as someone who has been here since sub single digits, it is possible to get stuck in one's own little echo chamber.

but when i step back and look at the progress since i first learned about Bitcoin, the only change i see is massive progress.  it's come further, faster than i ever expected.  and it's still only 2014, with my outer bound time limit being 2020.

1.  protocol still intact w/o a major hack or bust
2.  mining security still growing exponentially-makes me calm and happy.
3.  significant merchant adoption beyond expectations with Dell, DISH, Overstock, Expedia being great examples.  and there are more coming.  and they WILL begin offering discounts to lure buyers.
4.  record # wallets-blockchain.info >2M
5.  numerous positive news articles all over the world of adoption successes.  this protects against a major adversary like the US gubmint.
6.  derivatives exchanges beginning to be established to provide greater liquidity and depth (gotta be careful about this to prevent naked shorting, but still overall a positive).
7.  ASIC mining companies pushing the limits of 20nm and lower tech.  soon Intel and AMD will follow.
8.  improvements in wallet security.  i don't understand how ppl keep getting hacked.  i've never lost a coin.
9.  certain gubmints lightening up and looking more positively on Bitcoin unlike the NY clowns.  places like Switzerland, UK, Singapore, etc.  The discord will guarantee that Bitcoin flourishes somewhere.
10.  gold and silver faltering-a move of just 5% out of that market into Bitcoin will jack the price.
11.  stock mkt potentially topping-i think problems in the real economy will help Bitcoin with flows seeking safety.
12.  bond mkts at all time highs-if we get a rise in interest rates, same thing.  5% of flows from there into Bitcoin will jack the price.
13.  forex mkts-largest mkt of all with only one direction for the future values of all fiat-->DOWN.  5% flow from that mkt will jack the price.
14.  real estate starting to suffer again-avg Joe looking for yield no where to be found except maybe Bitcoin. it is The People's Money after all.
15.  halving of the block reward 2 yrs out.  we'll probably get a huge rally as that draws near.  now's the time to buy when others are selling.  they'll be back for sure.

this is really a brilliantly crafted document from the Mercatus Center:

In contrast, the proposed requirement to identify all parties to a transaction might lead to the department having
less
visibility of transactions on the Bitcoin network or any other open cryptocurrency network. This is because,
as noted above, the consequence of such a requirement will likely be that Virtual Currency firms will be forced
to operate closed systems on top of the Bitcoin network. While the department may have good visibility into the
transactions conducted inside these closed networks, it will give up visibility into the broader open network.
Again, a determined actor will always be able to avoid BitLicensed intermediaries and connect directly to the
network in a peer-to-peer fashion. By segregating the BitLicensed businesses from the wider network, there will
be no contact between identified customers and the wider network, and the department will lose visibility into
that wider network.

http://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/BritoDourado-NY-Virtual-Currency-comment-081414.pdf

Yeah,  you picked on that shit too? Amazing.   

the Fed is delusional.  a candy bar, when i was a kid, was $0.05 and an avg house was $24000.  we all know how the CPI has been manipulated into oblivion thru hedonics.


Unfortunately, a gold standard is not a guarantee of price stability. It is simply a promise made “out of thin air” to keep the supply of money anchored to the supply of gold. To consider how tenuous such a promise can be, consider the following example. On April 5, 1933, President Franklin D. Roosevelt ordered all gold coins and certificates of denominations in excess of $100 turned in for other money by May 1 at a set price of $20.67 per ounce. Two months later, a joint resolution of Congress abrogated the gold clauses in many public and private obligations that required the debtor to repay the creditor in gold dollars of the same weight and fineness as those borrowed. In 1934, the government price of gold was increased to $35 per ounce, effectively increasing the dollar value of gold on the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet by almost 70 percent. This action allowed the Federal Reserve to increase the money supply by a corresponding amount and, subsequently, led to significant price inflation.

This historical example demonstrates that the gold standard is no guarantee of price stability. Moreover, the fact that price inflation in the U.S. has remained low and stable over the past 30 years demonstrates that the gold standard is not necessary for price stability. Price stability evidently depends less on whether money is “created out of thin air” and more on the credibility of the monetary authority to manage the economy’s money supply in a responsible manner.

http://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/the-gold-standard-and-price-inflation/

this sounds like bubble mentality:

“Some strategists even view bank debt as a way to protect against the impact of any rise in benchmark interest rates. Many investors are worried that any rate increase by the Federal Reserve will push bond prices down broadly. But higher benchmark interest rates would likely boost banks’ profits, Barclays analysts said in a research note last month.“

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/08/14/banks-financial-companies-issuing-bonds-record-pace-15-august-2014/

here's an example of a dead-ass housing stock that deserved to go BK back in 2008 but instead was bailed out by you and me b/c "it would've been too risky to the financial system" to have done so.  no recovery here:

mofo junk bonds aren't going to make it back to the top:

yeah, that too.

but Bitcoin pretty much grew up w/o NY's help or support.  i don't see why that can't continue.

it'll certainly be interesting to see how important Bter is to NXT.  market is saying "pretty important".  or, it's saying a big selloff of the NXT coins is coming:

insiders cashing out.  

and yet no code, or even a set strategy on security. what a crock a shit.

there are many who believe that markets "really" peaked on 3/24/00, the day the Nasdaq hit it's all time high and that every stimulation done since then has only served to postpone the inevitable long term decline.  you can see we haven't made it back there yet.

ppl ain't happy, and rightfully so.

The preliminary Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for August was at 79.2, down from 81.8 in July. This was the lowest reading since last November and below the consensus forecast of 82.3:

another recession is looking likely:

that uptrending support line i drew on the VIX back in middle of July is still holding.  note the huge reversal candle:

it's ok, altho i do agree their selling is hurting the price.

this is how coins get distributed.  the further the better.

unfortunately, i think Ethereum is a big failure.  even worse than an altcoin that would at least have it's protocol already coded and a clear decision made on mining.  lots of ppl are going to lose money on that one.

their biggest failure is Vitalik's lack of vision and failure to understand economic motives and reasoning.  all that naivete will be built into Ethereum's protocol as we see with their leanings toward scrypt mining.

Silver Wheaton desperately trying to hang on:

silver continuing to lead:

nasty outside reversal on the Russell: