Why didn't you sell?

[Rampion]

JayB, please let us know: should we sell now? Yes or not? If yes - where should we place our bids?

Answer that and prove you can consistently beat the market or you are just a troll.

[JayB]

JayB, please let us know: should we sell now? Yes or not? If yes - where should we place our bids?

Answer that and prove you can consistently beat the market or you are just a troll.

You too, don't get my point. I never said I am an investment guru that never loses money.

Spotting an opportunity doesn't mean I can give you a failure proof advice for the rest of your life. This could've been a one time opportunity, but it was clear to me then that it was an opportunity to be taken advantage of.

All the factors were pointing out that money could be made when it happened, and I'm glad some users too advantage of it.

[sgbett]

quick poll. hands up those people who lost BTC recently by holding?


...@....

SO you're telling me if you hold your Bitcoins you never lose. Maybe true, but I never said this wasn't true.

This would've also been true if you bought the S&P 500 stocks in 1950 and held it till today (you would've actually made many times your money back). Does that mean this is the best strategy you could've made? Does that mean you made the most returns in the world?

I'm just saying you can gain EVEN MORE by just using your common sense to take advantage of volatility (opportunities).

I'm sorry you are so dumb you can't even give good arguments. I'm not answering your crap anymore.

If you don't understand something does that make it dumb?

You got tantalisingly close to grasping it but couldn't quite make the mental leap. The corollary to the question I asked is 'hands up those people who lost BTC trading?'. Of course you probably don't understand why that is important so I will explain.

The reason I didn't ask that question, is because everyone will tell you about the trade they won, not many people will tell you about the losses. That goes for this board, for wall st traders, for poker players, the guy in the bookies betting on the nags, the old lady on the slots in vegas and every other risk/reward scenario in the world. Its an innate feature of human psychology regarding loss aversion. Gamble for enjoyment by all means, but never kid yourself you will win (in the long term) unless you are the house.

See you keep making all these posts about how smart you are, and then also making all these posts that demonstrate you are as thick as two short planks, and need everything explaining to you in terms a 12 year old will understand.

You aren't interested in understanding any viewpoint other than your own. You keep reframing your argument in ways to prove how right *you* are and how everyone else is wrong. Your posts reek of insecurity and a need to prove how smart *you* are. You aren't even interested in arguing the matter at hand, just your personal standing.

I don't care if I am wrong about which way BTC is headed, I just execute trades based on rationality, sane risk/reward, and preservation of capital. I don't care how smart or great people think I am, it doesn't really matter in the end. If I say some dumb ass shit, I expect to get pulled on it, and I'll think about what I said and come back stronger.

Here is an example. I used to think I could trade, then I found out I couldn't then I found out that nobody could. TA is apophenia, a chart can be found to retrospectively justify any trade. Statistics quite handily demonstrate why there are trading legends. The people that 'can' trade are lucky. Sometimes a heads comes up 100 times in a row. At any second you could lose it all.

Whereas you by your own admission, have no skin in the game, but need to come on a forum and tell people what they should be doing, even though you don't even understand the basic concept of risk/reward. Have a deluded idea that you can somehow predict that $1200 was the sell point even though it could have been anywhere from $80. Don't seem to grasp, despite having had it explained to you countless times over, that if the trade goes wrong you can incur significant losses.

Markets are primed to screw traders. The bitcoin market is primed to utterly destroy you. If you knew the first thing about the concept of anti-fragility, or hedging against black swan events then you would shrink into a corner embarrassed at how naive your view of things is. I apologised before because I thought maybe I was being too harsh. Your flippant response to that demonstrates material immaturity and an abhorrent personality flaw that is really going to screw you up in life at some point. I realise now I wasn't being too harsh but too kind. You are a child that needs grow the f' up.

Sure you might catch a few good 'trades' on the way. When it all comes crashing down and you are crying in the ashes of your own ruin maybe then you will feel the humility necessary to count yourself as 'human'.

Please do stick to your word and don't even bother trying to respond. You'll just embarrass yourself even further.

[oda.krell]

Meh. You know (cause I told you already :D), your posts get a lot of respect from me, sgbett. This one is no different, 95% insightful, but a sweeping line like "TA is apophenia" is just, no offense, dumb. Might as well claim particle physics is like predicting lottery numbers -- just because the process is stochastic doesn't mean there are no patterns.

[JayB]

quick poll. hands up those people who lost BTC recently by holding?


...@....

SO you're telling me if you hold your Bitcoins you never lose. Maybe true, but I never said this wasn't true.

This would've also been true if you bought the S&P 500 stocks in 1950 and held it till today (you would've actually made many times your money back). Does that mean this is the best strategy you could've made? Does that mean you made the most returns in the world?

I'm just saying you can gain EVEN MORE by just using your common sense to take advantage of volatility (opportunities).

I'm sorry you are so dumb you can't even give good arguments. I'm not answering your crap anymore.

If you don't understand something does that make it dumb?

