Average finishing position in all tournaments participated in the series is the tie-breaker then. There is a column for average finish, but it's hidden for the time being between column "Pts Tot" and "Tickets".


I put that D in, since you have no placement for that tournament, so I assumed you paid, but didn't join. But I can't check without screenshots - anyone has them for T5 ?

This was just an outlier and is no pattern


If I were a coach and my team gets a red card in first half being one score down (0-1/1-2/2-3), my ultimate goal would be to defend this score as long as possible to keep me in the game. Then in the maybe last 10 minutes, I would get more offensive again and try to score the equalizer.
I guess this is what ManU tried to do as well, because they didn't make any substitution after the red card. It didn't work out and they were down 1-4 already with half-time and then just decided to limit the damage, which didn't work out as well then

As I said in the opening post, I don't think a red card is that bad, i.e. the end of the world. You have some tactical tools and should also react properly on a mental level. We have seen in this thread that not all hope is lost when you are one man down (Eibar this weekend or Juve the weekend before). It is a disadvantage, but not as big as generally assumed imo.

It was pretty hard to find an under in the early games, but you found it All other games went over - ARI/CAR depends on the line, could have been push - and a whopping 60.75 pts were scored on average, never seen anything like that before


For me:

1. Chiefs
2. Ravens
3. Seahawks
4. Packers

Then Bills, Patriots, Steelers in no particular order. Lots of AFC teams and I would add 49ers from NFC if not for the injury trouble they have atm. I am not yet sold on the Bills, because so far they only played Jets/Dolphins/Rams/Raiders. They will play Titans/Chiefs/Patriots/Seahawks in their next 4/5 games, maybe I will have to change my mind after those games. Same goes for Steelers, who have yet to play a top team.

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The NFC East is so bad this year A combined record of 2-12-1 and one of those 2 wins came from a divisional game. Only Dallas was able to get a "real" win for the division and it was this miracle against the Falcons, which they should have lost, if not for some Falcons players messing things up with the onside kick. But Cowboys and Giants will meet next week, so it will be 3 wins for the NFC East in seven days for sure.

According to Oddsportal you could get 351 at Betvictor, which is super low for such a once in lifetime result imo. On Betfair (exchange) you could surely get 1000, i.e. the highest odds possible, in this extra CS market. But even this is low then; don't know if there is any odds that I would have played for this game to end 7-2

Pretty uneventful weekend for red card fetishists (are there these kind of people ?).

England

ManU - Tottenham
Red Card: ManU in 28th minute, score 1-2
Final Score: 1-6

ManU completely collapsed after that red card and conceded 4 more. This would have been a bad spot.

Spain

Valladolid - Eibar
Red Card: Eibar in 73rd minute, score 1-1
Final Score: 1-2

Eibar managed to get all 3 points with a late goal one man down. This is rather unusual in an away game also considering Eibar was >4.00 pre-match. Didn't watch the game, but maybe Valladolid pushed for the 2-1 and ran into a counter-attack.

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Alaves - Bilbao
Red Card: Alaves in 86th minute, score 1-0
Final Score: 1-0

Red card came late, so had no impact no more.

Italy

Lazio - Inter
Red card: Lazio in 70th minute, score 1-1
Final score: 1-1

Laying next goal Inter would have worked here, which is maybe really something one should look into as a strategy with small money to test the results (not just on paper).

Germany

No red cards this round.

Trofo takes home another win and 100 fame points for him alone. 8/14 is really a good performance with so many weird results. I have hit a new personal low with getting only 4 right and have only goal for next MM and that is getting the Friday night game correct.





At least I hit on correct score 7-2 @2500 in Liverpool match, which makes the weekend a successful one.

jk

Cowboys getting embarrassed by the Browns, who are averaging 9yds per rush so far I really like the offense of the Cowboys - they are exiting to watch - but if the defense can't stop a nosebleed......


Panthers really surprise me. I thought they would struggle mightily this season, but they are really doing good.....since CMC is injured. Just shows that a single player isn't that important and markets often overreact when important players are missing (unless it's a QB of course).
Chargers also doing very well despite all those players missing on defense. But Tampa should still win this, HC will be tough to beat though.

This was only close at first split


Looks like that, yes. Although the GC guys who are not superb TTers tend to lose fewer time in later TT's. Only hope for an exciting race in terms of GC winner is that the Giro always produces some crazy stages with huge gaps, which is rarely the case in other races nowadays. But the field is weak this year for reasons we all know (and can't hear no more), so it's probably enough to keep Yates in check and ride defensively.

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A sucker parlay for today:

Almeida tb Masnada (1.27)
Ulissi tb Battaglin (1.41)
parlay @1.79

QuickStep will give full support to Almeida today, because he has good chances to take the maglia rosa in the coming days.
The finish today suits Ulissi very well and if Matthews/Sagan weren't in the race, he would be overwhelming favourite to win. It's something Battaglin likes as well, but he is not as strong as Ulissi in these kind of uphill sprints.

