Personally, I sold the ETF launch once $48K was hit. I wasn't confident that it would even reach $48.5K at the time due to low volume, but alas there was a small pump for 30 minutes after the launch.


I assume you mean Monday for new weekly candle? But yes, agreed, if the candle ends in the red below $44K I'd consider it a massive sell signal for sure. Not just for a small correction either. However given how quickly price has retracted to $43K support, I wouldn't be surprised to see a rebound back to around $46K/$47K over the weekend, which if closing there would lead to a more neutral, even bullish, weekly candle.


Indeed. I did previously have sell orders around $50K for a while, but after seeing how many sell orders were piling up there I lowered to $48K (and glad I did). I did initially think price could wick as high as $55K prior to the launch, somewhere between $50K and $60K, but clearly this wasn't the case. Once the announcement arrived and price barely moved I had a feeling the launch would be a non-event as it were.

Who led you to believe that?! I was under the impression it would likely be a "buy the rumour sell the news" type event, one based on continued upside based on the "rumour" followed by an immediate dump after the announcement and launch, which is exactly what happened. I'm surprised if anyone is shocked by the current result of these ETF launches. Wall St are not Bitcoiners, they are not going to just FOMO into an ETF.

There's also a huge difference between "price can increase dramatically" with increased amount of liquidity/investment into Bitcoin via ETFs, and ETFs pumping the price overnight to $100K. The ETF will only be "good" or "useful" after the halving, once price has stabilised and there are strong fundamental reasons for a new bull market - as per - "every bull market starts after the halving".

Just going to leave this chart here is an update, given that the week is currently turning bearish after reaching the 0.618 fib retracement level:



Even with a rebound back to resistance levels around $47K I'm struggling to have a bullish outlook for the immediate term. There was already the bearish divergences on most time-frames, which isn't much to acknowledge without any confirmation of downside price action, but today there has certainly been some confirmation. Based on Coinbase volume, this week is now the worst sell-off since 2022.

I feel that all we can hope for is a miracle right now. A strong rebound over the weekend back to resistance levels for a more neutral weekly candle, followed by a dose of hopium.

At the start of the month I would have said hell yeh, but now I've voted no based on how the week is currently panning out. Price has finally reached the 0.618 fib retracement target of $48.5K, similar to the uptrends of 2016 and 2019, and now I fear there is a long-way down to reality around $30K. Not only is this week currently looking like a doji reversal candle, the worst we've seen since October 2021, but also it's the highest selling week in over 10 months, and it's still only Friday. To me the only hope is a strong rebound to around $46K to $47K over the weekend for the week to end more neutrally.



The potential for a "buy the rumour sell the news" ETF launch event was never going to end well in my opinion. Now there are fresh ETFs looking bearish, and if Wall St do what they usually do, it'll be to wait for a 50% correction prior to dipping their toes in the water. The upside is that the halving is only 4 months away, so any correction or capitulation should be short-lived at least.

All I can say is oh dear, newbies in their first bull run are questioning whether this is the start of the bull-run, seemingly unaware that Bitcoin has been in an uptrend for 12 months already 

I don't mean to be rude but these for me are all the classic signs of a reversal; when people start questioning whether the bull-run is starting after a parabolic move to the upside has already occured. It's very odd to see the "buy the rumour sell the news" so far play-out so accurately, given it was well-documented in the media, but I guess some scenarios (despite how well discussed) just do play out as such.

If anything I'm now getting sceptical over the sell-off, as if everyone starts speculating that there will be a major sell-off, price is more likely to reverse back to $46K to $47K 

Only just seen your thread, but yes 0.618 fib retracement hasn't failed calling the top on a dead cat bounce yet. It worked in 2016 and 2019, now to see if 2024 plays out the same way. Personally I didn't sell around $48.5K that was my measurement, but instead $48K, but it's all the same at the end of the day if price is to correct -35-50%. Still can't believe the ETF launched timed in perfectly with the 0.618 to be honest.

