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61  Economy / Speculation / Re: Price Prediction 2015 ฿ on: January 19, 2015, 07:59:40 PM
Quote
$1 - $10   - 12 (8.5%)
$10 - $50   - 10 (7%)
$50 - $100   - 12 (8.5%)
$100 - $200   - 5 (3.5%)
$200 - $300   - 5 (3.5%)
$300 - $500   - 21 (14.8%)
$500 - $1000   - 22 (15.5%)
$1000+   - 55 (38.7%)javascript:void(0);
Total Voters: 142

Unbelievable that people still think it will rise again to 300-500, let alone the 1000+ range. It tells us how many people here are either underwater or desillusionized by everything that has happened so far. Looks like the shorters will be able to make off more money from the 70% suckers again. Why do people never learn; it really is beyond me.

indeed, too many people too bullish. too many people still holding on to their bitcoins.

unless bulls push it soon above 300$, a severe sell off in a wash-out style is probably needed


No way, you need to at least dump to $150 to trigger stop losses and at least dump to $100 to trigger another panic sale. With short swap at historical high already, I doubt bears can achieve any selloff from now on.

Besides, only retail investors were panic in the recent crash. All addresses holding more than 100K coins didn't sell at all recently. That is a vote of confidence from largest stakeholders.
62  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Real Reason Of Bitcoin’s Descent, Revealed on: January 17, 2015, 03:56:15 AM
The price of Bitcoin sure has been hit hard, and the ripple effect has already blown up across the community. With an ever-faster growing community of people fascinated by the technology, why has the price shown otherwise? Users are grumbling and complaining waiting for the price to rise to what it was, but they aren’t taking the step back to think about the factors that pushed the price back down.

http://www.btcfeed.net/speculation/real-reason-bitcoins-descent-revealed/

One of the best articles I have read in awhile.

No, it is manipulation of exchanges. Some exchanges just want to "get rich quick".

When the majority of retail investors go long, exchanges with insider information will go short and trigger margin calls.

When the majority of retail investors go short, exchanges with insider information will go long and trigger short squeeze.

I guarantee you they are doing this and they are the real whales.
63  Economy / Speculation / Re: New money decides the movement of price on: January 17, 2015, 03:53:10 AM
I own some Bitcoin ATM's and I can tell you my transactions are up 500% today.   Just wait until all those people get their bank accounts verified on Coinbase next week.

You answered a million dollar question for us. Hope your statistic is not biased.
64  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 16, 2015, 11:09:21 PM
I think most 1k bitcoin + holders don't see new lows possible any more, and a short sell very dangerous (if they've held before 2014)


This'll be a big fight either way, don't expect new lows, or even below 200 for very long without huge volumes.

Anybody with a margin short right now must be crazy.



What is "bullburn"?

Btw. Bulls are Bulls because they are bulls. And if you are ba true bull you will stay as a bull forever.

Those short sells must be burning too right? Cool

To shake out people who bought between $160-$200, bears at least need to dump to $150 to trigger stop losses and further dump to below $100 to trigger some additional panic sale.

But, does the benefits of dumping overweights the costs of dumping at this point?

And how much bitcoins can bears borrow now to dump?

And don't forget the whale, it would definitely squeeze the shorts, if such move brings more profit. Unless the whale is ideological against bitcoin without any consideration of profit.
65  Economy / Speculation / New money decides the movement of price on: January 16, 2015, 10:58:51 PM
Existing bulls and bears are just well matched in strength at the moment. Bulls don't dare to add too much long in the fear of another 30K sell order. Bears don't dare to open new shorts due to the historical high swap ratio (i.e. potential short squeeze).

Now the balance can only be broken by the third force, the new money.

if all those crash related, MK related or miami meeting related news casted by CNBC, Bloomberg, WSJ, FT and the Economist could draw mainstream eyeballs and new money in, then bulls win.

If those news fails to attract new money, then bears win.

