I might quibble a bit with your assertion that moving bitcoin from POW to POS is "not possible" - because I believe that it is possible.. but it is not going to happen... it's a fucking stupid idea because POW is the invention that bitcoin brought... and moving bitcoin to POS is like uninventing it..., hahahahaha.. pie in the sky to be even suggesting.. and yeah.. what you going to do force bitcoin underground and then kill all the bitcoiners.. that is not going to work out very well...

It's like making the wheel illegal.. the wheel is invented, and anyone who is caught using the wheel is going to be prosecuted to the utmost of the law.. .. some folks had compared it to making math illegal (or gravity). From now you have to follow certain kinds of math charts that are "acceptable" but if you go outside of those math charts and you follow other "more advanced" math principles, you will be prosecuted to the utmost.. blah blah blah.. yeah. they can do it.. but people are not going to comply.. turn the use of POW into a scoff law.,. because people are still going to do it..

but just have to go underground because it is illegal.. and they might not even go underground because no one believes the bullshit... so then it causes the politicians to lose their jobs.. or their lives if they insist upon such nonsense they would be taken out because no one (or at least almost no one) believe them. .. so are they that fucking dumb to play that card...

 I believe I differ from you in the sense that I know that the powers that be can play the card to make POW illegal and I know that they can talk about playing the card to make POW illegal, and surely now that not too many people understand the difference between POW and POS, they will get some traction in their dumbass arguments (that sound appealing on their face), but more and more people are learning that POW is the actual invention that makes a difference.. so once people learn that POW is the actual invention, then it is going to sound completely retarded for anyone to actually be suggesting dumbass retarded ideas that POS is actually adding any kind of substantial or meaningful value to anything except perpetuating the system that already exists (and is not working very well in terms of allowing a kind of distributed fairness).


Hahahaha

That's another way of phrasing/framing the matter.


Here's a case in point.

You see even long term bitcoiners don't know what the fuck bitcoin is and what makes bitcoin tick and what bitcoin is actually contributing... so there you go.. "the masternode" theory.. or something like that...

Make bitcoin moar better, right?

 

... maybe I should make my own little point here?

Fuck POS

Fuck the ESG bullshit.. virtual signalling vaporware ideas nonsense...... don't even acknowledge their baloney framing of these matters..  ---- bitcoin is already gravitating towards more efficient energy usages .. not that people even need to be told how to use energy if they are paying for it... without any help and quite likely that bitcoin mining is going to continue to gravitate towards efficient energy usages... without any patronizing guidances regard what might be nicer blah blah blah (fuck greta too.. she did not invent blah blah blah) ways to mine urs lil bitcoinies..

Thanks for your explanation, and it seems to me that it is a bit more clear what is being talked about... even though I still am having a bit of trouble having the whole value of the exercise to sink in... but still at lease when you use the term 169-week moving average, then at least, I see how the tweaks are being made to which amount of time in the weekly moving average is being used in order to attempt to answer the original question that d_eddie had raised..

I would still assert that I still do not quite understand the explanation about why the 169-week moving average works but at least I have a better understanding regarding what is being talked about and the attempt to get to the shortest one in which the spot price stays higher.. something like that... .. I know it is getting at a different question to assert that the ATH spot price in December 2017 had reached $19,666, and therefore at what point did the spot price cross back over without going back down below that.. which would be around 3 years, but you are going to get different answers when using weekly moving average prices rather than focusing on spot price - even if we might be comparing and contrasting spot price with weekly moving averages or maybe picking some other period to get a moving average - because frequently we are going to consider the spot price to be way to whimsical and volatile to even be representative regarding what is actually going on when accounting for both volume and periods of time that BTC is traded at various price points.

so yeah, we can refer to the spot price or various moving averages.. whether we are referring to daily, weekly or other moving averages, and we can come up with all kinds of possible measurements.. which might end up  causing us some new ways of attempting to look at the matter... and also in terms of where we might be at regarding trying to get to fuck you status.. or maintaining or stash or shaving some off.

Also, the degree to which a current price dynamic is causing a pattern that is outside of normal happenings can be insightful regarding how historically low we might be or how historically high we might be - and even if it does not exactly (and definitively) inform us regarding which way the BTC price might go in the short-term from that point, it should likely help us to assign more realistic probabilities, so that we are somewhat grounded in our expectations rather than completely expecting some kind of result that has low likelihoods of happening from that point.