You got tantalisingly close to grasping it but couldn't quite make the mental leap. The corollary to the question I asked is 'hands up those people who lost BTC trading?'. Of course you probably don't understand why that is important so I will explain.

The reason I didn't ask that question, is because everyone will tell you about the trade they won, not many people will tell you about the losses. That goes for this board, for wall st traders, for poker players, the guy in the bookies betting on the nags, the old lady on the slots in vegas and every other risk/reward scenario in the world. Its an innate feature of human psychology regarding loss aversion. Gamble for enjoyment by all means, but never kid yourself you will win (in the long term) unless you are the house.

See you keep making all these posts about how smart you are, and then also making all these posts that demonstrate you are as thick as two short planks, and need everything explaining to you in terms a 12 year old will understand.

You aren't interested in understanding any viewpoint other than your own. You keep reframing your argument in ways to prove how right *you* are and how everyone else is wrong. Your posts reek of insecurity and a need to prove how smart *you* are. You aren't even interested in arguing the matter at hand, just your personal standing.

I don't care if I am wrong about which way BTC is headed, I just execute trades based on rationality, sane risk/reward, and preservation of capital. I don't care how smart or great people think I am, it doesn't really matter in the end. If I say some dumb ass shit, I expect to get pulled on it, and I'll think about what I said and come back stronger.

Here is an example. I used to think I could trade, then I found out I couldn't then I found out that nobody could. TA is apophenia, a chart can be found to retrospectively justify any trade. Statistics quite handily demonstrate why there are trading legends. The people that 'can' trade are lucky. Sometimes a heads comes up 100 times in a row. At any second you could lose it all.

Whereas you by your own admission, have no skin in the game, but need to come on a forum and tell people what they should be doing, even though you don't even understand the basic concept of risk/reward. Have a deluded idea that you can somehow predict that $1200 was the sell point even though it could have been anywhere from $80. Don't seem to grasp, despite having had it explained to you countless times over, that if the trade goes wrong you can incur significant losses.

Markets are primed to screw traders. The bitcoin market is primed to utterly destroy you. If you knew the first thing about the concept of anti-fragility, or hedging against black swan events then you would shrink into a corner embarrassed at how naive your view of things is. I apologised before because I thought maybe I was being too harsh. Your flippant response to that demonstrates material immaturity and an abhorrent personality flaw that is really going to screw you up in life at some point. I realise now I wasn't being too harsh but too kind. You are a child that needs grow the f' up.

Sure you might catch a few good 'trades' on the way. When it all comes crashing down and you are crying in the ashes of your own ruin maybe then you will feel the humility necessary to count yourself as 'human'.

Please do stick to your word and don't even bother trying to respond. You'll just embarrass yourself even further.

I can't stop laughing.

I've read Nassim Taleb's books as well. Not only that but I've been following him on Facebook for the past 4 years or so. You're not saying anything new to me.

Not only that but I have a degree in finance from a very reputable school. Not only that, but I have actually come up with my own model of pricing non-dividents paying European options that my professor couldn't find a flaw in. You want me to continue?

I'm not trying to brag about anything, I just want to make a point once and for all that I know the "Finance" and trading topic very very well. It seems it's you who doesn't want to have an open minded view about what I'm trying to say.

What you fail to see is that all the things you've been reading on Black Swans and "randomness" sure exist, but u fail to see how unrelated my original post is to those events. IF ANYTHING, holding your investment for an extended period of time would have a much higher probability for you to experience those events and lose a big share of your investment.

Mature markets behave in a certain way, and new ones in quiet a different way. I don't think you fully grasped the content of the last couple of books you've read. And for your info Nassim Taleb was a big speculator himself, he was betting that the market will crash for the most part of his life (the fat tails of a normal distribution) and made it in 2008.

If you want to talk more about that I'll be happy to do it in person, check your inbox for my Skype ID. But I think things have gone way to far here....
 

[e521]

I'm just saying you can gain EVEN MORE by just using your common sense to take advantage of volatility (opportunities).

There is always a chance your "common sense" will turn as a disadvantage one of these days, don't you think?
Why don't you create a thread and show us your long/short and we see, it's so easy to predict what just happened 10 minutes ago.

My common sense says that we are about to crash for a few weeks now, not because of this I sold any of my coins

[JayB]

I should've opened a topic saying "You guys are awesome, for all those holding up to your Bitcoins, keep up the good work", and I would've got praised like a God. You just want me to feed your ego so that "I make sense"?

I've seen the dumbest of topics in this forum applauding Bitcoin holders get the most praise in the world. If you guys can't grasp a topic in an open minded way I rest my case.

[BitchicksHusband]

quick poll. hands up those people who lost BTC recently by holding?


...@....

SO you're telling me if you hold your Bitcoins you never lose. Maybe true, but I never said this wasn't true.

This would've also been true if you bought the S&P 500 stocks in 1950 and held it till today (you would've actually made many times your money back). Does that mean this is the best strategy you could've made? Does that mean you made the most returns in the world?

I'm just saying you can gain EVEN MORE by just using your common sense to take advantage of volatility (opportunities).

