnected companies are forming the current power scheme, will most probably keep their stand, but this is not a 100% certainty. Not when new tech is rushing out and new companies are being formed at a fast pace. Up until now it was possible to accumulate most of them, but what about after the monetary transition (assuming there will be one)? I'm pretty confident we will have our chance to fight back... No doubt the top-down Coasian barrier is dying. The question is how fast it dies. They are consolidating power because they are dying (yet they may have a lot of power in for example obedient Asia ... we will see). The grassroots will be spinning off from the NWO morass into the technologies that enable them to. Yes of course they will reset the monetary system at some point in a power sharing arrangement that is pitched to the public as more fair. The question is how many people will still be following their dying system. They can leverage a lot of physically warm bodies in the developing world, but remember the physical world is heading towards near zero margins. The problem for them is the Knowledge Age is an end-to-end principled network, where there is a declining role for accumulated finance, rather more on individually accumulated expertise interacting autonomously directly (without middle men, managers, financiers, etc). The middle men become zero margin replaceable and the Theory of the Firm dies. |
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I suppose it's everywhere, people looking for a scapegoat, but may become a bigger problem in areas given a heavy dose of multiculturalism.
Scapegoating and frustration to rise in the West because the people don't realize they need to escape socialism and the Industrial Age. But many people are sort of getting it but not entirely. It is a process. Some will move to the Knowledge Age faster than others. So yes a rise in discord and chaos in society in general, with the government responding with a more authoritarian hand. Bankrupt West to tax and expropriate to avoid debt forgiveness (since the TPTB are in control, not the people), thus accelerating deflation making it all worse. The productive people must escape into the Knowledge Age so we can provide a release valve to that declining, self-inflicted morass. Asia, BRICS, and NICs will rise up after 2020, thus providing another escape valve, but they may be heavily integrated with the West's totalitarianism (but maybe we can influence some of them with the Knowledge Age ... we will see). |
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I really need to discipline myself to go quiet. If y'all don't hear from me, it just means I am being productive. Also I'd prefer to see the community doing more talking. I've dominated the discussion too much lately and that is embarrassing for me (was necessary to reach my goal of getting my ideas for innovations moving forward with sufficient economy-of-scale ... apologies). I am posting this in multiple threads where it is relevant because I think I achieved a good summary of the overview of what I think is the future. Note I observe a correction that the USA won't breakup in our lifetimes. The computer model projection is for a breakup within 83 years from now. Instead we will enter a morass of a declining West. There will be a mixed bag of struggles, and society will chaotic as the dying Industrial Age is at odds with the fledgling individually autonomous Knowledge Age: That chart reflects speculator expectations for the near-term. It does not reflect speculator expectations for the medium-term. Thus the chart does not convey the information that the northern European banks are highly leveraged to the PIIGS sovereign debt crisis, and so if the PIIGS default then the German banks will need a public bailout. Will the bailout come from the Germans alone or will the debt problem of the EU be consolidated onto a federalized EU with new taxation powers for the EU destroying national sovereignty. For me this isn't even a question. It is clear why this crisis was manufactured by TPTB.
Back on the point of whether we will see the End of Government. No. TPTB (the capitalist network that rules the dying Industrial Age) is consolidating economies-of-scale because the Industrial Age is dying. So the large fish must eat the smaller fish in order to survive.
The people are fooled and believe they need the Industrial Age socialism model and are clinging to that, thus they will ride this NWO down into its top-down centralized, eugenics destiny with the USA declining from April 2013 at its 224-year peak (when Edward Snowden made his final plans to expose the NSA) to an eventual breakup by the 309th year of its cycle.