Makes more sense.. again thanks for those various clarifications and fleshing it out a bit more...

Looks really good... it's like a model of a good submission.. so not a bad idea to have it out there, and like I already mentioned, it seems that theymos is not on any precise schedule to make updates to merit sources, but you never know if he might end up making some adjustments at some point.  I am going to browse through your thread later.. I have put it in my "get to it later" list of tabs to look through.

I watched it.. about 13 minutes of experience/perspective of life in a bunker.

I am not quite sure why you are saying that guys like me (and I suppose other regular members in this thread) need to watch this video.  What is the point that you want us to get from this?  There are life and death issues that people have to deal with and we should take that into account?  I am not sure about the point.. Yes, he is saying that he does not want to be conquered and would rather die than be conquered by the Russians.  

Of course, if someone is in a warzone and they have bombs dropping around them, their priorities are going to change.  Of course, any of us could end up in that kind of situation in short notice, without realizing that such a situation is coming.  Again.. is there something specific that you are directing towards me and other guys here degxtra1?


You understand that the fact that a lot of shorts are opening up does not necessarily mean that the BTC price is going down, right? even though you can see that people are betting BIG in that DOWNity direction, right?


Usually if you quote someone, you need to say who it is.... even better if you provide a link (kind of like a bonus courtesy)   Otherwise readers are going to get confused, and you might get blamed for the lack of attribution.. including that you should know better than to fail/refuse to make such proper attributions.

I doubt that the coins/projects that are pegged to bitcoin are going to be as criticized as some other projects/coins... Surely one of the problems will be if the project has its own coin/token, then there will be a question about whether it really is supporting bitcoin or just wanting to print its own money.  I don't claim to be an expert so there might be ways that projects might end up having their own token..l but they are not printing money but instead tied/pegged to bitcoin...  Is it BIP300 that attempts to create sidechains that would cause various shitcoins to end up getting pegged to bitcoin as a second layer.. but some people still do not like that because it seems to still facilitate or enable the proliferation of shitcoins - even though pegged to bitcoin.


That's right.

Tick tock the next CB post.


I wonder from where you are getting your data Phil_S.... especially regarding the current 200-Week moving average.

This website shows the 200-week moving average at about $20,304.50 currently (and moving up about $10 per day), which is not inconsistent with bitcoin wisdom showing about the same.

In other words, why is your current 200-week moving average nearly $2,500 larger and purportedly moving up 3x per day higher than $10 per day, when you say it's moving up $30 per day?



Ok.. so it is ONLY me who does not know what Phil_S is referring to and how it differs from the 200-week moving average?

I am having some troubles with your way of framing this matter, Tash...

One central issue seems to be that governments do not even feel that they need to tax in order to spend for war.. they will spend for war with printed money.. if they actually had to tax the people to pay for war, they would have to actually deal with disagreement from the plebs.. so an easier (and sneakier) way around actually taxing us is to just print money.. because even though printing money is a kind of tax.. it is much harder to identify as such.. and less likely that there is even going to be any kind of attempt, whatsoever, to seek consent.


Doesn't seem too relevant, unless this is your way of saying that either you are getting back into BTC or that you are not necessarily waiting for the BTC spot price to meet the 200-week moving average before you get back into BTC.

There may be a way to make the BTC/ETH pair seem relevant to BTC without getting too caught up on baloney-talk that relates to how shitcoins are performing, even if you are comparing them to BTC... in a seemingly lame attempt to suggest that they are relevant merely because you paired one or more of them up with BTC.

Hahahahaha

That's one way of phrasing the matter.. Mr.. doesn't like CBDCs (aka cAPSLOCK)  but wants to talk about the purported (in theory) pros and cons of them.... kind of a long name that you got there...#justsaying

 


Emphasis added above helps to justify the following responsive action:

Fuck crypto.. we are not talking about that topic in this thread... whatever you might mean by use of such term?


You mentioned bitcoin earlier in your response, and then you changed to some dumbass amorphous term "crypto"  whatever that means?... we are not talking about that, here.


Sure.  Trading is another way to attempt to make profits in bitcoin, but OP did not mention trading.. seems like trading entails different kinds of skills that likely are not the same skills as to making an assessment if taking out a loan (or using debt) might work to your advantage in terms of investing into bitcoin.


If you are talking about bitcoin, then why don't you use that term rather than turning it into "crypto?"