I'm sorry you are so dumb you can't even give good arguments. I'm not answering your crap anymore.

If you don't understand something does that make it dumb?

You got tantalisingly close to grasping it but couldn't quite make the mental leap. The corollary to the question I asked is 'hands up those people who lost BTC trading?'. Of course you probably don't understand why that is important so I will explain.

The reason I didn't ask that question, is because everyone will tell you about the trade they won, not many people will tell you about the losses. That goes for this board, for wall st traders, for poker players, the guy in the bookies betting on the nags, the old lady on the slots in vegas and every other risk/reward scenario in the world. Its an innate feature of human psychology regarding loss aversion. Gamble for enjoyment by all means, but never kid yourself you will win (in the long term) unless you are the house.

See you keep making all these posts about how smart you are, and then also making all these posts that demonstrate you are as thick as two short planks, and need everything explaining to you in terms a 12 year old will understand.

You aren't interested in understanding any viewpoint other than your own. You keep reframing your argument in ways to prove how right *you* are and how everyone else is wrong. Your posts reek of insecurity and a need to prove how smart *you* are. You aren't even interested in arguing the matter at hand, just your personal standing.

I don't care if I am wrong about which way BTC is headed, I just execute trades based on rationality, sane risk/reward, and preservation of capital. I don't care how smart or great people think I am, it doesn't really matter in the end. If I say some dumb ass shit, I expect to get pulled on it, and I'll think about what I said and come back stronger.

Here is an example. I used to think I could trade, then I found out I couldn't then I found out that nobody could. TA is apophenia, a chart can be found to retrospectively justify any trade. Statistics quite handily demonstrate why there are trading legends. The people that 'can' trade are lucky. Sometimes a heads comes up 100 times in a row. At any second you could lose it all.

Whereas you by your own admission, have no skin in the game, but need to come on a forum and tell people what they should be doing, even though you don't even understand the basic concept of risk/reward. Have a deluded idea that you can somehow predict that $1200 was the sell point even though it could have been anywhere from $80. Don't seem to grasp, despite having had it explained to you countless times over, that if the trade goes wrong you can incur significant losses.

Markets are primed to screw traders. The bitcoin market is primed to utterly destroy you. If you knew the first thing about the concept of anti-fragility, or hedging against black swan events then you would shrink into a corner embarrassed at how naive your view of things is. I apologised before because I thought maybe I was being too harsh. Your flippant response to that demonstrates material immaturity and an abhorrent personality flaw that is really going to screw you up in life at some point. I realise now I wasn't being too harsh but too kind. You are a child that needs grow the f' up.

Sure you might catch a few good 'trades' on the way. When it all comes crashing down and you are crying in the ashes of your own ruin maybe then you will feel the humility necessary to count yourself as 'human'.

Please do stick to your word and don't even bother trying to respond. You'll just embarrass yourself even further.

I can't stop laughing.

I've read Nassim Taleb's books as well. Not only that but I've been following him on Facebook for the past 4 years or so. You're not saying anything new to me.

Not only that but I have a degree in finance from a very reputable school. Not only that, but I have actually come up with my own model of pricing non-dividents paying European options that my professor couldn't find a flaw in. You want me to continue?

I'm not trying to brag about anything, I just want to make a point once and for all that I know the "Finance" and trading topic very very well. It seems it's you who doesn't want to have an open minded view about what I'm trying to say.

What you fail to see is that all the things you've been reading on Black Swans and "randomness" sure exist, but u fail to see how unrelated my original post is to those events. IF ANYTHING, holding your investment for an extended period of time would have a much higher probability for you to experience those events and lose a big share of your investment.

Mature markets behave in a certain way, and new ones in quiet a different way. I don't think you fully grasped the content of the last couple of books you've read. And for your info Nassim Taleb was a big speculator himself, he was betting that the market will crash for the most part of his life (the fat tails of a normal distribution) and made it in 2008.

If you want to talk more about that I'll be happy to do it in person, check your inbox for my Skype ID. But I think things have gone way to far here....
 

How about this?

Buy 1 bitcoin right now.  When you have 10, then let us know how you did it.

[BitchicksHusband]

I should've opened a topic saying "You guys are awesome, for all those holding up to your Bitcoins, keep up the good work", and I would've got praised like a God. You just want me to feed your ego so that "I make sense"?

I've seen the dumbest of topics in this forum applauding Bitcoin holders get the most praise in the world. If you guys can't grasp a topic in an open minded way I rest my case.

Because those of us who have been around a long time realize that all our crazy activity ended up doing worse than just buying and holding.  So now we just buy and hold.  It's really easy to come on here and say stuff while never having tried it yourself.  Talk is cheap.

[sgbett]

quick poll. hands up those people who lost BTC recently by holding?


...@....

SO you're telling me if you hold your Bitcoins you never lose. Maybe true, but I never said this wasn't true.

This would've also been true if you bought the S&P 500 stocks in 1950 and held it till today (you would've actually made many times your money back). Does that mean this is the best strategy you could've made? Does that mean you made the most returns in the world?

