Well, it's Manuel Baum as the Sportschau reports and who we know from his stint at Augsburg. He wasn't super successful there - only had one full season in the end, where Augsburg finished in 12th place - so not sure if he is the right coach for this messy team. I would have liked a more experienced coach for a change, whom the players fear a bit

But I can live with Schalke being mediocre for the time being, since I can't stand that club. Dimitrios Grammozis was also in the mix and with him they surely would have relegated; with Baum they stand a chance and maybe he can build something from scratch there.....

The main "problem" will be liquidity. On a technical level everything worked fine during soft launch and I don't see any big issues arising there. But liquidity is ultra important, because only with liquidity you will attract more people, which then turns into exponential growth. Pre-match liquidity isn't even that important, but exchanges live and die with inplay liquidity - trading sports events is the bread and butter for them.
You saw and still see other fiat exchanges struggling with this and with a crypto-only betting exchange this is even more of a challenge. And all this with the biggest exchange not being accessible for loads of people, where you would think that other exchanges get/got a good market share, but this is not really the case.

You can compare it with Poker, where we have SwC Poker present in this forum, who have a super cool software, which is working fine; no KYC. They even sponsor a private Poker Series in here, but they struggle with getting players as well, because everyone is playing at PokerStars where there are loads of tables, tournaments, Sit'n Go's 24/7. So there is no reason to leave (you have already been KYC'ed).

Sorry for hijacking this thread with SwC things @exbet.io, but I think your situation/challenge is comparable.


Market-makers, low commission (1% is super cool), good support, community building, maybe some promos, social media, marketing. And then pray and have patience

I would do it in a heartbeat And I guess I wouldn't do that much worse than Wagner. I think there are only very few people in the whole world who would not want to earn around 2.5mln per year with a relatively easy job compared to others. There is a huge pressure from bosses, fans, media etc., but all this money is a good compensation for that. Imagine you do this just for one year - you are basically set for life then. And Wagner still gets paid his full wage until his contract expires in 2022, easy money

The stat nerd in me was bored and I did some "analysis" on user performance in the MM, from the point when we started keeping track in here a bit more:



JanpriX and Trofo lead the pack with 3 wins each and Trofo also has best average, if we disregard Avirunes because of too small sample size.

I will probably add weeks 34-37, where I didn't/couldn't play, at a later point.

I also pimped the weekly table a bit, so watch out and post your picks.

It's really hard to find some arguments for betting on the Chiefs after the last impressions we got against the Chargers. But I wouldn't read too much into that hard-fought win, because of that sudden change to Herbert for which the Chiefs weren't prepared maybe and who was having a very good debut with a pumped up Chargers team in their new stadium. They should have won that one more convincingly, but it's not always easy in NFL. Today will be a new and different game and Chiefs were very solid in first game against Texans, whom the Ravens also beat easily.

I think these odds are fair. Since everyone seems to be on the Ravens, I am tempted to go on the Chiefs, but odds on Ravens are going down, which is not a good sign for Chiefs fans/punters Whatever the outcome, I think it will be a great game to watch.

---

On another note: I really liked what I saw from Burrow yesterday, had some superb throws and Bengals should have gotten the W. But as so many teams they were a victim of their "prevent defense", which prevents nothing in the end.....well it prevents you getting the ball back with enough time on the clock to answer with a FG. And most of the times, you won't even have to answer, because you will just stop them with the defense you played all game long. Prevent defense is meh and if I were a NFL coach, this thing wouldn't exist with my team

I can only think of a scenario, where Bayern kind of beats themselves, i.e. they struggle with motivation after having won the triple in last season. Problem is even with a struggling team from Munich, the other teams are often too dumb to take advantage of it, laying an egg here and there and not being able to beat Bayern in the direct matches.

Only Dortmund can match them a little in terms of quaility and depth, but they are often shaky even against inferior opposition as you could see in Augsburg. They put themselves in difficult situations frequently - even at home - where they are in danger to lose valuable points. And this is because they aren't as mature team as Bayern, lack some mentality at times and there are missing some vocal leaders imo. Lots of good and technical skilled players, but too many in the end (yes that can be ). Hummels/Witsel could be such leaders and guide the younger players, but it's a bit against their personality.

Leipzig doesn't have the quality like Bayern and Dortmund have (Poulsen, Forsberg, Kampl etc. are not that good), but they are very well organized and rarely have a bad day. And probably the best coach among these 3.

All other teams have no chances. Not even Schalke with their new coach

Unfortunately I didn't catch any odds after the red cards, but it wasn't too interesting in terms of red cards this weekend anyway.

England

Everyone behaved well, no red cards.

