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5541  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🌍⚽Sportsbet AFCON prediction pool discussion thread on: January 25, 2022, 10:59:24 AM
Comoros earned me some good coin in qualifications, too bad I wrote them off this tourney or would have scored on their upset. Just too random for me to bet on, but I do hope to see Senegal take a win today. Egypt value bet at over 3/1 you think?

Did you see the stampede during the Cameroon - Comoros game?
Apparently 8 dead so far, with additional 7 in critical condition.

I laugh when they get the anthems wrong, when their referees signal the end of the game 10 min in advance and when all these organizational mistakes occur but things like these should never happen. If they are not ready to host these competitions, they should simply not be held at all.

Didn't even know this happened, no, and it's always senseless to me when it happens. I'm reading more now about other incidents too, it's no laughing matter for sure, am at a loss at how to punish organisers when this happens.

That is actually not so true since we have some connected costs. You don't want to play there
* 5% manipulative costs, this gets deducted from every stake instead incorporated in bookie margin. This is the reason why I always have "better odds" there
* 10% tax on every winning ticket. And this is the reason why I am usually not betting there, not possible to be in profit in long run

That is why I am always using sportsbet odds when writing my tips and I explicitly mention it is local fiat bookie when checking something like this. When I have the time and will I actually calculate proper fiat odds.

But they have the best UI interface I ever used and I am always using them to find my games and markets. Maybe I just got so used to it.

I actually never checked out the tax on sportsbetting here where I am, I do know that all the lotteries and other games of chance and casinos are all tax free winnings. But first time I ever heard of manipulative costs... back home it's a simple entertainment tax which you pay on top of your wager, and that's 10%, with winnings not taxable themselves (which is a better deal for the government I guess).

Like you, the only reason I still use regular books is they're much faster and better than crypto books atm for interface. I remember using William Hill almost 20 years ago (they actually sent a CD to my house good old days of no KYC and no country block haha and I remember even on dialup connection, smooth, but that's probably because you were only downloading data as the software was fully installed)... and then Betfair later on, and I still think they had the smoothest experience. SB comes pretty close I would say, except their search or filter function doesn't seem to be as good as anything else contemporary.
5542  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tennis League All Thread on: January 25, 2022, 09:12:57 AM
Nadal will want to convince everyone 4 hours definitely will have taken its toll on the man, but I feel like this just made him an even stronger contender. Not sure of the routes but does anyone know if he gets to meet Tsitsi if both get past QFs? That's still something I haven't quite figured out how to look for.

Shapovalov vs Nadal surely it's going to be very cracker match because history is also having some interesting facts both have 2 - 2 in last four matches and after giving shocking defeat to Zverev now his confidence is very high, and he can do another upset against clay king Nadal, but it's going to be not easy for any player.

Definitely didn't disappoint. A bit surprised this didn't end up as an epic final set, but gotta give credit to the Canadian for showing up (albeit only to delay the inevitable).

After the Madison Keys win I was able to see most of the first two sets and Nadal looked like he was in a trance (not focused, just trance like) while his oponent was trying to channel his inner JohnMcEnroe.

I don't think even McEnroe would ever have used the word "corrupt" but yeah pretty grinworthy Wink

5543  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread -- Group Stage! on: January 24, 2022, 07:49:34 PM
Four clubs ahead of PSG as the favorites to win the Champions League?
You will be surprised, but this is Chelsea:

Manchester City FC 3.80
Bayern Munich 4.65
Liverpool 6.05
Chelsea 7.60
Paris Saint Germain 9.95

@joker_josue actually it might surprise you even more to learn that PSG has never been in the top 3, not even pre-season as I recall, because I placed bets on City (the #1 favourite pre-season) and Liverpool, who were around 8/1 but still thought to be likelier winners than PSG. IIRC even Man Utd were ranked higher pre season, thanks to all their supposed literal purchase of champion material.

We actually discussed their odds 2 months ago in French Ligue 1 thread and it hasn't changed much then, except to oddly switch Chelsea above PSG after pretty bad performances from the Blues:

Manchester City FC 3.95
Bayern Munich      4.90
Liverpool             6.15
Paris Saint-Germain 6.85
Chelsea               6.95
Manchester United 16.20
Real Madrid          17.40
Ajax                   20.20

Pure fourth place and their quotes are even higher than Chelsea's (how?). In my opinion, these are adequate odds, except maybe Real Madrid's underestimation.
By the way, there is a possibility that after yesterday's 7th Ballon d'Or for Messi, a tense situation will arise in the team due to this obvious injustice and ambitions of Mbappe and Neymar. At least I hope so  Grin

Don't ask me how Chelsea, the defending champions and EPL leaders, are below PSG. Don't remember early season but Ajax deserve better quotes and Real are Real... they love UCL and UCL love them.

