Fakhoury (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1027
Permabull Bitcoin Investor
|
|
February 01, 2017, 11:44:44 AM |
|
|
Feb. 14, 2010: I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
|
|
|
Fakhoury (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1027
Permabull Bitcoin Investor
|
|
February 01, 2017, 11:45:34 AM |
|
|
Feb. 14, 2010: I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
|
|
|
Fakhoury (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1027
Permabull Bitcoin Investor
|
|
February 01, 2017, 11:48:23 AM |
|
|
Feb. 14, 2010: I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
|
|
|
Fakhoury (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1027
Permabull Bitcoin Investor
|
|
February 01, 2017, 11:53:06 AM |
|
|
Feb. 14, 2010: I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
|
|
|
Fakhoury (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1027
Permabull Bitcoin Investor
|
|
February 01, 2017, 11:53:23 AM |
|
|
Feb. 14, 2010: I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
|
|
|
Fakhoury (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1027
Permabull Bitcoin Investor
|
|
February 01, 2017, 11:53:43 AM |
|
|
Feb. 14, 2010: I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
|
|
|
Fakhoury (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1027
Permabull Bitcoin Investor
|
|
February 01, 2017, 11:54:52 AM |
|
|
Feb. 14, 2010: I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
|
|
|
Fakhoury (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1027
Permabull Bitcoin Investor
|
|
February 01, 2017, 11:58:47 AM |
|
|
Feb. 14, 2010: I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
|
|
|
Fakhoury (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1027
Permabull Bitcoin Investor
|
|
February 01, 2017, 12:06:24 PM |
|
|
Feb. 14, 2010: I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
|
|
|
Fakhoury (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1027
Permabull Bitcoin Investor
|
|
February 01, 2017, 12:10:21 PM |
|
|
Feb. 14, 2010: I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
|
|
|
Fakhoury (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1027
Permabull Bitcoin Investor
|
|
February 01, 2017, 12:18:28 PM |
|
|
Feb. 14, 2010: I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
|
|
|
Fakhoury (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1027
Permabull Bitcoin Investor
|
|
February 01, 2017, 12:19:57 PM |
|
|
Feb. 14, 2010: I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
|
|
|
Fakhoury (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1027
Permabull Bitcoin Investor
|
|
February 01, 2017, 12:24:15 PM |
|
|
Feb. 14, 2010: I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
|
|
|
Fakhoury (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1027
Permabull Bitcoin Investor
|
|
February 01, 2017, 12:24:57 PM |
|
|
Feb. 14, 2010: I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
|
|
|
Fakhoury (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1027
Permabull Bitcoin Investor
|
|
February 01, 2017, 12:26:39 PM |
|
|
Feb. 14, 2010: I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
|
|
|
Fakhoury (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1027
Permabull Bitcoin Investor
|
|
February 01, 2017, 12:31:49 PM |
|
|
Feb. 14, 2010: I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
|
|
|
Fakhoury (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1027
Permabull Bitcoin Investor
|
|
February 01, 2017, 12:32:16 PM |
|
|
Feb. 14, 2010: I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
|
|
|
hacknoid
|
|
February 02, 2017, 01:10:47 PM |
|
I agree with you brother, but what bothered me in that blog post is that the OP said it's "just for laughs", it really pissed me off. I agree, but my suspicion is the reason he said that is so that people would not wager their hard-earned saving expecting that that is what would happen, rather than just what might happen. I get the same feeling - when I post cycle graphs and show how BTC looks like it's following the same path again, I am aware that there are no guarantees, but I don't know if everybody is. I worry someone will take cycles as literal then if they lose money come looking for someone to blame! I'm the one who I should ask you now, as you are into bubble analysis, does what the OP said, is feasible ?
Short answer - I say yes, definitely feasible. Longer answer - from what I have seen, I think there definitely are fractal formations in Bitcoin prices, and as long as it remains an unregulated market, I think cycles will repeat. He presents a well thought out case on repeating patterns, some of which I have found as well. I am not educated on the formal Elliot-wave theory, so can't say for sure, but given his time frame and price ranges/increase, I say quite possible. All what you've said makes sense, I agree. Another question please, 2x-4x per year, feasible ? I'd say this is exactly where are have been trending over the past 2 years, so yes, 2x-4x is definitely reasonable. In fact we have been on a strong trend of doubling about every 8 months. I plotted it out here: We are actually trending a little faster than what I plotted there (which was doubling about every 10 months), so I say 8 months is more correct. Note this is a more recent trend (down from the more extreme exponential growth in the past), but still definitely exponential.
|
|
|
|
Fakhoury (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1027
Permabull Bitcoin Investor
|
|
February 02, 2017, 06:56:18 PM |
|
I agree with you brother, but what bothered me in that blog post is that the OP said it's "just for laughs", it really pissed me off. I agree, but my suspicion is the reason he said that is so that people would not wager their hard-earned saving expecting that that is what would happen, rather than just what might happen. I get the same feeling - when I post cycle graphs and show how BTC looks like it's following the same path again, I am aware that there are no guarantees, but I don't know if everybody is. I worry someone will take cycles as literal then if they lose money come looking for someone to blame! I'm the one who I should ask you now, as you are into bubble analysis, does what the OP said, is feasible ?
Short answer - I say yes, definitely feasible. Longer answer - from what I have seen, I think there definitely are fractal formations in Bitcoin prices, and as long as it remains an unregulated market, I think cycles will repeat. He presents a well thought out case on repeating patterns, some of which I have found as well. I am not educated on the formal Elliot-wave theory, so can't say for sure, but given his time frame and price ranges/increase, I say quite possible. All what you've said makes sense, I agree. Another question please, 2x-4x per year, feasible ? I'd say this is exactly where are have been trending over the past 2 years, so yes, 2x-4x is definitely reasonable. In fact we have been on a strong trend of doubling about every 8 months. I plotted it out here: We are actually trending a little faster than what I plotted there (which was doubling about every 10 months), so I say 8 months is more correct. Note this is a more recent trend (down from the more extreme exponential growth in the past), but still definitely exponential. At last you've shown up our dear Hacknoid, where have you been brother, I missed you a lot Well, I enjoyed your answer as I know you are a little conservative guy, so I'm peacefully rested over here What do you think about the below log scale (in details please ) ?
|
Feb. 14, 2010: I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
|
|
|
Fakhoury (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1027
Permabull Bitcoin Investor
|
|
February 02, 2017, 06:57:32 PM |
|
|
Feb. 14, 2010: I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
|
|
|
|