The situation for us HODLers/accumulators could be worse...

I understand that some folks have dilemmas regarding whether they should be buying MOAR at these levels... or just be HODLing through it.

There are surely some other kinds of peeps who are waiting... and they have been historically known as fence-sitters... and sure they might not even consider themselves as either waiting or fence-sitters because some of them are somewhat apathetic in regards to having any kind of belief that bitcoin is capable of helping their future self for these increasingly weird times that we are in, but what else is new?

I am not even going to say that the pattern is repeating exactly.. because the times are surely strange - and frequently people will keep engaged in their same kinds of attempts at normalcy and considering that at some point things are going to go back to the way that they were.. Things are not necessarily going to get worse, right?  Just go at thing day by day, even while aspects of their lives are way more related to macro-financial denigrations than they realize.. ... The balls can stay in the air.. right?    

Maybe the question for the fence-sitters who do not realize that they are fence-sitters would be: "have you taken any actions in terms of even trying to get off of zero, such as setting up some kinds of BTC-related accounts?"  Might not be a bad time to start.  No time like the present, right.. price is nice and "stable"... hahahahaha  stable?  right.  There are some folks who believe in stable in the short-term, and I am not even saying that I have any better clue at short-term direction.. .. in that regard, we are teetering just below a price that would put me over 50/50 that the bottom is in... but we are not quite getting there... so be it.  So be it.

That assertion about trade volume being a condition precedent to achieve BIG MOVES is baloney ImThour.

Frequently, we will experience a kind of trickle up in BTC prices that is not accompanied by high volume until later.. and surely the moving up can trigger a later high volume, but high volume need NOT be the thing that comes first..

Accordingly, at some point, high volume might kick-in to begin a battle that may or many not change the direction/momentum that had already been taking place with relatively low volume...

I will concede that high volume may well confirm the underlying real nature of the UP move that had already been taking place, but high volume is not any kind of condition precedent that has to be there in order for UPpity to actually happen or to be in the works.. and if you think about the matter, sometimes by the time the high volume comes into place to try to stop; the UPpity, it is too little too late.. .but it still shows up on the charts as a battle that had taken place.

You would be pathetic.

There's nothing wrong with being a humble bumble.. but many errors have been made by guys who get into BTC and they take some kind of whimpy position/stance and then just rest on their laurels.

Of course, you should attempt to find your own adequate level of reasonable/prudent aggressiveness, and since bitcoin remains such an asymmetric bet, it is not like you need to invest a lot into it in order to have decent potentials of profiting stupendously from its upside potential...

so your level of aggressiveness needs to be something that you arrive at with a certain level of personal comfort (psychologically and financially)...

These days I would consider $10 per week to be a pretty whimpy level of BTC investment, but at least it is something and some people are ONLY able to do something like $10 per week.,. but even $10 per week is going to get you around 22k satoshis per week.   Also, these days, I have been pushing folks to consider if they can get up to $100 per week, and surely that is 10x more than $10 per week, and in that respect, each of us should be attempting to figure out how aggressive we can be without putting strain on our ability to meet our monthly expenses.. and even to maintain an emergency fund that does not cause us to have to dip into our BTC at any time that is other than our own choosing... which means that our emergency fund needs to be from sources/resources that are outside of our BTC investment.

I understand that you are just joking with your 1 satoshi reference.. yet the reality of the matter, especially if we view BTC accumulation in terms of satoshis, we can see that there are still decent abilities to accumulate quite a few satoshis without even having a really BIG budget.... and surely getting into the hundreds of thousands of satoshis and even into the millions of satoshis is still in reach  (for now) for many normies... but there is a need to act rather than just sitting back and waiting for the BTC price to go up.. and then later saying.. "oh shit, maybe I should have accumulated more back when satoshis were cheaper?" 

We have quite a few folks doing that.. and if we attempt to learn from the mistakes from others, we should be attempting to learn that it is better to act now to figure out a reasonable/prudent and perhaps aggressive BTC accumulation plan and put such plan into place rather than just waiting around for the BTC price to go up (which surely it is going to do, but if we ONLY have small levels of BTC/satoshi accumulation, its going to be more difficult to profit from the ongoing largest wealth transfer in history that is going on right in front of our eyes.. whether we can recognize it and appreciate it or not).



hahahahahaha

I can see that your seemingly overly skepticism can sometimes pay off quite well..

 


Sure.. a joke...

neither your post history or even the current state of bitcoin makes such joke obvious, which seem to me to justify a discussion of the actual substance.. whether funny or not.



The overall idea of that picture is not bad, and I would have sent a merit if it had not had some pretty deep underlying flaws.

It is not ONLY that I so detest that term "crypto," but just the use of the term "crypto" ends up helping to direct one's attention to aspects of the fundamental flaws of the image... and, I surely doubt that it is helpful to be using such a term in order to attempt to appreciate what is really going on in this here digitalization of financial space...

Maybe I will help with a rhetorical question?  Have you ever heard of bitcoin?

Bitcoin happens to be quite an innovative thing that was first outlined in a whitepaper in late 2008 and then its first block was mined in January 2009. 

Seems to me that the thingie-ma-jiggie called bitcoin is really what facilitated the ability to both have meaningful digital financialization but also to ensure that such digital financialization is almost completely unfuck-with-able.  It really did not start in 2020.. but the innovative break-through happened around 2008/2009.. and maybe it took a few years to realize that the innovative break-through that had taken place in 2008/2009 - and many of us realized the financial innovation way the hell before 2020 - even though even now some peeps/normies/newbies are just barely beginning to recognize such digital financialization break through that found a significant break through in around 2008/2009...

