Latest posts of: FairlayBTCPredictions

Trump has already signed an executive order against Obamacare but will he end Obamacare in 2017?

In one of his first official actions, new President Donald Trump signed an executive order late Friday that directed federal agencies to use their authority to relieve individual Americans, businesses, state governments and others from “burdens” placed on them by the Affordable Care Act, adopted by the term "Obamacare".

As Los Angeles Times writes, the Trump administration and its Republican allies in Congress billed the order as a first step in their push to repeal Obamacare. So, does this mean the new President has scrapped the 2010 healthcare law “on Day One,” as he once promised he would do? Or is this just more talk from the new President?

Will Trump end Obamacare in 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-trump-end-obamacare-in-2017/.

But even if Trump wants to do this, Obamacare cannot be repealed so easily. It can only be repealed by another law, which would require an act of Congress, not just an executive order from the President. That is why congressional Republicans are debating how to craft a new law that could supplant all or part of the one Obama signed in 2010.

So, Republican lawmakers have been struggling with how to fulfill their pledge to repeal the healthcare law, replace it with something else and preserve coverage for the more than 20 million people who rely on it. To do this, they will have to design a path to transition from the current Obamacare system to whatever they come up with.

But, can Trump and his administration do this while preventing the current system from collapsing? Also, can they do this before 2018? Also, note that in order for this Fairlay market to pass, it is enough for Obamacare to be renamed, not just ended. What is your opinion on this, or is it still too soon to predict what will Trump do?

La La Land won seven Golden Globe Awards last night but can it repeat that at the Oscars?

Till the last night only two films have won six Golden Globe Awards (One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest and Midnight Express), but last night that superlative changed as La La Land won the seven Golden Globe Awards. At the same time this film directed by Damien Chazelle also won all the seven Golden Globes that it was nominated for.

But can La La Land repeat this at The Oscars?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Picture, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-picture/.

The 89th Academy Awards will take place on February 26, with nominations announced on January 24. Last night showed that it is not a surprise that Fairlay market gives La La Land 80% chances to win the Best Picture award. And it looks like that only Manchester by the Sea or Moonlight can stop La La Land from prevailing.

The Oscars 2017 - Best Director, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-picture/.

Things are almost the same in the Best Director category as Damien Chazelle, director of La La Land, is now given 81% chances at Fairlay. And Kenneth Lonergan, director of Manchester by the Sea, is the second favorite, while some think that Barry Jenkins could after all be awarded for creating Moonlight.

The Oscars 2016 - Best Actor, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actor/.

And if you think that La La Land will sweep The Oscars but you want bigger odds, then Best Actor and Best Actress are markets for you. Ryan Gosling, lead actor of La La Land, is given only 8% chances for winning the Best Actor Awards, as Casey Affleck for a lead role in Manchester by the Sea is the biggest favorite with 75% given.

The Oscars 2017 - Best Actress, Predict at Fairlay:
https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actress-1/.

While both Gosling and Affleck got Golden Globes for actors last night, Emma Stone for La La Land and Isabelle Huppert for Elle got Golden Globes for actresses. But which of them will win the Best Actress Award at Oscars, or could that be won by Natalie Portman for Jackie? Anyway, for either of them odds are huge at the moment.

So, Golden Globes are given but who are you favorites for The Oscars?

Bitcoin is going up, but where will it stop? At $850, $900, $1200?

Bitcoin finally passed the $800 value, for the first time since February 2014. And soon after breaking this "psychological barrier" it started going crazy and is currently trading at $827 (just a few minutes ago it was at $822). So, where will it stop?

Bitcoin to top 850 USD before January 1? Fairlay market gives this 57% chances.
Predict at https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-850-usd-before-january-1/.

Among other things, Chinese trading is a significant factor behind bitcoin's above the $800 mark. Trading volumes in China have been "extraordinary", with 10 million bitcoins traded on days in October and November. This has now subsided to a steady trading of around 3.5 million bitcoins a day.

Bitcoin to top 900 USD before January 1? Fairlay market gives this 24% chances.
Predict at https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-900-usd-before-january-1/.

"Ah I see what's happening. #Bitcoin short positions are getting crushed. Yep, we just may see $1K before the end of the year," is the kind of the comments going around on the current changes in price. But will Bitcoin go super high?

Bitcoin to top $1200 before March 2017? Fairlay market gives this 26% chances.
Predict at https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-1200-before-mar-2017/.

So, as it surpasses $800 for the first time in three years, this is surely a big day for Bitcoin. And as The Chinese yuan at the same time traded near its weakest level in eight years, could the following days, weeks, or even months make Bitcoin even stronger? Well, use plenty of Fairlay markets to make even more Bitcoins.

2017 Golden Globes: Who will win the main categories? La La Land, Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea?

On Monday morning, Don Cheadle, Laura Dern, and Anna Kendrick announced the nominees for the 74th Golden Globe Awards. The resulting list contained plenty of good news for La La Land, which led the pack with seven nominations; Moonlight, in second with six nods; and Manchester by the Sea, which scored five.

2017 Golden Globes - Best Film: Musical or Comedy
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/2017-golden-globes-best-film-musical-or-comedy/.

So, Damien Chazelle's movie La La Land is up for best musical or comedy film, while there are acting nominations for its stars Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling. Chazelle is up for best film director and it is also nominated for original screenplay, score and song. Thus, La La Land could be the biggest winner on January 8, 2017.

2017 Golden Globes - Best Film: Drama
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/2017-golden-globes-best-film-drama/.

But coming-of-age drama Moonlight is close behind with six nominations, including best drama film. Though, at the moment the first favorite to win the Golden Globe for Best Picture – Drama is Manchester by the Sea, movie about a caretaker who finds himself taking in his teenage nephew.

