 Downtrend still intact until Bitcoin price breaks above 9.5kish and most importantly 10.5k to create a higher high compared to previous high (10.5k in October 2019 and February 2020). Simple strategy here: short the market and set a stop loss at 10.7k, take profit at 3.5k. That's a nice "risk vs. reward" strategy. Or... wait until end of May to see if Bitcoin price breaks the downtrend above 9.5k, then 10.5k and decide accordingly. My opinion is if we see a price above 10.5k this year, 20k will be very quickly reached. However, if we are rejected again, we might see a lower low compared to previous low (3.7k), which means 3k area, maybe even below. Buying right now at 9.2k is gambling. Again my opinion. And by the way this week's rally is very similar to what we saw in February when Bitcoin price rallied from 9k to 10.5k. Hmmm... Best of luck!  |
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Personally don't think the halvening will have any effect for this year, but regardless I would suggest to keep it very simple. That is the important price, that would change the trend dramatically (higher high). Everything else between current price (7.3k) and this resistance at 10.5k is not substantial. I personally didn't do any trading since January, the current area is very difficult to read. When I say trading it's usually to get between 10% to 30% profit. |
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I would agree, however, with increasing the threshold from Junior member from 1 merit to 10 merit. It is still too easy for spammers and account farmers to beg, buy, trade, use alts, or plagiarize their way to single merit and then start signature spamming for some meaningless altcoin. I'd also agree with removing airdropped merit for the same reason.
Now we're getting somewhere  About removing the airdropped merits I'm with you, if you want to start a riot. Of course, if we take Bossian's exploits of the merit system as being granted, even these 10 merits seem too few. But it could me a start. For the lulz, let's remember how Bossian " hacked" the system: Merits are extremely overrated and useless (my opinion) but since I see quite many folks here begging for merits, today I will give you the best advice ever. Finally you will get your 10 merits within a week (guaranteed)!! Pretty simple. Visit this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.510540This thread is very active and many drunk people post daily. Many of them have unlimited smerits to give to others. 1/ write ONLY optimistic predictions (the crazier the better). For example: if you think BTC price will be 15k next month, write 75k instead. 2/ posts do not need to be constructive or smart, keep it very simple but extremely BULLISH (key word here) so you can have more success. 3/ ost GIF or a meme, some funny stuff, or again some very bullish stuff. A meme or GIF #TOTHEMOON can be very effective. 4/ the easier to understand, the better. And the shorter the better. Remember this is 2019: short attention span era. 5/ post more during drinking time (typically Friday and Saturday night, but I guess Thursday also works). Many people tend to be more generous when drinking. And in the end, a very precious information: if you are smart enough you will do good (maybe smart is not the appropriate word but you get the point).
I really don't see what would this forum gain from increasing merit and activity requirement 2x. Maybe avoid such situations as thoroughly explained by Bossian? But of course, not 2x. good memories this thread. Forgot about it. I didn't "hack" the system though, just observed the forum and aside my personal case I saw many other users getting merits for a post that, in a perfect world, should never get a merit. The ones to blame are clearly the merit sources though. The thread I pinpointed above ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.510540 ) is a big joke. |
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Yes, it *has* been that bad ever since the '08 financial crisis: A complete zombie economy hanging by a string.
Eh, we're merely back to 2018 levels. It needs to fall a LOT more to hit 2008 values. It's nice to remain optimistic but frankly all signs point to a financial and economical breakdown much harder than 2008. I remember 2008 well, and it will feel like heaven compared to 2020. I am not talking about anything related to Bitcoin but many will rush to withdraw fiat, I fear some banks will bankrupt in Europe. Asia will probably suffer less compared to the West. |
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Usually the FOMO phase is during a big bullish run, that's not at all the current situation. Buying now is probably a smart move as a long term investment, I wouldn't call it a FOMO decision.
I agree. However, how much time for a long term investment do you believe this is leading too? I believe we are going straight to zero in less than a month, and then a vaccine will be released for coronavirus in six months (the vaccine already exists, btw). After that, the price will tank on sub-1000 levels for two years, because there will be few buyers left. It will take five years to arrive at 8k, and maybe six years to arrive at 10k. I have buy orders in the three-digits area, and spare money left. I never go all-in because I'm not a "believer". In the two-digits area we will have the opportunity to buy dozens of coins. Mempool already dropped to zero for a short time: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-mempool-briefly-drops-to-zero-on-blockchaincomI was about the post Masterluc's new prediction, thanks Mindtrust for doing so. Coincidentally it also matches somehow sbgett prediction of a 2.5k price beginning of next year. We will see. Regarding your post Fabio, it's hard to find the bottom, but I am "betting" on another bubble someday. That's what I am interested in convenient situation for me now as I sold 95% of my Bitcoin assets. Everything I write here is without any emotion (and that is important). Now if Masterluc's prediction is correct, that absolutely sucks since 1.8k is a lower low compared to 3k (January 2019). The best is to sit and watch, and wait for a signal that this ugly trend started mi-December 2017 is finally over. My intuition is that we will need to wait for 2024 or further to see a new ATH (of course it's possible we never see such thing). |
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Honestly it looks like 3.5k is almost a sure thing now, lower high after lower high, the question now is do we see a lower low compared to January 2019 (3k)?
