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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 940446 times)
astralhash
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December 05, 2013, 10:06:05 AM
 #501

Does this mean down we go then?
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masterluc
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December 05, 2013, 10:08:32 AM
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 #502

3500 CNY (prev low) - and definitely yes.

lucas.sev
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December 05, 2013, 10:43:02 AM
 #503

3500 CNY (prev low) - and definitely yes.

bulltrap then?
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December 05, 2013, 10:59:00 AM
 #504

Well done Lucif, calling tops twice is pretty impressive.

Im not so convinced that this is going to be a long term drop, but even so if we go down 50% before heading back up thats great for you.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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December 05, 2013, 11:09:46 AM
 #505

There is still a chance this is not major top, but I really don't like china picture. They broke almost all templates of growing bubble.

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December 05, 2013, 11:22:41 AM
 #506

Well done Lucif, calling tops twice is pretty impressive.

Im not so convinced that this is going to be a long term drop, but even so if we go down 50% before heading back up thats great for you.

How come everybody thinks that if we go down, we will go back up almost immediately?
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December 05, 2013, 11:24:10 AM
 #507

There is still a chance this is not major top, but I really don't like china picture. They broke almost all templates of growing bubble.


I don't think you would be considered crazy to call this the big one. We may finish the day under $400 let's see what happens but two major sell offs at or near $1200 could very well signify the top.


With all the back and forth if this ends up under $900 I will say this is going to get very ugly indeed.


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December 05, 2013, 11:24:46 AM
 #508

No bitcoiner with half a brain gives a shit about what the authorities say about BTC. Speculators are just selling to buy back lower.

Bitcoin was *designed* to be illegal, and to be resilient to authorities actions.

Keep 'em coming ;)

For someone as informed as you (and you usually are), that's a pretty shallow statement. Bitcoin is in many way not "designed to be illegal".

Sure, it gives you (more or less) complete freedom to transfer wealth *to whoemever you want to, whenever you want to* (which includes illegal activity), but it also gives government agencies the ability to track you down and punish you (e.g. through the fiat/BTC link via exchanges).

Just to see how hard it is to stay fully anonymous, look at the sheepmarket thief/ves being chased through half the ecosystem's tumblers :P (but you know all of this).

So in summary: you can do illegal stuff with BTC, sure. But it's far from certain you will *get away with it*, which dampens the freedom part quite a bit.

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JustAnotherSheep
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December 05, 2013, 11:37:53 AM
 #509

Does this look like Bitcoin cares about Bearish wedges?

Yes =) Looks like this one got a shot.

I think that the Chinese authorities just played with us this time - they are testing how much control they can have over bitcoin. And they chose a point where a correction was easy to cause.
I agree, I doubt it's a coincidence they did this in a bearish wedge + double top.

Maybe some higher-up Chinese is a prospective whale, looking to buy in low. Doesn't make sense that they'd do it just to fuck shit up.

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
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December 05, 2013, 11:52:37 AM
 #510

No bitcoiner with half a brain gives a shit about what the authorities say about BTC. Speculators are just selling to buy back lower.

Bitcoin was *designed* to be illegal, and to be resilient to authorities actions.

Keep 'em coming Wink

For someone as informed as you (and you usually are), that's a pretty shallow statement. Bitcoin is in many way not "designed to be illegal".

Sure, it gives you (more or less) complete freedom to transfer wealth *to whoemever you want to, whenever you want to* (which includes illegal activity), but it also gives government agencies the ability to track you down and punish you (e.g. through the fiat/BTC link via exchanges).

Just to see how hard it is to stay fully anonymous, look at the sheepmarket thief/ves being chased through half the ecosystem's tumblers Tongue (but you know all of this).

So in summary: you can do illegal stuff with BTC, sure. But it's far from certain you will *get away with it*, which dampens the freedom part quite a bit.

