Excellent work!


"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." - Niels Bohr

Also, consider that when you place the order today, you are spending your bitcoins at today's exchange rate.

If you were to, say, wait until October to place your order, the exchange rate could be higher (or lower, but let's say higher ... say $8).

So the person who pays for the $1,299 SC Single today at $6.65 pays about 195 BTC.  The person who pays in October at a (hypothetical) pays about 162 BTC for the same product instead.  But person who waits until BFL has the units "in the wild" didn't need to worry that BFL really could deliver on these units.

 - http://preev.com/

Heh, wow, awesome!  Thanks!

There's one other feature that might be useful -- user configurable timeout, so that like 15 minutes of inactivity I need to log back in to play.  (optional, of course)

Incidentally, Blockchain.info now supports a method to send funds to any mobile number.  (The text sent contains a URL that is used on the mobile's web access to store the funds in a Blockchain.info wallet or to forward the bitcoins elsewhere.  Data service is required to do that from the mobile.)




 - https://blockchain.info/wallet/send-via
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=40264.msg1000327#msg1000327


As that URL sent is a bearer code (spendable by anyone with access to the data), I question whether this approach, and consider another problem due to SMS being a channel controlled by the government here:

 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=90901.0

Nice!

On a related note, since the URL in the text acts as a "bearer code", and the data in SMS texts are accessible by many on the trip from sender (Blockchain.info) to recipient (edge device), then likely thefts of funds will start occurring, at some point, before the recipients get a chance to redeem (claim) the funds.  I posted on the topic here:

 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=90901.0

Coinapult was the first to offer a method to send bitcoins to a mobile number (where those bitcoins can be stored by the recipient or sent using nothing more than SMS text messaging).  Their SMS service is available in the U.S. and Canada only, though they assert that they are working on offering that to a wider global footprint.  Presumably, since Coinapult offers the ability to send bitcoins for free (they only charge when bitcoins are sent through their API), offering this globally would incur costs for sending the text messages.
 - http://coinapult.com/sms-wallet

Blockchain.info just added the ability to send bitcoins to any mobile, however the text message sent to the recipient contains simply an URL that is used to claim the funds using the web (thus a data plan on the mobile, or Internet access on a separate device is required.)  They too offer this service for free, apparently.
 - https://blockchain.info/wallet/send-via
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=40264.msg1000405#msg1000405


An SMS wallet service like Coinapult's which requires only SMS text messaging for use combined with the ability to be used globally like Blockchain.info's means bitcoin instantly becomes truly usable by oh, about four BILLION people.  When realizing this I feel like running to the rooftop and shouting Hey world, the BE-YOUR-OWN-BANK is now open!.

Of course, we're not there yet, and I'm stuck not believing we'll actually get there.  At least, not with SMS text messaging.

Here's why.

SMS text messaging is not secure.  The URL in the SMS text message from blockchain info looks like this:

Congratulations! You have been sent 0.1 bitcoins. Claim at: https://blockchain.info/wallet/claim#SwiDoPVEDoZFz6Vsid3

So if a person has access to a mobile carrier's sms gateway or network (which many of the mobile provider's staff and government / law enforcement do) then there's only one line needed to filter the text message stream to get access to free money.  (filter to include any "blockchain.info/wallet/claim#").

That URL is a bearer instrument.  Anyone who has access to that URL can spend those funds.

Coinapult requires a text message response from the mobile number the funds were sent to so at least with that there's no bearer code being transmitted across the SMS network.

On the surface, it would seem an SMS wallet offered globally would have the potential to be a global version of a bitcoin-denominated M-PESA.  With four billion users in the potential market, this seems like a solution so obvious that it will happen.

But it probably won't.  At least not where it is needed the most.  M-PESA is offered by a telecom company.  M-PESA shares their (relatively exhorbitant) fees with the government of Kenya (the country where M-PESA is offered.)  How many days after realizing that SMS wallets are starting to catch on before texts to and from the SMS wallet provider's number are blocked?  (and thus the user's funds left stranded, at least temporarily).   Unlike bitcoin's peer-to-peer architecture, telecom infrastructure operates as the givernment instructs them to.

Over the longer term, smartphones with data services and encrypted communications make it irrelevant what can or cannot be done using the SMS network.

But to carry bitcoin through this period of time where SMS wallets would be the only option for hundreds of million or billions of potential users, I'm wondering what path, if any, will work?