I tend to believe it is entirely possible. We will definitely see 6.5k again but probably not this year.
Even 1k-2k area is something we could see again. The good news is there will be another bubble in the future. Nothing better than Bitcoin to make 500%-1000% profits.
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Masterluc used to work a lot using triangles, well there is this one since 2017, quite a scary one.
Technically I am aware Bitcoin price went below 5k this week but for a very short time, no consolidation between 3.8k and 5k observed (yet) so I consider we are still inside the triangle.
Wonder what Masterluc would make of this.
His emphasis appears to be on the weekly 200 SMA. Since he considered the 200 SMA tests in 2015 as holding, I can only assume the important thing is closing (the weekly candle) near or above it. Wicks should be fine. The price needs to close above $5,500 and preferably would create some distance above it. Otherwise he predicts a "very bearish breakdown" which I would more or less agree with:  Well, if Masterluc is right, that's it folks. "Very bearish breakdown" probably means 3.5k at best. If we see 2.Xk again it probably means we could head to 1k too. Crazy to think, but 1k is the most important price in Bitcoin history, it was the top of the 2013 bubble, and overall Bitcoin price stayed below 1k for most of its history. Not getting carried away of course but seeing 1k area is a possibility, and that would be a fantastic price to buy a lot of coins IMO. |
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The 200-week MA is at $5,500 and we are currently trading near $5,300. If we close here, it might be "close enough" assuming a recovery is still coming.
I think the same. I am still bearish but could be wrong (nobody is perfect), but I would wait to buy around 6.5k instead of 5.5k. Not a big loss in the big picture assuming we see a new ATH (and I sold at 8.8k anyway minus the infamous 0.05 because I have to respect LFC views in this matter). |
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Masterluc used to work a lot using triangles, well there is this one since 2017, quite a scary one. Technically I am aware Bitcoin price went below 5k this week but for a very short time, no consolidation between 3.8k and 5k observed (yet) so I consider we are still inside the triangle. Wonder what Masterluc would make of this.  |
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Very quiet day at work today so I had a read at the first 25 pages. Epic post below:  December 4, 2013, Bitcoin around 1k USD, and next month would start to fall, until 2015 when it will trade around 200 USD. If Masterluc was back in 2016, price started around 400 USD... and the 2017 run we all know  Also notable points from these 2013 posts: people seem to be much less emotionally involved and much more tolerant towards bearish opinions. This is 2020, you cannot post bearish opinions without being called dumb or retarded, or both. That's the current era we are living in. How times have changed...  This was epic https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.500 masterluc sold exactly at the top of the 2013 bubble, amazing. |
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Yes, I've sold 3 coins at 5500 today
And what are your plans now? Leave for good? Come back another day and buy back in lower? If you're considering timing it that has plenty of space for it to go wrong. If you're gone for good then I hope you made a nice profit. He didn't reply. He might be very busy calling his/her exchange/bank to cancel his/her wire transfer, and trying to get all his fiat back to his/her exchange account, and buy Bitcoin again. Hahaha. The path to FOMO.  Usually the FOMO phase is during a big bullish run, that's not at all the current situation. Buying now is probably a smart move as a long term investment, I wouldn't call it a FOMO decision.
The volume on Bitstamp yesterday wasn't that amazing, although I feel like we're warming up for a bottom, and perhaps it's happened already.
Bitcoin price should navigate between the 3.5k range and 6.4k range for a while. In the long term I am pretty sure we will test the 6.4k resistance again, in the short term wouldn't be surprised to see the 3.5k support tested too. Second semester of 2019 we saw the price stay for a while between 6.4k and 10.5k, now we are in 3.5k - 6.4k. I am very curious to see how Bitcoin price will react if we go near 6.4k. If we break above then it's easy money until 8-9k (lower high compared to 10.5k). My opinion. |
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To keep things very simple, we had:
-December 2017: all time high 19.5k
-January 2019: low @ circa 3k
-June 2019: lower high @ 13.7k
-December 2019: higher low @ 6.4k
-February 2020: lower high @ 10.5k (very crucial price, the bulls will buy massively if we break above)
-March 2020: lower low 4k compared to December 2019, but higher low compared to January 2019
What is worrying in this trend is the constant lower highs (19.5k - 13.7k - 10.5k), this also means we should see at least another bounce (which would be a lower high again) at some stage, around 6.4k at least.
If I could invest big money (sadly my money is stuck at Epayments right now) I would buy a lot of Bitcoin to sell at 6.4k eventually (conservative approach).