I personally believe new money will come in, judging by the increasing searches of "bitcoin" on google and the news that some high-net-worth people are interested in bitcoins (coindesk article 2 days ago).
66  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bye Bye to sub-$200 cheap coins on: January 16, 2015, 09:19:19 PM

Indeed, ivyleague1985, what if you say "Bye Bye to sub-$20 cheap coins" later?

Suggesting a bottom at $800, 700, 600, 500, 400, 300 is an evil.

But when a bottom is formed in $16x and the level of $200 holds after two bear attacks, it is REASONABLE to call a bottom and suggest a buy.

In comparison, suggesting people to short at $800, 700, 600, 500, 400, 300 is wise.

But suggesting people to short from $160-200 to $0 is evil, greedy and scamming.

Making your font BOLD or in RED won't change the fact.

Did you see how spring works in elementary school? Yes, spring compresses and then resilience makes it JUMP. So is the price.

And don't forget, you pay interests to short. Either the price crashes again in short term, or you will continue to pay for it. While, bulls can be much more patient than you, because they pay nothing to keep the coins. Just one spike, they will catch you.

To shake new buyers out who just bought around 160-200, you need to at least push the price to $150 for stop loss and $100 for another panic sale. Ask yourself, can you achieve that? And how many coins can you borrow to achieve that?

Anyway, good lucks to you, bold font guy.

another stable price then another dump, this will be the third already

350, 280 and 210

Inertia thinking always leads one to believe that history will repeat itself. But the history of bitcoin contains more surprises than repetition.
67  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bye Bye to sub-$200 cheap coins on: January 16, 2015, 09:02:43 PM

Indeed, ivyleague1985, what if you say "Bye Bye to sub-$20 cheap coins" later?

Suggesting a bottom at $800, 700, 600, 500, 400, 300 is an evil.

But when a bottom is formed in $16x and the level of $200 holds after two bear attacks, it is REASONABLE to call a bottom and suggest a buy.

In comparison, suggesting people to short at $800, 700, 600, 500, 400, 300 is wise.

But suggesting people to short from $160-200 to $0 is evil, greedy and scamming.

Making your font BOLD or in RED won't change the fact.

Did you see how spring works in elementary school? Yes, spring compresses and then resilience makes it JUMP. So is the price.

And don't forget, you pay interests to short. Either the price crashes again in short term, or you will continue to pay for it. While, bulls can be much more patient than you, because they pay nothing to keep the coins. Just one spike, they will catch you.

To shake out new buyers who just bought around 160-200, you need to at least push the price to $150 for stop losses and to sub-$100 for another panic sale. Ask yourself, can you achieve that? And how many coins can you borrow to achieve that?

Anyway, good lucks to you, bold font guy.
68  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 16, 2015, 08:40:20 PM
What's the most bullish thing imaginable? I would like some brainstorming please.

miami leaks show that the manbearwhale is the winkle etf and is indeed accumulating big time for all the secret investors. the bulls manage to push the price back in the high 200$ area which will create the biggest trendreversal hammer known to mankind. manbearwhale soon aka willi2.0 has finally accumulated enough and is now pumping with his remaining profits causing a lot of panic buying,  an epic short squeeze and 2000 more pages of rocket and train pix n stuff. Kiss

A good conspiracy theory. The evil wall street always accumulates during panic sale.

We see this in 2008 lehman crisis, in 2011 euro debt crisis, etc.

And they won't tell you until they have done the shopping.

Massive wealth creation of the wall street always follows massive wealth destruction of the others.
69  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 16, 2015, 06:45:07 PM
So WTF was the man in twitter talking about??? Nothing happened....yet

yeah whatsup with the fat Adam guy, anyone has news? Must be Miami conference related, right?

Why not just tweet the news yesterday? Probably because there is none.

Pay attention.

http://dailyhashrate.com/2015/01/16/adam-guerbuezs-big-news/

Lyft or Uber would announce Bitcoin support?

Making sense to me, coz these two are competing fiercely. Using bitcoin to do a free marketing is definitely no-brainer for any one of them.

