Thank you  Next question is - what will happen next? A) Bounce from the trendline towards new highs B) Something else (what?) |
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Excellent reply. If someone disagrees, he does not understand the issue.
Is the anything that can be done, except that the value of the liberty-loving people descends to a maze of altcoins, which are constantly changing and whose conversions are trustless with p&p exchanges?
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bitcoins have been traded with a 20% premium mid january bcs the goxUSD was considered worth 20% less than real USD. now goxBTC are traded for 52% (630 bitstamp, 330 Gox). since the USD and SEPA withdrawals only got worse since than, goxBTC is worth less than 0.8*0.52 = 0.41 right now.
40% or even less :O wtf are ppl thinking?!
Ironically enough, currently a flash USD deposit into Gox would be an instant road to riches, as also others have explained: For $1000 you get gox BTC3.0, which you can sell for BTC2.1, valued at $1300 or more. |
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I think it is going as planned. We will need to spend some time in these levels so that nobody believes that it will go to 800 again in the immediate future. Unless people believe that it is good to sell the coins for 400, they will not do it  Also the buyers need to be tamed to not buy the flashcrashes. Time is an answer to these issues. Be wary for Bitstamp price. It is much higher than the other functioning exchanges now. If Gox finds all the bitcoins and withdrawals are resumed, they will be sold in other exchanges (bitstamp being the only one with fiat withdraw option) with massive damage to bitcoin price. ADD: If anyone thought that Bitstamp is somehow Slovenian, the following excerpt from open orders shatters the belief: Sell Feb. 14, 2014, noon 30.00000000 $648.20 $19,446.00 Open
It is impossible to think that anyone else but the British would have specifically coded their software to show "noon" for 12:00 GMT. Probably there's also "midnight", try it out  |
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What is The Trendline. Basically it is a price that grows every month 23.5%, which means a double in every 99 days. If we are above the trendline price of that date, bitcoin is overvalued. Below it is undervalued. It is calculated from the average rate of growth over the past 5.1 years. Currently we are right on the trendline, or a little bit below it. Bitcoin is not expensive any more, but past experience suggests that we go significantly below the trendline in the near future. This can happen in the following ways: - Price drops. - We stabilize around this level for such a long time (~3 months) that the trendline rises enough. Of course trendline has no magical ability to forecast the price (and it also changes albeit little all the time). In the past it has been a reliable +EV tool to time entry and exit points in the very slow swing trade (a few trades per year). |
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Okay, and why do you use MtGox still.
Decent APIs, only well functioning multi-currency exchange, very good arbitrage vs other exchanges and a deep order book. To sum it up: Profit. , resulting from Mt.Gox discriminatory customer service practices. There is no legitimate arbitrage opportunity arising from market forces (regional money flows imbalance ie. remittances disparity) or even 3rd party actions (taxation, regulation). The only thing we are arbitraging is the severity of disparity of proprietary information among its users. |
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I see you are putting your money where your mouth is with regards to MtGox's solvency. Sirs, Unfortunately I cannot see how the playing field would be level: 1. Mt.Gox has misrepresented the truth in so many occasions in the past that the ones with funds there do not understandably trust them. 2. Mr. Ver would not realistically make such a wager without having much better information on the actual situation than the ones who have been fooled by Gox so many times that they do not believe the recent statements. In financial markets in general, using such insider information would be disallowed in a case like this. 3. In factual terms, Gox has prioritized BTC withdrawals to those "in the know" during the past 3 weeks. Sturle has confirmed that he has had essentially no problems getting BTC out. The others, including me, have needed to take a hit, which in my case amounted to $150k. It is not far-fetched to think that in the future also, Mr. Ver would have preferential treatment (better actual % of BTC salvaged), which would give him advantage in the markets in buying btcxx at a discount. 4. Not to expound the case any further, or offer cheap advice. Available upon request and standard rates. |
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Fiat is suitable for criminals. Why isn't it on the news already?? |
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The USA and the NSA will thus be in the driver's seat of the default of $150 trillion in debt. They will not give up this power (thus they will not hyperinflate away their power). They plan to charge to all of us. This is massive deflation. No major nation in the world has ever hyperinflated away their power. They always self-destruct by attacking their own citizens. Study Rome. Study Germany, etc.... You don't sniff this yet, but Armstrong and I do. Later when you do finally capitulate and realize, that is when the others have also figured it out and it will be mad rush into the dollar and away from all other economies. Then we move into the peak for the USA Sept. 2015, then the USA goes over the cliff and total chaos will ensue. It will be much worse than 2008 and the central banks will be powerless this time. In fact, the Fed has been warning the banks they will not be bailed out again. This is why all the G7 have official bail-in plans (seen on their government websites) to take the money from the depositors instead. You also don't understand that $150 trillion global debt means every one has been doing the wrong activities and everything is uneconomic. You don't understand that debt is not just a ledger item, it also reflects real waste of human years, wrong skills acquired, wrong decisions made, etc.. These real problems are not corrected just by changing a line on the financial ledger. This frustration is why riots and global unrest (and the war cycle) is increasing all over the world right now. There is no way to avoid the global deflation contagion. This is Gold. Total hell is about to hits us in 2 years or less.