40 days and 40 nights perhaps?


At various times, I had conceded to having more than 0.63 BTC, and even though I may well have some pretty decent ideas about portfolio management and striving to tailorize BTC accumulation within your own personal circumstances, there are no guarantees either way.. .either being able to sustain any stash that has been reached to date - or even to arrive at something like 1BTC, which still seems like it could reasonably be within reach for either normie who has been in BTC for a while or a normie who may well engage in ongoing relatively aggressive BTC accumulation methods.

Another question might need to be whether more realism need to snap into the minds of the various longer term WO members?  Sure there might well be a decent number of longer term WO members who have exceeded or quite exceeded 1 BTC, but at the same time, there continues to be needs for attempts at abilities to relate across the spectrum of different levels of BTC accumulators/HODLers.

Remember mindrust's purported elation at temporarily reaching a portfolio size of 10 BTC in March 2020... any newbies or normies reaching 10 BTC with any kind of easiness is surely going to be a relic of the past.. so it is getting close to the point now that 1 BTC has become the new 10 BTC from just 2 years ago.. and longer-term BTC accumulators/HODLers need to get this into our heads... It's getting more and more difficult to even reach 1 BTC, so in that regard, the level of mindrust's purported elation about a portfolio size of 10 BTC in 2020 is soon coming to the reaching of a portfolio size of 1 BTC..

We have to attempt to be realistic, even if we might not quite be at that point of the enormity of 1 BTC, yet... emphasis on yet.... because it seems to be becoming more and more obvious that certain low, low BTC prices (that would allow normies to largely accumulate BTC on a low budget) are more fantasy rather than realistic.

One of your problems Wind_FURY is that you continue to repeat your poor mental framework based on various presumptions that either you or other people (especially newbie normies) have very strong abilities to see BTC's price direction, before it happens.

Hopefully, not too many forum members are taking you so serious as to screw up their own preparations for UP because they are spending too much time believing that they are going to be able to buy upon a BTC price dip that may well not happen.

I am not saying that I know anything, even though I have been watching and practicing with BTC buying for more than 8 years....and over and over we see that some folks end up panic buying on the way up because they failed/refused to sufficiently/adequately prepare for up because they were so busy believing that they were going to be able to buy on a dip... blah blah blah.

In other words, there is some value and need to buy regularly, even if there is also some value in attempting to buy on dips, too.


For sure, it is a good suggestion that people who are still early in the BTC accumulation stage, should be attempting to engage in various ways to increase their cashflow and their abilities to set aside money to invest in BTC.  It's likely going to pay off .. especially if there is a 4 year to 10 year or longer investment timeline.



Again, Wind_FURY there is a bit of a problematic angle to your ongoing presumption that any bear market is going to allow for either the purchase of BTC at prices lower than our current price or that some newbie BTC accumulator is not going to be better off just getting some BTC now rather than waiting the fuck around for a price dip that may or may not happen.

Of course, there are going to be differences between different kinds of BTC newbies... One who might have already accumulated a bit of BTC, one who has some lump sum amount that s/he might be able to invest right away, variations in cashflow amounts whether a person can spare $50 per month to invest in bitcoin or $5k per month.. Those various differences in circumstances are going to affect the approach regarding how much to buy now, how much to prepare for buying on dips, and whether to employ a DCA strategy too.. which is a very powerful tool.. as I have mentioned around a zillion times.

For sure I would like to see a re-make of this size classification... because surely, it is quickly becoming unrealistic for newbie normies to even reach crab status.. .so it would be nice to attempt to relate to newbie normies.

Seems to me that this chart has been around for at least as long as I have been in bitcoin.. which is late 2013.. and it seems that our price drop in 2014 and even our BTC price stagnation in 2015 allowed for the chart to stay relevant, even through that whole period..

consider the matter


Through much of 2015, it would have been quite easy to get into bitcoin for less than $250 per BTC, but through much of that time, so many folks were quite scared of bitcoin's then seemingly future price direction, and it is shown by how long the BTC price mostly stayed below $250.., and remember that the BTC price even dipped to test $200 again as late as late August 2015... so holy fuck can you think about depressing.,. but still at the same time realistic for that chart to apply to the situation of normies.. so even if these days we might say that normies are going to struggle to get even 0.5BTC with a BTC dedicated bankroll of $20k, back in 2015, they could have gotten anywhere between 50 and 100 BTC with such bankroll, and maybe that is why the middle of the chart.. represented by fish, would have been attainable for even any normie who was ready, willing and able to be aggressive in his/her bitcoin investment.  

But, even someone who had been already establishing a decently sized investment portfolio and arriving close to something like $1 million, may have been willing to invest 10% of his/her investment portfolio into BTC, and would have gotten something like 250 BTC to 500 BTC from such 10% investment (talking about putting $100k into BTC).

In other words, to me it seems unrealistic to be using that chart, and even though we have likely had to move our fuck you status up from $1 million to $2 million, we still should be considering the ability to place normie newbies in some reasonable place in the chart, even if it might not be in the middle of the chart but at least somewhere that comes above the first level.. because I would argue that normie newbies are going to have a lot of troubles (unless they happen to be that close to retiring person who has gotten his/her investment portfolio up to something approaching $2 million) getting up to even above 1 BTC......

