rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[creekbore]

There were a lot of false dawns between May and September last year, to expect a reversal this soon is pretty outlandish (but not impossible).  

Do not underestimate the power of the 3.5 million USD liquidity sucker punch, that the 10K whale dealt to the market. Much of that capital would be leverage.

I'm not as inclined to agree.  I think there is a lot more "loose change" ie investment that is purely speculative and owned, than you realise.  I say this as someone who has been looking at Bitcoin for over a year now and on these boards the same time.  But no doubt you will disagree vehemently, but perhaps that's because you spend a lot of time at BitFinex?

In my very brief experience of trading Bitcoin or trading anything else for that matter, I find that an over-belief in the impact of news events is a great weakness. With the odd notable exceptions, at best these news events are catalysers of market movement, not directors of the market. The market was heading down this neck of the woods at any rate, Gox fear just helped it get here. The big issue around Gox is not so much it going down, but the mass of coins in the hands of cyber thieves (no doubt Mark Karpeles being amongst them) many of whom are looking to capitalise in a clear declining market.

I wish I could be so assertive about my beliefs after such a short period -- all I know for sure is I'm still learning.  News and rumour have huge effects on this market more than most...everyone is looking for a strategic advantage, knowledge is power etc.  Never under-estimate the power of a rumour to change people's behaviour.

But I agree the market had to cool off...and its still hot to touch...the Bitcoin bear markets are getting shorter but we'll need at least a month I suspect.

I wouldn't worry about 'cyber thieves'....I suspect that 10K the other day may have been from nefarious origins.  Dodgy coins have been liquidated and on their way since...well, the beginning.  And I don't think the 'Karpeles Coins' are lost, simply irretrievable.  And of course dodgy fiat goes in and out of circulation...it doesn't drop currency rates.

EDIT: As life imitates art

This from rotters
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/26/mtgox-subpoena-idUSL3N0LV0UZ20140226

Feb 25 (Reuters) - Bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox has received a subpoena from federal prosecutors in New York, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing a person familiar with the matter.

Mt. Gox, once the world's biggest bitcoin exchange, abruptly stopped trading on Tuesday and its chief executive said the business was at "a turning point," sparking concerns about the future of the unregulated virtual currency.

The subpoena was sent this month and asked Mt. Gox to preserve certain documents among other things, the Journal said.

[Syke]

What exactly are you trying to accomplish? Get an invite?  I could suggest better methods....

Of course I had it photoshoped right away, how else could the craftsmen know how to repair it?

That the building exists, you can easily find from wikipedia and google maps "Malla, Estonia".

Streetview from 2011: http://goo.gl/maps/LJ4k2

[seleme]

Lot of money to spent on that yet.

[skibe]

What exactly are you trying to accomplish? Get an invite?  I could suggest better methods....

Of course I had it photoshoped right away, how else could the craftsmen know how to repair it?

That the building exists, you can easily find from wikipedia and google maps "Malla, Estonia".

Streetview from 2011: http://[Suspicious link removed]/maps/LJ4k2

wow, once that place is renovated it's going to be beautiful.  congratulations to rpietila on the purchase

[TERA]

the 45% flash recovery does not fit in with any previous bitcoin recovery. it is always a 20% recovery followed by a resistance that takes days or weeks to get though. This is not behaving at all like a capitulation bottom but more like a silk road style flashcrash recovery.

[creekbore]

the 45% flash recovery does not fit in with any previous bitcoin recovery. it is always a 20% recovery followed by a resistance that takes days or weeks months or years to get though. This is not behaving at all like a capitulation bottom but more like a silk road style flashcrash recovery.

FTFY

[chessnut]

Great call last night Mr. Rpietila. Im sure this is a bottom of some kind.

my TA was ironically precise, but not very accurate. I said it need to pass 431, but it goes and bounces off 431!

lesson learned, dont be greedy. I should have snapped up a couple at 430.

I will watch eagerly as it passes cerca 630, that would be good EW confirmation to me that we will unlikely see 430 ever again.

[cosmofly]

Great call last night Mr. Rpietila. Im sure this is a bottom of some kind.

my TA was ironically precise, but not very accurate. I said it need to pass 431, but it goes and bounces off 431!

lesson learned, dont be greedy. I should have snapped up a couple at 430.

I will watch eagerly as it passes cerca 630, that would be good EW confirmation to me that we will unlikely see 430 ever again.

What price did u buy at?

I'm pretty sure we will revisit $400 range soon, no hurry to buy

[molecular]

Hey wasn't it rpetelia or someone in here who said "the recovery can't just happen with a flash and a bang"? That looked like a flash and a bang to me. Probably a short squeeze. I can't imagine that the entire 32% range of 400-525 is just going to be hit once for 12 hours and then never seen again. That would be like if in 2013 it went from 66 straight to 86 but this actually took a week.

Ah good. Your active. I was looking for advice from a trader on here (who isn't a complete halfwit).

What is your view on the next 12 hours in Bitcoin? To me, 750 looks a sure bet, and beyond that lies 780 which will prove a very strong resistance level due to the vast level of liquidity that the 10K whale tricked the automated bot traders into buying into. I have been long since $490, and soon I go to my kip. Now, I am of the opinion that we definitely will see a retracement possibly right back into the $400's before we get out the $500s. Question is, is there enough strength in the market to get up to this $779 level (many people might not know exactly why this is likely to prove a very strong resistance level) or will the retracement kick in at a lower price level?