I suppose though, the benefits gained by using bitcoins could outweigh the potential financial loss should blocking or thieving of funds start to occur and as a result pursuing this approach, flaws and all, really is the correct action.

Any thoughts?

Fees?   You can't send a text for free, right? (at least, not everywhere ..)

I thought you were talking about a synthetic?  (which, of course, is not buying AAPL it is an artificial product that has nothing to do with AAPL except simulating its price moves).

BitcoinOPX has options, including for AAPL.  There is a pull-down select box.  Select AAPL for AAPL options.

As far as how one would attract investment this way, I don't know.  It is a difficult problem because presumably you are operating this anonymously and thus it is easy to con investors.  And if you aren't operating it anonymously it is vulnerable to confiscation by regulators.

BitcoinOPX is headed that way for options (cash settlement ... or contracts for difference / CFDs)
 - https://bitcoinopx.com/trade

MPeX is an exchange where synthetic issues are offered:
 - https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/MPEx

GLBSE does too, as well:

The problem is, of course, ... with all of thise, is trust.  How can I know that I can cash out and I will have access to my funds.

Whoah ... what happened?  The pull-down selection for Payment Method only shows PayPal and Dwolla.

What happened to the other methods?

LOL, well since you filled in I'll be brief for once.


There are daily limits, and certain activity levels will trigger AML thresholds where verification might become required.  So if that would be a problem, perhaps buy smaller amounts (e.g., $500) at a time from multiple parties and never let funds accumulate at the exchanges (i.e., withdraw bitcoins and hold the bitcoins in your own wallet, on a secure computer.)

For instance, deposits made with cash to BitFloor at a Chase bank can then be used to buy bitcoins -- no fee for the deposit, and a low fee when buying bitcoins.

You didn't mention if the cashing out part needs to avoid going through a bank as well.   If using a bank for the cash out part is fine, then ACH is the easiest.  Bitfloor, Camp BX and FastCash4Bitcoins.com all offer ACH withdrawal methods.  And Dwolla to ACH is an option too -- Camp BX and Intersango will do those (as will Mt. Gox but there are delays for that with them, for now.)

To avoid ACH or going through a bank, then cashing out to a prepaid debit card is convenient -- especially since access to the funds from an ATM is possible.  Walmart has their Money card and MoneyPak can be used to refill it.  MoneyPak is available from FastCashBitcoins.com and from BTCPak.com  The prepaid cards do require online registration so these cannot be used anonymously.

To avoid any identity, perhaps there is a trader on LocalBitcoins.com who would do an in-person, face-to-face trade.   Get-Bitcoin.com will send cash in the mail.  

There are many options:
 - http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Buying_bitcoins
 - http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Selling_bitcoins

Make it technically painful to use bicoins and financially painful to hold them.

Quiet a few options, but fortunately, we aren't under complete tyranny (yet) and taking actions to "destroy bitcoin" would likely be of little benefit to whomever would try.

There have been some very juicy arbitrage opportunities over the past month or so:
 - http://nyse-group.de/bitcoin-arbitrage

But it has been very hard to move funds in and out of the exchanges.  Here's an attempt to automate arb that ended up shutting down:
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=74291.msg981888#msg981888

So if you are having to wire transfer the funds you have to work with large amounts to justify the fees.  And even if you have a strategy that works on paper, .. it will seem to fail when your order on one exchange goes through, and then you find the connection to the other become disconnected and no response -- giving heart palpitations as you get stuck exposed as volatility has its way with your unbalanced trade.

But at the levels we have right now, the opportunities are definitely enticing.

There might be ways to move the cash around also thanks to TransferWise and CurrencyFair.

Ruh roh Rorge!

Mining is a form of speculation.  You are speculating on the future exchange rate level and the future difficulty level.  GPU mining is only a slightly less risky form of speculating on bitcoin that by bitcoin bitcoins outright but because you can always sell your GPU hardware for game playing and other non-mining purposes, you won't lose everything.

But to take out a bank loan to buy specialized bitcoin mining hardware, ... that's going to be hard to justify.

If you have savings or sufficient discretionary income to cover the loan repayment should there be difficulties, and just want to take advantage of the low interest rates, then that's possibly one of the few instances where doing so makes sense.