Agree, though I don't think the Giants will score 17 here, maybe just a couple of FG's, if they get good field position via turnovers


This caught my attention too, but more the ML. Browns won two in a row now and should have gotten some confidence, but it was "just" against Bengals/Football Team. If Dallas is able to win the TO battle and score a bit more on their own TO, they should comfortably win this.

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I also like the Bucs -7 against the Chargers. Herbert had another good game, but the overall Chargers performance was not as good as against the Chiefs, which is normal when the hype has gone and there are no special circumstances (like playing your first game in your new stadium). On top of that, LA will miss important pieces of their defense with CB Harris, DE Ingram and DT Jones out for today; Bosa is not 100%.

I somehow like the Bengals to get their first W today against Jacksonville. This is probably because I saw the Jaguars last week and it was just pathetic (though the first two games were very solid, but divisional matchups with extra motiviation). Bengals should have already won @Steelers last week and this 1.75 today looks good enough to give it a try imo.

I won't touch the Raiders game, but wish everyone good luck with their bets on the Bills, I wouldn't feel comfortable betting on them today They struggled against Rams/Dolphins already and Raiders are a different team in home/away games.

What a nightmare this weeks MM is



With buwaytress publishing his picks we actually didn't find consensus on any game Lots of surprises and these odds hit thus far (average from Oddsportal):

4.55 (Sampdoria)
1.53 (Chelsea)
4.04 (Atletico draw)
3.43 (Spartak draw)
1.30 (Leipzig)
6.62 (Leeds draw)
2.32 (Betis)

And I was told that the leaders have already 5 correct ones, which is kind of crazy, but if you like to pick draws, you had a field day^^

I'll start my preparation for next week.

Giro starts today ladies and gentlemen

On the menu is a 15.1k individual time trial, which is not super demanding, but features a little climb (1.2k @4.8%) in the beginning.

Michael Matthews tb Geraint Thomas @2.23

Matthews is a good TTer on these shortish courses. These sprinters should have some advantage on the descent, where they could gain some valuable seconds on the non-sprinters. Matthews has an eye on the pink jersey for the next days (well, for tomorrow then basically) and also for wearing the points/sprinters jersey on October 25th in Milan, so he should be super motivated today. Thomas is among the favourites for today as well and rightfully so, but he doesn't have to go all out today and taking 100% risks. His goals are a bit different and more longterm, i.e. winning the Giro.

Well, I guess you will miss at least one future tournament in this series due to hangover and maybe another one for some other reason (probably a female reason ). This leaves you with only one opportunity to collect some more points. And since Globb0 will win tomorrow, you can get 9pts max, which might not be enough to make it.

And then you will get dsq'ed anyway, because you didn't pay the fee for tournament #5 (to yourself^^). So, I'll take any bet

Yep, well done with your bet, I was dead wrong once again But if there is something positive: I rather lose a bet 0-4 than with some annoying late goal.

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Don't understand the odds on Bielefeld today. They did well in Frankfurt although that draw was a bit lucky and then grinded out a 1-0 win against Cologne in their typical manner. As we know Werder is really poor at home and I wouldn't read too much into that win at Schalke (anyone beats Schalke). Bielefeld can be an annoying opponent, since they play very well organized defensively and are good on counter-attacks. 1.80 for Bielefeld X2 looks super tempting, but I already know what happens, if I play that bet And if Werder fails to even beat Bielefeld at home, against whom are they supposed to win then ?!

Stuttgart again super overrated, 2.25 for Leverkusen It's rare for Leverkusen to not have a win under their belt going into round 3, but they played two good teams in Leipzig/Wolfsburg. Stuttgart lost to Freiburg and then beat Mainz and we all saw how poor Mainz is atm. I would have expected something below 2.00, so good value on LEV me thinks.  You can check the odds for Cologne - Gladbach as a reference, where Gladbach is around 1.90. Cologne is a bit better than Stuttgart and Gladbach/Leverkusen I would rate equal at this point. So these Leverkusen odds make no sense.

Frankfurt vs Hoffenheim should be a good one to watch, but odds are ok. Lets see, what Freiburg can do in Dortmund, maybe they can get some upset here. And later today I am curious about the "new" Schalke then

Here is the new pimped sheet



Welcome @BitcoinHunt3r to our little but ever growing thread

We only found consensus on.....Fiorentina and that proved to be just the wrong game I spoiled the party twice and while Schalke getting a point at Leipzig is a quite ambitious pick, Flamengo has gazillions of Corona cases in their team, no ? They even wanted to postpone last weeks match, which wasn't allowed if I am not mistaken.

Where is the risky part in that ? Unless you play some AH-1 or more on Union, but your second bet doesn't suggest that. Union dnb looks pretty safe, nevertheless I am putting my money on Mainz today @3.35. For me it's pretty clear that Mainz players wanted their coach Beierlorzer gone and they did get the job done and he was sacked. A new coach, some unknown, was installed and I expect Mainz to be super sharp and motivated today and at least not lose. If they'll win is another topic, but I still don't see Union doing much this season. The draw at Gladbach was good for them, but they lost to Augsburg at home before and I rate Augsburg and Mainz pretty equal in terms of quality. Mainz has some issues with their personnel and sold Baku to Wolfsburg yesterday for 10mln, but I am not worried with that, this is all about motivation and passion this evening. I am more worried with the latest signings of Union (Karius, Pohjanpalo), but maybe they won't play already.