And don't get me started on Messi. Love the guy but he must be embarrassed to be there on stage but as I said before, awards are popularity contests and this one's voted by journalists for a French awardee haha Wink
5544  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is El Salvador in debt because of the bitcoin price drop? on: January 24, 2022, 05:00:32 PM
Not a problem, two pics of laser eyes and any issue is solved.
How you set up a fund in $ to buy BTC and then from that fund you spend profits in $ from something that is losing value but without selling BTC is beyond me.

Ah yeah, the state leadership proving once more that they have a deep inability and unwillingness to fix real economic and fiscal problems, but who can blame them when laser eyes is the easy fix that wins you Twitter followers and influencer approval, yeah?

I hate to say it but more and more we're going to see a lot of banking people who can't wait to use El Salvador as teachable moment fodder. Wonder if Bukele will soon be on the phone calling up them Miami conference friends and getting their voicemail. I suppose they could always NFT their Twitter profiles.
5545  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🌍⚽Sportsbet AFCON prediction pool discussion thread on: January 24, 2022, 02:54:18 PM
Sorry guys, you're right. I don't know what I seen earlier but now I'm looking it is indeed 24 to 26/1. I was pretty damn sure I was looking at the right market though, cause I drafted a ticket (and I generally check on Fairlay or Betfair just to get a good idea of "fair" odds. BF is now 35/1. Funny your local bookies are always way better than crypto @Trofo, here there is only one legal bookie and their odds are Pinnacle-ish or worse. Wonder if they'd let me play? Haha. The one we have here is the worst ever. Never give promos, or if they do, it's maybe for 2 euros or something.

Sky was 66/1 I saw but it's a promo boost... only one guy I know in forum who uses them.

I still think those are odds too respectful of Comoros =p

But still, soon as it gets Super Boost on SB I'll try see if they give 30/1. And then do an acca with Liverpool v Chelski on it, why not?
5546  Economy / Gambling / Re: ▄■▀■▄ 🌟BITVEST.io🌟 💰WIN BY 🔶PLAY 📈INVEST➡🔺🎲🎰🔲 | BET CONTEST ▄■▀■▄ on: January 24, 2022, 02:26:51 PM
Out of curiosity, how would one know who is an active user at BitVest among all the members of this forum? I, for one, started playing there right about the time I first joined their signature campaign, but I have never posted or discussed my BV username publicly on this forum. Just saying.

Just saying... what?

By spending time reading the thread and keeping in touch with other players I guess? I know players from several sites who have threads on this forum and some of us don't even share usernames (I've only just shared it from the recent pages here). You don't need to know people from their usernames, but if they're talking about events and things that could only happen from actually playing at the site (like most of the shitposters don't), then you're an active user. How else would one know?

So if you have spent all this while knowing BV and never seen me post or share about my activities in BV, that's probably because the thread's been hijacked by irrelevant posts from non-users.
5547  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🌍⚽Sportsbet AFCON prediction pool discussion thread on: January 24, 2022, 01:20:35 PM
So tell me, even after all the crap Comoros has had to go through, after now knowing they have no keeper to put between the posts, their odds are STILL so shitty to bet on? 12/1 against Camebloodyroon... I'm so disgusted with the odds haha.

Anyway, sorry about Nigeria igehhh. I put them in my picks AND in 4-3-free but at least avoided adding them to my footie accas. Not that it matters, I haven't been winning anything special this week or last.

And yes, Trofo haha African holiday islands that aren't on the mainland are... pretty unique if you can actually get yourself a cheap ticket to go. I spent a couple of weeks in Seychelles and it was seriously pretty close to Asia in terms of lifestyle. But totally different types of waters and food.
5548  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tennis League All Thread on: January 24, 2022, 11:25:10 AM
@Yaunfitda yeah managed to tune in a little but work's a bit tough on Mondays so I'm going to have to wait till a bit later to see if I can catch it, but hopefully Tsitsi gets out of this intact before then.

Saw that Cilic, Halep, Mertens some of the bigger names out today (least to my eyes, not even sure if they two girls were the favourites in those matchups but didn't recognise their opponents).
5549  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Sportsbet.io ⚽ Italian Serie A ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread on: January 24, 2022, 08:48:51 AM
Another 0-0 and this time I don't think we can blame poor quality players -- saw the teamsheet and it had plenty of firepower, and around HT I saw Milan did have 5 shots on goal, so we can blame Juventus for this one haha. Guess they didn't want to fight back from 3-1 again... Roma seemed to learn their lesson too, scoring 4 goals (and letting in 2). Surprised I actually got a close score from that one.

