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5681  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: What to do with 7 mBTC on: January 08, 2015, 01:32:43 PM
If I read the above posts right, you invested in PRC for 1-2 days and already got 40% return, am I right?
Did something special happen there these 2 days? Shocked

This happened:

Whoever said dice games are boring, wasn't talking about PRC.

Just logged in and what do I see?



"Loseall123" surely lived up to his name.

Feel sorry for the guy...

Hope he wins that console.

It could go either way. OP was lucky.
5682  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Do you think Bitcoin should modify to POW + POS ? █████ Poll █████ on: January 08, 2015, 10:30:28 AM

Edit: This is my last post on the topic. I think that our views are not compatible, and that no one will change his point of view. It does not make sense to go on.

Thanks for replying. Lets leave it like that, further discussion would be just posting the same all over again.

But for the record - I don't have a problem in changing my point of view if presented with reasonable arguments. That's my superpower. I've done it many times before.

In fact, when I first posted in this thread I was slightly in favour of migrating bitcoin to PoS, but now I think I'll rather stick to PoW.

Still keeping an open mind about other solutions tho.
5683  Economy / Gambling / Re: Bitoin Dice Guide House Bank Investment Comparison Table For The Top 8 Operators on: January 07, 2015, 10:08:09 PM

Win88 had a big fortnight with the investment going from 1.25 to 1.35, if that continues they will soon overtake Pocket Rockets Casinofor top spot.


I wouldn't be so sure about that. Someone has just lost BTC152 on PRC. You just can't predict things like that... But they do seem to be getting a lot of action since the launch of 2.0.
5684  Economy / Gambling / Re: PocketRocketsCasino.eu - NEW UPDATE, NEW YEAR PRIZES, largest dice invest site on: January 07, 2015, 09:50:12 PM
Whoever said dice games are boring, wasn't talking about PRC.

Just logged in and what do I see?



"Loseall123" surely lived up to his name.

Feel sorry for the guy...

Hope he wins that console.
5685  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitstamp hack bitcoins are now moving! on: January 07, 2015, 05:21:46 PM
my first concern was they may try and dump them today. on smaller exchanges or trade into alts, then sell.
or they could just secure in multiple wallets and leave for years. then sell when everyone has 'forgot'

maybe a dump is on way today or they may sell on localbitcoins slowly, who knows

They have to sell it slowly. There's no other way. No one will buy such amount with cash and if they start selling large amounts on any fiat/BTC exchange - that would immediately raise suspicion.

Even if they successfully convert to fiat, there's still a risk of a taxman asking where did you get the ~$5m from, or bank freezing your account etc.

I reckon all the process will take months if not years.

Or he could just live off the Bitcoin? I mean think about it, he can buy gold, silver, lambos, booze, clothes and pretty much whatever he wants. He just needs to not let the tax man see him living too lavishly.

Sure, you could live low-key but that's not what you want when you have $5 mils. It's impossible to be unnoticed when you buy expensive car or house paying up-front.

I remember a story about some 18yo UK drug dealer who got busted shortly after buying an expensive Range-Rover.
5686  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Do you think Bitcoin should modify to POW + POS ? █████ Poll █████ on: January 07, 2015, 05:11:30 PM
Look, Ghash.io had >51%, and you are telling me that mining is better because miners would switch pools?... Then how did it get this large?

It just looks like there are no actions you can take to change the centralized mining situation either, because miners will go where fees are the lowest / pool is stable etc.
that's why we observe >%20 hash power in a single pool. You say that in theory, miners could switch pools. Yes, a dangerously large stakeholder also could split/sell part of his stake, but it seems like they both wouldn't.

Look, Ghash doesn't have 51% anymore. Look, Slush or Eligius, who were major pools are not such anymore. Look, now you're complaining about Discus Fish who were irrelevant not too long ago.

According to your theory (highlighted), such changes are not possible. So how did that happen?

Quote
Huh When a pool is too large, it can do all kinds of nasty stuff. Validating blocks = power!

