Thanks for doing this. Prediction markets are fun. I used to clean up on contracts at http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/ If you are a news junkie and regularly can see what is happening early on, you might like this a lot. sorry for offtopic, but why is intrade currently deactivated? You must have information about this when you were cleaning up on contracts there. (shoot me a pm if you don´t want to derail the thread further) This was years ago (2004?). It became hard to get money in and out of my account in Ireland and the contracts became less interesting. Originally, if you followed the news and did some homework you could outguess the market as a whole and reap some profit. It seemed to me that over time the contracts became more difficult to predict and celebrity based. I didn't know about their recent troubles. Pitty. I'll offer my defense of prediction markets as penance for my derailment. I would love to see a good implementation of a prediction market in bitcoin. I think it could serve a use beyond speculation. It could be a new important media source, even an everyday app for making decisions. In the famous story about the discovery of the "wisdom of the crowd", Francis Galton finds the best guess as to the weight of an ox is a large sampling of guesses. What is less emphasized is that the guesses were actually bets. By adding a scalable risk and reward people are encouraged to act in their own best interest thus doing better research and mitigating personal bias. In aggregate the results reflect more than say a poll. A poll is a better gauge of what people are willing to say than what their internal best guess is. In the future I could easily see monetized crowd sourcing for all sorts of decisions. Some people would pay a lot of money for best guesses now. Intrade was a goto for many in the press during elections. Anyway, I'd be interested in it. |
|
|
|
|
This guy should know! ...he's recently heard of bitcoin. Combine this with his super-human ability to know the future and you have a prognostication you can bank on.
|
|
|
|
I'm going to take a guess that the OP has not worked with the CIA nor has he ever known anyone in the CIA nor does he understand what the CIA does.  No I didn't work for them No I don't think I know anyone who does but I got a very good idea what they do To convince me, you need to provide something beyond an interesting story you thought up. What evidence exists to support this counter-intuitive black-op? I don't even see a motive. What is the CIA's interest in owning an exchange in Japan? |
|
|
|
|
The greatest lesson may be about fear, human nature and their role financial markets.
But since you can never be to secure..
It's Satoshi's lesson. Own your wealth.
Don't farm out your banking services, remember that was the problem with money in the first place. I say exchange your monies and withdraw to cold storage any large amount. If you keep a small amount at a site because you like their app for trading just keep the balance to a tolerable amount. I use the price of the phone as an upper limit.
|
|
|
|
Anyone trading on mysterious documents and rumors is a fool and will soon be parted from their money. Honestly people, a guy named "two-bit idiot" produces a leaked internal draft that looks like a 3rd. grader made it, and it makes the NY Times! There are so many things wrong with this. - Who was it written for? It seems to be an internal document, but speaks to an external audience.
- It does not appear to me (untrained) to be consistent with the known writing of Mark K., so who wrote it?
- Why is it denominated in a foreign currency?
- Why is there a page that looks like a balance sheet but is completely redacted? Why include it?
I could go on. Oh well, your fear is someone's gain.
|
|
|
|
I'm going to take a guess that the OP has not worked with the CIA nor has he ever known anyone in the CIA nor does he understand what the CIA does. |
|
|
|
...
Also, you can call it crazy that we take the Bible literally, and many other Christians think we are as well. But the problem with just picking and choosing which parts of the Bible we agree with or don't agree with is that we are undermining the Bible. We are in essence saying that it could all be "fairy tales." Which parts are then made up? Do we just pick what makes sense based on what scientists are speculating is true? If we don't like some of God's laws do we just ignore them? Where is that line? ...
Logic. I think sometimes unbelievers forget that people of faith are not acting illogically if you understand their premiss that God is magical. If you believe that God is a real and supernatural being then science means noting in discovering the truth of God. There are no laws of nature in religion because they can be changed at any point. Therefore pointing out the impossibility of a 6000 year old Earth cannot be argued. |
|
|
|
The rundown for this Sunday's show
[...]
..many news organizations continue to equate the skeptics with the scientists. This week NBC’s Meet the Press faced criticism for its debate between Bill Nye the Science Guy and Rep. Marsha Blackburn. ...
Bill Nye... the science guy.  The press still is confused about who is a scientist. Maybe he's a scientist compared to Marsha Blackburn, but any of my sixth grade students know more than her. Why can't they just get a serious scientist who is studying this? |
|
|
|
|
You mentioned you can't afford to live anymore. You should check the price on what it costs to die these days.
But seriously suicide is almost never a sensible answer. You are guaranteeing that you will never have another good day. Even in the worst of times you can expect that there is a chance of things turning around. If instead of having your money jacked it had gone to-da-moon, you would realize what little money can do compared with love, friendship, and the riches of the mind.
Hold those life coins!
|
|
|
|
It's very easy to kill bitcoin. Just take over all the exchanges and make them behave like MtGox.
Seriously, the exchanges are bitcoin's greatest weakness. They should be made bulletproof and trustworthy.
For MtGox's management, I think bulletproof might have a different meaning in the near future.