You know what?  The OP did not mention "crypto"... he mentioned bitcoin..

I would not want to put words in your mouth, but would your answer be the same if we were to substitute "bitcoin" for those two spots where you mentioned "crypto" or were you talking about something other than bitcoin?

Maybe you should provide a link to your merit source application here in this thread so we can see it.. especially since you mentioned it......   Many people (including yours truly) do not like to search around for the post about which you had referred.. so more convenient to actually provide a link whenever referring to another post or thread unless it is obvious to everyone how to get there quickly and without too much effort.

It does seem that theymos is fairly infrequent in his making a lot of changes to the merit sources, yet sometimes it might be difficult to know what is going on behind the scenes.. and even if he starts to make a few changes, he might even throw you into the mix of whatever changes he happens to be making..

Sure.. several times it may seem that either I am responding to some of your personal specifics, but also I am responding to ideas within a public thread that I feel to be in need of clarifying, and for sure many of us are going to both have differing opinions and also differing ways of expressing ourselves in regard to the topic.

For sure, you could argue that frequently I am taking this topic way beyond your original intentions, because you could force a kind of narrow interpretation of the topic, and assert if responses are not within those narrowly tailored parameters, then they are off topic, too... also another way would be to create a self-moderated thread and to delete any responses that go beyond the parameters that you had described in OP.


You know that there can be variations on this, too.  If you have gotten  up to $100 per week, but then your realize that $100 per week is beyond your budgeting capabilities, you could cut back to $50 per week, or $100 per month or $100 per quarter or whatever variation of cutting back that you deem to be appropriate rather than going all the way back to zero.

A lot of times, people get into all or nothing kinds of thinking and frequently they may need to either learn how to approach the topics in more incremental ways.. so yeah.. it could end up being a common error that some folks react too strongly to some situation and then end up screwing themselves because they may have approached their investment too much in "all or nothing" thinking kinds of ways.



That seems to be a kind of all or nothing kind of thinking.  People are going to end up making choices regarding how much they are going to allocate towards bitcoin, versus other possible investment including whether or not they will invest in any shitcoins.   And, surely there seems to be little reason to invest in shitcoins in the long term, especially if you have identified bitcoin as the leader in the sector, but there could still be some short term gambling  in those various shitcoins that might make sense for some people.. and even if you consider yourself to have developed a bitcoin maximalist perspective, you still might want to hold various kinds of assets beside bitcoin and dollars (or whatever happens to be your local fiat).



Some people come into bitcoin quite whimpily, so sure $100 could be considered sufficiently aggressive, especially if you may be in a position in which it is not very easy for you to ensure that you are actually going to have $100 per week.  And, of course there are some people in which $100 per week would be considered a kind of pocket change level.


Sometimes it is important to figure out whether increasing or decreasing your level might be good for your own circumstances, and of course, no one should be feeling like s/he does not have enough emergency funds and end up dipping into bitcoin at a time that is anything other than your own choosing, so in that regard, sometimes we are going to be able to determine ahead of time if we might be stretching our budget too much.. and sometimes some people do not realize that they are overly investing because they have not sufficiently buttressed the remainder of their budget - which means that they may well be taking too many chances if they do not have a sufficient amount of cash reserves on hand for various emergencies or just for various changes in the cashflow that can happen from time to time.. and sometimes unexpectedly.

Since many of us who participate in this forum are bullish about long-term bitcoin fundamentals - or at least many of the regulars here.. cannot presume everyone is bullish about long term bitcoin fundamentals...   I doubt that anyone really knows anything more than a lot of us regulars here - except for sure they may be grappling with a lot of great advisors.. but that still would not necessarily mean that they are going to act on whatever information in front of them in ways that end up being correct.

Whether Bukeile has surrounded himself with bitcoin geniuses or not, even for a relative bitcoin newbie he has seemed to have locked into a decent number of the people who many of us trust within bitcoin maximalism circles (hate to label the bitcoin insiders in such a way because we have our own minds and even disagreements within bitcoin maximalism)..

I guess my main point is just to argue that no own really knows what is going to happen with bitcoin price dynamics, even though many of us bitcoin maxis do likely continue to believe that it does not necessarily hurt matters to be able to double down on investing when BTC prices are down - even though it is also likely that some folks who were going to be investors into such bond might be more timid during these kinds of times to be investing in such a thing.