Its clear in Satoshi's early work that the final purpose of this experiment is to replace "dishonest" fiat money. He already knew that if BTC was to replace government-issued currency, banning and harsh fight would happen - this is why he created a system resilient to any kind of banning, and that's why he chose to be anonymous (and he "chickened out" hard when Wikileaks accepted BTC donations, he thought BTC was not ready yet for that kind of attention - he was mistaken).

Summing up: Bitcoin was never intended to be an "investment" or a "virtual commodity" - it was meant to be an potentially world-changing experiment that could disrupt the world current power balances.

Real bitcoiners know this. Real bitcoiners know that the final purpose is not to exchange BTC->fiat, but BTC->goods+services.

Real bitcoiners know that a "bitcoin ban" is not only *expected*, but it is also *needed*. Firstly and foremost, because BTC has YET to prove it is resilient, and that's a final proof. Secondly, because it will just mean that Bitcoin is going in the direction it was designed to go.

This "scare tactics" just shake out weak hands that see in BTC just a way of making a quick (fiat) buck. I know that most of the old timers wouldn't dump their coins if there is a global ban - would you?

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December 05, 2013, 12:00:36 PM
 #511

I see pennant forming on Stamp and China.

edit: actually broken up on BTCChina now

I take it this is following the rule that bearish triangles become bullish in BTC?  Huh Or am I just drawing pennants in too short a timeframe?

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
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December 05, 2013, 12:10:01 PM
 #512

Its clear in Satoshi's early work that the final purpose of this experiment is to replace "dishonest" fiat money. He already knew that if BTC was to replace government-issued currency, banning and harsh fight would happen - this is why he created a system resilient to any kind of banning, and that's why he chose to be anonymous (and he "chickened out" hard when Wikileaks accepted BTC donations, he thought BTC was not ready yet for that kind of attention - he was mistaken).

Summing up: Bitcoin was never intended to be an "investment" or a "virtual commodity" - it was meant to be an potentially world-changing experiment that could disrupt the world current power balances.

Real bitcoiners know this. Real bitcoiners know that the final purpose is not to exchange BTC->fiat, but BTC->goods+services.

Real bitcoiners know that a "bitcoin ban" is not only *expected*, but it is also *needed*. Firstly and foremost, because BTC has YET to prove it is resilient, and that's a final proof. Secondly, because it will just mean that Bitcoin is going in the direction it was designed to go.

This "scare tactics" just shake out weak hands that see in BTC just a way of making a quick (fiat) buck. I know that most of the old timers wouldn't dump their coins if there is a global ban - would you?

This distinction between "real bitcoiners" and (presumably) the wrong kind of bitcoiners is too crude for my taste. And the question "would you dump all coins if BTC becomes illegal" is too simple as well (I wouldn't, at least not immediately, but I would keep my eyes open if there's an alternative showing up).

The "virtual commodity" and "absolutely free currency/store of value" aspects are, in my opinion, deeply intertwined. You won't get one without the other.

That's why my own mental representation of BTC resembles that of the Internet as a whole: largely unregulated, but not entirely so. Traceable and governed as far as agencies can, and if there's a strong interest (hur dur terrorism), they can do so quite effectively. Finally, ways to *circumvent* such monitoring and governing if you're technically savvy enough (Tor network comes to mind).

All in all: no. I simply disagree with your spirited and idealistic, but also somewhat naive analysis of what BTC is and will be. It won't be entirely unregulated. It won't replace dirty fiat in our live times. But it will give those who know how to make use of it new means of channeling wealth around regulations, just like the Internet gave you that ability with respect to "valueless" information.

SIDENOTE: sorry masterluc if this turns out too offtopic. let us know if we get on your nerves Cheesy

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure.
Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
accord01
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December 05, 2013, 12:16:04 PM
 #513

Is it me or is this going to look very ugly.  It is @ 950 stamp 1000 gox, and 5600 cny

this looks like a bogus top... what is the bottom?
John999
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December 05, 2013, 12:20:18 PM
 #514

Is it me or is this going to look very ugly.  It is @ 950 stamp 1000 gox, and 5600 cny

this looks like a bogus top... what is the bottom?