If that is the case then it makes zero difference to the immediate future of anything other than a PR blip for them.

Not necessarily. The transaction fee from credit company is not a small cut for those two. Considering their thin profit sharing % from the drivers, it would be ideal for them to avoid the credit card fee.

I see some cost saving economies from this potential rumor.
70  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 16, 2015, 06:39:55 PM
So WTF was the man in twitter talking about??? Nothing happened....yet

yeah whatsup with the fat Adam guy, anyone has news? Must be Miami conference related, right?

Why not just tweet the news yesterday? Probably because there is none.

Pay attention.

http://dailyhashrate.com/2015/01/16/adam-guerbuezs-big-news/

Lyft or Uber would announce Bitcoin support?

Making sense to me, coz these two are competing fiercely. Using bitcoin to do a free marketing is definitely a no-brainer for any one of them.
71  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bye Bye to sub-$200 cheap coins on: January 16, 2015, 06:32:41 PM
It's frightening seeing the price (and your investment) plummet in value, but it's just as frightening selling it and watching bitcoin's price soar in value. I hate having to buy back at a loss. If we suddenly soar this wekend there will be bears buying back at a big loss.

You cannot believe how much people panic sold in the crash. I guess almost all weak hands who bought in 2014 were already shaken out. They must regret to death sooner or later. But that is the sympathetic reality of trading.
72  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bye Bye to sub-$200 cheap coins on: January 16, 2015, 06:17:47 PM
I have a feeling this weekend we are either going to plummet to new lows or hit a bull market

I am pretty sure it will go all the way up.

Just have some faith.
73  Economy / Speculation / Bye Bye to sub-$200 cheap coins on: January 16, 2015, 05:58:44 PM
Bears did three major attacks after the grand crash to $166 (bitfinex).

First tanks the price to $172, second tanks it to $197 and the recent one tanks it to $198.

Strength of the bear attacks are getting weaker and volume of bear attacks is shrinking. In addition, we see higher lows.

We may have to say bye bye to sub-$200 coins. Congrats to those sub-$200 purchases.
74  Economy / Speculation / Re: If Mark is not only DPR , but also Satoshi ? on: January 16, 2015, 04:10:47 PM
What your trollers do are nothing more than pouring dirty water onto a talented old man at ill.
75  Economy / Speculation / Re: If Mark is not only DPR , but also Satoshi ? on: January 16, 2015, 04:04:51 PM
First:
I know it sounds stupid , it's another of the 1 trillion theories about Satoshi but still.

Let's assume the story evolves , the fbi starts questioning mark more an more , pressuring him and he suddenly reveals he is Satoshi and proves it with the signed addresses.

Do you think it will have any impact on the price?
Myself , I doubt it.

First, most studies point out: there is a significant negative correlation between obesity and IQ.

Second, the fatty MK ruined two businesses within a short period of time.

Therefore, I highly doubt if he has any brain to be Satoshi at all.

Please stop posting useless thread like this. This is a speculation forum, not a weirdo talk forum.

First he ruined the business , he didn't lose money himself.
Have any proof that he lost money and that he is not sitting on 800k coins?
Until now he proved he is a scammer but not an idiot.



How could you expect an evil thirsty greedy fatty to conduct boring difficult exhausting brain-intensive research into algorithm and coding for years?

Not everyone can suffer the hardship, pain and life of being a researcher/scholar!

MK and Satoshi have totally different personalities.


Go and read a bit more into bitcoin

The code written by the "original" Satoshi was pretty poor and full of bugs.


Everyone knows that. I already said "Satoshi used to have a geek group who helped him debug and improve the algorithm."

His errors are acceptable for an old man like his age.

But his level of talent is still way beyond the level of MK.
76  Economy / Speculation / Re: If Mark is not only DPR , but also Satoshi ? on: January 16, 2015, 03:49:41 PM
MK and Satoshi have totally different personalities.

And both had nearly 1 mio BTC exchanged to DIRTY fiat. Genious! Invent a ponzi and laugh your ass off. Good job.

