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5901  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: December 16, 2013, 08:55:52 PM
This am when btc started pushing down through suppprt at 830ish I decided to move half my stake to USD.  Then bang it drops past my first target so fast I am stunned into inaction.  Was planning to buy back...  But now I am not sure.  News plus technicals bodes fairly darkly.

I wish I was a trader like you guys. What is gonna happen?
5902  Economy / Speculation / Re: Fast drop to 800 on: December 16, 2013, 08:45:39 PM
Never trust people who tell you what to do.

Never... But... Smiley
5903  Economy / Speculation / Re: Reason for Today's Crash: China Bans Bitcoin Payment Processors on: December 16, 2013, 08:22:47 PM
Assuming it's true* that you can withdraw but not deposit to BTCChina, then why would a rational individual withdraw?  Whenever you have a one-way financial valve like this, it makes the less-restrictive money (money in BTCChina) worth more. 

I can understand selling in the panic to buy back later, but Yuan in BTCChina--if the rumour is true--is now better than Yuan in a bank account. 

It could become a zero way valve in a matter of hours. Simply state that BTC withdraws are forbidden also. Raid on their servers. Take the remaining bitcoins. End of story.

Poisonous for CN government.  Not gonna happen.
5904  Economy / Speculation / Re: Reason for Today's Crash: China Bans Bitcoin Payment Processors on: December 16, 2013, 08:21:16 PM
i don't quite get it. how is an exchange supposed to happen if funds cannot flow in + out?

i feel we are missing some important information here. the previous releases did not sound like they want to ban exchanges..

I think your missing important information is China is essentially a communist capital state.  They never have had the freedoms most westerners are concerned about losing.  We complain about the fed.  Their economic power is tightly held by the government.

This is no surprise.

The surprise for the Chinese gvmt in the end will be the fact the you cannot stop bitcoin trade.

But for now?  Look out below.  BTC technicals have been bad for a while.  This news is gas on embers.

Chinese who didn't catch the news early wake up in a few hours, maybe another sell off.

Hmm.  Not maybe IMHO. ☺☺

But the real good news is this just helps what is a needed retraction in price to speed up.

The west has a chance to lead in financial freedom here.  But we need to see the us continue to back off from interfering with exchanges.

We need gentle regulation.  Asap.  And then see US exchanges gain steam.  I believe this is true for the EU as well.
5905  Economy / Speculation / Re: Reason for Today's Crash: China Bans Bitcoin Payment Processors on: December 16, 2013, 08:14:05 PM
i don't quite get it. how is an exchange supposed to happen if funds cannot flow in + out?

i feel we are missing some important information here. the previous releases did not sound like they want to ban exchanges..

I think your missing important information is China is essentially a communist capital state.  They never have had the freedoms most westerners are concerned about losing.  We complain about the fed.  Their economic power is tightly held by the government.

This is no surprise.

The surprise for the Chinese gvmt in the end will be the fact the you cannot stop bitcoin trade.

But for now?  Look out below.  BTC technicals have been bad for a while.  This news is gas on embers.
5906  Economy / Speculation / Re: It's over. Bitcoin is finished. on: December 15, 2013, 10:48:04 PM
I can't believe people dont know its OVER!
5907  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Dogecoin hits wikipedia on: December 14, 2013, 06:22:27 PM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dogecoin

Insane how fast this is blowing up

Such amaze.
5908  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: December 11, 2013, 02:04:31 PM

We are now, however at the very moment at a very precarious little cliff.  If this is a bull trap this is just about the perfect opportunity for the jaws to close...  Cross your fingers longs.  We will see in a few hours IMO.

I might just change my name to Masterlock.


Let's see if it builds a base after this profit taking is over.  Doesn't look crashy to me.
5909  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: December 11, 2013, 09:06:19 AM
Masterluc, please weigh in on this surprisingly resilient price action but with low volume.  We need some guidance!
The volume is currently 75 at Btcchina and 20 at MtGox and Bitstamp - this is not a low volume.

Nope.  The rise continued at a good volume over the last day.

We are now, however at the very moment at a very precarious little cliff.  If this is a bull trap this is just about the perfect opportunity for the jaws to close...  Cross your fingers longs.  We will see in a few hours IMO.
5910  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why didn't you sell? on: December 11, 2013, 08:56:52 AM
Being upset that 1k will buy you only 1 bitcoin reveals at least two large misunderstandings on your part.

First of all is the psychological aspect of buying an expensive unit of investment.  You think its so expensive to buy one unit that its too late to get in.  I remember think something similar about Berkshire Hathaway in the 90s when it was about 8000$ a share if I remember right.

https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:BRK.A&sa=X&ei=CSOoUoPMJoPj2AWf8YGAAg&ved=0CC0Q2AEwAA

Secondly you misunderstand a fundamental advantage of Bitcoin.  Buffet may never have wanted to split BRK.A, but bitcoin has splits built in.  *IF* we sustain levels between $500 and $1000 then we will continue to the the Mbit (millibit) become the favoured denomination of btc.its already happening.  "One bitcoin" is a somewhat artificial construct.  As is 1000 mBTCs.

One last thing. I am capable of spelling out in a semi intelligent way the reasoning behind my thought processes with BTC.  But you have to understand it has not seemed worth it to me.  

I will explain why.

