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so in 4 months the eta dropped by a month? Hmmm. if we extrapolate that then we are looking at maybe March of 2016? March of 2016 = 26 months... so 26/4 = 6.5 months . 9/2016 - 6.5 months = around march of 2016
Only if the hash rate continues to grow exponentially, but at some point in the near future we may see the hash rate stabilize or even drop if mining becomes unprofitable. |
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Another reason stability is good is because less time is spent on price speculation which leaves more time to focus on innovating and building Bitcoin businesses/infrastructure.
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IMO, 2014 will be a year of relative stability in Bitcoin compared to the rollercoaster ride of last year. I think we will see long periods of sideways price action (like in 2012) and an end of year price between $1,500 - $2,000 per BTC.
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How about:
10 xBT = 10 bitcoins
10 mBT = 10 millibits
10 uBT = 10 microbits
As simple as possible.
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Looks good. Nice and simple.
Maybe you could add some faint clouds in the background to make it look as if it's shooting into the sky.
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It's not me bringing that up though. Anyway, here is yet another version, this time log scale and directly laying them on top of each other.  The basic elements are all at the same ratios, I don't know if it is possible to improve upon this, it might be that there is a different timescale ratio bear/vs bull market. My first version was matched against the bull market correlation this time I looked for the bear market correlation. I'm now waiting for some EW Guy to enlighten us.  Your 2011 chart begins on May 24, 2011 when the price was at $7. The 2011 bull market began on April 11, 2011 when the price was around 70 cents. Therefore your 2011 chart is missing the initial 10x increase in price. Try again. |
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Okay!! Today I received my money transfer from btc24! wohoooo It came from Simons german account. I hope the others are as lucky as me for getting their funds back, but at least there is hope and proof that they do try their best & keep their word (if you neglect the definition of "week"  ) Patience, and all will be ok! My sweet fiat has come home! Finally I can buy some BTC again!
Congratulations to both of you! Hopefully the rest of us won't have to wait much longer. |
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yeah, btc holders win twice
when the site was closed btc was about 50-60 EUR , now 105 , so value doubled
while fiat holders could not buy btc at low price and perhaps all fiat will be lost ,
so not only 100% vs 0% btc/ fiat, insted 200% vs 0%
nice, i can congratulate for this to the site owner
+1 Couldn't agree more. I had sold BTC the day before the site went down, expecting to be able to buy back lower. The site closed just 2 hours before the crash to my buy price target of 40-50 EUR. In other words, had the site remained open for just 2 hours longer, I would have BTC (bought for less than half the current price) in my account instead of fiat, while many of those with BTC would have probably ended up with fiat after panic selling on the dip. The fiat holders are certainly the ones left holding the bag in this case and we could be waiting a while to get our money back. Getting back less than what I'm owed or possibly nothing at all will only add insult to injury  |
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Bitcoin will be still used even without banks. A lot of people who buy drugs on SR pay cash for bitcoins, no bank involved. Or a migrant worker wanting to send money home can exchange cash for bitcoins and send those bitcoins home avoiding WU fees or slow bank transfers.
So no, bitcoins will not be worth $0.00 in the highly unlikely event that all banks accounts of all exchanges were to be closed at the same time. New exchanges will pop up (perhaps in offshore locations) to fill the void. You'd also still have other options such as Liberty Reserve, OK Pay, Linden Dollars etc to exchange your coins as well as local bitcoins.
So edit your OP and quit the BS already.
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Everybody is expecting to catch another falling knife, and profit from the differential when it goes back up, that's why all the bids are there. That doesn't mean the fundamental problem with the bubble (irrational overvaluation) has disappeared. If price steadily drops over the next few weeks and the promised influx of buyers fails to materialize, which I think they will, the bid wall will vanish.
If you look at the google trends data, the interest peak becomes more and more clear a thing of the past, so there's nothing to salvage the situation short of a rapid valuation over 250$, so that reporters and news outlets are interested in the story again and dumb money starts flowing again.
So you're saying it's either a rapid shoot in price back over $250 or a slow drop in price over weeks/months down to new lows. And anything in between is impossible? So the price stabilizing between $90-$110 for a month or two followed by a gradual increase to $150 by the end of the year is impossible? |
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Huge amounts of money recently got dumped into BTC at a chance to make a quick profit, and now people are racing to withdraw their money cause the exchangers are closing down.
Nice username.  |
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Here's what I think:
The DDOS was done by a person/group to cause panic and crash the price so they could buy up coins on the cheap. Now that they have bought their coins the DDOS's have stopped.
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Thanks for those last bullish posts guys, I needed to get some reassurance of were we are in the bubble chart.
So we are still in the denial phase? Way to go. It has to feel like taking money from little boys for the big hands.
Sorry it's the bears that are in denial right now. They still think they will be able to buy at $30. How sad. |
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This bubble burst in 5 days instead of 5 months. ...