Bottomless pit?
Rampion
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December 05, 2013, 12:25:06 PM
 #515

Its clear in Satoshi's early work that the final purpose of this experiment is to replace "dishonest" fiat money. He already knew that if BTC was to replace government-issued currency, banning and harsh fight would happen - this is why he created a system resilient to any kind of banning, and that's why he chose to be anonymous (and he "chickened out" hard when Wikileaks accepted BTC donations, he thought BTC was not ready yet for that kind of attention - he was mistaken).

Summing up: Bitcoin was never intended to be an "investment" or a "virtual commodity" - it was meant to be an potentially world-changing experiment that could disrupt the world current power balances.

Real bitcoiners know this. Real bitcoiners know that the final purpose is not to exchange BTC->fiat, but BTC->goods+services.

Real bitcoiners know that a "bitcoin ban" is not only *expected*, but it is also *needed*. Firstly and foremost, because BTC has YET to prove it is resilient, and that's a final proof. Secondly, because it will just mean that Bitcoin is going in the direction it was designed to go.

This "scare tactics" just shake out weak hands that see in BTC just a way of making a quick (fiat) buck. I know that most of the old timers wouldn't dump their coins if there is a global ban - would you?

This distinction between "real bitcoiners" and (presumably) the wrong kind of bitcoiners is too crude for my taste. And the question "would you dump all coins if BTC becomes illegal" is too simple as well (I wouldn't, at least not immediately, but I would keep my eyes open if there's an alternative showing up).

The "virtual commodity" and "absolutely free currency/store of value" aspects are, in my opinion, deeply intertwined. You won't get one without the other.

That's why my own mental representation of BTC resembles that of the Internet as a whole: largely unregulated, but not entirely so. Traceable and governed as far as agencies can, and if there's a strong interest (hur dur terrorism), they can do so quite effectively. Finally, ways to *circumvent* such monitoring and governing if you're technically savvy enough (Tor network comes to mind).

All in all: no. I simply disagree with your spirited and idealistic, but also somewhat naive analysis of what BTC is and will be. It won't be entirely unregulated. It won't replace dirty fiat in our live times. But it will give those who know how to make use of it new means of channeling wealth around regulations, just like the Internet gave you that ability with respect to "valueless" information.

SIDENOTE: sorry masterluc if this turns out too offtopic. let us know if we get on your nerves Cheesy

I'm not saying what Bitcoin is or what it will be - I'm just stating what Bitcoin was designed to be. It's all in Satoshi's work, and it's a matter of fact.

As he originally conceived Bitcoin, its illegal by nature, as it is an attack to the current financial system.

Then, many things can happen: the Bitcoin Foundation can collude with Gov's and implement redlists and whatnot, or it may enter in a deflationary spiral, or maybe POW reveals itself unviable unless there is constant growth for eternity (which is physically unlikely). Summing up: I don't know what it will be, but I know what it was designed to be.

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December 05, 2013, 01:17:26 PM
 #516

update:




what is your point?
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December 05, 2013, 01:18:33 PM
 #517

green flag for the win.
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December 05, 2013, 02:05:40 PM
 #518


Do you normally communicate with people you don't know like that? What is your point? Huh? What is your point?

If you don't find anything of interest simply ignore it, you don't need to make an ass out of yourself by communicating with me by saying "what is your point".

Jog on.




See, your response was at least as rude as the question "What's your point".

You post a chart without any explanation, you get called out for it. That simple.


That said, I see your point about support turning resistance. However, I also point out that the market seems to reject anything below 850 (mtgox and bistamp). I take that as a pretty positive sign. I expect consolidation rather than increasing selling pressure, for now.

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure.
Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
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December 05, 2013, 02:31:23 PM
 #519

Had to go looking for a trend to make this bullish... Not a good sign, but possible. That support IS holding for now. Will have to wait and see. A Christmas high does fit my models for all markets, equities included. January-March will be a bad time for everything, though.


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December 05, 2013, 02:37:38 PM
 #520

Or Perhaps the start of a "triple top reversal"







Yes it coud be but I don't think it would fit with china chart
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