Spain

No red cards.

Italy

Roma - Juve
Red Card: Juve in 62nd minute, score 2-1
Final Score: 2-2

This would have been a very profitable spot to go on the red-carded team. Too bad I didn't follow the odds, but I would think Roma was between 1.30-1.40 after the red card.

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Bologna - Parma
Red Card: Parma in 76th minute, score 3-1
Final Score: 4-1

No impact on the outcome, Bologna with the 4-1 in the last minutes.

Germany

Mainz - Stuttgart
Red Card: Mainz in 77th minute, score 1-2
Final Score: 1-4

Stuttgart was able to extend their lead shortly after the red card and made another one some minutes later. Bad spot here, but Mainz was playing against their coach (and they succeeded, because he was sacked in the meantime ) Stuttgart had a red card in injury time as well, just for the record.

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Schalke - Bremen
Red Card: Schalke in 84th minute, score 0-3
Final Score: 1-3

Red card came late, when the game was already decided, but Schalke actually managed to score a goal one man down in injury time.

---

---

Recapitulating things so far, it looks like there probably is some value on "next goal" for red-carded team or lay "next goal" for opponent (to cover no goals in remaining time). This would have worked twice this weekend with I guess very good odds and also 2/3 last weekend. But we need more data

Fun Fact: All games with a red card ended over 3.5 goals.

JanpriX and Avirunes have won the internal Bitcointalk MM and share the prize of 100 fame points:



I have reached my personal highlight in being the only one to get Roma draw right - something JanpriX and buwaytress managed to do with Frankfurt/Leicester as well. Other than that not much to brag about, since I don't think 9 correct ones is enough for some prize. We went 2/3 with the picks we found consensus on (and Bayern losing getting humiliated by Hoffenheim was really a surprise ).

Well, this was a short one But I am happy about that Bayern loss and it's better to lose it right away, than in the middle or end of things. But I will probably give it another try, to keep my jinx-magic working^^ When was the last time both Dortmund and Bayern lost in the same round ?

I think Flick has to go


He is in starting line-up, lets see what he can do

It's rare that I don't find anything to bet on in NFL....today is one of those days Earlier this week I wrote that I like Atlanta, because Bears are poor imo. Falcons will miss quite some starters on defense though and odds have gone up, which is never a good sign, so I'll pass on that one.
Raiders were good against Saints, but Jacobs and Waller are not at 100% and Raiders in an early game at the east coast is also putting me off. I could just bet on the Patriots, but odds are too low for my liking.
I am tempted to go for Bengals ML, since Eagles still struggle mightily with their O-Line and Wentz is not in good form. Bengals kept it close against Chargers/Browns, but Eagles are another caliber. Not very convinced with this one overall.
Giants vs 49ers with all those injuries for SF is unpredictable and the rest looks ok odds-wise. I will probably just watch this week

I will lock this thread for some time, since 95% of the posts are more general chit-chat about the election and not betting related. I know this goes hand in hand to some extent, but I can't remember the last time some odds or other betting stuff was discussed/analyzed.

You can discuss the election in the Politics & Society board in the meantime. There are lots of threads about Trump, Biden and the election, which are not about betting on the outcome.

JanpriX is leading the pack with that good call on Frankfurt



That super late goal from ManU killed me - if it stayed X, I would have had some slim hopes to still be in the mix. I definitely need that X in Roma vs Juve tomorrow, if there is any hope left. But I guess the leader right now has already 7 Maybe someone can check later and post here.

That result from Chelsea and how it unfolded was brutal for rdbase, big_daddy and buwaytress. Hope you made at least some money by betting on WBA and then hedging at 3-0

Do they ? I have yet to meet a person who seriously believes he can beat Blackjack longterm or is already doing so.


No strategy "guarantees 100% profit", also not combining the 500 best ones. A positive result can be achieved, which would then be to minimize your losses. I wouldn't call it positive though, it's still negative, because you lose money. The improvement of losing less could be called a positive result otoh.


.....and the house always in the end

Inside one week of the Tour is still fine in general and you can preserve your peak form for this timeframe. Everything after that you will fade and have to start building up your form again. This is also why the Giro/Tour double is way harder than the Tour/Vuelta double. Between Giro/Tour there is normally 5-6 weeks, between Tour/Vuelta 4 weeks, which means that you are plateuing higher to start the build up for Vuelta again. Getting enough rest after a GT is not necessarily the issue; most riders are fresh again after 1-2 weeks. Riding on peak form is another thing though and most athletes are only able to do it for a limited time and have to start all over afterwards. There are some exceptions though, like Valverde, Sagan etc.