But you/miners or even pool itself could take actions before it gets too big.


Quote
Quote
Yeah, I didn't realise that. You're saying that by staking 1 PoS coin I'll get the same (small) reward as someone with 1,000,000? If so - that's brilliant. If not - that's completely irrelevant to ab8989's post (to which kokoije replied).

I just said otherwise a few posts ago:
Quote
Same chances for everyone per bought coin.
So your/kokoije's posts were pointless and didn't address ab8989's concerns?

----------------------

OK. To summarise, I'm not here to say PoW is better. I'm really happy that PoS coins exist. I joined this thread hoping for some constructive discussion. Ffs I even voted YES in the poll.

I'm not very familiar with PoS, so asked few questions. But it seems impossible to get any straight-forward answers here, other than hysterical reaction and arguments like "PoS is great because mining sucks".

I'll try again. This time let's do an exercise and pretend that PoW and mining doesn't exist and have never existed. Lets focus entirely on PoS and its design (no PoW or mining arguments). 3 simple questions:

1) Since anyone can own infinite number of wallets/addresses, how would you even know whether the coin is currently centralised or not? Is there anything more than just hopes and belief?

2) If at any point in the future (when the coin is established) it is revealed and proven that one person/entity/government owns say 40% and plays on maximising his stash. What can be done to prevent him from increasing his stake to 50% by simply stashing. Can anything be done or is it 'Game Over'?

3) Assuming PoS coin not fully issued from the start. There is a clear and strong incentive to hoard ('stake'). Who would spend such coin (sacrificing possible gains) and why? What would keep it alive? Is there anything more than hopes that majority of holders will see the 'greater good' and kept regularly spending some portion of their holdings? Even if that happens, aren't those who break out and don't spend rewarded even more?
5687  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitstamp hack bitcoins are now moving! on: January 07, 2015, 03:38:30 PM
my first concern was they may try and dump them today. on smaller exchanges or trade into alts, then sell.
or they could just secure in multiple wallets and leave for years. then sell when everyone has 'forgot'

maybe a dump is on way today or they may sell on localbitcoins slowly, who knows

They have to sell it slowly. There's no other way. No one will buy such amount with cash and if they start selling large amounts on any fiat/BTC exchange - that would immediately raise suspicion.

Even if they successfully convert to fiat, there's still a risk of a taxman asking where did you get the ~$5m from, or bank freezing your account etc.

I reckon all the process will take months if not years.
5688  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Do you think Bitcoin should modify to POW + POS ? █████ Poll █████ on: January 07, 2015, 03:21:50 PM
Sure. But what does matter is if any of them gains too much power, there are actions you can take to change the current state.

What doesn't matter are the stats you've quoted. They don't show "persons or accounts" they show "accounts" only.

How many people control what stake? You don't know and you'll never know, until the biggest holders reveal themselves and prove their holdings.

Who in the right mind, holding 40%, 50% or 60% of coins, would keep them all in one wallet? Would you?

And that's another problem with PoS.

Where's the difference between PoS and PoW here? Hashpower controlled by one party split between multiple pools is just as much possible in PoW.

Highlighted the difference for you (in the post you quoted).
So you agree the PoS doesn't have any advantage in this matter?

Don't forget pools are just pools, they don't necessarily own any power. When things get ugly miners can choose to switch to other pool (P2Pool) or even create a separate one.

If the problem exist in PoS, all you can do is switch to other coin.

You can just set the PoS reward to barely cover the expense of running a full node, it's not for rich getting richer at all.

That's what most people don't realize. PoS reward is just a measure to prevent blockchain spam. Even large stakeholders in non inflationary PoS systems don't make much money from forging.

Yeah, I didn't realise that. You're saying that by staking 1 PoS coin I'll get the same (small) reward as someone with 1,000,000? If so - that's brilliant. If not - that's completely irrelevant to ab8989's post (to which kokoije replied).
5689  Economy / Gambling / Re: Bitoin Dice Guide House Bank Investment Comparison Table For The Top 8 Operators on: January 07, 2015, 02:26:36 PM
Nice to see separate website just for dice sites.