So no end of government for the masses. Yet many people will adopt the individually autonomous Knowledge Age and break free from that morass much sooner. That is why there will be a mixed outcome, initially with a waterfall collapse outside the USA, then with a long-term declining West and a rising East after 2020. However that East will be much more totalitarian (top-down obedient) that we were accustomed to in the West (note my comment on the linked page). |
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RealBitcoin, apologies for my demeanor last night. I was sleepless and near to delirious. I've followed up with a more coherent summary as quoted at the bottom of this post. I think you have good intentions and you are correct that socialism is causing many problems now. Your myopia is you don't yet understand the Knowledge Age. The Knowledge Age is not about a superior cathedral of superior minds. It is about moving the smarts for the human network out to the ends of the network, i.e. the End-to-end principle and diminishing the Coasian barriers that give rise to the Theory of the Firm. Simulated annealing is nature's algorithm for optimizing outcomes by allowing decision making to be local between actors and not top-down. That is why when ice is cooled slowly it doesn't crack (the local interaction of the molecules has time to find their optimal mutual arrangement). What that means is that you and no one else can top-down decide which individuals in which situations will be worthwhile. It won't depend on just one metric such as IQ. Life is much more complex, chaotic, and higher entropy than just IQ. I explained it as follows in my seminal essay: http://unheresy.com/Information%20Is%20Alive.htmlExistential Fear
The fear emotion is inherited from the primitive, post-paleozoic, hunter-gatherer time period when mortal danger was omnipresent. Fear stimulates a fight-or-flight adrenaline spike in response to extreme stress. Adrenaline rushes are thrilling and addictive, especially when the threat is low-grade, not thoroughly exhausting, and thus repeatable because it only exists in the imagination. Adrenaline (plus cortisol) shuts down rational thought in the pre-frontal cortex. Production of the steriod cortisol spikes to redistribute more energy to the muscles and nerves, depleting energy from the immune system, digestion, and toxic waste processing necessary to maintain health.
2nd Law of Thermo
All such irrational and unjustified fears are inconsistent with the trend of maximization of entropy guaranteed by the Second Law of Thermodynamics which governs our universe. Such fears include erroneous Malthusian apocalyptic predictions of overpopulation, man-made (anthropogenic) global warming, peak energy, and other resource scarcity delusions of the masses. Entropy is the level of independent possibilities, i.e. diversity. During the 1800s, the Luddites thought technology and mass production would replace all human work, because they couldn't foresee the new independent possibilities of knowledge work that employ us now.
Algorithm ≠ Entropy
Proponents of the technological singularity theory cite the exponential increase in computing hardware power such as Moore's Law and recent software advances such the sophisticated Spaun artificial brain which can pass simple IQ tests and interact with its environment; also IBM's Watson computer which defeated Jeopardy and chess masters, subsequently was recently programmed to do lung cancer diagnosis more accurately than human doctors.
However, the speed of the computing hardware and the sophistication of the software has no relevance because creativity can't be expressed in an algorithm. Every possible model of the brain will lack the fundamental cause of human creativity— every human brain is unique. Thus each of billions of brains is able to contemplate possibilities and scenarios differently enough so that it is more likely at least one brain will contemplate some unique idea that fits each set of possibilities at each point in time.
An algorithm or model can describe what and how to do and even be generalized to respond to unknown future scenarios by observing patterns and deducing rules about its environment, but it can't vary its imperfections nondeterministically, because the input entropy (to the algorithm) is known a priori and is finite. Whereas, for the collection of all human brains, the entropy is unbounded and thus the future can't be predetermined, i.e. isn't deterministic.
Imagine if life was perfect and without chance. Life would be deterministic and could be modeled with an algorithm, then failure couldn't exist, everything would be known in advance, and thus there could be no change that wasn't predictable, i.e. real change wouldn't exist and the universe would be static. Life requires imperfection and unbounded diversity, else life doesn't exist and isn't alive. Equality and perfection are the ambition of the insane who probably don't realize they must destroy life to reach their goal.
Thus the theory that it would be impossible to predict what computers would contemplate is nonsense because the input entropy of the models of the brain will always be finite and deterministic from the time the input entropy is varied.
Pseudo-random number generators are deterministic from the time the seed is changed. Even dynamically capturing entropy from the changing content of the internet would be deterministic from each moment of capture to the next, and the model of capture would be lacking diversity and static (only modified by a human).
Thought Isn't Fungible
To make the computers as creative as the humans would require inputting the entropy from all the human brains. Yet there is no plausible way to extract the future uniqueness of human brains other than to allow them interact with the environment over unbounded time, because the occurrence of creativity is probablistic (by chance) as the dynamic diversity of human minds interact with the changing environment. The term unbounded means there is no way to observe or capture that uniqueness a priori other than through the future of life as it unfolds.