Actually, maybe it is worth a wee bit of a devolution to discuss the situation of someone (call them precoiner) who might be currently approaching a fuck you status of $2 million in traditional investments, but is only recently coming into a consideration of investing into BTC.  Historically, I had been suggesting that such person get the fuck off of zero, and get 1% to 10% into bitcoin.

These days I am still suggesting to get the fuck off of zero, but consider 1% to 25% as your entry-level  into BTC.. so in that regard, a person who has already accomplished something close to $2 million in his/her investment portfolio will still be wanting to get into bitcoin in order to attempt to both preserve and to grow the value that has already been attained - also presuming an ability to maybe not get too worried about any need to withdraw any BTC that is currently invested for at least 4 years from the the time of investment.. so at current BTC prices (let's call them $40k to $55k -ish)... such person who has a $2 million investment portfolio would come out with anywhere between 0.3636 BTC (that's 1% invested at $55k - which is only investing $20k) to 12.5 BTC  (that's 25% invested at $40k - which is investing $500k)...

So even someone getting close to fuck you status without a bitcoin component is going to both be faced with a dilemma regarding whether and how much to invest into BTC, but also how quickly to attempt to reach his/her target allocation once such quantity decision has been reached.

For sure, anyone can come up with new revised fish propagation level.. and I would imagine that there needs to be way more acknowledgement of the variation within the lower levels because even those newbie normies getting in these days have decent chances of having quite a bit of empowerment at both below a 1 BTC level and even within the 1-10 BTC accumulation range.


This too.  I was going to mention something like this within my above response.. but I guess I got too caught up in my other more general discussion points.

Surely, I do not mind talking about this in terms of the theoretical categories - and without necessarily getting into details of personal stash levels.. even though sometimes we do like to talk about potential personal stash levels and stash management whether normies or even someone who might have achieved more flexibility in terms of reaching various personal targets over the years.. and surely, even if some of us may have reached some personal targets through the years, we cannot even be assured that we might not have made a few screw-ups along the way, too... shit happens... that's for sure. .

Historically, in bitcoinlandia, the round numbers do not tend to work like that - even if quite a few normies seem to have tendencies to go down that belief path. 

In other words, the resistance is usually somewhere in the ballpark of 7-10% below such numbers, and once we get into a kind of less than 5% range, not ONLY does the going over-the-top tend towards inevitable, it also tends towards more than 10% overshoot...

Look at the first time breaches of $10, $100, $1k and $10k... sure there was some back and forth, but ultimately there was pretty decent overshooting once the price got close to the breaching.

By the way, I was not around for the $10 and $100 breaches, so I can only go by the charts, which seem pretty clear.. including if we go back to the first time breaching above $1 too... .. even though sometimes, I am not sure if we can really be making fair comparison of BTC now versus earlier days - which could well support the "this time is different" framework - but I really have my doubts about those kinds of desires to assert that this time is as different as would like to be spun.. merely because bitcoin is BIGGER.. ... and part of the problem with the presumptions that bitcoin has become too BIG for its britches is that the players coming into bitcoin have also gotten BIGGER too.. so it seems to me that the BIGness of the players coming into bitcoin tends to compensate for bitcoin getting BIGGER and there may be more shorting financial instruments thrown at bitcoin... yet those BIGGER players likely have less ability to keep bitcoin down than they believe that they have... and some of them are likely to get hurt pretty bad in their betting with assets that they do not have.

Sure, it is possible that this time is different - and bitcoin has difficulties getting above the 5 digits realm - yet I would even be willing to conjecture that once bitcoin gets above $95k-ish.. the breaching of $100k becomes nearly inevitable in spite fantasies of various bitcoin naysayers, no coiners, fence sitters, shitcoin pumpeners and/or other similar kinds of "failure/refusal to appreciate the power of bitcoin" dweebs.

Exactly!!!!!
 
We (beyond royal) are way more substantive than CB, too... even if that dweeb has issues (intentionally leaving this part ambiguous... hahahahahhaha)


Get out of here.

#nohomo... it's just an expression


By the way:

@philipma or @poolminor or @cryptotourist or @whoever wants to argue about BTC price following hash and that kind of delusional (and backwardization) nonsense...   I had not seen any discussion about the hory shhhheeeeiiiittt increase in the hashpower in the past couple of days.  We got through more than half of this particular difficulty period and it was starting to look as if the difficulty was going to be negative, even by a couple of percentage points (by the way, only 1 of the last 15 difficulty periods have been negative), and then all of a sudden...... BBBBBAAAAAAAAMMMMMM - the hashrate shoots up like a rocket.. to show that the hashrate is likely going to get something like a 4% increase (we will find out in about a day and a half.. as I type this post).  

Surely some of the less efficient miners are going to get squeezed out of profitabilities with these kinds of sudden increases in hashpower.. and yeah back into ATH hashrate territories for the past three difficulty periods (if this one is included)..