Looks nice and is definitely something that was missing and is helpful. I would recommend to change the sorting, i.e. put the next games on top and further in the future ones at the bottom. For example here in NFL you have to scroll a lot to get to Thursday Night Football for today.

Hmm, going through the thread and collecting all the picks and then the outcomes afterwards was really some task, but I think I got everything correct. Maybe it was from an earlier MM ? You can check your transactions history in your SB account and see when a/the prize was credited. From the date we can then see the week and I can double-check your result.

Looks like nobody wants to be the first to reveal his picks, so here are mine. I did some more research this time actually, but not expecting any better results:

Fiorentina - Sampdoria 1
Chelsea - Chrystal Palace 1
Atletico Madrid - Villareal 1
Spartak Moscow - Zenit St. Petersburg 2
RB Leipzig - Schalke 04 X
Leeds United - Manchester City 2
Valencia - Real Betis 1
Southampton - West Bromwich Albion 1
Arsenal - Sheffield United 1
Lazio - Inter 2
Manchester United - Tottenham 2
Juventus - Napoli 1
Barcelona - Sevilla 1
Olympique Lyonnais - Olympique de Marseille 1
Flamengo - Atletico Paranaense 2

I didn't format my picks too much this time, so you can use it better, if you want.

Good luck

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And here are the all-time stats, hope I made no mistakes for weeks 34-37:



@big_daddy has the best average with 8.0.
@Trofo has the most wins win 4.
@buwaytress has the top performance in a single MM with 12 correct ones. (It's pathetic that my best performance was 8, wtf)
@Avirunes has the worst performance in a single MM with 2 correct ones.

Let me try, although I won't bet on this game.

Saw this tweet the other day:


Source: https://twitter.com/ZacStevensDNVR/status/1310636233555468290

Jets only average 12.3pts/game this season but with a depleted Broncos defense, they should be more successful and get some rhythm on offense, while they probably don't have to score a lot to get the W, because the Broncos only average 15pts/game themselves and they only start their third string QB as you mentioned.

Jets played some good teams thus far (as did the Broncos) with Bills, 49ers and Colts; two of those were on the road. If they are interested in getting some wins under their belt this season - you never know - then this is the best opportunity for a longer time. Next up for them are Cardinals, Chargers, Bills again, Chiefs, Patriots. Then they will play the Dolphins back to back with their BYE inbetween, where they could take their next win(s).

The Jets are poor for a long time, but they normally beat the teams they are supposed to beat at home. Broncos generally speaking are poor travellers:

2019: 2-6
2018: 3-5
2017: 1-7

Broncos winning by 7+pts is of course possible (this is NFL after all ), but in an expected low scoring game, this is more unlikely. Nobody knows how Rypien will do, but an INT/pick6 here and there will kill this bet.

Hi Poker friends

I saw you were a bit impatient with @Steamtyme, so I updated the sheet and stats.

The ranking after 5/8 tournaments played:



@Improved, @arallmuus and @Iv4n look pretty safe, the rest still has some work to do, especially our bigmouth and host @efialtis, who always is a lock for the Grand Final at the start of every series according to himself, but so far he wasn't seen at the Champions table.

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The most loyal players:



Unfortunately @Trofo skipped the third tournament of this series and we are down to two players who joined every single tournament so far. What was the prize again for the last man standing ?

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Point finishes:



@Betwrong and @Improved top this category with @Iv4n going strong with 5/5 for this series. @figmentofmyass and me are fading a bit here unfortunately.

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Money finishes (based on Top4 as always):



With @Improved doing so well in this series, he now tops this category, but @arallmuus was able to climb some places as well. @yahoo62278 still Top10, although he left the series for a long time and his short comeback for series 4 didn't result in any money finishes (yet).

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Average finishes over all series:



@famososMuertos jumps into Top3 right away, but the sample size is still very small.
@kolloh is slowly but surely improving his average after not being able to get anything going in the first few tournaments after he joined the series. But recent results show that he got to know the players and their style better by now.
@Hhampuz and @Steamtyme have rather bad averages with 10.8 and 11.0 - they either do very good or exit early-ish.
@Globb0 is on a little streak with finishing 14th place three times in a row. His results are kind of "funny" anyway: 14-2-18-16-16-2-12-17-2-14-14-14, so either bad or second place. Hope you will get your first tourney win asap, that stream is amazing

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The Lottery:



Atm there are 2 prizes á 8.600 chips each for the lottery. As a reminder: If you paid the extra chips to efialtis, but do not join the tournament, these chips are considered a donation, unless you request a refund, which you can still do now, if you want those chips back. But for now, they are donations and go 200/200 towards the Lottery & Grand Final.

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Some screenshots are a bit blurry, sorry for that. Good luck everyone for the last 3 tournaments of this series and then also for Grand & small final & Lottery