Sipping scotch only works profitably when you're holding BTC, not fiat

Btw. my castle, Malla, is now on day 8. The Day 0 party was nice, but revealed that we need moar bedrooms. So let's build some

I have commenced reparations there and the Château-Hôtel Malla is ready to open this summer. Even before that, if you really want to see me (or the place), just contact my reservations manager (contact info in the link).

I am surprised what kind of sissies you are.. Seemingly never had a million dollars yourselves...

Satoshi is welcome to my castle if he needs protection.

I cannot predict such short timespans.

The biggest market mover is the people who thought they had bitcoins in Mt.Gox. When they replace (which I believe is going on), the price can rise a lot. We are talking about 100,000s of coins of extra demand.

No. We are trying to sell that 2k.

That is one. Another one is that we are trying to develop a methodology to derive the same statistics for every month back in time since Bitcoin's inception. It takes some time but will give us 58 results instead of one

Greetings from Malla,

No, I am not ignoring anything, thank you for your concerns.

Try reading the OP:



What the method is, is discussed in the thread. A nice post of mine, from the day when the figures were last updated, summarizes it.

Since the metrics are quite soft methods, lots of 'educated guesswork' will be involved in interpreting the fall of gox to the accounts. Besides, 1/3 most plausible scenarios still includes the goxcoins that are just seized by USGov. Another scenario is that the keys are temporarily lost but may be partially recovered. Only the 2011 thief/hack/ponzi scenario means that the coins were dispersed then, and double-accounted ever since.

Since we are talking "only" about 6% of the coins existing now, the impact is less drastic than you would think. Every month, the # of people in the categories changes by 10% to 100%.

Is the distribution of gox accounts somehow different than the general distribution? Ideas?

Y'know, at these levels, we rather hide from the camera. But I heard from the MC that a 17-seater Hummer Limo will be there. I personally doubt the number of seats though but he said that it was the coolest car in Estonia and especially suitable because everyone fits in.

I am going to my castle party and will be offline for a few days.

I've done some market analysis and decided that 575 is a fair price for bitcoin as of now. It is now -0.114 below the trendline. During the slump last summer, starting from the capitulation low and ending the day when daily average ATH was broken (122 days by the way), we were on average -0.251 below the trend. If we stay at this price until April 13, 2014, we will reach -0.251. This is regard as realistic. There is no need to go down, the trendline is going up and takes care that we will sink further below trendline as is predicted by the model.

I see the possibility for a further low below 400 as slim at the moment. If further flashcrashes occur, my target for the low point is 450-500.

The capitulation happened already. If you did not feel it, the reason is that here in the oldtimer threads in Bitcointalk people knew what was coming and were not afraid. Outside, people and media and newbies were, and still are, asking if Bitcoin is dead. There was blood on the streets. Don't expect that it will turn worse. It cannot. It can only go up from here.

There is no need to be hasty with purchases. Bitcoin is not going down, but neither is it going up. The trendline logistics prevent it from rising, and I would see 700 as a shorting price if I was in the intention to gamble now. In reality I just transferred the overmajority of my trading capital to cold wallets. If you want to buy now, bidding 500-550 is probably enough.

It is frivolous to think that history could exactly predict future, but because Bitcoin behaves self-similarly like a fractal, and because my past predictions based on this method have been quite amazingly correct, let's just calculate the day when ATH will be taken: June 27, 2014.

From there, it will likely take only 30 days to make a new ATH that will last several months.

Unless the Chasm interrupts the underlying, 5-year old growth paradigm in a way that nothing in Bitcoin's history has yet been able to do.

Cash and castles   

How about you cease from now on posting these things to this thread. You have threads of your own to do it, and the interested ones (have to) be intelligent enough to find them, thank you for understanding!

Just a general information - ALL of what is needed for producing any USD/BTC price charts for the duration of the exchange prices (7/2010-) can be found in Bitcoincharts. Just select custom chart, 'Load raw data', paste into Excel and go.

But do not post it here under this thread because this one is only for Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend.

I don't know of it, but maybe in Tallinn.

From the OP:


You are all the time free to review the largest addresses. This thread is calculated using other metrics.

It would be just legendary to have those coins sitting forever in known addresses 

It is going down - 500 to be tested soon.

Reason: we are not that much below the long-term trend, so given the sentiment, we are "hanging in the air" when the solid ground is in 400-500, below that is a steal and above that is hopes.

Generally it goes in so called "waves", which means that it will next hit 500. This enables the experienced traders to make money on the markets at the expense of the inexperienced.

I actually did sell some, hard to believe it has steam to raise above 600 now. The train is not leaving anybody, but the tide has turned. 500 here we come!