Does not show up as any kind of Holy moly drama on this chart.. but nonetheless, the chart shows that hashrate was going down quite steadily since the beginning of February and then up relatively quickly and surpassing even the top of where is was in early February in the past couple of days.
https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate


See current pace of this difficulty:
>>>>
Latest Block:   723530  (16 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   104.0660%  (1803 / 1732.55 expected, 70.45 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   26643185256535.46                            
Current Difficulty:   26690525287405.5                            
Next Difficulty:   between 27766095565711 and 27778732668312
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.0298% and +4.0771%
Previous Retarget:   February 3, 2022 at 6:32 PM  (+0.1777%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 5:24 AM  (in 1d 10h 6m 46s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 5:33 AM  (in 1d 10h 15m 34s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 10h 52m 19s and 13d 11h 1m 6s
<<<
https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


See historical difficulty adjustments:

https://btc.com/stats/diff?_ga=2.166892222.1079250679.1586286038-48233127.1586286038

I did notice the name-calling.... that seems to be your go-to.. and surely easily provoked into such.... I hardly even need to say boo.... and there you go into it.


yeah, but are you sticking with that range for the remainder of the calendar year?  Even though you asserted it, you are not really willing to go there with any kind of conviction.

We may well be above $60k within the next few months...

Of course, getting above $60k could happen way more quickly (such as a week or two), but these things tend to need time to play out.. even though a 35% or so rise in BTC price could happen pretty damned quickly.. before any of us even realize it.

Remember October 25, 2019?  There was a nearly a 30% rise in the BTC price from $7,400 to $10,200 in something like 12 hours, but then the next month the BTC price corrected back down to below $7k… Of course, the April 1, 2019 price rise of 3.5X from $4,200 to $13,880 took three months to play out… My point is that sometimes the BTC price rises seem to come somewhat out of the blue.. and then they may or may not last when they go up so quickly…

When we are playing with ATH, there have also been other times the BTC price rises and shoots past the ATH.. but then does not correct back down.. and so that remains one of the relatively BIG outstanding matters that we have regarding whether our Lillie fiend has preserved any of its explosive UPpity characteristics from earlier days… I would not rule those out.


I am not sure where you are getting the 70% because I have not deviated from my idea that we are still in a bull run.. and you know that I usually do not go very far beyond 50%, and so maybe you could say that my 55% odds came down to 51% or 52%.. I am not exactly sure where I stand, but as far as 70% odds on such a tight question, that would not be me making those kinds of assertions.

You need to narrow down the question a bit more if you want me to proclaim something like 70% odds.. I am willing to do it, but I would doubt that you would find any such assertion from me to be very controversial, and you might just say something like, “well duh” if you hear me making that level of confidence in terms something that I expect into the future.

For example:  if you look at my chart of probabilities from 12/16/21.. you will see that at that time, I assigned 70% odds that the BTC price would finish below $120k for this particular run with an assumption that it's most likely that the run would be done by no later than 3rd quarter 2022.. which would mean that I gave 30% odds for the top of the cycle finishing somewhere above $120k.. which are pretty high odds, I suppose.

Oh?  I see in that same chart that I had place 71% odds that the top of the cycle would be by the end of the 1st quarter of 2022.. but obviously, I don't believe that right now because it seems that the top is being drug out.. .. so those probabilities have shifted out into a further timeline for sure... We only have 6 weeks left to finish the 1st quarter of 2022. 
I just give my opinion at the time.. so you can see that I placed 45% odds that the bullrun had already finished and peaked out with our $69k.. so that would be less than 50% odds... I don't know if my numbers were unrealistic, but that was my assignment of numbers at the time... and I suppose now, I am still in the category of considering that we are still in a bull run, so I would not be assigning any greater than 49% odds to the $69k being our top for this run. 

I doubt that anyone can really come at these matters with high levels of conviction, and for sure it makes it risky to solidify the numbers that are likely to be changing, but seems more important to be more solid in preparation of BTC portfolio management and preparing oneself psychologically and financially rather than attempting to play around very much with decently uncertain short-term price probability assignments.

In my opinion, there are ways to set up your BTC portfolio so that you can be correct (or at least psychologically and financially comfortable) almost no matter what... or at least to be psychologically and financially prepared for a pretty broad array of possibilities.


Wick out...? is a pretty narrow way of describing a situation.. ..... yet you are still being quite vague in terms of what you mean.. but what else is new?

Oh gawd.. you are pathetic.


Do you have anything more interesting to discuss in regards to your latest theories about BTC price or something a bit more substantive?
What do you think about our current $40k to $46k price range?

How about the so far $32,951 bottom?  Are we going to get another challenge to such $32,951 bottom before we get a challenge to $50k-ish?

Anything else that might be interesting besides your ongoing easy distraction into nonsenses?  Did you buy the dip?  or are you still waiting?



How are we going to know the extent to which we are being lied to? and geez if there are rights to assemble to petition your government for redress of grievances, then sure there could be some questions of balance in terms of how much disruption might be allowed, and is the use of trucks something that can be managed.. surely the use of trucks brings some pretty BIG tools (leverage) on the side of the protesters, and we know that acts of violence are frequently exaggerated (so i have my doubts about the truthfulness of those claims, like ModRobert mentioned), though of course, tensions are going to increase sometimes when there are people coming to the grievance (protest) with agendas that are not always too synchronized in terms of what the group might be wanting to get regarding government overreach - which ends up being double-down upon. 

I am not claiming to know the answers and I do value the rights to protest, assemble seek redress of grievances.. but I doubt that it is clear that the protest should just stop because some people don't like it, it's inconvenient, there are negative economic impacts.. even though there could be some value in getting the message out there.. but if they are not receiving anything but heavy backlash from the government (no concessions at all), then the protesters are likely inclined to double down rather than back down when the see the government doubling down and failing /refusing to treat any of their grievances seriously.