But look back to October of last year:
 - http://blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin

There were literally tears and disgust from miners who had invested in GPUs and rigs -- they were not only losing money on each hash (as the cost of electricity was greater than the revenue obtained from mining), they hadn't sold their bitcoins that were mined when the value was much higher -- amplifying their losses.

There's nothing saying we won't be back at $4 or less again.  Maybe FinCEN starts taking action, or the banks kick out all the exchanges?   Or simply, the block reward drop in December is particularly brutal on miners?  

We dont know.  But using other people's money to gamble is something that usually doesn't end well.  (well, unless you are a bankster and have the Bernank in your pocket then you actually get a huge bonus for doing that).

Some more feedback, if you don't mind.

How about a setting in my profile so that I can have the client record (log) my play.  e..g, to later get a list of all hashes and secrets.

Just from knowing the speed of hands that the player is going at it becomes pretty easy to tell if the player is looking at the verification.  Of course, the odds are that 99.998% of us won't be verifying.   But if the client might be logging each play, for verification after the fact, then there's no way to tell which players might be scrutinizing the results.  Which keeps everyone honest.

As far as the rules, what if both the dealer and the player get blackjack?  Perhaps a page with a more complete set of rules would be useful?

What is the hold percentage (house advantage) for this game?

Now you're cooking with gas!

 - https://techblog.bitzino.com/2012-06-30-provably-fair-shuffling-through-cryptography.html


Ok, ... some suggestions.

Using my Android, there is some "space" character displayed next to the amounts, so 0.0 BTC looks like 0.0▯BTC

When showing the deposit address, a QR code would be useful.  

When showing the field for entering the address for withdrawal, a link to scan a QR code would be useful.

See how EasyWallet.org does it as a good example.

And, one other suggestion.

There's really no reason for me to have to register.  If you had an "instant" (or "anonymous") mode, I could create the account simply by sending BTCs to a deposit address.  And simply, when I'm done playing, I can withdraw back to the funding address, or to another address that I enter or scan.  But if I abandon the account, then my balance is automatically returned to the funding address, say after 48 hours of inactivity or something like that.

And one other suggestion.  In addition to taking an address when depositing, consider also serving the user wishing to deposit by redeeming a private key and (or possibly a redeemable code from an exchange).

The reason this would be useful is so that a paper bitcoin type product could be used to fund the bitZino wallet and then used to withdraw the winnings as well.    For instance, at a club the ticket printer kicks out a funded paper bitcoin no different than what BitAddress.org produces.  That's all a player would need to then load funds into bitZino, ... play a few hands, and then withdraw back to the paper bitcoin which can be used again at a later date, or by someone else, or redeemed at an exchange for cashing out.    i.e.,  all someone needs to play is access to a smartphone mobile (or, preferably, a tablet) and a slip of paper with the two QR codes on it (or, prepaid bitcoin card like:
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=87441.msg961085#msg961085 )

Scannable QR code or on a mag stripe / swipe ?

[Update ... oops missed this.


So if not mag stripe, ... where's the private key?  QR code?]

The exchange rate is the balance of supply and demand at the markets.  So a speculator might be holding onto coins with the same expectation as you (that lower daily production should mean an increase in the price) but then plan to cash out after the halving occurs.  If there are many speculators with the same idea, there could be instead of an increase in the exchange rate a sharp decrease as many unload their previously hoarded stashes.

What is known is that today's valuation of the currency is about $60 million but there probably is not so much use of the currency as a currency that that valuation makes sense.  Each day there is less than a million dollars of trading at the exchanges (to and from fiat) and the are no runaway commercial successes (e.g., revenue in bitcoins equal to a hundred million $s worth of revenue per year or more) yet.  As a result, there could be made the argument that so much of bitcoin's current value is from speculators who may be holding out to see what happens after block 210,000, but then might unload large amounts.

Nobody knows, that's why it is called speculation.

There's two goals -- to get a bitcoin economy functional where the currency circulates, yet at the same time allow it to function as a store of value.  Since the future demand can't be known, the only lever available is the supply.  

So if the issuance starts out fast but continually slows, it can serve both needs.



 - http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_Currency_Supply
 - http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/FAQ#How_are_new_Bitcoins_created.3F

Trying to raise a fair amont of funds for something like this is not all that easy, from what I've seen.  What's needed is a compelling reason to help.

There is a Bitcoin ChipIn now:
- http://www.bitcoinchipin.com/


ORLY?  Who would be doing that?

Incidentally, there are two simultaneous events: