Recapping, mostly for my own reference: Sell when/before a whale does, catch the knife, ride out the bull trap, sell on the market-order-frenzy peak, then buy when the dust settles. Easy right?  Step 1. sell Step 2. catch (buy) Step 3. ride (--> sell) Step 4. buy  I hope I'm right! Go fractals! [edit] SORRY these numbers don't have anything to do with EW theory. Please don't confuse  So I guess the logical extension of this conversation is... where does #3 land? My guess is 850-900 based on price ranging through this weekend, though volume was pretty low even for a weekend, so that may not be accurate. And yes, #4 should be somewhere in the twilight zone. I would consider $500 reasonably safe based on price action Nov 19-20. I would consider $315 nearly indestructible, and $266 psychologically indestructible. However, momentum may carry us past some of these points for brief periods. All prices in Gox. And to keep things in perspective, please notice the double-exponential (exponential on a log scale) over the past couple years:  |
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is $400 too greedy? maybe I should back off and say $500.
The thing I am (very slowly) learning is that its better to capture 70% of a drop than to not capture it at all. |
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good thing I'm a bit-stamp trader. Anyway, I'm so far bad at making calls on these mini waves. My next move will be for the long haul.
A much better strategy (long haul). Day trading and timing takes way more nerves and can be less predictable (thought the last few market impulses have been very fractal in nature). I feel like the last few pages of TA on this thread called today's movement pretty well. That hasn't always been the case, but it has at least poised us to make intelligent actions based on data, and narrowed our options for action. [edit] I'd also like to mention that false bull traps are a possibility. I was very worried about that due to the rise from Dec 7-10, then most of this weekend... I sold some around 900 during the crash from 1200 and gox was deciding that 900-1000 was a good range to be in. I held my position largely because of the sentiment and sound arguments/TA in this thread (and that I wasn't far off from closing my position with null change). |
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so are we in the midst of a bear market? long and painful, maybe get us down to the $400's?
Maybe. I think $400 is far more likely on btc-e and bitstamp than mtgox. Also if it gets there at all, $400 will be momentary (place your orders now). I think $500 will see some super-serious support on mtgox and btcchina. We are currently on the other side of a bull trap. This week I think a steady decline fueled by whales pulling the trigger on their decisions is likely. This means volatility and is good for day traders. Sell when/before a whale does, catch the knife, ride out the bull trap, sell on the market-order-frenzy peak, then buy when the dust settles. Easy right? |
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The 3-hour chart (full scale) on bitcoinity for Gox is looking pretty wild -- definitely some manipulation going on there. Feels like market orders are getting executed way late.
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Recently sold off some around 780 with the intention of buying back later
Any reading material you all recommend for TA? Books and websites. I have superficial understanding of it based on TA for Dummies (I think it was) and Investopedia
Babypips.com's "school" section has decent cliff's-notes descriptions of all the popular TA shapes. Obviously, its based on Forex. |
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Brisance, youre gaining haters! Must be doing something right. Thanks for your analysis.
Oda.krell, I think I get the gist of what youre saying but it sounds a little scatterbrain. Mind doing a tl;dr?
Then again I just got out of bed. Ill try again after a cup of coffee.
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Excellent observation Brisance. It's nice when you can get a pre-confirmation from the other side of the equation while doing TA. Even if the wall-whale doesn't pull out I don't think we will slide very far, unless people are getting antsy/panicky from this lack of volume. These feelings are not founded on anything in particular, just my gut.  |
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Bottom leg of the triangle still not broken though. There are several factors to consider at this point in time: 1) we are in a rather large consolidation phase between the second top of 1240 and the bottom of 576. 2) The outcome of the breakout from this triangle will likely determine a significant new trend upwards or downwards. 3) Weekend is approaching, and despite the ardent opponents of the weekend dip theory, it would be foolish to discount the lack of flow of funds to the exchanges (potential contributor to bearish outcome as it would be easier to push the price down with less fiat on the exchanges). 4) The cup and handle formation mentioned above (which if it were to complete and breakout on high volume, it would compound synergistically with the triangle mentioned in points 1 and 2
Overall, while I am generally bullish, I'm feeling pretty bearish about the current situation and would not be surprised if we were to test the 576 low, and if broken go down as low as 450 (support from the late November correction
Captures my sentiments pretty closely. ^ the fancy way of saying "+1"  |
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It seems like that handle is being drawn exactly as predicted On extremely low volume... not sure if/how that effects its validity, but that is a pretty clear picture, innit? |
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Well this is a little weird. Cup and handle is typically a bullish continuation. But JUST before the start of this formation we had a double top.
If you include the double top formation, the formation of a "handle" would make the whole pattern look like an inverse head and shoulders (bearish).
Also, bitcoin don't give a shit.
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A hint for those who're wondering if the boat left without them: As a general rule, either don't trade at all, or if you trade: don't wait too long. What I mean in particular is that, given the correction we just saw, you had two realistic options, and one unrealistic one. The unrealistic one first: you're as good as luc, and you traded the swing perfectly (let's assume he did for a moment  ) Okay, so you're not as good at reading the market... what are your other options then? The obvious one, often repeated by some of the big holders actually, like Rampion: just buy & hold. Which means during this swing, you would have done nothing. Problem solved? No, because I know that's not what I want, so I'm going to guess you don't want that either. You'd prefer to a) insure your investment against total loss, and b) you'd like to occasionally *profit* from the swings (i.e. your coin stash is bigger than before). So I always cringe a bit when I read those tortured "Should I buy back?!" posts, or the ones that ask over and over "Should I sell already?!". The answer is: yes. If you trade at all, trade (relatively) often. That doesn't mean twice a day, not even twice a week, but instead of *wondering* if a correction is over, you *buy* if it seems to go up again, but be ready to *sell* as soon as it looks like the recovery was a bull trap after all. I don't mean to sound like giving trite advice. The devil is obviously in the details, and you still need to familiarize yourself with some basic amount of TA to get a feeling for the market. But the single most important thing I had to learn in the past few months, and that I still have to bang into my head at each opportunity is that, if you're not sure, either act fast, or don't act at all.Good advice. It's tough to do while I hold a day job  |
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Prediction: he'll say it's interesting as a free market competitive money, but will also say that gold is better.
winner. also, you can tell he's watching it closely. he said, "you saw that it wasn't very stable when the chinese government said they werent going to allow it and the value dropped 2-300 dollars." |
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again, nice one oda.krell. hmm... it looks like its stabilized again at 900 ish, is it due to steadily rise or is there going to be a sharp drop? I'm confused by this.
I think that everyone is thinking this. What I have observed is that bitcoin rises and falls are fractal in nature (in that the short term ones on the order of minutes-hours often resemble long term ones on the order of days-weeks). This would tell me that we are due for a ~3 day downtrend to about 750-800 before turning around again to who knows where (sentiment pump to new ATH?). Note that is the worst kind of speculation -- one based on physics, which is essentially the universal opposite of emotion Do you reckon it might fly down to $550 or maybe even $500? I was looking at another inflationary commodity, gold. It has a period in the late 80's where it double-peaked, went down, came back up in price then went right back down again to roughly the same value the first dip was in. Think it could behave like that? Personally, no I don't think so, especially if there is a steady decline over days. Then again, just from memory, bitcoin's exchange rate rarely has a 'steady decline' over several days... a sell-off seems to always be triggered by 1-2 big sells, which act as an impulse to a (lately) well-damped system. Go back and try to find those days and you'll see what I mean. As an engineer, every time there is a sell-off, I can't help but see some variation on this (except inversed), but that might just be me:  I think if we're going to see any kind of $500-550 levels in the next week or so, it'll be for just a few moments (like, seconds-minutes), so have your orders set there well ahead of time. |
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again, nice one oda.krell. hmm... it looks like its stabilized again at 900 ish, is it due to steadily rise or is there going to be a sharp drop? I'm confused by this.
I think that everyone is thinking this. What I have observed is that bitcoin rises and falls are fractal in nature (in that the short term ones on the order of minutes-hours often resemble long term ones on the order of days-weeks). This would tell me that we are due for a ~3 day downtrend to about 750-800 before turning around again to who knows where (sentiment pump to new ATH?). Note that is the worst kind of speculation -- one based on physics, which is essentially the universal opposite of emotion |
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excellent recap oda.krell. appreciated.
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People always wanted it and always will.
I'd like to point out that this is not true. Otherwise I have no stake in this argument. /leave |
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