I'm just saying you can gain EVEN MORE by just using your common sense to take advantage of volatility (opportunities).

I'm sorry you are so dumb you can't even give good arguments. I'm not answering your crap anymore.

If you don't understand something does that make it dumb?

You got tantalisingly close to grasping it but couldn't quite make the mental leap. The corollary to the question I asked is 'hands up those people who lost BTC trading?'. Of course you probably don't understand why that is important so I will explain.

The reason I didn't ask that question, is because everyone will tell you about the trade they won, not many people will tell you about the losses. That goes for this board, for wall st traders, for poker players, the guy in the bookies betting on the nags, the old lady on the slots in vegas and every other risk/reward scenario in the world. Its an innate feature of human psychology regarding loss aversion. Gamble for enjoyment by all means, but never kid yourself you will win (in the long term) unless you are the house.

See you keep making all these posts about how smart you are, and then also making all these posts that demonstrate you are as thick as two short planks, and need everything explaining to you in terms a 12 year old will understand.

You aren't interested in understanding any viewpoint other than your own. You keep reframing your argument in ways to prove how right *you* are and how everyone else is wrong. Your posts reek of insecurity and a need to prove how smart *you* are. You aren't even interested in arguing the matter at hand, just your personal standing.

I don't care if I am wrong about which way BTC is headed, I just execute trades based on rationality, sane risk/reward, and preservation of capital. I don't care how smart or great people think I am, it doesn't really matter in the end. If I say some dumb ass shit, I expect to get pulled on it, and I'll think about what I said and come back stronger.

Here is an example. I used to think I could trade, then I found out I couldn't then I found out that nobody could. TA is apophenia, a chart can be found to retrospectively justify any trade. Statistics quite handily demonstrate why there are trading legends. The people that 'can' trade are lucky. Sometimes a heads comes up 100 times in a row. At any second you could lose it all.

Whereas you by your own admission, have no skin in the game, but need to come on a forum and tell people what they should be doing, even though you don't even understand the basic concept of risk/reward. Have a deluded idea that you can somehow predict that $1200 was the sell point even though it could have been anywhere from $80. Don't seem to grasp, despite having had it explained to you countless times over, that if the trade goes wrong you can incur significant losses.

Markets are primed to screw traders. The bitcoin market is primed to utterly destroy you. If you knew the first thing about the concept of anti-fragility, or hedging against black swan events then you would shrink into a corner embarrassed at how naive your view of things is. I apologised before because I thought maybe I was being too harsh. Your flippant response to that demonstrates material immaturity and an abhorrent personality flaw that is really going to screw you up in life at some point. I realise now I wasn't being too harsh but too kind. You are a child that needs grow the f' up.

Sure you might catch a few good 'trades' on the way. When it all comes crashing down and you are crying in the ashes of your own ruin maybe then you will feel the humility necessary to count yourself as 'human'.

Please do stick to your word and don't even bother trying to respond. You'll just embarrass yourself even further.

I can't stop laughing.

I've read Nassim Taleb's books as well. Not only that but I've been following him on Facebook for the past 4 years or so. You're not saying anything new to me.

Not only that but I have a degree in finance from a very reputable school. Not only that, but I have actually come up with my own model of pricing non-dividents paying European options that my professor couldn't find a flaw in. You want me to continue?

I'm not trying to brag about anything, I just want to make a point once and for all that I know the "Finance" and trading topic very very well. It seems it's you who doesn't want to have an open minded view about what I'm trying to say.

What you fail to see is that all the things you've been reading on Black Swans and "randomness" sure exist, but u fail to see how unrelated my original post is to those events. IF ANYTHING, holding your investment for an extended period of time would have a much higher probability for you to experience those events and lose a big share of your investment.

Mature markets behave in a certain way, and new ones in quiet a different way. I don't think you fully grasped the content of the last couple of books you've read. And for your info Nassim Taleb was a big speculator himself, he was betting that the market will crash for the most part of his life (the fat tails of a normal distribution) and made it in 2008.

If you want to talk more about that I'll be happy to do it in person, check your inbox for my Skype ID. But I think things have gone way to far here....
 

Do not risk it all to gain little. Risk little to gain lots. He made his money with options designed to pay off big when unpredictable stuff happened, which it inevitably did, not by trying to time the market. Are you sure your read his books.

Do you understand that whilst you are trying to capture small gains by trading in and out there is a chance that the market will suddenly and very unpredictably move massively against you.

When you read stuff you are supposed to understand it for what it says, not just make it fit your pre-conceived view.

[sgbett]

Meh. You know (cause I told you already ), your posts get a lot of respect from me, sgbett. This one is no different, 95% insightful, but a sweeping line like "TA is apophenia" is just, no offense, dumb. Might as well claim particle physics is like predicting lottery numbers -- just because the process is stochastic doesn't mean there are no patterns.

sorry for my sweeping and somewhat misleading statement - you are right the truth is more complicated I agree - but I had to keep it simple for this very special case.

what I should have said is 99% of traders are 100% lucky. 1% of traders are only 49% lucky - they are 'the house' so to speak.