Now just to wait for a dip to hodl, and I right?

Feels like we've been starved of dips since March 2023, when price corrected from $25K to $20K, which was an incredibly tasty dip. Since then, we've had $30K to $25K that barely reached -20%.

All I can say is that I'm looking forward to more dip buying in the near future. Hopefully 2024 will be better dip buying experience than 2023 was!

If support levels break, I think $30K to $40K will be the accumulation level for the next 6 months ish. On the way down and then on the way back up. Unless you're trying to catch a black swan event or capitulation below $25K, I think 6 months of DCA would result in a tidy ~$35K average price personally. Wouldn't be surprised to see a re-test of $47K before end of week though, as the post ETF sell-off has occurred too quickly. Either that or price simply trashes $42K/$43K support level and pretends like it never existed in the first place. One month of volume support currently having no reaction from the bulls which is odd.

Indeed, always has been always will be  

It doesn't even matter that the chart looked like (looks like) shit to most, the relevance is that like Bitcoin's price, it's market dominance has been on bull run for the past year, and as always, it was never going to last long-term or be sustained. I'm still dubious if altcoins are really going to have a rally here, but it looks like they have about a years worth of trying to catch up at a minimum.

To clarify how it really works; the smart traders stay the fuck away from shitcoins when Bitcoin is pumping - ie for all of 2023. The irony being there are many shitcoins that have doubled in value in 2023, meaning they are only went down around -35-50% against Bitcoin. So there remains a lot of opportunities for shitcoinery, when the concept of a "missed pump" doesn't apply if you were holding Bitcoin, because you can still buy shitcoins at the same fiat prices as 2023 using satoshis, obviously with the intention of increasing satoshis, with fiat values becoming completely irrelevant, it's all about Bitcoin value.

That said, I'm not convinced about a new altseason, it'd require Bitcoin to stabilise and consolidate sideways for a few months. Any dump below $40K will likely have the inverse effect, and Bitcoin's market dominance will simply continue to grow. But ultimately, people want to speculate on coins that are still down 90-95%, as opposed to -35% like Bitcoin, because there is much further upside potential. The shitcoin market is such a filthy arena that you only need 10-20% of trades to go as planned to increase your Bitcoin stash. Pretty sure a monkey or ape could out-trade most of Wall St to be honest.

I guess this could be the problem; Bitcoin likes to take the path of maximum pain for speculators. In 2023 this was continued upside, as many took profits too early and others got liquidated shorting the price. Now the path of maximum pain would be a return to $30K support imo, or lower, now that many speculators still anticipate higher levels since the ETFs have launched. Personally I'd be happy to see $30K again within the next few months, followed by healthy consolidation around $40K leading into and after the halving. It seems like much of the market was under the impression that Bitocin was in a "never-ending" uptrend, or new bull market, but so far in it's history this has never been a thing prior to halving. Corrections always occur eventually, and when they do and the trend shifts from bullish to bearish, they are usually quite severe.

The ETF hype is over, that much is clear. The excitement was based on the approval and launch, it was never based on the usage or volume afterwards, these things take time to build. However the halving is only 4 months away, and to me that is always an exciting period, even if is usually based on more price stability rather than a parabolic move to the upside like we've seen in 2023.

To me, regardless of price correcting from here, it seems a correction will only last around 4 months, as opposed to 9-12 months like we've seen in the past, due to the date of the halving and how long the retracement of Bitcoin took to reach it's 0.618 fib level - previously this has only taken 3-6 months, but this time it took 12 months. That said, if price is to return to $30K support, it's going to have to do so quickly, as once the halving occurs there won't be any more substantial decline, more likely sideways as we've usually seen (as miners initially balance out selling reduced supply with many switching off due to less rewards etc).

Unfortunately too many speculators rely on these "reverse signals", because they are right 95-99% of the time. But what about the 1-5% when they actually get it right? No-one mentions it, because if you've been calling a top in Bitcoin throughout 2023, you're eventually going to make a right call is the reality. It reminds me of Il Capo; if you call a top enough times, eventually you'll get it right! No credit necessary...

