I agree with you brother, but what bothered me in that blog post is that the OP said it's "just for laughs", it really pissed me off.
I agree, but my suspicion is the reason he said that is so that people would not wager their hard-earned saving expecting that that is what
would happen, rather than just what
might happen. I get the same feeling - when I post cycle graphs and show how BTC looks like it's following the same path again, I am aware that there are no guarantees, but I don't know if everybody is. I worry someone will take cycles as literal then if they lose money come looking for someone to blame!
I'm the one who I should ask you now, as you are into bubble analysis, does what the OP said, is feasible ?
Short answer - I say yes, definitely feasible.
Longer answer - from what I have seen, I think there definitely are fractal formations in Bitcoin prices, and as long as it remains an unregulated market, I think cycles will repeat. He presents a well thought out case on repeating patterns, some of which I have found as well. I am not educated on the formal Elliot-wave theory, so can't say for sure, but given his time frame and price ranges/increase, I say quite possible.
All what you've said makes sense, I agree.
Another question please, 2x-4x per year, feasible ?
I'd say this is exactly where are have been trending over the past 2 years, so yes, 2x-4x is definitely reasonable. In fact we have been on a strong trend of doubling about every 8 months. I plotted it out
here:
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FnHEzOYj.png&t=663&c=BYxzrPMVyF8fqQ)
We are actually trending a little faster than what I plotted there (which was doubling about every 10 months), so I say 8 months is more correct. Note this is a more recent trend (down from the more extreme exponential growth in the past), but still definitely
exponential.
At last you've shown up our dear Hacknoid, where have you been brother, I missed you a lot
![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
Well, I enjoyed your answer as I know you are a little conservative guy, so I'm peacefully rested over here
![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif)
What do you think about the below log scale (in details please
![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
) ?