My numbers would be that $100 is the new $5 for the following months. Bubble bursting follows a double exponential rate of decay, which is the opposite of what happened in the run up. Post peak, one would expect the price halving time to increase - thus the first halving from 266 down to 133, then the second very quickly down to 66.5. In contrast to your view, I think that the having time to 33.25 will be some weeks away - if the rate of decline slows down as in a typical bubble collapse. What is your basis for the growth rate of the bitcoin economy? A linear regression of the log closing price on Mt. Gox starting in 2010 to present suggests a bitcoin economy growth rate of 4.8x annually = 580%. That is a fantastic growth rate, but the market gets ahead of that when doubling several times in a few months. The bid depth on the Mt. Gox order book hit an all time high today supporting current prices. This was not the case during the 2011 crash (bid depth back then was almost non-existent). |
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I remember the 2011 crash. The bid depth was almost non-existent back then. All it took was a dump of 20,000 btc to drop the price by 50%. That's why the price crashed so far (there were hardly any buyers). Currently it would take a dump of 200,000 btc to drop the price 50%. Today, the bid depth hit an all time high, suggesting $50 was the bottom.
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You are so right.I think we all should.And i think it will be not be difficult to find a really serious layer/s who will be compensated by a percentage from the money they manage to get back.We are talking big numbers here.
Indeed. We're talking as much as 10 MILLION EURO at stake here (€5.5 million in the banks and I'm guessing €4.5 million worth of bitcoins at current price). This would dwarf even the Pirate scam last year. |
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I'm getting impatient with Simon. I have a 5-figure EUR balance stuck in his exchange. He should update us ASAP even if there is not much new news to give. I am already considering LEGAL action against him.
Simon, if you are reading this, do the right thing and return our money! This is all we ask, nothing more. It will save you A LOT of stress, hassle, jail time etc...
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True, but I've been around since 2011 and it seems this happens every year in bitcoin. I remember the mybitcoin scam, mt. gox hack, tradehill closing, mt. gox uk bank account & hong kong bank account closed, bitcoinica scam, intersango became untrustworthy, linode theft, WBX exchange lost coins, pirate scam, btc-e hack, bitfloor hack, cryptoxchange scam and there's probably more I'm haven't metioned here. Yet despite all this bitcoin is still here and trading over $90. But it does suck for those who lose money. I have a 5-figure EUR amount stuck with Bitcoin24 but hopeful I will get it back. Right, but does the Dollar, Euro etc have all this. You don't get mainstream banks endlessly reporting hacks and break ins. The Bitcoin sector needs to sharpen up and get serious. All these cock ups just damage the chances of acceptance for Bitcoin amongst the general public. I agree with you. But the way I see it Bitcoin is still the Wild West even today and sh*t happens. Bitcoin is still too small for the cockups of the last week to have any lasting affect on general public perception. These incidents will likely pass. Hopefully more serious exchanges pop up in the near future to replace bitfloor and bitcoin24. I actually hope Simon will continue with Bitcoin24 2.0 having learned from his mistakes (I would continue using his exchange). Wild West is a good description. But the cock ups are big for those of us directly affected by it. I hope this incident will "pass" ie that we get our money back. All this having to chase down snippets of information on IRC, reddit and Fbook is rather like trying to find out the location of the next impromtu techno rave or something. And because the info is not published on his own site no-one can be sure or not if it really is from him... But then, the guy is a clubbing DJ...that's how things are done. I'm affected by it and I am not happy at all about it. Lucky I still have a good chunk of bitcoins in my cold wallet so it's not the end of the world for me, but it still sucks. I think Simon should update us ASAP as I am starting to lose patience with him and I am already considering LEGAL action against him if he doesn't update us soon. |
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True, but I've been around since 2011 and it seems this happens every year in bitcoin. I remember the mybitcoin scam, mt. gox hack, tradehill closing, mt. gox uk bank account & hong kong bank account closed, bitcoinica scam, intersango became untrustworthy, linode theft, WBX exchange lost coins, pirate scam, btc-e hack, bitfloor hack, cryptoxchange scam and there's probably more I'm haven't metioned here. Yet despite all this bitcoin is still here and trading over $90. But it does suck for those who lose money. I have a 5-figure EUR amount stuck with Bitcoin24 but hopeful I will get it back. Right, but does the Dollar, Euro etc have all this. You don't get mainstream banks endlessly reporting hacks and break ins. The Bitcoin sector needs to sharpen up and get serious. All these cock ups just damage the chances of acceptance for Bitcoin amongst the general public. I agree with you. But the way I see it Bitcoin is still the Wild West even today and sh*t happens. Bitcoin is still too small for the cockups of the last week to have any lasting affect on general public perception. These incidents will likely pass. More serious exchanges are coming in the near future (ie. Tradehill, CoinLab) to replace bitfloor and bitcoin24. I actually hope Simon will continue with Bitcoin24 2.0 having learned from his mistakes (I would continue using his exchange). |
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EDIT:
If you are reading this Simon, please update us ASAP. You are holding millions of our money, we at least deserve a daily update!
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