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^^^ problem loading page.
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I'll give it a shot: Most people post conservative numbers of 1200-1500...meh. I'll try to tackle this here. In 2013 we started at $13 with maximum at $1165 (Bitstamp, and I will ignore the $1242 on MtGox because it was illiquid) 1165/13=89.615X We started 2017 at $968.32 (index price), therefore I suggest that 89.615X968.32=$86775 is our upper bound (admittedly, a very unlikely one). What is a more realistic, yet probably maximum price? I suggest to look at jl2012 exponential graph (BETI) thread. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.0To break local maximum value with respect to the exponential graph few days ago was $19510 and this will be rising as we progress in a 2017, but not sure what would be the number by the end of the year. I would guesstimate, at least $25000-26000 (by Dec 31, 2017) Therefore, if bitcoin matches what it did before either by performing super-exponentially sometime this year or matching yearly maximum appreciation, the upper boundary would be 25-87K/bitcoin. That said, I believe that several parameters have to be activated almost simultaneously: 1. ETF has to be approved. 30% chance, in my opinion. 2. Significant indication of a currency crisis somewhere. Probability unknown, maybe 10%. So 1+2 together =3% chance 3. Some central bank decides to accumulate bitcoin and news of this leaks. Maybe 2% probability, difficult to estimate. This parameter alone would be sufficient. So, there is a nonzero (single digits) chance of 25-87K/bitcoin in 12-18 mo. It would be interesting to watch. |
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I've wondered why no one has arraigned a group buy for this card.
Why even go with the above link when newegg has them cheaper by $15 for the exact same card?  https://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16814202224And their is a $15 rebate on top of that to make it near to the $200 mark per card. $219 to be exact.  Not the same card, dude. the one that you linked is 1306 mhz and the one I linked is 1342 mhz The 1342 mhz card is $245+$5 shipping at Newegg (after rebate), just click at an appropriate button two things: 1. you can get only ONE card with rebate/store. 2. When price is 219.99, it is NOT actually 219, it is more like $220. |
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I run my cards undervolted and underclocked, so my RX 470's running at 1100/1750 get about 230 on Claymore's 11.1
On Optiminer, the same settings are getting me about 210, so about 10% lower at the same power draw, but Optiminer has historically been better on Linux.
RX 470 (MSI and sapphire) get 262-272 on Ubuntu 16.04 without undervolting and underclocking on default settings. Is it really beneficial to underclock/undervolt? somehow 1.6 is less stable for me (so far) than 1.5 and 1.5 was less stable than prior. |
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Doubling in price in half the time pattern essentially still holding for this exponential bull run ... late March 1600-1800, mid-May 3200-3600, early June insane vertical up to 6500-7200 and pop. For approximate repeat of 2013 halving bull adoption wave blow-off.
Pop? Higher or $7000 as a blowoff top? |
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^^^I am entertained for sure, was not expecting prices above $1000 for at least a couple of months.
We basically zig-zagged and NOT truly consolidated (so far).
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Thats it. We have now transited permanently into the realm of 4-figure BTC, never to return. We will never again see sub $1000 BTC. Double top on the 12-hour, concluded 3-year consolidation from last ATH. Games now going with serve and increments of $100  next step, we will be trading in mbtc as default so newbs are not scared of "high" prices  . china will switch over very soon. |
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Yeah the SEC decides in March if the ETF will be approved or not.
IF approved it will be huge. Imagine all those billions of dollars of people's IRA that will be hedged with a small part of BTC.
total in US retirement accounts (2015 numbers, more by now): 25 trillions or 25000 billions. Considering that 5-10 mil in US have bitcoin and those are probably mostly younger people with ret accounts balance, say, at $30K, making those accounts worth up to 300bil. I would pencil in 3% of those accounts going to bitcoin ETF since those are already investing in bitcoin, making a nice 10 bil contribution plus conservatively 0.1% of the rest of ret accounts accounts=250 bil. Is 0.1% realistic? I think so. Therefore, $10 bil is almost guaranteed, with another 250bil also likely. Personally, i will probably invest up to 5% of my IRA(s) into bitcoin ETF(s). |
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in any case, i remember researching this and slush's was 10gh minimum: https://slushpool.com/help/#!/first-aid/troubleshooting so, slushpool should work just fine, especially if several sticks=1 worker |
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besides the ETF will carry the same premiums
Of course, not. GBTC had more than 100% premium at the point where the trade I described had the most sense (last July). ETF would have low premium (most likely), similar to GLD/gold. |
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The last 3 months, GBTC has gone up 19.61%, while BTC has gone up 57.33%. The last year, GBTC has gone up 68.67%, while BTC has gone up 119.65%. ...suggesting that COIN and XBTC ETFs might have a chance. I don't know about that. Why would someone sell their shares of GBTC based on that premise, given that the underlying asset that they hold would be worth a lot more on the news of COIN or XBTC being approved? no, the ideal trade based on that premise would have looked like this (last July when premium was the highest): Short GBTC, buy the equivalent $$ amount of bitcoin. Almost no risk if you know that ETF is going to be approved eventually. As you yourself pointed, that trade would have made almost 51% in a year (119.65-68.67) with almost ZERO risk. |
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Haha I think it's funny to read, but unrealistic. I doubt bitcoin will go to $10,000 this year. That's a large jump from a $1,000. Also I doubt that the devil created bitcoins well bitcoin went from $90 to $1200 which is a higher jump, i bet none was able to predict that move on the market unless you were the one doing it of course it's still possible for bitcoin to go to 10k in this year, plenty of time yet, the problem will be the dump... Actually, it went from $13 to $1165 (Bitstamp), all within 2013, almost 100X fold. Crazy, I know. Could easily go to $3000 IF ETFs are approved. Re the essay, some amusing points, although time frame described is too close. Later on, the piece transforms into something dark and incomprehensible. |
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I am OK with speed of 1.5.0, but on my Ubuntu rigs (RX 470) stability is OK, but not great comparing with EWBF miner on 1060, albeit on a single card (NVIdia). Nvidia miner is like a rock and 1.5.0 dumps core every 48-72 hr.
Some prior builds were more stable, for example 0.6.0 and 1.3.2.
Thanks.
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I believe the price can reach 1000$ this year, but to reach 2000$ it is a bit difficult and we are still waiting for the china case result, hopefully there wont be a banning in china, because most of the user is there, banning them will affected price
NOT sure what you are talking about? Price WAS already above $1000 this year (2017). |
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So are we looking on: Gold market cap / total amount of non-lost bitcoins as maximum? So something like 40k USD per 1 BTC and that's it?
You lost a zero here somewhere. market cap of gold is around 7-7.4 trillions, which would be about 350-400K/btc considering 16-18 mil btc (3-5 mil could be lost). |
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here is Phil's original pic, with some lettering by @murasame2003 and myself. It might help some newbs as to where to measure voltage and where to adjust it:  |
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...to find out if humans can cooperate and reach consensus? TIC
we are failing...
In retrospect, what would you expect?
95% consensus on anything important? When did it happen before on something this complex?
It would be curious to see what happens later on this year.
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Also I'd love an option to go with no warranty and 10% off the purchase price. Would be way better since their warranty is almost useless due to the shipping costs and difficulties.
this would just incentivize them to move the worst performing machines into that category. expect the unexpected. |
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