Inmates can be forced to do manual labor because it is possible to observe the performance of the menial tasks. However, it is impossible (or at least very inefficient and imprecise) to determine whether a human is feigning inability or giving best effort at a knowledge task. Manual labor is fungible, i.e. nearly any person with average IQ and dexterous limbs can be substituted to do the task. Whereas, knowledge production such as programming the computer, authoring content or developing marketing plans, requires diversity of thought.
The 160 IQ genius Microsoft founder Paul Allen refers to this as “specialized knowledge” in The Complexity Brake, yet he thinks the brain is finite because he apparently didn't consider that every finite human brain is unique; thus systemic creative thought possesses dynamic unbounded entropy.
Ray Kurzweil responded that the human genome (DNA) has a finite information content, and claimed that humans possess a canonical brain which is differentiated by what is learned from the environment during each human lifetime.
Since the portion of the human genome pertaining to the brain has an entropy in the millions or billions, each human brain is potentially at least one-in-a-million or one-in-a-billion unique. Notwithstanding that uniqueness, if human evolution was entirely encoded in a finite genome, then it would be mathematically possible for a plurality of humans to have identical brains at some point in time as the brain forms before differentiation from non-identical learning environments. However, the brain is learning and exposed to the environment as it is forming in the womb, thus there is never a point in time where the brain was entirely structured from only the information in the DNA.
Thus evolution is not just an encoding from the environment to the genome, rather a continuous interaction between the ongoing environment and the genome. Thus for computers to obtain the same entropy of the collective human brainpower, they would need to be human reproducing, contributing to genome and interacting with the environment in the ways humans do. Even if computers could do this, the technological singularity would not occur, because the computers would be equivalent to adding more humans to the population.
The implication is that the creativity of humankind is enhanced as the human population grows. And culling the population to increase average IQ would reduce human creativity. Resilient systems don't have low entropy.
Claude Shannon showed us that the capacity for information content is equivalent to the entropy of a system. As elucidated above, the entropy of our universe is inseparable from life, thus information is alive.
Knowledge Anneals
Unsophisticated thinkers have an incorrect understanding of knowledge creation, idolizing a well-structured top-down sparkling academic cathedral of vastly superior theoretical minds. Rather knowledge primary spawns from accretive learning due to unexpected random chaotic fitness created from multitudes of random path dependencies that can only exist in the bottom-up free market. Top-down systems are inherently fragile because they overcommit to egregious error (link to Taleb's simplest summary of the math). Given Kurzweil's sensationalized magnum opus is the technological singularity, it is surprising that he is apparently not well studied in the field of social knowledge formation.
Kurzweil states that the brain is composed of a finite number of pattern matchers and that humans train to be exceptional (unique) to think deeply about some subject matter. Whether Kurzweil is implying that computer brains could have more pattern matchers and/or process information from the environment faster thus obtaining higher levels of cognitive capability from more input entropy so as to attain the claim that computers will vastly outpace human knowledge, he fails to understand a basic fact that simulated annealing (SA) is the only known global optimization algorithm when the subject matter is not known a priori. SA requires many simultaneous, independent small (imperfect trial and error) steps. The free market optimizes better than top-down because the larger number of actors anneals better. So again, the computer brains at best can supplement the supply of humans, but they can't overpower the free market. Frankly I am shocked that Kurzweil didn't realize this, since my A.I. studies in the 1980s is where I first learned about SA.
The knowledge creation process is opaque to a single top-down perspective of the universe because to be omniscient would require that the transmission of change in the universe would propagate instantly to the top-down observer, i.e. the speed-of-light would need to be infinite. But an infinite speed-of-light would collapse past and future into an infinitesimal point in spacetime— omniscient is the antithesis of existential. In order for anything to exist in the universe, there must be friction-in-time so change must propagate through resistance to change— mass. The non-uniform mass distribution of the universe is mutually causal with oscillation, which is why the universe emerges from the frequency domain. Uniform distribution of mass would be no contrast and nothing would exist. Taleb's antifragility can be conceptualized as lack of breaking resistance to variance amplification. I urge you to read the above essay at its source location on my unheresy.com "blog", as there are many links cited. That chart reflects speculator expectations for the near-term. It does not reflect speculator expectations for the medium-term. Thus the chart does not convey the information that the northern European banks are highly leveraged to the PIIGS sovereign debt crisis, and so if the PIIGS default then the German banks will need a public bailout. Will the bailout come from the Germans alone or will the debt problem of the EU be consolidated onto a federalized EU with new taxation powers for the EU destroying national sovereignty. For me this isn't even a question. It is clear why this crisis was manufactured by TPTB.