[JayB]

quick poll. hands up those people who lost BTC recently by holding?


...@....

SO you're telling me if you hold your Bitcoins you never lose. Maybe true, but I never said this wasn't true.

This would've also been true if you bought the S&P 500 stocks in 1950 and held it till today (you would've actually made many times your money back). Does that mean this is the best strategy you could've made? Does that mean you made the most returns in the world?

I'm just saying you can gain EVEN MORE by just using your common sense to take advantage of volatility (opportunities).

I'm sorry you are so dumb you can't even give good arguments. I'm not answering your crap anymore.

If you don't understand something does that make it dumb?

You got tantalisingly close to grasping it but couldn't quite make the mental leap. The corollary to the question I asked is 'hands up those people who lost BTC trading?'. Of course you probably don't understand why that is important so I will explain.

The reason I didn't ask that question, is because everyone will tell you about the trade they won, not many people will tell you about the losses. That goes for this board, for wall st traders, for poker players, the guy in the bookies betting on the nags, the old lady on the slots in vegas and every other risk/reward scenario in the world. Its an innate feature of human psychology regarding loss aversion. Gamble for enjoyment by all means, but never kid yourself you will win (in the long term) unless you are the house.

See you keep making all these posts about how smart you are, and then also making all these posts that demonstrate you are as thick as two short planks, and need everything explaining to you in terms a 12 year old will understand.

You aren't interested in understanding any viewpoint other than your own. You keep reframing your argument in ways to prove how right *you* are and how everyone else is wrong. Your posts reek of insecurity and a need to prove how smart *you* are. You aren't even interested in arguing the matter at hand, just your personal standing.

I don't care if I am wrong about which way BTC is headed, I just execute trades based on rationality, sane risk/reward, and preservation of capital. I don't care how smart or great people think I am, it doesn't really matter in the end. If I say some dumb ass shit, I expect to get pulled on it, and I'll think about what I said and come back stronger.

Here is an example. I used to think I could trade, then I found out I couldn't then I found out that nobody could. TA is apophenia, a chart can be found to retrospectively justify any trade. Statistics quite handily demonstrate why there are trading legends. The people that 'can' trade are lucky. Sometimes a heads comes up 100 times in a row. At any second you could lose it all.

Whereas you by your own admission, have no skin in the game, but need to come on a forum and tell people what they should be doing, even though you don't even understand the basic concept of risk/reward. Have a deluded idea that you can somehow predict that $1200 was the sell point even though it could have been anywhere from $80. Don't seem to grasp, despite having had it explained to you countless times over, that if the trade goes wrong you can incur significant losses.

Markets are primed to screw traders. The bitcoin market is primed to utterly destroy you. If you knew the first thing about the concept of anti-fragility, or hedging against black swan events then you would shrink into a corner embarrassed at how naive your view of things is. I apologised before because I thought maybe I was being too harsh. Your flippant response to that demonstrates material immaturity and an abhorrent personality flaw that is really going to screw you up in life at some point. I realise now I wasn't being too harsh but too kind. You are a child that needs grow the f' up.

Sure you might catch a few good 'trades' on the way. When it all comes crashing down and you are crying in the ashes of your own ruin maybe then you will feel the humility necessary to count yourself as 'human'.

Please do stick to your word and don't even bother trying to respond. You'll just embarrass yourself even further.

I can't stop laughing.

I've read Nassim Taleb's books as well. Not only that but I've been following him on Facebook for the past 4 years or so. You're not saying anything new to me.

Not only that but I have a degree in finance from a very reputable school. Not only that, but I have actually come up with my own model of pricing non-dividents paying European options that my professor couldn't find a flaw in. You want me to continue?

I'm not trying to brag about anything, I just want to make a point once and for all that I know the "Finance" and trading topic very very well. It seems it's you who doesn't want to have an open minded view about what I'm trying to say.

What you fail to see is that all the things you've been reading on Black Swans and "randomness" sure exist, but u fail to see how unrelated my original post is to those events. IF ANYTHING, holding your investment for an extended period of time would have a much higher probability for you to experience those events and lose a big share of your investment.

Mature markets behave in a certain way, and new ones in quiet a different way. I don't think you fully grasped the content of the last couple of books you've read. And for your info Nassim Taleb was a big speculator himself, he was betting that the market will crash for the most part of his life (the fat tails of a normal distribution) and made it in 2008.

If you want to talk more about that I'll be happy to do it in person, check your inbox for my Skype ID. But I think things have gone way to far here....
 

Do not risk it all to gain little. Risk little to gain lots. He made his money with options designed to pay off big when unpredictable stuff happened, which it inevitably did, not by trying to time the market. Are you sure your read his books.

Do you understand that whilst you are trying to capture small gains by trading in and out there is a chance that the market will suddenly and very unpredictably move massively against you.

When you read stuff you are supposed to understand it for what it says, not just make it fit your pre-conceived view.