How would you take over the exchanges which are located in countries around the world? What if they wont sell you their business? What about the many new exchanges that would instantly replace the ones you acquired? And where are you going to get this inexhaustible pile of cash that will yield no return on your effort? The shareholders are not going to like this. |
|
|
|
Bitcoin was created by the US and Japanese governments. By slowly legitimizing it, they were hoping that it would be recognized worldwide. When it is, they were hoping to buy back all the gold and securities held by China and Russia. The Chinese caught on to it and so did the Russians. The reasons for their "bans".
CONFIRMED!!  Also involved in the project, the NSA, CIA, Illuminati, space aliens, Indians (both kinds), Nazis, Israel, the IRS, Bilderberg group, Daughters of the American revolution, the KKK, the AFLCIO, and me. Basically everyone but you. |
|
|
|
|
I wonder if Edison wrote in pearl, python or C++? Maybe old-school Bell C?
|
|
|
|
|
Mark/Gox is an exchange that uses bitcoin. They have no more control over the bitcoin you bought on Cryptsy than I do. Your good!
|
|
|
|
This is all ok.  I don't believe in any Gods but countless wonderful people do. People I could be friends with, people who share an ancient mystical idea that relies on faith in the supernatural rather than logic and science. That is true of most people on the planet. We should be able to choose as long as we stay out of each others kool-aid, right? As an atheist I'm not really looking for converts, so there was no need for me to use the " guy" earlier in the thread. I apologize if that offended anyone. I should just stick to the questions people wrote. Assuming these people want to know answers, that would be a better use of time for us all. |
|
|
|
aww come on revans, you can hope for more than that. also "Coinsmen" made me laugh. ...your fellow coinsmen ...
|
|
|
|
Thanks for a good response. I see where you are coming from, and I can also agree with your conclusion. Youngsters are always seeking out more dangerous stuff to do than elders. And it might be natures way of strengthening the gene pool? And while older people and senior climbers are more aware of their mortality, younger people usually don't reflect too much about that. Now, put in the light where you put it here, I understand you better. And I also agree security should always be number one, when leading any climbing group, doing a rescue operation or whatever involved with climbing. So, then there are no more arguments from me, and this turned into quite the peaceful bantering. Cheers. I knew it would all be cool because you were being so cool about stuff. Your right about risk being an inherent element of climbing. I mean if I don't want to fall off a cliff I should stay the F#@? away from them. Back then I defended the importance of taking risks and pointed out how safe organized climbing was, compared to autos for example. But if your new to climbing and want to try it out then please at least start by finding some experienced people. Climbers that impress can plan a belay that greatly mitigates the risk to the climbing party. Not a climber who can do some sick free dyno-mantel thing on the side of El Cap. Although you will see a lot more of that guy because of the drama and awesomeness of it all. Well cheers to you to sir, and may we all find that balance between gravity and position. |
|
|
|
Grrr. These guys give climbing a bad rep. I led mountaineering trips for 12 years. It is one of the safest sports when done correctly. But then some kid decides he does not need a rope and fall to his death. Conclusion? Climbing is dangerous.
I would never climb with those fools. And I assure you they have no cred among serious climbers.
Not to get in your face. So let me try to philosophize over this. You mention climbing is safe when done 'correctly'. I understand what you mean by that, by following best practices and being responsible, ensuring gear is top notch, and not take unnecessary risks. No matter how you twist or turn it, it won't be as safe as playing snooker, but I get where you're headed at. Considering you've done this for 12 years, you should have a lot of knowledge about the driving forces behind why people climb. For those who stick around for a long time, I can only imagine that the strongest driving forces are those of internal nature. But it might seem from your post that you're belittling Alex Honnold and his achievements. You call him 'some kid who decides he does not need a rope and falls to his death'. Did you watch the 60 minutes documentary about him, and how he got started? He started by climbing 3 hours six days a week, in a climbing facility, then he has proceeded from there, gaining a lot of experience, and constantly expanding his skills. While being high risk, what he does is also a huge testament to the human strength, and then I look at both physical and mental capabilities. Instead of talking down on him, why not draw inspiration from it? There are a very little percentage of climbers that do free climbing, because it's rather high-risk, and most people are not willing to take that risk. And chance is that most recreational climbers does not train as much as him. He live for this. If he were a fool, he would probably be dead already. Clearly he's not a fool. What appears for the bystander to be something incredibly dangerous, might not seem that dangerous to him. I've seen him go a route with rope first to prepare it for free climbing, chalking up where it's safe to go, and I'm pretty sure he doesn't climb if the weather forecast is not to his advantage, and I'm pretty sure he's very much prepare no matter where he goes. While any man or woman that takes on incredible feats, or high-risk sports could easily be brushed of as stupid silly risk takers with a death wish, the fact is that a lot of the people that do engage in such sports does not take unnecessary risks, but their perception of risk, is quite different from that of a normal person. If you look at America, a lot of people eat themselves to death, they come by McDonalds every day, and load up on sugar and fat. Those are risk takers, as what they will do might shorten their lifespan, and lead to an early death. And then you have smoking, alcohol and