No guarantees.. but seeming to be a 45%-ish discount compared to where BTC prices were in November.. and like Michael Saylor had said after the May 2021 correction down from $64,895 to $28,600-ish..  (maybe Saylor said it a bit hyperbolically?)  "we were going to buy anyhow, so we were glad to get some bitcoin in the mid-$30ks when they had been upper $50ks a month or so earlier -  either way we were buying, so it was nice to get them cheaper."

If you click on the link within hotpassion's post - two post above yours, then you will see that the update of the graph goes all the way to today's date.

Some of that is probably coming from the paper bitcoins.. who knows how long they are going to be successful.. sure a lot of us look forward to some day that they might end up getting reckt as fuck.. and we likely realize how that happens when they do not have bitcoin that they claim that they have.

Or they are betting on the bitcoin price without having actual bitcoin and never had it.. .. we know there are more and more vehicles for that.. but we still do not know how successful they are going to be in this ongoing battle. .. that involves the greatest wealth transfer in history.. if it works out as it seems likely to.



Fair enough.. if you get lemons.. make lemonade.. 


Let's see how it goes.  I doubt that I am blind to them.. or even from considering the various points that cAPSLOCK highlighted but I doubt I am going to be too excited when or if those various points are being spun here.. or if any member comes out with statements that there are "pros and cons to each" - whether coming from a long time member or a newbie.. so largely it seems to me that I was attempting to respond to the topic.. and not so much regarding which member raised it.. If you had raised it, I would have likely responded in the same way.. so I doubt that it matters so much who the member was who raised the overview statement of the "pros and cons to each" framing of the matter...

I have largely already made my points.. .. and we do not all have to agree anyhow.. largely this thread remains cleared from a lot of shitcoin talk and trolling because regular members do not give much leeway to topics that likely are going to devolve into what might start to seem like pure bitcoin bashing rather than attempting to consider where bitcoin actually fits into the overall game theory calculations that various governments are going to be making.. china being one of the prominent ones currently, but yeah likely a whole hell of a lot of governments are considering these kinds of creations..... but surely we cannot really stop if members want to persist with certain topics like that.. or even to play the devils advocate and argue the supposed pros including how the segments of the public are going to love them.. and yeah, segments of the public are going to be lulled into all kinds of bullshit.. but we should not be allowing the goofballs to frame our discussions here.. just like we don't let the shitcoiners frame our considerations of all the supposed deficiencies in bitcoin.. as they have been attempting to do as long as I have been participating here (sometimes worse than others... and by the way, we might be seeing the gold bugs coming out the woodwork too.. )...

Sure.. I can appreciate that... but it seems that CBDCs should be treated like a shitcoin as far as this thread is concerned... .. at least that is my tentative position.. no hard feelings against anyone who sounds like they are pumping that nonsense (even though strictly they would not be pumping them) but I doubt that it really serves us to be giving ammunition to trolls to get us devolving into that topic.. even though surely cAPSLOCK is not a troll.. .. but it seems that sometimes from maybe my narrow and stubborn perspective, it can become a bit distracting to be exploring all of those various fringe theories about this might happen, and that might happen and blah blah blah.. and fuck that... let's address them when they happen... that is if they happen..

Remember Stolfi used to talk about all of the various what ifs in relation to bitcoin.. and yeah.. the what ifs might happen.. and yeah he was technically correct that they might happen even while he largely continued to distract us and divert us from more important discussions, and from my perspective all of these negative potential scenarios are not really a great thing to be talking about here..unless there is some kind of direct connection to bitcoin..  at least not from my perspective and without some kind of concrete connection to what is actually happening rather than what might happen and laying out all the base cases why people consider CBDCs to be wonderful blah blah blah.. .. including that bitcoin is obviously preferable to that crap...

just like many of us could be making the case that various shitcoins can provide all kinds of benefits and liquidity for people to move their value around when they are potentially targeted by governments and when bitcoin might not work and blah blah blah, but we do not talk about those kinds of potentialities here... even if they might be happening... at least not mostly because those are slippery-slope devolution topics.. at least from my perspective... not even anything personally directed towards cAPSLOCK.. and yeah.. let's play it by ear if some members want to bring that crap up and how they choose to bring it up and they can do what they like, and they will likely get some backlash from some of us... but yeah.. maybe they will prevail and we will be talking about all the various CBDCs and how they can be used.. blah blah blah.. . especially if it goes too far down the road towards distracting speculation about stuff that may or may not happen.. .