Similar situation in December:



(too lazy to draw rectangle and arrow. Would put arrow saying "you are here" at Dec. 18th, 4pm and rectangle around the preceding V shape)

That time we didn't visit back to $400... well, until yesterday that is.

My best guess is still it'll play out similarly. "Extended V bottom":



EDIT: If it plays out like Dec 18th, we'd have formed a nice "double bottom" like in aftermath of April, no?

I'm putting my cards on the V shaped extension. Selling now and trying to rebuy around 520.

On the other hand: there seems to be quite some buying pressure left... interesting times, indeed.

[EuroTrash]

Lot of money to spent on that yet.

Work is cheap in Estonia. It's a country with European taste, good infrastructure, cheap prices and beautiful women. If only the weather was not so cold. The last one not being  a problem for a Finnish chap anyway.

[rpietila]

For all who are asking - Yes, this does not look like it is over yet. Too sharp recovery shows that the market has pressure in both directions.

I think that we are overextended and will go down from here before the end of March. How much? That is harder to say.

EDIT: Those TA guys know better how to describe the current +50% in 24 hours situation, and how long it typically takes before it resolves. I just know that right now would be a good place to sell, rather than buy.

EDIT2: No, it is too risky to sell anymore. Up, up, UP!! 

[TERA]

fuck i give up with trading after reversal. i have cast one last net in the 500s and 400s and will be withdrawing all fills.

[chessnut]

What price did u buy at?

I'm pretty sure we will revisit $400 range soon, no hurry to buy

Im not so sure that we will see 400 again. what will drive it? the worst news is over - Mt Gox lost 700k Bitcoins. that was a catalyst (and perhaps not even accurate)

sub 400 took a lot of selling pressure, and we bounced big. If you ask me, when we pass 630, the down trend is over.

I bought at $500. I might have got in at 470 if BTCe wasnt under ddos attack, but oh well.

[creekbore]

This chart is from the period 1 May 2013 to 29 Sept 2013 and is very instructive if you want to see parallels with more recent events.



We see the double bottom and the reversal confirmed with the SMA200 being broken; but we also see a long grind back before exponential growth takes hold.  I think these recovery phases are contracting in terms of time but I still wouldn't be packing your space gear just yet.

[cAPSLOCK]

We see the double bottom and the reversal confirmed with the SMA200 being broken; but we also see a long grind back before exponential growth takes hold.  I think these recovery phases are contracting in terms of time but I still wouldn't be packing your space gear just yet.

I think this is very instructive.

And yet, we have not seen this exact market condition before...  this time it's a little different in my humble opinion.

[RicePicker]

This chart is from the period 1 May 2013 to 29 Sept 2013 and is very instructive if you want to see parallels with more recent events.



We see the double bottom and the reversal confirmed with the SMA200 being broken; but we also see a long grind back before exponential growth takes hold.  I think these recovery phases are contracting in terms of time but I still wouldn't be packing your space gear just yet.

The thing is that if you were smart enough you probably got in around $400-450 range. Even if it goes down to say $350-380 that is a minor risk that most people should take. Even if it goes down again its going to go back right up again at some point...

[chessnut]

For all who are asking - Yes, this does not look like it is over yet. Too sharp recovery shows that the market has pressure in both directions.

I think that we are overextended and will go down from here before the end of March. How much? That is harder to say.

EDIT: Those TA guys know better how to describe the current +50% in 24 hours situation, and how long it typically takes before it resolves. I just know that right now would be a good place to sell, rather than buy.

EDIT2: No, it is too risky to sell anymore. Up, up, UP!! 

Lol I was just looking at the charts and considering selling since you mentioned it, and thinking, very well it is going up too fast, but where the hell would I actually sell?? if it passes 630, there is just simply no target to sell. It would have to hit a ceiling.
there are only buy target that I see.

[cosmofly]

For all who are asking - Yes, this does not look like it is over yet. Too sharp recovery shows that the market has pressure in both directions.

I think that we are overextended and will go down from here before the end of March. How much? That is harder to say.

EDIT: Those TA guys know better how to describe the current +50% in 24 hours situation, and how long it typically takes before it resolves. I just know that right now would be a good place to sell, rather than buy.

EDIT2: No, it is too risky to sell anymore. Up, up, UP!! 

Thank u rpietila for being always honest and not sticking to one opinion, you turn bull and turn bear when required this is why you own 10,000BTC+ and we the peasants don't have so much, truly a successful person i must say.

I said yesterday that the current run up was way too quick and too strong, imo it is the chinese playing art-of-war, Bitcoin has become a Chinese dominant market and they are extending this whole thing and made it like a casino

A proper bottom means the price would stabilize for a bit in like $400-$500 range, i remember in april bubble we sticked around $70-$100 range for a while, that was a proper bottom/capitulation. I also remember when gold peaks at $1900, everytime a sharp drop happend, it went up pretty quick and ppl said it's the bottom but look where it went down to.

i predict we will go down again at EXACTLY on the 16th of March, i have strong TA research to back this up with a pro-trader. All i can say is wait till 16th of March and see for yourself and check back on my post!

[chessnut]

The move has been stunted for the night. capped by 610, I think we will test the 500 level again. this little bull run was too steep.

[rpietila]

The move has been stunted for the night. capped by 610, I think we will test the 500 level again. this little bull run was too steep.

I actually did sell some, hard to believe it has steam to raise above 600 now. The train is not leaving anybody, but the tide has turned. 500 here we come!