Just in time with the Bitcoin exponential increase hitting 1-10% of the general population. Cause or effect? |
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Hi rpietila. When you made you estimate of the bottom, did you factor in potential bad news such as exchanges all screwing up, protocol exploits, and government bans, or will it go lower now? Does it make a difference?
In December, when I made the estimate for $400 bottom in January-March time, I based it solely on trendline analysis. The trendline in turn, takes into account everything that happens in the infrastructure or anywhere else. I do not think that it will go lower, ie. $300s on a permanent basis, but may very well dip there, or even $100, temporarily, just like BTCe already did. Midterm I would be more than content if 500 was accepted as a fair price and volatility would calm down. |
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Risto did we have final capitulation from last april bubble (by your rules)?
There were so much talk in the summer about $50 capitulation coins in jan-feb.2014.
This is a great point. In the period June - October 2013 there were multiple threads and theories which explained very persuasively that BTC could not and would not post a new ATH until we reached the mythic 'capitulation' price, which IIRC was suggested to be USD60. The rest as they say is history. So, where does that leave us and where does it leave the validity of TA when applied to a market such as crypto. Then there is the February 14, which alone is a reason to sell your coins NOW.  Which falls on a Friday this year, too. I think at least an exaggerated weekend dip is possible.
No, he is saying that people like you are making this forum a shithole.
If you want to change people's behaviour, the best place to start is with your own. Yeah, I was a bit harsh. You just posted a dead cupid. Interestingly enough, I made a comment about how Valentine's Day was bearish for men and reptelia delete my post. Lol. WTF?
Bolded for emphasis, to make it stand out from clutter, not that I needed to shout or anything Only the fact that I am busy, restricts me from deleting much more now. |
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You have seemingly ignored me also, because you have not addressed my legitimate concerns about the selective information and selective withdraw privileges of gox...  I don't have any selective withdraw privileges. Mine are the same as those of any other verified user. Using what I have learned by experience and by filtering useful information from public fora over many years to have a greater chance to succeed when I try to withdraw is not the same as selective withdraw privileges. Not all my attempts were successful, btw. I made a number of 10 BTC withdrawals. Some were successful, some not. I did it at a time when I had reason to expect a higher success rate, based on public information and my own experience. In this case people came to #mtgox and complained about an error message which usually means the bitcoin address entered in the withdrawal form is invalid or indicates an empty hot wallet at MtGox. This was at the middle of the night Tokyo time, and I knew they would fill up first thing in the morning. After a couple hours the reports stopped coming, and this would be the sweet spot. Hot wallet refreshed with old unspent inputs which most likely would be chosen first. They don't keep dust in their cold wallets, so I could choose a reasonable withdrawal size as well. No special privileges or access to restricted information needed. Everything is out in the open for everyone to learn. I am certainly not the only one unaffiliated with MtGox who used this trick. The fresh inputs went very quickly. My only fault here is telling you about it. At least MtGox credited my failed withdrawals back to my account. The 8 BTC withdrawal I made from Bitstamp this morning is still listed as "Finished", but nothing arrived, nothing credited back and support are quiet. AFAIK Bitstamp has no IRC support either. Thank you for information. I have a hard time believing that a Norwegian could be a liar. So I wait until Mt.Gox destiny is sealed, at which point it is evident if they have all the bitcoins or not. Even if they do have them, they are still criminals in my book based on their past actions, some of which I have divulged in this thread. If they don't, you will have to admit that you were wrong all the time, leading others to destruction. At that point there will certainly be investigation on your role also. All I want is to root out the evil from Bitcoin. I am not accepting any compensation from anyone for my losses caused by Gox crimes, unless the widows and orphans share the same pool prorated. I also hope that you cease to call them "useful idiots" solely on the grounds that their trust on the Foundation-Endorsed Market Leader has been obscenely exploited. |
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You have some really good points. I do not know where you are seeing the "everybody is still hopeful." I mean, I am hopeful mainly because of the eco-system and the fairly positive response of US regulators. Besides that, even I, who am a "perma-bull" am not very hopeful of the current price. I feel fear. Others, if you have been watching closely, have either gone silent (Mbtac) or have said they are quitting. Plus there is a massive influx of trolls, with threads saying Bitcoin is going to die. DDosers smelled blood and went on the attack. Someone sold off 8000 BTC on btc-e. Crazy shit is going on everywhere.