But you really need to update it, remove Ninja and Dicebitco.in and add the new ones.
You don't have to invest in every single one of them to make a review.

It would be useful to update the current reviews when appropriate. You really should mention multiple investment risk options on the new PRC site (and give them some extra points for that).

Peace of shit Ice Dice is broken again and I am not optimistic for the future. If it was just my money I would pull it out asap but for the purpose of the table I guess I will ride it out. Or perhaps I should not because if it fails the table will be way in the negative again and these are meant to be real life stats and in real life I could see the failure coming and did not want to keep the funds in there...


I don't know what's the issue with IceDice, but if you don't feel comfortable keeping any funds there - just divest! And invest in any of the new sites instead (if you trust them enough).

Just put an asterisk (*) next to the name and appropriate footnotes, i.e.:

* divested on [date] because of..
** invested X BTC on [date].

something like that.

And if you decide to invest in new sites, you don't need to put whole 1 BTC on each. 0.1 or 0.01 would give the same % return value.

I don't think updating the table (divesting/new investments) will mess up the results. You'll have to do it anyway, sooner or later, if you want to provide meaningful, up-to-date insight.

One of the new sites worth checking is https://safedice.com/, their official thread:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=868275.0

Friendly operators, responsive and quick with fixing bugs and implementing new features. House edge is only 0.5% (variable) so that's their advantage over others. They could focus a bit more on promoting tho.

They're accepting investments upon request (with no minimum).
5690  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Do you think Bitcoin should modify to POW + POS ? █████ Poll █████ on: January 07, 2015, 01:50:42 PM

It does not matter if Disqus Fish or Ghash.io has >20% of the hashpower.
...

Sure. But what does matter is if any of them gains too much power, there are actions you can take to change the current state.

What doesn't matter are the stats you've quoted. They don't show "persons or accounts" they show "accounts" only.

How many people control what stake? You don't know and you'll never know, until the biggest holders reveal themselves and prove their holdings.

Who in the right mind, holding 40%, 50% or 60% of coins, would keep them all in one wallet? Would you?

And that's another problem with PoS.

Also, remember that we're discussing bitcoin as PoS, so comparing to NXT can be pointless (all the NXT coins have already been issued etc). And we need to look also at theoretical long-term threats.
5691  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Do you think Bitcoin should modify to POW + POS ? █████ Poll █████ on: January 07, 2015, 12:15:19 PM
The PoS message sounds way too much like telling people they should buy into a coin that is secured by Rockefellers and Rotschilds.

in PoW = The Bitmains and spondoolies
edit: I meant the Ghash.ios and Disqus Fishes Wink

What's the difference?
Ah yes, largest mining pools control even a bigger share than largest stakeholders.

The difference is that dominating pools/miners change all the time. Right now it's Discuss Fish, not too long ago it was GHash, before that BTC Guid, Eligius, Slush etc.

They had significant % share in hashrate but lost it to others.

If you have PoS holder controlling significant % of all coins - there's nothing you or anyone can do about it. Unless he willingly give up some of his stake, he will remain with his % and will be slowly increasing his market share.
5692  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: ▁ ▂ ▄ ▅ ▆ Cloudmining 101 (ponzi risk assessment) ▆ ▅ ▄ ▂ ▁ on: January 07, 2015, 11:50:19 AM
Any thoughts?  I'll have about $1K US dollars pretty soon and am looking to put it towards btc in a meaning ful way.  I love the game and want to actively be working with btc. 

Lets say you purchased another limited supply commodity such as gold instead of btc. What would you do to "actively be working with your gold" ?
You cant, or at least not in a way that is not extremely likely to generate losses.

BTC is the investment, they are cheap now, just put them in a cold wallet.

You can't do much with physical gold, but there's plenty of ways to invest BTC and there's nothing wrong with that.