Nevertheless WvA is a freak, yes


It is actually kind of a boring sport, even for a fan like me and regularly betting on it. There are some races which are interesting for good parts (Paris-Roubaix, RVV, GT stages where teams create havoc from the start), but more often than not, it's really boring until the final km's. It's always the same basically: The race starts, an attackers group seperates from the field and then you can watch the peloton chase them for hours.
It's not a sport where you sit in front of the TV nail-biting all the time and in sheer excitement. But when there is some action then, this is a great sport to watch. Not only the sport itself is enjoyable, but also the often beautiful landscape, all the fans, all the drama. The rest of the time you can just let the TV run without paying too much attention and do some other things in the meantime

Still looks a bit messy for me




Hehe, hate is a too strong word. I don't hate any football team (nor person), I just dislike them. This whole "mes que un club", we are the nice guys, we don't need any jersey sponsor but Unicef can have it etc. is a bit fake to me. I don't like teams/athletes that have a general dominance over ages in their sports - just bores me.
Barca is liked by gaziliions of people and I tend to dislike these teams that are liked by so many; strange I know Smaller clubs and underdogs are more interesting to me, I maybe like the struggle and adversity they face on a regular basis. The only dominator in sports I was fan of, was M. Schumacher in F1 back in the days. All other teams/athletes I root for are rather mediocre, with some success here and there, which is very sweet then when it happens^^
And last but not at least: I can't stand Messi. Not football-wise, but personality-wise. And I am not in the CR7 camp

Hi there

General rule is that you have to pay taxes for everything crypto profit that is sold inside one year after purchasing - with a tax exemption limit of 600,- Euro. It doesn't matter, if you exchange into other crypto or fiat. If you hold your crypto for more than a year and sell then, there are no taxes. Since you have your XRP since 2018, I wouldn't worry with anything regarding taxes, if selling while in Germany.

This also makes the rest of your questions obsolete, which couldn't have been answered very easily anyway (at least by me ). Would have depended on a lot of other things (duration of stay, if you work here or just travel around etc.)

Because no username is long enough I guess, adding some spaces does the trick:


Edit: It does not, let me check
Edit2: I made it BTT name, lets see, if this works. If not, you can use this table (maybe change the colours, if you like):

Participants

Bitcointalk Name	Superbru Name	Favorite Club
__________________	__________________	__________________
Trofo	Trofo	Sevilla
tyKiwanuka	tyKiwanuka	None
slaman29	slaman29	?
buwaytress	Sojourner	?
LTU_btc	LTU_btc	Barcelona
casperBGD	casperBGD	?
hahay	hahay	?
tokeweed	tokeweed	Real Madrid
Harkorede	Harkorede	Barcelona
big_daddy	big_daddy	?

I don't have a favourite team, only an anti-favourite team, which would be Barca If you do the same for the ITA thread, put Hellas Verona in for me

Yep corrected, thanks, was just a test, if you are all attentive To my defense: He had a different order than I have for the table and I always struggle then


Always super annoying. And I am sure there is at least one user who had Frankfurt und the rest of his 14 picks exactly the same as me and thus I am already out^^ This huge win from Berlin in Bremen in round 1 was probably a bit misleading.....Bremen is just poor and they are doing really bad at home for ages already. Hertha was shitty in test matches and in the cup game - I thought this Bremen win maybe was the turnaround for them, but nope. Frankfurt has the better team all in all and Hertha has always been a messy club (they can only play Basketball and Icehockey there properly.......and Waterpolo).

Here it is:



JanpriX, I will add your picks, if/when you post them tomorrow or whenever.

Consensus only found with 3 games, which I highlighted. tomahawk9 and buwaytress spoiled the party a bit to make it 7 (ManCity, Hertha, Barca, Real). Suprised to see no one picking Frankfurt for tonight and we even only have one X, the rest home win. I picked home win as well, but not tooooooo sure with that one
The rest of the games have all outcomes picked at least once apart from the Chelsea game, where the draw is missing. I did a quick check, if any 2 users have the exact same picks, but doesn't look like that, which is kind of amazing. As always good luck ladies and gentlemen

Yes, this is of course the most important data. You can get that data from Betfair, but I don't have an account there no more to scrape it (and I would probably be too dumb anyway ). I will try to record the odds for those matches which I follow live, but I can't follow them all. But we can maybe make a team effort out of it, where users post the odds in here, after a red card was given - and probably the odds right before the card as well. So everyone feel free to contribute Pre-match odds are easy go get btw at oddsportal or other odds comparison sites, but we need the inplay ones.

It will always follow the same pattern more or less, so once you/we have a big enough sample size, you can just calculate the odds yourself and will already see, if the market gives away some value.