If you are reasonably confident of Bitcoin's long-term success, then you are "hopeful" and have no reason to sell. Then the price stays high, and this is what we are experiencing. If large holders lose confidence, then they sell, and crash follows. Based on my research, the # of coins in small holders' hands may be so small now that it cannot shake the markets. And if someone was here during the April bubble, he is not prone to panicking. In 2011 there was no precedent so even large holders panicked and price spiraled down. Then there is the February 14, which alone is a reason to sell your coins NOW. |
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Mixed signals. Trendline suggests we are still high. Also the bottoms so far this week have been flashcrashes with quick rebounds. (This has not been a property of the prior final capitulations, rather of the beginning of them.) Not enough negative sentiment, everybody is still hopeful. Even goxbtc trades at higher than is realistic imo. There are also negative events that could still happen.
Feeling of fear is a good sign, but not yet the sign to buy if the price is not there.
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Unfortunately the price of Bitcoin on Gox is influenced by a lot of other factors like some people thinking $ will be easier to get out in a bankruptcy, people trading the money they can't do anything else with etc.
When you could move BTC and the price on Gox was 15% higher than Coinbase I am sure you would not make the conclusion that BTC on Mt. Gox was 15% safer than on Coinbase because you would get more coins on Coinbase for the same amount...
I would use the following method to price these deals: - MtGox was 15% higher when BTC worked and fiat worked as well as it supposedly does now (there is no evidence that any fiat has been sent out since long time but let's believe there is). Since coins had the same value as in Bitstamp, we must conclude that GoxBux were appraised at 1/1.15 = 0.87. - Now neither works. So we take the discount of GoxBTC relative to BitstampBTC (currently 570/642 = 0.89) and multiply it with the purchasing power of GoxBTC: 0.89*0.87 = 0.77. We can conclude that GoxBTC should have 77% of the value of BitstampBTC. Prior to DDOS, BitstampBTC was = blockchain BTC. If you believe that the DDOS causes BitstampBTC to be in a discount, apply this discount to the equation, which results in a slightly lower value. |
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Certain activities occurring inside the Bitcoin ecosystem may eventually filter up to the mainstream court systems, but I'll bet it will be unusual, and the kinds of activities which Strudle/Mt. Gox are theorized to be involved in will not be among them. My best guess. At least if they can avoid antagonizing various mainstream law enforcement agencies, and I'm sure that a little data-sharing will smooth any ruffled feathers that might occur in this sphere.
I am disgruntled that "justice" system is integrated with criminals in the way you described. U.S. system might function well but it has so little to do with plain old justice that a rename might be in order. |
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put strudle on ignore, when is gox next announcement on withdrawl issue?
He's the most valuable poster here imho. The last of his breed. I don't use ignore lists, but if I did, I certainly would not put him on it! He's just disgruntled because I never answer him, because.. hrm.. I have him on ignore. You have seemingly ignored me also, because you have not addressed my legitimate concerns about the selective information and selective withdraw privileges of gox... I don't usually call someone a criminal, but when I do, I make sure they don't have a defence. |
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Risto, you still think btc will be at $300k in the future??
And also are you bullish or bearish now?
Hm.. I am starting to feel the fear in me. But it is OK, I have coins in an exchange and I sell them. Then I have fiat and feel good (It is better to sell while the price is high) Everybody do according to their own emotions. |
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Could it now start to be looking like final capitulation or something? At least there is quite big volume for this past week and if you zoom enough out on the chart it looks like it just might have been long enough to go up. I tend to think that the cycles of rallies are getting faster and more close to each other and on 3day and 1week charts it looks something like last april and beyond that on faster speed?
No. The price is too high relative to the trend (about 0). Currently 400 daily average would suffice. Also no panic, no desperation. ADD: And we seem to have some real Bitcoinwide issues at hand. I am surprised why price is so high tbh! I can't withdraw or spend my bitcoin, but I can still sell them at Bitstamp and get fiat out of it. |
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No, I can not. So far others have done that part
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