So what happens to bitcoin if everyone treats it like an investment on its own, everyone just holds and no one uses it? Price will skyrocket right?
5693  Economy / Economics / Re: Price drop : bitcoinners happy ? on: January 07, 2015, 11:42:53 AM
Is now the time to buy in big or the current value could go even lower?
If you plan to hold long-term doesn't matter if you buy at 280-290 , in worst case price could dip to 260 (less probable)

It has already dived under $260 few days ago. Why do you think it's not probable?

Hard to say what will happen when BitStamp re-opens. They'll likely have to buy back the stolen 19,000 (if they didn't already). This can drive the price up or down.

But yes, if you're bullish on bitcoin and are here for the long-run, then the current price movement doesn't matter too much.
5694  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Bitstamp's first annual statements on: January 06, 2015, 09:41:32 PM

What were their costs in 2013?

No one knows (apart from them). What you see in the first post of this thread is all the financial info publicly available at the moment. As a small company they were entitled to present abbreviated accounts, so pretty much only the balance sheet.

One thing to note is that most of the VC investments that were announced through 2014 were actually negotiated in late 2013 or early 2014.  (For example, OKCoin said that their 10 M$ investment, announced in Mar/2014, had been closed in Dec/2013). At that time, expectations for the growth of the bitcoin economy and price were still in outer space   (By May 2014, most bitcoin gurus and angels were still predicting 3'000 USD/BTC or much more by the end of the year.)  That may explain why the investments were so big compared to the current profits.


That's probably a good point.
5695  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Bitstamp's first annual statements on: January 06, 2015, 04:46:25 PM

their office is supposed to be in England not in Slovenia.
The office rent is around of 3000-4000 euro/month because they are in 5 New Street Square, London.
They wanted to be "trendy". Smiley

I do not believe they have more than 2-3 employees for customer support and order processing(bank wires). They have 1 programmer + 7-8 "executives". I counted 7.

The executive salaries must be BIG(over 10K per month).
in summary, Bitstamp expenses should be around of 1 mil EURO per year due to their "executives" Smiley


It's the registered office (London), it doesn't have to be their operational office, and probably isn't.

Were did you get those 7 executives from? I only see 5 directors + 1 secretary (they don't have to be exec, and exec doesn't have to be official director).

Exec's salary is just a guessing game. It could be zero, or minimal wage (if the exec is also a shareholder, in such case he'll get most through dividends), it could be performance-related salary etc. They'd have to be really stupid to sign up an exec for ridiculous fixed salary without tying it to performance.
5696  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Coinfire Bitstamp update on: January 06, 2015, 04:21:32 PM
They could repay by increasing the trading fees, for example to the range 0.3-0.6 and put the excess in separate fund and just start to repay.


Not a good idea. Would work if they had monopoly or were at least the major player, but they're not anymore. It's a very competitive market atm.

Right now they need to fix the problem and re-build trust, which is not easy. If they were to increase tx fees, they'll be effectively punishing customers for their own mistake, that's not wise move.
5697  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: What to do with 7 mBTC on: January 06, 2015, 03:35:58 PM
invest to someone trusted in gambling site Tongue

i wouldn't trust MYSELF in a gambling site,
why would I trust anyone else to gamble for ME?

guess I mean invest in the house, not give the coins to someone else gamble

Where would I be able to do that..?

This thread gives quite good insight:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=826466.0

Note: Win88 have min 1 BTC investment.

I'm invested in pocketrocketscasino.eu (formerly PRCDice) - they have the biggest crowd-funded bankroll and give multiple risk option for investments (read FAQ before investing) and safedice.com - small, new site with only 0.5% variable house edge, since their bankroll is quite low, you can get bigger %share in profits with a small investment.
5698  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Bitstamp's first annual statements on: January 06, 2015, 02:46:21 PM

Actually it is not that much. Considering office space, furniture, equipment, marketing, energy, internet access and other bills, etc, I would guess that it may support a 20-person company for 6 months, maybe a year.  Probably they have already spent half or more of that amount. (Investors do not give money to a company for it to keep unused in its bank account.)