As for the chart, this is so far going as anticipated, ie buy the rumour sell the news. The Weekly candle, which is the most relevant right now, as is turning into a massive doji reversal, the likes we haven't seen since October 2021, ie with a 10% wick to the upside, nothing else comes close. There were a few in July and August last year, as well as February 2022, prior to price correcting, but nothing as substantial.

In fact, if price ends the week below $44K, with a -10% wick, it'd be the longest bearish wick since June 2019 that was -20%. Obviously this doesn't mean price will definitely move to the downside, only that out of the handful of bearish doji candles in recent years, all of them led to a correction of some sort; whether that was minor or severe. That said, the current structure still remains bullish above $43K.

Seriously?! It's a phrase that means "insignificant" as opposed to literally a drop in an ocean, which would be miniscual, quite obviously as it's a metaphor that's not meant literally. Maybe this is a British phrase or something? Can't believe I feel the need to have to do this for something so trivial, but here are dictionary definitions of the phrase for you (spoiler; it has nothing to do 2.664X10^25 drops):



So yes, when we are talking about 5% of volume, I consider it a very small amount. Others may just consider it a small amount, but I'd consider it very small. To me it's the equivalent of a strong wind when driving down the highway/motorway at 70mph/110kmh (en/us context). It's not enough to take you of course 99% of the time, as it's only about 5% of the force in play, but it does mean you have to adjust for it; that analogy you're welcome to take literally. My point was more to whoever said that Bitcoin had "become TradFi". Whereas actually it's 95% not TradFi, and won't be, until ETF volume is at least 51%.

Ok, maybe nothing like futures launch back in 2017, but also potentially proportionate based on market cap? Even so, I wouldn't rely too much solely on new tickers and the volume appearing quite yet...

I need to have a proper analysis of these Bitcoin tickers in general, from new ETFs to old products, because one thing I have noticed today is the bearish spike in selling volume for the likes of BTC1!, BITO and BITS (more so than BTC), which suggests to me that those speculating on Bitcoin's price rise into the ETF were doing so not only on the spot market but also on older products, ETNs and futures I'm assuming.

If I had to guess, Wall St are playing each other with older products being used to dump on newer products. At least that's the initial impression I'm getting. Also what happened to the "normality" of simply expecting/waiting for a 50% drop once new products are listed? This is like the defacto move for Wall St; wait for the -50%, then buy in. It explains a lot of previous Bitcoin-based launches as well.

Ie maybe this is less about Bitcoin correcting the usual 30%-50% after a parabolic move, and more about new launches on stock exchanges dropping 50% before going anywhere relevant. Just a thought. Let's not forget the amount of money invested in Bitcoin futures right now, because no doubt a lot of futures speculation was based on a future ETF that has now been launched. Again, just food for thought here.

Because TradFi cares about Bitcoin, clearly. Not to be confused or conflated with the alternative scenario. Bitcoin has quite clearly demonstrated today with a -5% drop post-launch: it doesn't care for TradFi. Or even arguably, TradFi doesn't care for Bitcoin yet. Either way you slice it, I stand by my original statement that appears correct as of writing: Bitcoin doesn't care about no TradFi.


Exactly. It's currently a drop in the ocean. As predicted by much of the media, it's barely relevant, much like when Bitcoin Futures initially launched. The interest was almost non-existent.

For reference inflows were never expected to be that high initially, regardless of current price being high or low. Asset managers and institutions were always going to sit on the sidelines and engage in a more "wait and see" approach, as a form of basic risk management rather than FOMO into such an offering, such as waiting for price stability over a period of months.


This I don't doubt, but until it does, I wouldn't describe Bitcoin as TradFi, only aspiring to be as such. There is still a long way to go, these concepts don't happen overnight or with a flick of a "ETF" switch.