Back on the point of whether we will see the End of Government. No. TPTB (the capitalist network that rules the dying Industrial Age) is consolidating economies-of-scale because the Industrial Age is dying. So the large fish must eat the smaller fish in order to survive.
The people are fooled and believe they need the Industrial Age socialism model and are clinging to that, thus they will ride this NWO down into its top-down centralized, eugenics destiny with the USA declining from April 2013 at its 224-year peak (when Edward Snowden made his final plans to expose the NSA) to an eventual breakup by the 309th year of its cycle.
So no end of government for the masses. Yet many people will adopt the individually autonomous Knowledge Age and break free from that morass much sooner. That is why there will be a mixed outcome, initially with a waterfall collapse outside the USA, then with a long-term declining West and a rising East after 2020. However that East will be much more totalitarian (top-down obedient) that we were accustomed to in the West (note my comment on the linked page). |
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deisik, I slept. Here is a more coherent summary: That chart reflects speculator expectations for the near-term. It does not reflect speculator expectations for the medium-term. Thus the chart does not convey the information that the northern European banks are highly leveraged to the PIIGS sovereign debt crisis, and so if the PIIGS default then the German banks will need a public bailout. Will the bailout come from the Germans alone or will the debt problem of the EU be consolidated onto a federalized EU with new taxation powers for the EU destroying national sovereignty. For me this isn't even a question. It is clear why this crisis was manufactured by TPTB.
Back on the point of whether we will see the End of Government. No. TPTB (the capitalist network that rules the dying Industrial Age) is consolidating economies-of-scale because the Industrial Age is dying. So the large fish must eat the smaller fish in order to survive.
The people are fooled and believe they need the Industrial Age socialism model and are clinging to that, thus they will ride this NWO down into its top-down centralized, eugenics destiny with the USA declining from April 2013 at its 224-year peak (when Edward Snowden made his final plans to expose the NSA) to an eventual breakup by the 309th year of its cycle.
So no end of government for the masses. Yet many people will adopt the individually autonomous Knowledge Age and break free from that morass much sooner. That is why there will be a mixed outcome, initially with a waterfall collapse outside the USA, then with a long-term declining West and a rising East after 2020. However that East will be much more totalitarian (top-down obedient) that we were accustomed to in the West (note my comment on the linked page). |
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That chart reflects speculator expectations for the near-term. It does not reflect speculator expectations for the medium-term. Thus the chart does not convey the information that the northern European banks are highly leveraged to the PIIGS sovereign debt crisis, and so if the PIIGS default then the German banks will need a public bailout. Will the bailout come from the Germans alone or will the debt problem of the EU be consolidated onto a federalized EU with new taxation powers for the EU destroying national sovereignty. For me this isn't even a question. It is clear why this crisis was manufactured by TPTB. Back on the point of whether we will see the End of Government. No. TPTB ( the capitalist network that rules the dying Industrial Age) is consolidating economies-of-scale because the Industrial Age is dying. So the large fish must eat the smaller fish in order to survive. The people are fooled and believe they need the Industrial Age socialism model and are clinging to that, thus they will ride this NWO down into its top-down centralized, eugenics destiny with the USA declining from April 2013 at its 224-year peak (when Edward Snowden made his final plans to expose the NSA) to an eventual breakup by the 309th year of its cycle. So no end of government for the masses. Yet many people will adopt the individually autonomous Knowledge Age and break free from that morass much sooner. That is why there will be a mixed outcome, initially with a waterfall collapse outside the USA, then with a long-term declining West and a rising East after 2020. However that East will be much more totalitarian (top-down obedient) that we were accustomed to in the West (note my comment on the linked page). |
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I read more carefully Armstrong's post. He says up to 309.6 years from the 224 year peak (which was 2013) to the breakup. So appears the USA won't be breaking apart in our lifetime.