If they're operating in Slovenia, the total annual operating costs (for 20 staff) should easily close within $1 million (excluding execs' salaries, as this could be anything). And it's probably much less. It's a straight-forward business, don't think they need 20 employees, and office space rental (with internet + electricity + basic equipment) is not that expensive.

There's no way they could make a profit (and they did in 2013) with $5-10m expenses. They've never had enough volume for that.

Quote
I believe that is called "sending good money to chase after the bad" in finance. 

Pantera would have to choose between writing off 10 M$, or investing 20 M$ that will take 10 years to be paid back, before it can start yielding 1 M$/year profit (maybe).  Will Bitstamp survive 10 years?

Why $20m? 10 (already invested) + 5 (stolen) = $15m.

The question is why they've invested $10m in the first place. It doesn't look like BitStamp ever needed that kind of money shot.
Possibly Pantera threw some money in and obliged themselves to provide further support/guarantee, all totalling $10m. Just my guess.

Anyhow, I can't imagine Pantera writing off $10m and giving up on profit-making business.

Quote
The loans would be repaid from the revenue, and that extra expense would decrease their profit by the same amount.  So yes: effectively, the loan would be paid from the profits.   In that scenario the other investors may not receive any profits for the next 5 years.

That's what I meant:


I was referring to 'net profit' (assumed $1m, after tax). If I'm not mistaken, they can charge the amount of stolen bitcoins as an expense and do the same with interest on the (hypothetical) $5m loan, effectively reducing taxable profit (to a loss) and don't pay any tax (for a few years) which could speed up the loan repayment.
5699  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Bitstamp's first annual statements on: January 06, 2015, 01:52:21 PM

it is true what I am saying. BitStamp received 10 MIL from Pantera last year.

http://www.coindesk.com/bitstamp-got-10m-fortress-linked-hedge-fund-last-year-bloomberg/

The loan cannot be paid from people's deposits. Then, it must be paid from profit.

...

Thanks for the link.

I was referring to 'net profit' (assumed $1m, after tax). If I'm not mistaken, they can charge the amount of stolen bitcoins as an expense and do the same with interest on the (hypothetical) $5m loan, effectively reducing taxable profit (to a loss) and don't pay any tax (for a few years) which could speed up the loan repayment.
5700  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Bitstamp's first annual statements on: January 06, 2015, 12:30:52 PM

agree with you BUT these things are happening in a normal industry not with Bitcoin.
According to Bitstamp,  Pantera Venture already gave them 10 MIL USD  (I am not sure why...why would they need a such amount???!!)

we are talking about 10 MIL but it's a LOT of money. 1 MIL is huge...10 MIL USD is ENORMOUS Smiley
This investor must recover these 10 MIL first...
$1m profit per year (after tax, salaries etc) = 10 years, let's say 5 years because Bitspamp will doble its profit. 5 years are too long for a Bitcoin biz.

Of course, 1 MIL per year profit is a very good business but when you are dealing with something with a huge volatility like Bitcoin....you can never know. Nobody will make an infusion of 5 MIL now, knowing that Bitstamp will need at least 6-10 months to reestablish their credibility(IF they will be able to do it).


Wasn't aware of that $10m from Pantera. That's indeed a lot. And if that's true, they're likely to have a lot of that left (depends on the terms of the funding), so they don't need any extra funds to cover the hacked wallet.

Also, if Pantera invested such capital, you can be sure they won't let BitStamp die.


This investor must recover these 10 MIL first...
$1m profit per year (after tax, salaries etc) = 10 years, let's say 5 years because Bitspamp will doble its profit. 5 years are too long for a Bitcoin biz.


If BitStamp goes under, the $10m will be lost forever, so it makes perfect sense for Pantera to further capitalise the business (if that's needed) and have realistic chance for ROI, even if it takes a long time.

Edit. The loans are not repaid from net profit, so it can take less than 5 years to get those $5m back.
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