What about the kinds of people who use gobbledy-gook language, and you are not really sure what they are talking about?


I do agree that our current NFT phenomena does have a lot of weirdness within it...

I know that you use bitcoin in your last sentence, but the rest of your post is mentioning "crypto"...

fuck crypto.


this thread is not asking about crypto, so why get distracted into such loose framing of the matter...

focus on bitcoin and attempt to answer the question again.

Now if you are using the term "crypto" and bitcoin interchangeably, then it likely shows that you don't really understand bitcoin or at least your thinking is a bit muddled on the topic.

What are you doing then, sushil?

It's not like any plan or practice is going to be fool proof, and many of us already appreciate that it is almost impossible to predict any exact bottom or to know how long the BTC price is going to stay down when it is down.

So if you have a cashflow coming in, you can reserve part of that for buying various dips at various price points, and you can use other portions of your incoming cashflow to buy no matter what the price.. just in case the dip is already in.

There is no exact answer, but it seems that one pattern exists for people who have been in BTC for longer periods of time, and those who had continued to buy on a regular basis have tended to do quite well especially after one or two cycles.. so 4 years or longer.

Of course, if you timeline is shorter than 4 years or even 10 years, then you might end up in a world of hurt because you are too busy with being preoccupied about the BTC price rather than just accumulating on a regular basis... it can take a while for any investment to really pay off, and BTC seems to be amongst those kinds of investments.. there are no guarantees, either... but bitcoin does seem to be a decently good (maybe the best) of asymmetric bets that are available to normies.. and you can start with small amounts or larger amounts if you have it, but even if you have larger amounts, you might still be cautious in terms of how much to allocate to bitcoin and what approach to take in order to reach whatever BTC accumulation targets you set for yourself and the targets that you might also tweak along the way, too.

I suppose that largely when I say "understanding where we were" or "where we are" or even "where we might be going", I am largely referring to a larger context.

Sure, we have short term dynamics that need to be overcome, but if we zoom out to a larger context, many of us likely appreciate that there is a lot of underlying bitcoin dynamics that are not captured by short-term charts and short-term behaviors.. ... so in that regard, I do not give too many shits about short term analysis and getting into any kinds of details to attempt to predict what might happen.., will we get over $46k or not?  things like that..   We will see once it happens, and part of my point is merely that it feels quite a bit more comfortable to be further away (further up) from the most recent local bottom, than it feels to be within striking distance of such bottom... volume comes or not.. I give few shits.. because we have seen price rises that happen on large volume and low volume.. so sometimes there just is not enough ability to keep pushing the price down.. and BTC price just starts to trickle up whether large volume is involved or not.


You can analyze lines to your heart's content.. .I give few shits... nothing personal.

At this time, I am personally not going to feel more comfortable about the bottom of $32,951 being in until we get above $46k for about a day or more... and sure, I might change my tune, and maybe I am a bit random or SOMA in my consideration of that number, but I consider my price point to be as good as the $44k line.. because we have already been at $44k and $45k and even we were nearly at $46k for a short period of time..... so sure.. maybe we could already say that the bottom is in or whatever, but $44k still seems like a lot of noise to me.. give me more, moar, MOAR.. and sure it is ONLY a couple thousand.. but the fact that we were so close to $46k about 5 days ago.. gives me more confidence that it would be better to get above such seemingly random price point... before my confidence that the bottom is in goes up from 45% to 53.46295%  or whatever happens to be my current feeling about the matter.

Another thing is that in around July-ish, I was using $46k as my price-point at that time too.... .and I am not sure why I am gravitating to $46k again, but the passage of time, does seem to allow for $46k to be used again, even though our local bottom this time around of $32,951 is more than $4k higher than our summer 2021 bottom of $28,600-ish. 

Call me a turd.. but I don't get too many pleasures from getting too caught up in various short-term predictions based on various squiggly lines, even though I do tend to merit your posts for sharing that kind of information.. for sure, taken with a grain of salt.. and not too much weight given to them.. .. and if you start to argue to attempt to give them more importance than they likely deserve then you are likely going to find me fight back with such proclamations, even if you may have made some decent points about potential short-term noise, including but not limited to resistance/support levels.

Does not look similar to me..,. hahahahaha

but what do I know?


Mia... you seem to be getting overly analytical of macro events in your attempt to figure out where bitcoin is and where bitcoin might be going.

Surely in the short to medium term BTC prices can well be correlated with a lot of macro factors, but it seems that the people who have done quite well in bitcoin, have focused upon themselves and their own reasonable and prudent abilities to establish a bitcoin stash and to increase their stash no matter which way the BTC price goes in the short term.  Surely you have been around the forum for nearly 6 years, so you could have been quite well off by following such a strategy.. and surely a quick look at your post history, it seems that you may have continued to have a lot of reservations about bitcoin and distractions into various shitcoins... and other bullshit since you have been a member of the forum.

My own personal investing into bitcoin started in late 2013, but surely I would not proclaim that the first 3 years were easy because much of that time my earliest BTC purchases were not in profits, and even my whole BTC portfolio was questionable in terms of it having had been in the negative for most of that time... but I persisted with DCA investing.. especially during those first three years... I did supplement with buying on dips and lump sum investing too.. but many of the buying on dips were not the dips of the dips, and even the lump sum investing suffered similar fates of witnessing the BTC price dropping lower even after I had made decently-sized.. purchases that would have been much better to wait a bit longer.