drugs. Lots of people do 'dangerous' things, but all of that's easy. What Honnold does is not easy, and it's quite clear that he does not do it for the fame, he does it because this is what he does. Look at the happiness in his eyes, there's no insanity in there. This is what he does. Claiming that he has no credit among serious climbers is a weird statement to give. Clearly what he does gives him some serious credit, or else he would not be known and be featured on 60 minutes and the like. Most skilled athletes concentrate on what they're doing themselves, and does not spend much of their time to criticize other athletes. Calling him a fool and claiming he has no cred among lifters seems to indicate jealousy. Sorry if I'm wrong on that part. I just do not understand how anyone criticizing him is not able to acknowledge the incredible things that he's actually doing. He climbs difficult mountain walls that even climbers with ropes have a big problem of doing. This is his lifestyle, and he does it 100%. I don't see him complaining about anyone else. He seems 100% focused on what he does. And if he dies young, makes a wrong move, so what, he dies, having lived a short life to the fullest extent possible. That's more than can be said about most people. I look at him with awe as a symbol of what human determination and will is capable of. If for nothing else, I think we should draw inspiration about this - something we could use in our daily lives, perhaps sometimes just going for what we want, instead of always 'being safe'. I'm pretty sure he's aware of the risks, and the consequences to any error he might make. But this is his life, this is what he chooses to do, no matter who criticizes him or what these people says. He's on an entirely different level than most climbers will ever be. I guess a lot of climbers have a hard time swallowing that fact. While I think his climbing is truly inspirational, I at the same time recognize the dangers, and I don't have any desire to attempt anything like it, nor do I have the desire or drive to climb as much as he does to develop a skill set like his, and even if I tried, starting at a young age, I would probably never be able to achieve what he has achieved. In conclusion, it's easy to talk shit - but please recognize that there's hundreds and thousands of hours of practice to be able to reach his level. While average people never having done anything athletic at all easily can spew uneducated shit talk towards his achievements and his lifestyle, I would most certainly expect something else from someone with a lot of experience from climbing. How about: "What he does is quite incredible, however my personal opinion is that this is quite risky, and I would never do it myself, or encourage anyone to do this kind of free climbing". Completely dismissing his achievements and calling him a fool, only reflects negatively on the sender of that message. You might not agree RodeoX , but I would think a man with 12 years of experience with climbing would be able to recognize his talent and achievements as something extraordinary, albeit risky. What a spectacular, reasoned and nuanced response! You have some very good points. I'll try to explain myself a bit. I have a bias against free climbing based on my life experience. When I fist began climbing the sport climbing culture had not yet happened. People involved in climbing mostly considered it an extension of trekking or rescue work, in the milieu of wilderness skills taught by Outward Bound NOLS. I left my job as a park ranger to start leading and organizing wilderness trips when I landed a rare full time/401k career in adventure education. You can imagine the type of mindset I would look for and the attitude toward safety I would expect. An ideal climber tied impeccable knots, never took their hand off belay, and never forgot to check the knots of others. They might come from firefighting or majored in recreation, but always safety was considered a tier 1 concern. And then climbing took off. Suddenly people were wearing North Face jackets at the mall? The public's fascination with climbing had a strong element of danger. Risk was re-evaluated and pushing the limits of safety became virtuous. I started to hear from people about this idea that the most esteemed climbing must be the true risk of free climbing. Man vs. gravity no holds barred. Even the applications I received for leaders to guide youth into the wilderness sometimes boasted of the applicants fearless and caviler rock skills. At the conferences I was attending, like this one ( http://www.nols.edu/wrmc/ ), it was easy to see the rise in free climbing accidents. I also saw it locally as an W-EMT and steep angle rescue instructor. Deceleration trauma is nasty stuff. Stuff you don't think about when your young and very capable. Until the day you blowout that flake you had a ringlock on and it all goes down. This is why free climbing is outside of most climbing circles and considered reckless. Having said that, I do believe people are free to make their own choices. Someone might be a fully knowledgeable climber who has done his/her homework and still decides it's worth the risk. But I don't want them belaying me. In my opinion nothing is gained and everything is risked in detaching from a belay system. It's not like the rope is cheating. A good belay escorts you up with a little slack, it's all you. The only thing different is the very real possibility of a fall to the ground vs. a fall to to your first holding anchor. I just think it's unwise. |
|
|
|
|
I think as the internet is getting walled up, this kind of project is going to get stronger.
|
|
|
|
Or fix the wallet.
Thanks Barek.
-B-
What needs fixing exactly? I don't think miners should have to process such a worthless transaction without a fee. What exactly is a worthless transaction? What if one day the lowest BTC unit is equal in value to $1? Then, we have a $%##% problem. The whole world will come to a stand-still because no transaction is going to get processed.. It will be changed if the price rises. But suppose I create 10,000 transactions a minute at that amount. I could tie up the network with unproductive transactions that cost the network. A sort of DoS attack. I think that's the reason. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