I knw that very well

But what Nassim labeled as "Randomness" wasn't actually absolute randomness. Randomness doesn't exist in this world. There are scientists who would argue it does exist on a sub-atomic level, but in our physical world it doesn't.

What Nassim labeled as randomness is merely the inability of human brain capacity to predict certain complex events.

For me the move that happened after the Chinese government's announcement wasn't a complex event that couldn't be predicted, but merely an action-reaction phenomena. You can argue that this could be the case 99% of the time and then there's 1% chance a black swan would occur and the market would move in a way that is different to what I predicted. Fair enough, but I'm willing to take this chance myself. And I believe if you take this chance in a new and volatile market like that of Bitcoin, even if you are proven wrong in rare circumstances you'd still make a decent return (may not be true for mature markets as I said).

Are we on the same page now?

[Keyser Soze]

I should've opened a topic saying "You guys are awesome, for all those holding up to your Bitcoins, keep up the good work", and I would've got praised like a God. You just want me to feed your ego so that "I make sense"?

I've seen the dumbest of topics in this forum applauding Bitcoin holders get the most praise in the world. If you guys can't grasp a topic in an open minded way I rest my case.

You are getting these types of responses because it appears you are trolling us.

Your "sell at 1200, buy at 700" is very easy in hindsight, but how do you know exactly how the market would react to the China news? The price could have easily gone down to only 1000, then back to 1200. How do you know where to place your bids? If you miss your bids, when do you buy back in? What if the market were to jump back very quickly above your original selling point, before you realized your original bids were not going to be hit?

To answer your topic question, I did not sell because I do not actively trade, I am not interested in short term movements. I know I cannot be accurate (enough) with short term speculation, I'd rather not risk my coins in this way.

[bassclef]

Traders like oda.krell have years of market experience and are much better equipped to time these price swings than the average bear. I'd listen to his advice way before Captain Hindsight here.

Put your money where your mouth is, JayB. Will the price break $1000 in the next 48 hours or is this a dead cat bounce? Let's see this mind in action.

[JayB]

Arguing with you two clowns (cscape & bassclef) is like debating with my cat.

Unless you have something intelligent to say please spare us your nonsense.

I've been debating on an intellectual level with some of the users here, and you two come and spoil the party.

[Keyser Soze]

Arguing with you two clowns (cscape & bassclef) is like debating with my cat.

Unless you have something intelligent to say please spare us your nonsense.

I've been debating on an intellectual level with some of the users here, and you two come and spoil the party.

Oh please, I asked some very basic questions. We can agree the China news was negative, but how do you know exactly what the price will do?

Edit: Didn't see you changed your post and removed my name.

[JayB]

Arguing with you two clowns (cscape & bassclef) is like debating with my cat.

Unless you have something intelligent to say please spare us your nonsense.

I've been debating on an intellectual level with some of the users here, and you two come and spoil the party.

Oh please, I asked some very basic questions. We can agree the China news was negative, but how do you know exactly what the price will do?

I'm sorry I included your nickname at first by mistake, I corrected it afterwards.

You can't predict with 100% certainty. But with a high enough level of certainty (above 90% or so I'd say) you make a gain in the long term. The reason why this works in a new and volatile market (and not necessarily in a mature market) is because the moves are so big (40 - 50%) that the gains you make by having a high enough certainty would offset the losses you make by missing it few times and incurring transaction costs.  

Edit: The reason why I know the Bitcoin market will move so drastically is simply because for the past 4 years it did so. It is true for nearly all new markets. I don't see why it would've been different this time (although it could've acted differently this time, but odds were saying otherwise). I was merely playing on odds. Off-course it's risky I never said it wasn't. But my argument is the odds were in my strategy's favor so why not take the chance. Life is about taking risks, and it's all about benefiting when the odds are in your favor. That's all I'm saying. 

[cAPSLOCK]

Meh. You know (cause I told you already ), your posts get a lot of respect from me, sgbett. This one is no different, 95% insightful, but a sweeping line like "TA is apophenia" is just, no offense, dumb. Might as well claim particle physics is like predicting lottery numbers -- just because the process is stochastic doesn't mean there are no patterns.

sorry for my sweeping and somewhat misleading statement - you are right the truth is more complicated I agree - but I had to keep it simple for this very special case.

what I should have said is 99% of traders are 100% lucky. 1% of traders are only 49% lucky - they are 'the house' so to speak.

This is interesting as it sheds light on some of the nuances the OP doesn't really see.

Well..  There were several different types of wagers described in your post. A few of them were completely negative expected value bets. For example the old lady at the slot machine. That bet is expected to lose over the long term. You also mentioned poker, horse racing, and of course timing the market. These three all have a -EV for most and a +EV for a few. You can win money at poker.

In fact it is how I built my bitcoin stake slowly over the last 2 years. I am NOT A extraordinary poker player by any means except I am able to combine bankroll management with some skill at low stakes to win over the long term.