So for example, in late 2014 (October/November/December), I decided to get up to my target investment into BTC around $400, and I likely even got some BTC in the $380s too.. so i was pretty sure that the bottom was in... but of course, we know what happened in late December 2014.. and then persisted for much of 2015.. in which the BTC price came close to halfing from there.. well it dropped down to $150-ish for short periods and was stuck around $230 to $250 for a considerable amount of time.... so that was kind of depressing to see that I had done various lump sums around $400 when i would have had lots of opportunities to buy those same BTC in the lower $200s through the next 8-10 months.... fuck.

Even though 2015 ended up being a stressful period for me, my level of investment into bitcoin did not go so far as to cause me to have to sell any BTC during that time, and I was able to continue DCA'ing during 2015 even though I had front-loaded in 2014.  Sure we can monday morning quarter-back how I approached the whole matter, but really I cannot see any reasonably better practice that might have had its own risks of causing me to fuck around too much rather than just emphasizing my own ongoing BTC accumulation within my budget.

Currently, bitcoin seems to be a much better investment with more certainty than it was in 2013-2015... even though the upside potential has been shrunken over the years.. .. and in that regard, it seems that DCA remains amongst the best of practices.

Just think if you have been DCA'ing into BTC for the past 6 years at $100 per week, you would currently be at around 13 BTC.. Of course, if your BTC portfolio is not very large right now, it may be nearly impossible to ever get back to being able to get 13 BTC, but surely there are ways to be ongoingly assertive in terms of getting decent stake into BTC in order that you feel sufficiently prepared for UP.. and maybe also keeping a decent amount of dry powder available so that you are prepared to both buy on dips and just continue DCA'ing into BTC no matter what the cost.. and to take some of those "what ifs" blah blah blah out of your way of thinking about the whole matter.

Some people get too worried that they might be able to get more if the BTC price drops, and from the perspective of several of us longer term BTC accumulators in the WO thread especially, those worries about the various "what ifs" seems like pretty BIG so whats because if you continue to accumulate BTC, it is likely that one or two cycles down the road, you will find that your ongoing persistence in accumulating BTC ended up paying off and kept you in action rather than paralyzed by various "what if" thinking.

Investing into bitcoin 4-10 years or longer, is a good mental start, and of course if your timeline is shorter, then you might need to reconsider aspects of your approach, while at the same time considering various aspects of your own situation to be able to tailor your BTC accumulation strategy such as your cashflow, your other investments, your timeline, your view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, your risk tolerance, your time, skills and abilities to plan, learn and tweak along the way which may involving reallocating or trading or the use of various financial instruments such as leverage, margin or options.. and surely, I am not asserting that it is a good idea to use more sophisticated BTC portfolio management until working out your own personal basics and targets first.

You seem to be saying something similar to me, at least in terms of not really knowing which way the BTC price is going to go based on the data.. and in that regard, a certain amount of time above certain price thresholds is needed to gain confidence... I currently consider that to be around $46k.. but that is surely a kind of SOMA approximation from my perspective about how far away the BTC price is getting above the current $32,951 bottom... and for sure, even if the odds that the bottom being in goes from 45% to 70% (and I would not claim that the odds are going that high but maybe instead from 45% to 54% or something like that), there would still be 30% odds that the bottom ends up NOT being in, even though pretty damned high levels of confidence had been achieved by going and staying above $46k (for example) for a day...

In other words, the lower odd scenarios should never be completely ruled out, even when they start to get low in terms of percentages, yet at the same time, I do not spend a whole hell of a lot of my brainpower or finances preparing for scenarios that I perceive to be less than 10% odds, and some diptwats seem to be spending considerable time preparing for scenarios that seem to have less than 2% odds from my perspective and I presume that they are assigning higher odds to such scenarios that I consider to be highly unlikely otherwise those people are even harder to relate to and from my perspective seemingly more detached from reality than what is reasonable.

Even if Ratimov's chart is showing a resistance around $44k.. we have already been to $44k and even $45k.. and we were almost to $46k...

Personally, I believe that there is a need to both break above $46k and to stay above for around 1 day or longer... and that does not confirm that we are returning to the bull run, but instead that the bottom of $32,951 is likely in...

Personally, I believe it is better to approach these matters way more conservatively than to go from questions about whether the bottom is in to questions regarding the bullrun returning - which surely those may end up being largely very similar results that are achieved by passing above certain BTC price thresholds.

Surely I do not want to proclaim to knowing very much at all about where the BTC price going to go with any kind of level of certainty or confidence, but I still think that there is some value in both reaching certain higher levels of certainty.. even if the higher levels of certainty do not end up playing out.

Under current BTC price dynamics, I would sum up the matter something like this (even Biodom - either a nemisis or a copy cat - has said very similar things):

1) getting above $46k for a day or longer (and sure there might be some other price thresholds in there too?) allows for higher levels of certainty that the $32,951 bottom is in

2) something like $46k to $52k is a kind of "it can go either way" territory

3) $52k to $62k will grant higher levels of confidence that we are going to be challenging resistance on the way UP rather than challenging support on the way DOWN

4) Getting above $62k largely puts us back into noman's land in which something like $92k has high odds of being reached.. so the current $69k ATH falls within this area as a kind of "pass through" price.