You started this thread with an overbearing tone.  You sounded judgemental and arrogant.  You came off as a know it all. Called some dumb, stupid, or insane.  And constantly waved around a 'degree in finance from a respected school'.  Your tone has changed somewhat.. But you still obviously have judged most here in a negative light.

To be honest this is one of several ignorant positions on display from you in this thread.

You would be better off assuming there are some here who know more than you.  I can guarantee you you have spoken to successful professional traders and folks who are highly educated.

As has been mentioned you essentially suggest we should time the market, and you were sure btc would go down at a specific time.  You may have been right about that.  But your insistence on this display of hindsight is an old pattern most of us here recognize.  Its a noob investor mistake.

Another one...  Feeling like its too late to get in btc for the price.  "Not interesting to have only 1 coin to trade". Noob error.

I just don't buy that'd its too hard to buy btc in Lebanon.  If you can use the net you can find a way.

You have a donation address and ad in your SIG.  You obviously want btc.

Youre upset some of us have not taken the time to make good arguments.  Why should we?  You came in here guns blazing.  And seem ignorant to some simple concepts. (Hindsight is 20\20 and timing the market is folly for all but the best)

Its like trying to explain to a blind man that I am not a fool to believe in color.


5911  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why didn't you sell? on: December 10, 2013, 09:18:49 PM
At this time I have a question for our trusty OP.

Why didn't you buy?
5912  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [FTC] Free FeatherCoin Giveaway for Everyone! Over 500 coins left to give away! on: December 10, 2013, 01:35:08 AM
I'm in!

6wvN86rNN7u13LpFsDBBQeZjgxdxopxwjA
5913  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why didn't you sell? on: December 09, 2013, 11:42:27 PM

Unfortunately it will likely be deemed 'dumb'. :-)
5914  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why didn't you sell? on: December 09, 2013, 05:42:15 PM
Meh. You know (cause I told you already Cheesy), your posts get a lot of respect from me, sgbett. This one is no different, 95% insightful, but a sweeping line like "TA is apophenia" is just, no offense, dumb. Might as well claim particle physics is like predicting lottery numbers -- just because the process is stochastic doesn't mean there are no patterns.

sorry for my sweeping and somewhat misleading statement - you are right the truth is more complicated I agree - but I had to keep it simple for this very special case.

what I should have said is 99% of traders are 100% lucky. 1% of traders are only 49% lucky - they are 'the house' so to speak.

This is interesting as it sheds light on some of the nuances the OP doesn't really see.

Well..  There were several different types of wagers described in your post. A few of them were completely negative expected value bets. For example the old lady at the slot machine. That bet is expected to lose over the long term. You also mentioned poker, horse racing, and of course timing the market. These three all have a -EV for most and a +EV for a few. You can win money at poker.

In fact it is how I built my bitcoin stake slowly over the last 2 years. I am NOT A extraordinary poker player by any means except I am able to combine bankroll management with some skill at low stakes to win over the long term.

Similarly market traders can do this successfully if they are knowledgeable disciplined and lucky. I imagine trading Bitcoin is like skiing Mount Everest. There are many opportunities hiding in this arena for those who are skilled. But more than half the game is knowing when not to play. This is true for poker as well as trading Bitcoin. And just like poker the vast majority of traders would be unsuccessful and in a market like this one get their asses handed to them. So congratulations to all of us dumb buy and hold idiots to use Jays words. Congratulations to us for knowing to stay out of the game.

One thing you learn to do after a million poker hands or so, is spot a fish.

OP is a fish.  I'd welcome him at my table any time.
5915  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: The Great Bitfie Giveaway: 1 lucky winner WILL win entire wallet. Seeded w/$100. on: December 09, 2013, 05:20:06 PM
PS.  I kinda hope someone figures out how to do a Bo Diddlie. 
5916  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: The Great Bitfie Giveaway: 1 lucky winner WILL win entire wallet. Seeded w/$100. on: December 09, 2013, 05:17:19 PM
Well, a paradiddle is RLRR.  Or LRLL. With drumsticks.  If you do them in sucsession you alternate.  But the basic pattern is Right, left, right, right,  or...  On, off, on, on.

Or represented binarily 1011.   Which is how many satoshi(s?) I sent.  :-)

Now had a sent a payment the represented two hands it would have been

10110100 or 01001011 satoshis, either of which would be more of a 'toomuchie' than a paradiddlie. :-)
5917  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: December 09, 2013, 06:27:49 AM
Looks like bitcoin continues to not give a shit about pennants

I'll be right there with you if BTC can do this with any volume...  that's what I am waiting to see.
5918  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bought in at 1130 on: December 09, 2013, 05:22:49 AM
It's so cute how you guys have to console each other, it brings a tear to my eye.  Cry

Huh

5919  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why didn't you sell? on: December 08, 2013, 05:21:07 PM

Having said that, I try to give my own POV regarding Bitcoin matters since I'm interested in the topic itself, and try to gather some counter-arguments to mine.

Your argument is suggesting via hindsight people should have tried to catch a falling knife.

It really is it's own counter argument. :-)
5920  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: The Great Bitfie Giveaway: 1 lucky winner WILL win entire wallet. Seeded w/$100. on: December 08, 2013, 05:02:11 PM
Bitfie !

I am a "paradiddlie".

https://blockchain.info/tx/631d04086916f783f757a313b553fe2b803884d2e9a00f74f0b516a2157e9b0d

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/paradiddle

Thanks for the fun!
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