Sure, price wicks down -40% to $30K rather than $25K, otherwise closing weekly candle around $35K (-27%). No arguments there. 0.618 fib retracement painted the same picture.


Bitcoin doesn't care about no TradFi. If you're already open to the idea of mid thirties than we're not that different. My estimate is somewhere between $25K to $35K.


Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

I think it depends more on whether you took profits in 2021. Personally, I didn't. Call me naive I know, but without a parabolic run & top I wasn't inclined to do so. So without capturing $50K+ I'm happy with $48K. I'm also well aware price could reach $50K to $60K in the coming weeks / months, even as high as $80K prior to halving realistically, and personally am prepared for that scenario as well, I just don't see the likelihood.

I'm also not going to be disappointed if price goes more sideways than down and finds support around $40K. In fact, I'd happily buy back at $48K some weeks/months later if that is to be the case, I just personally don't see a mild 25% pull-back after a 150% increase being all that likely. Even in full-blown bull-markets we see 35%+, which would be nearer $30K in this case. ETFs could certainly prop up the price though.

I think if it weren't for the ETF launches I'd be less encouraged to sell some coin. But given the alignment/timing of price at resistance / retracement targets alongside the "sell the news" event, I found it impossible not to take up the opportunity.  And personally, given the immediate fake-out new high since the launch, I'm very glad I did, as I only see price going in one direction in the near future.

I've been waiting for price to retrace to it's 0.618 fib retracement level for over a year now, since the $15.5K low, and finally today that target has been reached @ $48.5K as price (as of writing) has reached a peak of $48.9K. Notably in 2019 price went a little higher than it's expected retracement level of $13.3K, instead reached $13.8K, and nearly $14K on some exchanges, so further upside remains more than possible.



I hope I'm wrong, but personally I think this is the local top for now and price will correct 30-50% from here, to $25K to $35K $20K to $30K, which would also be completely normal after a 150% increase in 2023.  Bare in mind in 2019 price increased by 300%+ and corrected 50%+ from $13.8K level to $6.4K within about 5 months (covid crash aside). Ironically today is also the day the ETF launches, which I find far from a coincidence.

I'm not expecting a black swan event here, just the usual retracements / corrections after a parabolic run. In this case, something less severe than 2019 around $30K if I had to guess.

Well no, not really. It's been well documented in the media and such that this could be an "implosion of new money into Bitcoin" or a "buy the rumour sell the news" type event. So far, I'd say it's the latter, but only time will tell. To me it's more the fact Bitcoin has reached my minimum target for a retracement from ATH to bear market low. It's just a "concidence" it occurred on the day of the ETF launch. Ie, not a coincidence at all.

Even with no ETF launch I'd be taking profits at current levels, because it feels eerily similar to summer 2019 parabolic run, at very similar levels as it were. Even if not I'm anticipating any sort of black swan event, a 35% to 50% correction feel due, much like in 2020 even before the covid crash, ie from $14K to $7K. In this case a think a milder (by %) pull-back to around $30K is in order.

Not gonna lie though, the trend is still bullish, even with current rejection on lower time-frames. It's more the red flags on the chart that's causing me to lose faith in continued upside right now. To me it's the same as $12.8K in 2019, so sure price could go a bit higher in the short-term, but notably anything above $12K back then was a solid selling opportunity. At least until price returned to $7K.

I was considering that price could hit $50K to $55K level, even after the launch, but seeing how price reacted today already I've ruled it out now and took profits at $48k. I always considered this new "Bitcoin product" launch as bearish, despite the long-term bullish applications, such as every other launch to date; CBOE, CME, ProShares, etc. You could also argue that it arrived at a bad time, just as price was at a key resistance level around $48K, which is the 0.618 fib retracement level from ATH to recent low, but it seems more like price had already moved as far as reasonably possible and was sitting just under distribution zone.

Am more or less bearish now until either $30K or May, whichever comes first. 2023 was a good year. I'm sure 2024 will end well, but first price needs to cool off considerably.