Similarly market traders can do this successfully if they are knowledgeable disciplined and lucky. I imagine trading Bitcoin is like skiing Mount Everest. There are many opportunities hiding in this arena for those who are skilled. But more than half the game is knowing when not to play. This is true for poker as well as trading Bitcoin. And just like poker the vast majority of traders would be unsuccessful and in a market like this one get their asses handed to them. So congratulations to all of us dumb buy and hold idiots to use Jays words. Congratulations to us for knowing to stay out of the game.

One thing you learn to do after a million poker hands or so, is spot a fish.

OP is a fish.  I'd welcome him at my table any time.

[e521]

nah, I guess OP is a bitch 

Rates:
50-100:    0.03 BTC
101-250:   0.06 BTC
251-500:   0.12 BTC
501-801:   0.21 BTC
801-1200: 0.32 BTC
1200+:      0.60 BTC

[sgbett]

quick poll. hands up those people who lost BTC recently by holding?


...@....

SO you're telling me if you hold your Bitcoins you never lose. Maybe true, but I never said this wasn't true.

This would've also been true if you bought the S&P 500 stocks in 1950 and held it till today (you would've actually made many times your money back). Does that mean this is the best strategy you could've made? Does that mean you made the most returns in the world?

I'm just saying you can gain EVEN MORE by just using your common sense to take advantage of volatility (opportunities).

I'm sorry you are so dumb you can't even give good arguments. I'm not answering your crap anymore.

If you don't understand something does that make it dumb?

You got tantalisingly close to grasping it but couldn't quite make the mental leap. The corollary to the question I asked is 'hands up those people who lost BTC trading?'. Of course you probably don't understand why that is important so I will explain.

The reason I didn't ask that question, is because everyone will tell you about the trade they won, not many people will tell you about the losses. That goes for this board, for wall st traders, for poker players, the guy in the bookies betting on the nags, the old lady on the slots in vegas and every other risk/reward scenario in the world. Its an innate feature of human psychology regarding loss aversion. Gamble for enjoyment by all means, but never kid yourself you will win (in the long term) unless you are the house.

See you keep making all these posts about how smart you are, and then also making all these posts that demonstrate you are as thick as two short planks, and need everything explaining to you in terms a 12 year old will understand.

You aren't interested in understanding any viewpoint other than your own. You keep reframing your argument in ways to prove how right *you* are and how everyone else is wrong. Your posts reek of insecurity and a need to prove how smart *you* are. You aren't even interested in arguing the matter at hand, just your personal standing.

I don't care if I am wrong about which way BTC is headed, I just execute trades based on rationality, sane risk/reward, and preservation of capital. I don't care how smart or great people think I am, it doesn't really matter in the end. If I say some dumb ass shit, I expect to get pulled on it, and I'll think about what I said and come back stronger.

Here is an example. I used to think I could trade, then I found out I couldn't then I found out that nobody could. TA is apophenia, a chart can be found to retrospectively justify any trade. Statistics quite handily demonstrate why there are trading legends. The people that 'can' trade are lucky. Sometimes a heads comes up 100 times in a row. At any second you could lose it all.

Whereas you by your own admission, have no skin in the game, but need to come on a forum and tell people what they should be doing, even though you don't even understand the basic concept of risk/reward. Have a deluded idea that you can somehow predict that $1200 was the sell point even though it could have been anywhere from $80. Don't seem to grasp, despite having had it explained to you countless times over, that if the trade goes wrong you can incur significant losses.

Markets are primed to screw traders. The bitcoin market is primed to utterly destroy you. If you knew the first thing about the concept of anti-fragility, or hedging against black swan events then you would shrink into a corner embarrassed at how naive your view of things is. I apologised before because I thought maybe I was being too harsh. Your flippant response to that demonstrates material immaturity and an abhorrent personality flaw that is really going to screw you up in life at some point. I realise now I wasn't being too harsh but too kind. You are a child that needs grow the f' up.

Sure you might catch a few good 'trades' on the way. When it all comes crashing down and you are crying in the ashes of your own ruin maybe then you will feel the humility necessary to count yourself as 'human'.

Please do stick to your word and don't even bother trying to respond. You'll just embarrass yourself even further.

I can't stop laughing.

I've read Nassim Taleb's books as well. Not only that but I've been following him on Facebook for the past 4 years or so. You're not saying anything new to me.

Not only that but I have a degree in finance from a very reputable school. Not only that, but I have actually come up with my own model of pricing non-dividents paying European options that my professor couldn't find a flaw in. You want me to continue?

I'm not trying to brag about anything, I just want to make a point once and for all that I know the "Finance" and trading topic very very well. It seems it's you who doesn't want to have an open minded view about what I'm trying to say.

What you fail to see is that all the things you've been reading on Black Swans and "randomness" sure exist, but u fail to see how unrelated my original post is to those events. IF ANYTHING, holding your investment for an extended period of time would have a much higher probability for you to experience those events and lose a big share of your investment.

Mature markets behave in a certain way, and new ones in quiet a different way. I don't think you fully grasped the content of the last couple of books you've read. And for your info Nassim Taleb was a big speculator himself, he was betting that the market will crash for the most part of his life (the fat tails of a normal distribution) and made it in 2008.