I am just mad at you for your proclaiming some of the BTC price prediction ideas with such cock-suredness.. a couple of months ago.. .. .. but whatever, I don't hold grudges.. too much even though I have been mad at you for about two months.. .

hahahahaha

but it is not like my being mad at you started two months ago, either.

By the way, I just did a quickie look at the 200-week moving average.. and currently, it looks like it is going up about $10 per day.... hey $10 per day.. that's not bad.. remember when bitcoin was in the $250s?  $10 per day would be like 4% per day which would result in more than 100% per month (well 100% in 25 days)... cannot really complain about that... relatively speaking.

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/

You did not get it from me...


 


hahahaha

Oh?

You mean that you are not happy that your predicted BTC price range is holding up pretty well so far.. the first quarter of this calendar year.. to the extent that we ONLY have 3 weeks left in the 1st quarter?

It's possible that if we get above $50k then that might get dangerous for going up.. so isn't it better that we do not get above $46k?.. at least in order to stay range bound within your predicted BTC price range for the remainder of the calendar year?  (which was between $30k and $60k-ish if I recall.. or maybe you said $62k-ish for the top, I don't remember exactly).

Or do you believe that if we do not get enough of an upward BTC price movement in these times, then lower $30ks become less likely to hold?

I am not proclaiming to really know.. because I already said that I am not going to be comfortable with the $32,951 bottom being in until we get above $46k for a day, and in the past week or two, I have been actually starting to consider that we might need to get above $50k for a day for my same kind of increased confidence.. because I am even losing some confidence that getting above $46k for a day would be enough to proclaim the $32,951 bottom to be in (and that bottom was ONLY about 6 week ago, on January 24... seems like a long time that we have been bouncing around and not even able to get above $46k yet .. let alone getting above $50k.).

By the way, the depth of our current DOWNity that seems to have happened within the past 30 minutes has so far gotten down to $39,143.. so yeah.. what was it the other day?  It looks like it had dipped down to as low as $37,170 about 33 hours ago as I type this post. 

I am not sure if it is crying time yet or not.. but I am not seeing why you Biodom, should be unhappy.. we are more or less right where you said we would be, no?  not that you predicted the Russians going into Ukraine, the overkill of the western financial reaction and propaganda and the Canadian debacle.. but given all that, bitcoin is holding up pretty o.k., no?

Well, don't say it then.

I was merely going by what you said, and how you chose to say it.


No it is not going to be clear, if you do not say it.  Maybe some people can read between the lines or read your mind, but not this cat.


Oh gawd.. sounds like a slippery slope to me.

Fuck CBDCs and the pumping of them... especially in this thread. 

I am against the pumping of CBDCs in this thread.. just like Arriemoller is against Chart Buddy... but I think that my position is more reasonable than Arriemoller's.... Just say no to CBDCs and their pumpenings, especially in this thread.


If you are talking about bitcoin or ways to improve bitcoin, then great.  Yes... bitcoin is going to retain some self-banking aspects and some third custody aspects, and the self-custody can be a lot of responsibility, just like if you lose the $100 that is in your wallet.. you cannot necessarily get it back.


Sure they are, but should we be making their arguments for them?  NO problem, if there might be some desires to talk about the issues including that a lot of folks believe that in early to mid 2021 (and seeming to continue) China had started a more intensive crackdown on various aspects related to bitcoin because they were considering bitcoin to be competition to their CBDC.. whether that is the full reason or only part of the reason, it does seem to fit within the story regarding why China has taken some of its recent hard public stances in regards to bitcoin.


Great.. .I am glad that you are planning to know your enemy.. Hopefully, you do not lose sight of what is bitcoin in the process.


Why are you showing us the shitcoin ethereum versus BTC charts?  Is there some kind of relevance to anything that is meaningful and important in this world?

I don't feel good.

 


Call me a dummy, if you must... that clarification does not help me to say anything more than what I have already said... 

Pros and cons to both..

fuck that nonsense...

snap out of it cAPSLOCK...

There are no pros to CDBCs except from a panopticon perspective.. and yeah, maybe CBDCs would work good in an institution or in a jail..

and I refuse to consider citizens (or member of the populous) as either inmates or institutionalized....

Otherwise, you brought up good points in your post.. except that "pros and cons to both" bullshit.   


Get a damned grip.