We get to participate in the decline only not in the final breakup.
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The corporations are in it for themselves, not for you the USA citizen. With billions of people in Asia, the corporations can get rich seeing those billions rise from $3 per day to $20 per day, while the Westerner falls from $200 per day to $20 per day. Their profit will increase massively while the Westerner falls down to lower level. April 2013 was when Snowden made his final moves to attack the USA and destroy it. Who will ever trust the USG again? I never will. The chart below was first produced in the 1980s. And it predicted exactly when Snowden would act. http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/16967 http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/17972The US will break up, but it should not go into a MADMAX event as long as we reach resistance from the people. If the people keep just watching their sports and never notice what the governments are doing to their future until it is too late, then it can go too far and that in the MADMAX event the ended the Roman Empire. |
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The corporations are in it for themselves, not for you the USA citizen. With billions of people in Asia, the corporations can get rich seeing those billions rise from $3 per day to $20 per day, while the Westerner falls from $200 per day to $20 per day. Their profit will increase massively while the Westerner falls down to lower level. April 2013 was when Snowden made his final moves to attack the USA and destroy it. Who will ever trust the USG again? I never will. The chart below was first produced in the 1980s. And it predicted exactly when Snowden would act. http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/16967http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/17972The US will break up, but it should not go into a MADMAX event as long as we reach resistance from the people. If the people keep just watching their sports and never notice what the governments are doing to their future until it is too late, then it can go too far and that in the MADMAX event the ended the Roman Empire. |
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Who are you referring to expanding? The plight of the people in the West or the international elite? The people in the West will suffer much reduced standard-of-living relative to Asia. That is the West dying relative to its current stature.  |
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It is no conspiracy that corporations want to increase profits and defeat competition.
But this leads to the centralization of power, not fragmentation, right? Move your power to where it can be very centralized because the society is already Communist. Devastate the freedom lovers and individualists in the USA, then use your power to invade and conquer the divided peoples who are weakened. I think they'd prefer to take direct control and they are trying. But Armstrong's model predicts a fracturing. The Constitutionalists are stilll numerous in the USA. It will require war to defeat them. We can hope TPTB might lose but they probably would never accept loss. Limited nuclear war, or polluting the water supply, or what ever it takes. They will choose the least risky choice available. By fighting back, we are forcing them into a corner. We had better be prepared to win. I see chaos ahead. The elite know the USA is the remaining major hurdle to their global dominance. They'd prefer a slow burn into centralized collectivism. But Tea Party is about ready to start going radical if they don't get their wishes in 2016 election. Perhaps the freedom lovers get some victories and the USA fractures because different regions are more collectivist than others. |
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It is no conspiracy that corporations want to increase profits and defeat competition.
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Rome was financed on external conquest (military paid with plunder) and then trade with the somewhat indentured colonies (although they gained protection and road network). You can't say there was no external component because it was always there. While it was expanding it worked, then it slowed down and it imploded as Rome was insatiable (taxes and debt had to replace what wasn't coming from plunder). They depleted the land, the irrigation, all resources were strained by the demand to continue exponential growth. The international elite are: https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21228354-500-revealed-the-capitalist-network-that-runs-the-world/They want to get rid of their competition, e.g. millionaires, small businesses, Constitution rights diehards. Only their businesses will supply the world in their vision of the future. |
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All of the above. Internal and external simultaneously. As happened to Rome.
But the true international elite are consolidating global power and have a long range focus in terms of creative destruction.
They understand that societies love debt and collectivism and thus the overall trend is always to increase their power.
But that is inconsistent with Second Law of Thermodynamics, thus their NWO world has to be a dying one. They may take down billions with them. Nature will help them. Nature does creative destruction too to remove these pesky collectivists. Pandemic might be on tap. We're due.
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All of the above. Internal and external simultaneously. As happened to Rome.
But the true international elite are consolidating global power and have a long range focus in terms of creative destruction.
They understand that societies love debt and collectivism and thus the overall trend is always to increase their power.
But that is inconsistent with Second Law of Thermodynamics, thus their NWO world has to be a dying one. They may take down billions with them. Nature will help them. Nature does creative destruction too to remove these pesky collectivists. Pandemic might be on tap. We're due.
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