Just curious as to your thoughts on this recent decline in trading price. Manipulated? Bound to happen, nature of Bitcoin? Are we heading to $1.00 BTC soon  Thanks for your insights. SJ I've no idea, and doubt that more than a few people really do. I'm planning to double down one more time if we get deep into the 1.xx range and have the ammo on-line to do so. So I kinda hope that we do but will live either way. I would feel much better about a rally if we do get well below the bottom at $2.04 from a month ago (even though I have little interest in or knowledge of technical analysis.) I am in the same boat. Try to follow the smarties in here for their recommendations, but the bottom line is I think I secretly wish for $1 btc, then I will go in big and long. we never did get to $1 |
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I remember when 1 bitcoin was worth more then 1 ounce of gold crazy times.
just briefly. i remember sitting there watching Bitcoin ascend to meet gold. what a thrill. it was the culmination of 2.5 yrs of posting about it. if there was one thing that i could point to that capped the rally @1200 back in Dec it was Satoshi daring to touch the face of gold. traders immediately sold it off and took profits as the once considered impossible occurred. we've had a wicked retrace since then but i'm convinced the story is not over and that we will go back up and touch it again. IIRC when bitcoin=gold ounce was the peak. Cypherdoc, do you think that confirms there is a strong relationship between gold and btc? from a conceptual standpoint, Satoshi designed Bitcoin to be a digital form of gold. he talks about this in some of his earlier writings. he also used the term "mining" which is a direct reference to gold mining. his genesis block indicates a sophisticated understanding of fiat bailouts and the moral hazards related to such. the whole design of decentralization, key to Bitcoin's success, is an attempt to avoid gvt interference and censorship, something gold bugs have always been concerned about. Satoshi's insight came after many decades of various digital cash forerunners. the fixed supply of BTC is a fundamental concept behind sound money and a throwback to the days before we had central banks. when i first started studying about Bitcoin in Jan 2011, i saw the relationship immediately. my many years of gold and silver hoarding was critical to understanding what he had invented. so yes, i think there is a conceptual relationship btwn Bitcoin and gold designed from the beginning by Satoshi himself. yes, i do think the fact that Bitcoin touched the gold price back in Dec is symbolic and will be retested. your question really is, what is the price relationship going to be long term? i think it's going to be inverse. but only over the long term as we've seen since gold's top and Bitcoins low in 2011. obviously, under most other shorter term time frames you won't see it b/c there is still considerable doubt and skepticism to the idea which causes plenty of divergences to the inverse relationship seen in the price data. having actually monitored the news and price flow closely in this arena since January 2011, i think i will be right in the long run despite the recent Bitcoin bearishness. but it's also possible my judgment is clouded given my portfolio positioning. all i can do is continue to present my case here in the form of links, references, charts, graphs, statistics, theoretical arguments, etc, as i have done since Gold: I Smell a Trap |
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I remember when 1 bitcoin was worth more then 1 ounce of gold crazy times.
just briefly. i remember sitting there watching Bitcoin ascend to meet gold. what a thrill. it was the culmination of 2.5 yrs of posting about it. if there was one thing that i could point to that capped the rally @1200 back in Dec it was Satoshi daring to touch the face of gold. traders immediately sold it off and took profits as the once considered impossible occurred. we've had a wicked retrace since then but i'm convinced the story is not over and that we will go back up and touch it again. |
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hmmm. are they really going to raise interest rates?:  |
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if anybody here has a Pro version of the Tradingview.com chart function, i'd love to see the Volume Profile for Bitcoin at Bitstamp.
obviously, we'd see the peak of the histogram somewhere around here in the 440 range but it would be interesting to see the exact price and the relative heights around it.
It will also be at peak around 600. yeah, i noticed that after i posted. it would be interesting to compare the 2 price levels. |
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the main bull argument i see here for a bottom in the 440 range is we have considerable support as seen in the drawn oval. sure, there's a chance we push down into the 300's to challenge the 339 low but the bears have to get thru the support level first. that's going to be difficult due to all the selling that's been going on. do they have the ammunition? the other thing i said above is that it looks like gold is heading into a world of hurt starting right about now. that should be good for Bitcoin.  if anybody here has a Pro version of the Tradingview.com chart function, i'd love to see the Volume Profile for Bitcoin at Bitstamp. obviously, we'd see the peak of the histogram somewhere around here in the 440 range but it would be interesting to see the exact price and the relative heights around it. |
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"the other thing i said above is that it looks like gold is heading into a world of hurt starting right about now. that should be good for Bitcoin."
Cypher, I'm thinking the average gold investor will be scared to shift into btc if they perceive it to be just another CB controlled market. Out of the frying pan etc. Wall Street will switch its attention to btc when the Fed stops controlling the Dow/S&P. There's too much easy money to be made in the stock markets for the big boys until then, and any shift to safety just seems to go into the dollar and related instruments. The major funds have pulled billions out of the UK markets in recent weeks, mainly because of Scotland's independence referendum and the only beneficiaries of that move seem to be $DXY and other major stock markets. A yes vote will see some nice volatility in the markets, but I'm not sure if bitcoin will see much impact. The voting starts later today.
i've been beating on this drum for well over 3 yrs now and i'd bet just about every serious gold investor has become sick hearing about Bitcoin. i know for sure many here are sick of me. i really don't like the price action in gold as i've tried to demonstrate above and if it starts heading south to the degree i think it will, goldbugs will have to capitulate and run to something. i think their distaste for the USD is such that a significant portion of the gold market can come to Bitcoin helping to fuel the next rally. i realize it's wild to think that but its worked beautifully for me personally for all this time. so far. |
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here's even worse news on the Gold 10 yr weekly chart with VP which covers most of the 11yr bull market that peaked in 2011. this chart shows that the highest volume of tx's for the last 10 yr period occurred @1311.5. that little red line is the line i've been drawing on the daily charts the last few weeks as to what once was support and is now resistance. it appears gold has failed to penetrate to the upside via climbing the mountain and penetrating the red line. this apparent failure indicates to me that gold has just started to make its definitive move to the downside and should break below the long sideways consolidation channel its been in for the last year and few months. once it does that, there is little to no support left until about 926.  |
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here's a fun one; the volume profile chart of gold for 5y weekly. you can see that gold failed to ascend the mountain on the vertically oriented VP histogram and has fallen back and is sliding down. it should slide all the way down w/o much resistance to 1175 before having to ascend a smaller mountain to approx 1130. VolumeProfile
Description
The Volume Profile study represents trading activity over a time period at specified price levels. Considering the input-defined aggregation period, the Volume Profile plots a histogram showing price distribution, revealing the dominant price values in terms of volume. The width of histogram's row represents the number of actual transactions made within the price interval defined by the row's height. |
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the main bull argument i see here for a bottom in the 440 range is we have considerable support as seen in the drawn oval. sure, there's a chance we push down into the 300's to challenge the 339 low but the bears have to get thru the support level first. that's going to be difficult due to all the selling that's been going on. do they have the ammunition? the other thing i said above is that it looks like gold is heading into a world of hurt starting right about now. that should be good for Bitcoin. |
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$DXY just poked its head over the top of resistance --> Breakout!  |
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never mix money and women
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i think you're gonna be right
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i said this in the Wall St Myth thread.
what Wall St will need to see to get into Bitcoin in a big way is Gold Collapsing, Bitcoin UP. once they see that money moving into Bitcoin and the increased liquidity that comes with it, then they will be willing to get in in a big way. both of these factors will be huge inputs into the price.
it's happening now.
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clearly POW is failing:  |
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