And yeah, one La Liga (Cadiz), one AFCON and a heck lot of Serie A games gone buggy on Superbru, as are still "Live". Premier League bug free weirdly enough.
5550  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UFC Fight Night & Main Event: Sportsbet.io Predictions & discussion on: January 23, 2022, 09:12:12 PM
Reporting in. Weird Sunday for me. Was earlier waking up to losses in less familiar territory (NFL) but also to this surprise news on the slight underdog win in UFC.

Even won a small outlay on this to go all the way, which it certainly did. My money had always been flagging on for Gane, but his odds kept improving, so the value for me did not, ended up pocketing some decent change on Ngannou, instead of withdrawing I now more than doubled that change (yay).
5551  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Sportsbet.io ⚽ Italian Serie A ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread on: January 23, 2022, 05:21:21 PM
Attacking players: Piccoli, Pessina, Miranchuck
Mid: Pezzela, Scalvini

Who the hell are those guys? Where are Zapata, Muriel, Pasalic, Malinovsky, Ilicic, Gosens, De roon, Hateboer? If they are all injured then it is on us that we did not anticipate problems for Atalanta.

Did not at all see the lineups for any teams in Serie A (or to be perfectly honest, not even if it's not my team anymore). Last Atalanta game I watched was actually the one Zapata got injured... before the winter break, can't remember which team it was now. And they exploded with goals on the restart, so it was pretty normal to assume they'd go on and on, but I suppose you're right. No established names on the list, could have expected no goals.

Used to put a lot more thought into my predictions on Superbru but now I leave that to betting so if the team isn't in my picks then I put random scores in here (as I was saying in my previous post) trying to back the favourite, then the form, then the home team, then the draw if I can't really decide. It seems to have worked well so far and as I said, miss it like we all did Atalanta TWICE in a row now, and it's okay. Who's going to risk choosing a draw or loss next? Don't think those 1st teamers are coming back for next game.

Anyway, Milan to win and BTTS good value, right? My last bet of the night.
5552  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Sportsbet.io ⚽ Spanish La Liga ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread on: January 23, 2022, 04:12:29 PM
^speaking of Leicester choking. Wasn't injury time equaliser but still, pretty late and pretty lame.

Anyone watching Real? Came over right after Liverpool game and saw Vini had a great game as usual, keeper just too good. And then Benzema missing a penalty. All that hard work and one goal down, Elche can't possibly keep this advantage unless their keeper keeps his 1st half form.
5553  Economy / Gambling / Re: ▄■▀■▄ 🌟BITVEST.io🌟 💰WIN BY 🔶PLAY 📈INVEST➡🔺🎲🎰🔲 | BET CONTEST ▄■▀■▄ on: January 23, 2022, 03:03:28 PM
@Pseudo-Random: Great point about the sigcampaigners, rare to acknowledge the situation yet also to note the shitposting of this thread to irrelevance for months. Only one or two of them I even know as active users at BV, and those guys actually not once shitposted here about LL. I actually think Zodiac/LL should commission a study to find if there's been any impact since pausing the campaign. My money's on that it actually improved after.

Hope you're well, curious what you've been up to.
5554  Economy / Speculation / Re: Do you believe Michael Saylor is currently getting antsy? on: January 23, 2022, 01:55:02 PM
Am sure MS is prepared to take hits on two or three running years even. As long as they keep buying, they'll get their dues after the next halving rally.

Slight correction, as long as poeple keep lending him the money to buy coins he can take as many hits as he wants. Cheesy
But I don't see the point in doing so, either go buy BTC directly or at least invest in something that still makes a profit out of BTC even during bear season, although the option here are pretty limited.


I never quite understood that either, giving someone else money to invest in something you could easily do yourself for better rates. If it was about interest, BTC's volatility simply doesn't make sense for that model.

Fully expecting Saylor to be announcing doubling down or tripling down on buys at this bargain price... I mean he's got to not look like he changed his mind, assuming he's cut from that cloth like all wealthy people putting money where their mouth are.
5555  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Sportsbet.io ⚽ Spanish La Liga ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread on: January 23, 2022, 12:09:30 PM
@slaman Totally get the need for you to catch up but yeah man, haven't you been paying attention to all the talks that come up about Valencia every now and then and how they've lost us money time and time again? Haha but what a game it was too, though, wasn't it? I still don't enjoy Spanish football as much as English or even Italian (in recent seasons anyway) and you'd have to be a cynic to enjoy Atletico's style but it's still pleasurable to watch this kind of game at some point especially after drab EPL games.

Leicester and Valencia. Serial chokers.

Nicely done on Cadiz toma, they're doing a Norwich, aren't they? You're right, on Superbru the Cadiz game is still marked "Live". And on EPL page I should have lost my lead to tumi, but it still shows me at top. Very weird!
5556  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Sportsbet.io's English Premier League Football Pool Discussion Thread on: January 23, 2022, 11:05:26 AM
Wolves have been brilliant in recent week, and I back them in all my bets and in the pool, that seemed like a bet not to be missed for me.

One of my favourites when Nuno didn't get pressured into changing tactics this season, but since he left they seem to have found their way again. It's not that they're not exciting to watch, just the way they seem to have built for themselves a brickwall in final third. But yes, great value bets on them for now, thanks to their seeming inability to score (and yet still do).

@Joca: most of us did badly. I am noting that there are quite a few others taking more risks like rdbase now, and the weekly board shows this up quite well. I was a bit adventurous with picks and paid dearly (predicting 3 goals for United, City, Villa, Leeds) and then all of them scoring one or none. I have not been moved to change my stance today though.
5557  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tennis League All Thread on: January 23, 2022, 09:47:15 AM
Personally, I considered Zverev one of the main favorites to win this tournament, and now it seems to me, based on previous games, that the main favorites are Medvedev and Nadal.
What do you think?

Nadal at 7/1 before Djoko was out to me was the best bet I'd have taken BUT I decided to go for Tsitsipas at 18/1 instead -- I think the odds reflected people thinking his injury would get in the way but he's reached 2 semis here and I know he wants to do better while the world's bests aren't at their best right now. Glad @aoluain agrees the Greek as an outsider. I like my chances like that.
5558  Economy / Gambling / Re: Stake.com - Most Popular Crypto Casino & Sportsbook - Watford & UFC Partner ⚽ 🥊 on: January 23, 2022, 09:33:17 AM
Hey guys, probably spent WAY too much time fussing over this triple stakes game. I was actually waiting for Gane to up to 2/1, when I first started checking odds were 1.91 but I missed that boat as his position as the favourite just got stronger and stronger --  so I've gone done and said enough and put down some money on Ngannou, that triple winning thing a bit hard to ignore!

Don't know, But I think Ciryl Gane is in favor in UFC-270,
already placed a huge bet, waiting for 23 January, feeling so much excited.  Roll Eyes

Yeah he was a long time favourite, but not by much initially. I think the highest odds I saw for him on Stake was 1.91, which is why I mentioned I'd been waiting for it to go all the way up to 2/1 for an even doubler.

Unfortunately, I guess heavy betting on him kept reducing the odds, hence the value, so I literally swung to Ngannou just for the odds.

Too bad we didn't get the triple win as this was a unanimous decision. You guys at Stake must still be happy!
5559  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Sportsbet.io ⚽ Italian Serie A ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread on: January 23, 2022, 08:30:54 AM
I think I've said a few times too, when I put in score randomly without even checking out recent forms or position on the table it tends to work, but when you get really close in the ranking and you don't want to mess shit then it all starts to go sideways again.

Lazio and Atalanta playing out a goalless draw is something I really just still can't understand, I've got BTTS on at least to parlays and Over 2.5 on another, meeeeh! That'd be the 3 goalless draw in 5 games from Atalanta, what a shame from a team that were known for their goalscoring prowess.

I've definitely been doing a hell lot more "random" than planned for Serie A and La Liga and it's weirdly working out for me now after 20+ matchdays. But then it's not really random if you kind of know the teams even without really following the leagues right? For example, for me, random means backing the home team more regularly than the away team if they're not a big name team (to me). Or picking a draw when the last 5 games form for both teams is very similar (and so easy to use Superbru for that).

I think it all comes down to style. If your style suits prediction, better to stick to it. If not, better go random. My style of planning is awful for these types of pools, and I know it's only halfway through the season but I'm super happy with how it's all turning out so far just putting picks on favourites and instinctive scoring. This season I'm literally taking less than 1 minute to put my entire week's picks in, and in fact most of my picks for all 3 leagues are done a week ahead, if not more.

Last season, I was doing all kinds of calculations, especially for premier league, and then calculating in upsets, and putting in scores looking at odds for Correct Score market, who's injured, who's playing etc.

Now I'm just: fck it, a favourite doesn't stop becoming a favourite even if they change their style and team. And it pays off to still make the odd mistake anyway as even when Atalanta didn't win like last night, or the game before, no one else backed them to not win anyway.

You know there's always one or two teams after mid season you should never bet on. in EPL, that's become Chelsea. I wonder if it's become Atalanta for Serie A...
5560  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: NFL Sportsbet.io discussion & predications thread rev on: January 23, 2022, 08:11:32 AM
So I was asking for upset picks and not a single person here or anywhere guessed there would be 2 last night, and one knocking out tourney favourites too. Sadly, my Packers journey ends here. Killing not only my outright but additional bets placed using them as supposed acca padding.

After MLB, NFL bow outs, I think I will be limiting my bets to pure outrights next season haha.
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