If you want to talk more about that I'll be happy to do it in person, check your inbox for my Skype ID. But I think things have gone way to far here....
 

Do not risk it all to gain little. Risk little to gain lots. He made his money with options designed to pay off big when unpredictable stuff happened, which it inevitably did, not by trying to time the market. Are you sure your read his books.

Do you understand that whilst you are trying to capture small gains by trading in and out there is a chance that the market will suddenly and very unpredictably move massively against you.

When you read stuff you are supposed to understand it for what it says, not just make it fit your pre-conceived view.

I knw that very well

But what Nassim labeled as "Randomness" wasn't actually absolute randomness. Randomness doesn't exist in this world. There are scientists who would argue it does exist on a sub-atomic level, but in our physical world it doesn't.

What Nassim labeled as randomness is merely the inability of human brain capacity to predict certain complex events.

For me the move that happened after the Chinese government's announcement wasn't a complex event that couldn't be predicted, but merely an action-reaction phenomena. You can argue that this could be the case 99% of the time and then there's 1% chance a black swan would occur and the market would move in a way that is different to what I predicted. Fair enough, but I'm willing to take this chance myself. And I believe if you take this chance in a new and volatile market like that of Bitcoin, even if you are proven wrong in rare circumstances you'd still make a decent return (may not be true for mature markets as I said).

Are we on the same page now?

I could argue "that this could be the case 99% of the time and then there's 1% chance a black swan would occur and the market would move in a way that is different to what I predicted" but I didn't.

If that was the case, then your e.v. would be better, so of course your follow on statement makes sense.

The thing is the reality is that its more like 50% of the time you will be right and 50% you will be wrong. (nod to oda: some amongst us might be able to shift the odds to a few percent in their favour and get a positive ev in the long run and more power to them, but I bet even the best amongst them didn't *know* to sell at 1200 and buy at $700, I expect their gains were much more tame and much more wary of risking the whole stash. Just as the best poker players in the world know all about bankroll management.)

So on the whole the average joe is facing a losing proposition trading (is this really why you are suggesting people should trade?looking for a few more rubes?), unless you are *brilliant* or lucky. Thats the ~99% of cases. What remains is the chance of the black swan. As Taleb suggests, you position yourself to take advantage.

1. If BTC goes to 'da moon' you want to be holding as many as you can.
2. If BTC goes to 0 (or near enough) and never recovers you don't want to have missed out on the good times.

To hedge against #2 you take a little off the table at well planned intervals, but you try not to compromise #1. That's your big 'option' play so to speak. The insurance against BTC becoming new money whilst you had your eye off the ball.

Apply some math so to tweak your ordered for your own preference of locking in gains now vs potential bigger gains later. Stick to the plan. Zero downside and unlimited upside. Its the holy grail.

Possibly having 20% more BTC to then risk in the next trade where I might lose it all. Thats a bad proposition in anyones book.

I dont believe for a second this would happen (thats why its a black swan!) but...

Imagine another run up over christmas the price goes 'over $9000' then levels out at $9250, volume drops off, the sell side on gox is absolutely huge, buy side is weak... a red candle forms below the 10 day ema, then below the 30 day... bids are drying up, the sell side is f*kn huge and growing at an astonishing rate as so many 'normal' people are sitting looking at gains beyond there wildest dreams. tens of thousands of dollars for 2 or 3 btw that they picked up at $600 back in november....

You are convinced this is the next swing trade, you quickly dump your stash and get a good, no *great* price: $8900 only 5% off the ATH, you have thousands of dollars in play and bids every $200 all the way down to th 68% fib retracement so you can 'get back in cheaper'. By your best estimates you should have around 40% more BTC once this correction is over.

Then as the sell side is finally deep enough that Warren Buffet is able to put in that 210k BTC order he's been looking to fill without pushing the price over $20k. The asks are obliterated up to $18,500 WB is delighted that he averaged in at only $14k only $3bn to get 1% of the money supply, he was just hedging against BTC becoming new money. You are now all in dollars facing a potential 50% haircut on your BTC. The panic sends the markets racing higher... when do you buy. WB famously 'never sells' those BTC aren't going to be back on the market for a long, long time. What do you do.. the price is already over $20k and you haven't even had time to log into gox to place your orders to get back in, and really are you gonna rush to jump back in for a 50% loss? You are going to hesitate... $25k .... You are going to capitulate and buy in, then immediately take a 20% haircut as the price then stabilises at $20k.

Phew. what a ride!

I was asleep whilst all that happened and when I wake up the next morning I have a little chuckle about the fact the BTC has gone and done it again and shake my head in disbelief whilst putting through a SEPA transfer because a few of my sell targets were breached. Tell the wife who laughs again. We continue to joke about when I'll be able to get that porsche for 1BTC that she said I could have all the while not really believing it will ever happen, but at the same time starting to wonder....

Then, continue to hold... For The Longest Time™