Surely, none of these are guaranteed, and there is some product of the passage of time that could well cause reconsiderations of the above stated BTC price ranges, their significance and likelihoods of large corrections along the way..

Many of us know that even though it happens from time to time, rarely do we go straight up, but of course, getting momentum does become helpful for whether we seem to be heading up or down.. and passing certain BTC price points can increase sentiments that momentum exists and might even become a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy once it is recognized as an actual thing that exists.

I would imagine that the survey seems more legit if the pin/password/credentials are slipped in the middle... and as ways to "confirm" the information/receipt of funds etc etc....

Of course, there is a bit of a "honeypot" of potentially gullible people when something around half of the population has downloaded such a wallet and started to use it (at least once to get their initial $30 airdrop)...

It is sad.. but of course, people are going to fall for those kinds of gimmicks.. and there are likely people still getting used to the "internet," various aspects of the wallet, and hearing about the ability to get another $50 because they had already received $30 once, so why not $50 a second time?

I get confused too about what the hell PlanB had been saying at various points in time because he did get caught up in some seeming flaming wars and then too many specifics in his interpretation, sometimes.   

I believe that the S2F model has always said $100k as an average for the period.. but he mixed up his discussion of his "proprietary" floor model with his S2F model when getting into some of those specifics. .and I was never really any fan of getting into specifics..

Of course, staying within 1 SD is way better than getting into 2SD.. and probably if the BTC price spends too much time outside of 2SD or the edge of 2SD, there is some kind of tweaking that is needed with the model. 

I know that a lot of people say bitcoin is math and all that bullshit, but there are still a lot of weak aspects that cause BTC price to be both influenced by human behavior and to be manipulated by human behavior, so in that regard, I have no problem with any kind of model to be tweakable to account for actual facts as they play out... ... and I know that since my early days on the forum I would criticize quite a few members who had similar models to the S2F model and seemed to be too overly reliant upon math and trying to lock bitcoin price into some kind of exact (rather than loose) formula.

At the sake of redunancy, I still think that S2F remains amongst the best of the models that are out there, and even if there ends up needing to be some tweaking of what the average ends up being for this halvening period to have to reduce it from $100k to $80k or even to $60k, I doubt that there is any major issue from my point of view regarding those kinds of tweakings, if they were to have to take place.  I already mentioned that a mere ongoing trajectory of 75% annual increases in the 200-week moving average (which is completely consistent with overall historical numbers - and even low as compared with the 2021 performance of 130%), bring the BTC average price at the end of this halvening cycle to $88k... so the model is really not very far off, if we end up getting something like $88k - but even if it performs lower than that, we surely have to see how such performance ends up playing out before getting too upset about the model ... and even having problems in which we believe that there is some model that is actually in existence that would have come closer to being more accurate.

I do understand why you are less than excited about some of the ways that PlanB had been talking about his model, especially some of his arrogance in mid to late 2021, and then some of his seeming shifting of the narrative in late 2021.... and sure maybe he had been getting too caught up in absolute statements (which he is not completely innocent of that currently), so surely sometimes it does seem that he needs to take some of his emotions and some of his getting too caught up in specifics out of his model presentations and discussion of the model... in order to represent the model better.

Nothing too much going on with S2F recently - except that PlanB is still expecting the reversion to the $100k anticipated mean, and now he is saying "by 2023"... Interesting, no?

His most recent tweet:  "Both S2F and logarithmic regression point to $100K in 2023."




https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1493207617820315650

The main reason that I came to this thread was because I had been thinking about my earlier post regarding any coin/project/protocol would need to be more than 10x greater than bitcoin to displace it - like what I said here:


Today, I had been thinking further about this idea that any challenger has to be at 10x better than bitcoin in order to overtake it, because there are probably 100s or even 1,000s of shitcoins that have made various improvements upon bitcoin that would have been better than bitcoin if those features had been in bitcoin at the time of bitcoin's implementation, and if they are wielding features that are 50% better or some multiple better than bitcoin, whether we are talking about transactions or blockchain management, then surely bitcoin can absorb/adopt those features on level 1 or some other 2nd or 3rd layer, and part of the criticism of bitcoin may well be that it is NOT going to be able to implement/absorb or adopt such new and improved features because such features were not "built-into" bitcoin at the beginning... yet since there are people building their businesses around bitcoin (network effects), that particular feature is going to need to be 10x better in order to attract the network effects over to it, rather than bitcoin. 

Getting back to stock to flow, part of the criticism that S2F is not correct happens to have some presumptions that bitcoin is not strong enough in order to really have the empowerment of the scarcity that it says that it has, and shitcoins/projects are taking away from some of this scarcity (and going to displace bitcoin).

Hey, I have no problem moving myself over to some other project or coin if it is actually going to become the bitcoin displacer (and the new incumbent), but many of us already likely realize the reality of the matter to be that so many touted features in various shitcoins (supposed bitcoin killers) might appear "on paper" to actually be 10x better than bitcoin, but still those features have to be so clear and convincing to lure bitcoin's network effects over to them... which many of us likely can recognize the difference between touted features (snake oil salesmen - or on paper features) versus the real deal application of such features..

We also, likely realize that nothing is either close to bitcoin or even close to actually having 10x or better features than bitcoin that would inspire even laypersons to gravitate over to it (beyond those laypersons who are temporarily deceived into going over to such shitcoin project hoping that they will become a rich early adopter, just in case the network effects are coming over to their shitcoin rather than staying on bitcoin)..