What I also think is possible is to see a lower low compared to January 2019 which would mean 1k to 2.5k area (scary but possible). But if you are mentally strong it doesn't matter, we should see 6.4k again.
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A "conversation" (if we can call that) with a guy on Twitter just 40 days ago.
Being so emotionally involved and so disrespectful to opposite opinions will get you burned many times.
Bright side: seek for these kinds of folks on Twitter and other social networks, see what they say and just do the opposite. You will make money, guaranteed.
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The best advice in the post was choosing the method that works for you. Every trader and investor have different way of handling risks. If you don't have the stomach to handle price volatility, you can choose to become a long term holder instead. If you don't have the patience for that and you can manage your emotion well, maybe you are suited to become a trader.
Question to Bossian, does having a deep pocket or not matter in choosing which method to use?
Not sure. But if you have a small pocket, daily trading must be a little exhausting and discouraging, results will be very slow to add up. Usually small pockets like long term investments, they like to sit for 5 or 10 years, wait and hope to see a X10 or X20 profit. With daily trading, even with a big leverage it's hard work to get such profit. |
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Expecting a bullish run after today's mess is very bold. I wouldn't make such a call. Important fact: Bitcoin was in a bullish trend before the two previous halvenings. This is clearly not the case right now. So of course, we need to see 10.5k and break above, but right now this seems almost impossible for this year. I wouldn't expect any bullish run caused by the halvening before year 2022. The market is suffering right now. Also, I can share some predictions by u.today https://u.today/bitcoin-btc-price-prediction-is-5500-the-bottom their predictions proved to be correct more often than not.
On a larger time frame, Bitcoin has tested the levels it reached 10 months ago. Currently, sellers are missing the liquidity to push the price further. Furthermore, because the decrease was particularly sharp, today's decline is not the start of a correction. From a technical perspective, if Bitcoin can remain above $6,000, buyers will have opportunities they need to get the price to $7,000 by the end of March.
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I forgot if it was you but someone on this forum posted that there was no correlation. He explained that we saw the same king in the mobile phones industry with trends following the same patterns but being totally unrelated. What I noticed is that before the spike happened just at the halvening, this time it happened a few months before, so I wouldn't draw any conclusion yet. |
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New odds for year 2020. Bitcoin Closing Price (December 31): $1000 - $4999.99 @ 6.0 $5000 - $7499.99 @ 5.6 $7500 - $9999.99 @ 6.5 $10000 - $14999.99 @ 6.2 $15000 - $19999.99 @ 11.0 Above $20000 @ 7.6 ...... Place your bets |
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This was a good example of how mass-media can fuel the hype and actively participate in the creation of a bubble leading to terrible losses and harming crypto environment.
In TV, many non-crypto oriented websites we kept constant inflow of how great bitcoin is, greatest investment in history...and as such unfortunately it made thousands of people looking for easy and cheap investment to put their savings in BTC close to the peak of the bubble. People who knew nothing about blockchain and never heard about BTC before.
Hell, even taxi drivers at 3 AM were so overenthusiastic about BTC.
This is why ATH of 2017 was beyond reasonable expectations.
And in our eyes, this 2017 run resulted in strengthening the whales - who literally could make a fortune, and then slowly in 2018 and beginning of 2019 could hoard their portfolios - and the panic and crypto winter made this job easy.
Your post was interesting, I am bumping this after today's unusual patterns. Wondering if the media have anything to do with it, or simply big investors? Today's situation reminds me late September 2019 when Bitcoin price went from 7.5k to 9k very quickly, but this time it's an opposite move.  For me 6.4k support was key, but I cannot explain how we went from 7.5k to 6.5k that quickly. |
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I hope people can stand back and realize how good January and February were. This topic is a proof of that. 8k was achieved relatively easily. From 8k we reached 9k easily too (I personally sold at 9k and missed the 10k area but who cares? A profit is still a profit).  With what's happening today with Bitcoin going below 6.4k, I wouldn't take any quick decision. It's quite simple to make money with Bitcoin swing trading but I prefer to avoid these periods of quick price action. Too much emotion in the market right now. |
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Most people on this forum are long term holders (correct me if I am wrong). I wouldn't recommend anyone intro long term investing to try to place trades, or if you do learn how to do it, study the vocabulary, learn how to understand charts. Choose one of the three and become good at it. Daily trading is extremely difficult. Basically you buy at 6k and hope to sell at 6.1k with a 25X leverage. You need a stop loss, it is very dangerous. Swing trading is buying near supports and selling near resistance, you can hold for 1 month, or 3 months, sometimes 6 months (my personal favorite). Long term investment is what most people do here, buy Bitcoin and hope to make a profit in 2 or 3 years from now (or further than that). For this you need a very clear and deep look at the fundamentals to make a smart decision. Not as easy as it seems. |
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