Satoshi earned the 1 mio BTC by his talent and hardworking. He deserves it!

MK earned the 1 mio BTC by scamming, cheating and stealing. He doesn't deserve it!

Don't equalize two different person just by their net worth. The ways of earning their money are more important.
77  Economy / Speculation / Re: If Mark is not only DPR , but also Satoshi ? on: January 16, 2015, 03:45:58 PM
MK and Satoshi have totally different personalities.

And both had nearly 1 mio BTC exchanged to DIRTY fiat. Genious! Invent a ponzi and laugh your ass off. Good job.

Don't change the core of the debate. We are debating if MK = Satoshi.

They are NOT the same person. Period.

Satoshi used to have a geek group who helped him debug and improve the algorithm. Many people personally knew him. So the speculation that "MK=Satoshi" is totally evidence less.
78  Economy / Speculation / Re: If Mark is not only DPR , but also Satoshi ? on: January 16, 2015, 03:33:35 PM
First:
I know it sounds stupid , it's another of the 1 trillion theories about Satoshi but still.

Let's assume the story evolves , the fbi starts questioning mark more an more , pressuring him and he suddenly reveals he is Satoshi and proves it with the signed addresses.

Do you think it will have any impact on the price?
Myself , I doubt it.

First, most studies point out: there is a significant negative correlation between obesity and IQ.

Second, the fatty MK ruined two businesses within a short period of time.

Therefore, I highly doubt if he has any brain to be Satoshi at all.

Please stop posting useless thread like this. This is a speculation forum, not a weirdo talk forum.

First he ruined the business , he didn't lose money himself.
Have any proof that he lost money and that he is not sitting on 800k coins?
Until now he proved he is a scammer but not an idiot.



How could you expect an evil thirsty greedy fatty to conduct boring difficult exhausting brain-intensive research into algorithm and coding for years?

Not everyone can suffer the hardship, pain and life of being a researcher/scholar!

MK and Satoshi have totally different personalities.
79  Economy / Speculation / Re: If Mark is not only DPR , but also Satoshi ? on: January 16, 2015, 03:05:15 PM
First:
I know it sounds stupid , it's another of the 1 trillion theories about Satoshi but still.

Let's assume the story evolves , the fbi starts questioning mark more an more , pressuring him and he suddenly reveals he is Satoshi and proves it with the signed addresses.

Do you think it will have any impact on the price?
Myself , I doubt it.

First, most studies point out: there is a significant negative correlation between obesity and IQ.

Second, the fatty MK ruined two businesses within a short period of time.

Therefore, I highly doubt if he has any brain to be Satoshi at all.

Please stop posting useless thread like this. This is a speculation forum, not a weirdo talk forum.
80  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 16, 2015, 12:16:06 AM
is anyone paying attention to the macroeconomic picture? The Swiss National Bank shocked world markets by removing it's peg to the Euro, causing it's value to skyrocket. Two systemic Greek banks are using an emergency liquidity tool at the ECB to try and prevent a bank run.  Oil Tanked and Gold spiked. This is 2008 all over again only worse this time.

How this will affect Bitcoin is anyone's guess, but I'm starting to think even my 2.5% margin long was way too premature.

Bank runs mean extreme DEFLATION of national currencies until the central banks ramp up the printing presses, start accepting used toilet paper as collateral and various other forms of counterfeiting.

Wealth is going to evaporate, credit is going to dry up and markets are going to crash with the exception of the safest government bonds (U.S., Swiss and maybe a few others).

I've warned many times for everyone to get their coins (and even fiat) off the exchanges if you aren't going to trade, but now I am saying it may soon be time to get your fiat out of the banks.  



 

I warned the same thing several days ago, telling them how a debt crisis could occur in Russian, Greece and spill over to the Euro zone. But I only received bashing.

Someone even registered a new account to bash me in red ink.

Another financial crisis is due in 1-2 months.

See the decline of oil price, see the decline of stock index, see the depleting of foreign reserves, see the turmoil in the foreign exchange market, etc...
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