BCH and BSV have served as pretty decent examples of how much better the BIG block ideas have been... and got a lot of normies (and even smart people) reckt who believed in the BIG blocker ideas.  Furthermore, their dreams of getting rich quicker through their new innovative BIG blocker coins have been snuffed out.  BIG blocks was not a better idea.. and surely not anything close to 10x better.

Fair enough.  You have a right towards considering what is important, and my response was largely an indirect way of attempting to say that I don't consider it to be very important.. or at least not as important as personally preparing for both BTC price directions, but especially UP.

People have their priorities... so yeah, I have historically been pretty aggressively negative towards peeps who are proclaiming to have high levels of certainty regarding the BTC price direction..... so maybe we are getting into my personal pet peeves... ...and yeah.. if there are claims about who is more correct and ways to actually scientifically show that kind of correctness, I would be amazed.. I would imagine that there are quite a few folks who can claim to be correct, but they make vague ass predictions that might go in a kind of direction, and then later proclaim that they are correct, and they might even have predictions going in both directions.. it does not seem to be an easy or even a worthy of time task to be striving to figure out who is the best of the sorcerers or the best of the sorcerer wannabes.. but that's my opinion.. you can spend your brain power and efforts however you believe to be most beneficial.


good luck with that.  Seems that you will need it.

You also made a similar prediction when we were around $35k.. so I suppose that was your selling point.

Remember?

You were planning on selling and buying back lower?

I suppose if you already sold at $35k-ish, then you are quite anxious to figure out a buying back point.. and you would prefer to be in profits rather than chasing the train.. but you may need a lot of good Karma for that.. including that you should not have sold in the first place.

A better position to be in would have been someone who bought (instead of sold) in the $35k-ish price territory.... then you would be ahead of the game and waiting for the price to come to you rather than talking nonsense out of hope that the price will come to you so that you can buy back in.

To me it seems like a kind of gambling luck is what you are hoping for.. and at this point, maybe even a bit of a long shot, too.  At this point, given our BTC price dynamics, it is no longer clear that $31,951 is going to be retested as so many (even bitcoin bulls) were believing a few weeks ago, and even though I am not convinced that our "bottom is in" absent getting above $46k and staying there for a day or so (and even then I would not be overly confident, but confident enough to start to feel that the "bottom is in", the odds are quite a bit higher now that the "bottom is in" as compared with even a couple of weeks ago.. back when you sold your BTC in the $35k-ish price arena.

Not really a BIG deal that you sold at or close to the bottom while planning on buying back lower, there are quite a few people who make those attempts or feel that they need such insurance, and maybe it is less of a BIG deal so long as you did not employ very much of your stash (less than a few percentage points perhaps?) and that you did not use leverage.. hopefully you did not do that, right?

Over the years, we (including your truly) have seen quite a few examples of guys talking their book while acting like they are not and cheering for down while being convinced that the bottom is not yet in, and many times mistakes are made when either greed/fear sinks in and guys do the opposite of what they should be doing upon a 50% price drop (for example).  Yeah, I know it can be difficult to buy when the BTC price had dropped 50%, but buying after a 50% price drop does tend to be a better move in contrast to selling and waiting for the BTC price to go down further and hoping that we are in a bear market (which is at best a 50/50 proposition.. maybe even a 49/51 or lower proposition.. so not wise to be betting on short-term BTC price moves when the odds are not really as much in your favor as some (likely wrong) folks are proclaiming your odds to be.  

Now, sad again that your lack of confidence in bitcoin is coming out and you are one of those proclaiming down for the next 2 years.. yeah right... right...      It could happen, but I would not be proclaiming high odds of such.. even anything above 50/50 would likely be higher than realistic levels of confidence, at this point.

Edit:
By the way fr4nkthetank, I likely misread some of the seeming sarcasm in your post, and I will admit that initially, I was getting you mixed up in my head with UnDerDoG81 who posted this:



but you had posted something similar.. even though not exactly as extreme and directly disclosing of bear sentiments as UnDerDoG81.

Remember?  You posted the below which was a bit less bearish?


Even though you may have been joking, I am not going to change the substance of anything that I said above because my above post was meant as a substantive commentary regarding any expressed certainty of a 2-year bear market whether we are talking about bitcoin or if the various shitcoins/NFTs and other scams might drag down bitcoin's price or be drug down themselves.  Surely there is quite a bit of ambiguity in what you said, and surely none of my comments are meant to delve too much into your personal bitcoin stash management...

Ultimately, bitcoin stash management is a product of various choices that each of us make. whether we sell and/or the extent to which we might be concerned about our books when we discuss bitcoin direction/dynamics..  For sure, any of us can get somewhat scared after a 50% dip of the price and inadequately prepare ourselves for UP, so I am not even excluding anyone from making those kinds of potential mistakes.. even with your seeming joke of assigning pretty high values to down.... no?  overly preparing for down has been a pretty common ongoing mistake amongst newbies and amongst more experienced bitcoiners...   names needed?  I doubt it.. 

Hey, I just looked at your profile, and you have been around these here parts for as long as me.. so by now, you should have your BTC portfolio under decent control by now, no?  You don't need to assign seemingly overly optimistic values to down do you?  or is my sense of humor just devolving into suckie levels?