2017 Golden Globes - Best Director
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/2017-golden-globes-best-director/.

Manchester by the Sea also got the Best Director nomination for Kenneth Lonergan, though it is more likely to prevail in Best Actor – Drama category as Casey Affleck did a great job. But Denzel Washington also did a great acting role in Fences, while he didn’t get nomination for directing this movie.

2017 Golden Globes - Best Actor: Drama
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/2017-golden-globes-best-actor-drama/.

Natalie Portman is favorite for the best drama actress award for playing Jacqueline Kennedy in the biopic Jackie. Still, there was a lot of positive talk about great role of Amy Adams in Arrival, though she is at the moment third favorite with the second being Isabelle Huppert for her role of a successful businesswoman in Elle.

2017 Golden Globes - Best Actress: Drama
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/2017-golden-globes-best-actress-drama/.

Ryan Gosling is already seen as the winner of Golden Globe for Best Actor - Musical or Comedy, and the lead actor of La La Land doesn’t face great competition in this category. It was nice seeing Hugh Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins, and Ryan Reynolds in Deadpool but either of them will hardly prevail.

2017 Golden Globes - Best Actor: Musical or Comedy
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/2017-golden-globes-best-actor-musical-or-comedy/.

Category that will take more attention than it usually does is Best Actress in TV Drama. Evan Rachel Wood was in the last few months superb in Westworld, before her Winona Ryder was impressive in Stranger Things, but big chances are also given to Claire Foy for her role of Queen Elizabeth II in The Crown.

2017 Golden Globes - Best Actress: TV Drama
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/2017-golden-globes-best-actress-tv-drama/.

So, who are your favorites in all of these categories? And hurry up to place the bets on them at Fairlay markets.

Who will be the next French President? Francois Fillon, Marine Le Pen, or someone third?

Two weeks ago, Francois Fillon has won France's Republican presidential primary, after his opponent Alain Juppe conceded defeat, and by doing this he became the first favorite to become the next French President.

Thus, Fillon is now likely to face a spring showdown with far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen, who will be seeking to build on that same anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim and anti-establishment feeling.

Next French President, Predict at Fairlay:
https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-1/.

Some recent polls showed that Fillon will beat Le Pen by 67% to 33%, but many agree that Le Pep could become the next French President as the National Front leader is feeling confident after Brexit and Trump win.

While Fairlay market at the moment gives Fillon 59% and Le Pen 23% chances, the first round of the French presidential election will be held on April 23, and the second on May 7. So, who will be the big winner in the end?

Italian constitutional referendum will be held on Sunday: Will it be a Yes or a No vote?

Italy will hold a referendum on Sunday on whether or not to change the country’s constitution. As Independent writes, the country’s centre-left Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi, has promised to resign if the electorate rejects his proposals. But the vote hangs in the balance.

Also, as Guardian writes this referendum is causing concern across Europe after the UK’s vote to leave the EU and Donald Trump’s US presidential election victory. Italy’s vote is as well seen as the biggest threat to Europe since the UK’s referendum on EU membership in June.

Italian Constitutional Referendum result, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/italian-constitutional-referendum-result/.

So, how is the referendum likely to go? Before the official blackout on polls on November 18, there was a projected 53.5 per cent to 46.5 per cent lead for the “No” camp. There is some hope that the 20 per cent people who haven’t made up their mind will ultimately swing behind “Yes”.

At the moment, Fairlay market is also in favor of “No” vote, as “Yes” is given only 21 per cent chances. And the “No” vote is being championed by the populist Five Star movement, led by the comedian Beppe Grillo, an admirer of Mr Trump. In short, the outlook for Mr Renzi is not particularly good. But, what do you think?

Where is Julian Assange? And will he be proven alive before 2017, or least in the following 10 months?

“We're happy to announce (a bit prematurely due to sleep schedules) that /r/WhereIsAssange is the subreddit of the day for 11/23/16.“ Yes, that's how big WhereIsAssange got in the last few days as its primary focus is the whereabouts/status of Julian Assange after his internet disconnection and disappearance from the public eye last month. So, where is Julian Assange? And will he soon be proven alive?

Will Julian Assange be proven alive before 2017? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/will-julian-assange-be-proven-alive-before-2017/.

In case you missed it, here is /r/WhereIsAssange Summary of the events:

The WikiLeaks twitter made several cryptic "pre-commitment" tweets several hours before announcing Julian Assange's internet was cut. Since then, we have received no definitive proof of life, just recycled pictures and videos, statements from people saying things like, "I've seen him, he's fine," then a call-in to an obscure South America open source conference where Julian didn't seem to always be responding to the person asking questions, and most recently a video interview with John Pilger that had no establishing shot of both of them in frame and is edited at numerous points.

Will Julian Assange be proven alive before September 2017? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/will-julian-assange-be-proven-alive-before-september-2017/.

Thus, /r/WhereIsAssange is asking for an unedited video proof of life, preferably with a newspaper showing the current date, and a signed PGP statement using the Wikileaks Editorial Board public key that has been published since 4/2015 (matching the PGP fingerprint listed on the WikiLeaks twitter bio). As for Fairlay, any proof accepted by the media and Reddit users is enough. But, will that proof come in the following weeks (before 2017), or in the following months (before September 2017). Well, make your opinion at Fairlay.

The World Chess Championship has come to New York City. Who will win it? Magnus Carlsen or Sergey Karjakin?

The World Chess Championship has come to New York City, as the Norwegian defending champion Magnus Carlsen and his Russian challenger Sergey Karjakin vie for the game’s highest title. They’re both kids: Carlsen is 25 and Karjakin is 26, yet they’ve lived half their lives as grandmasters. The match is being billed as the youngest championship ever, as FiveThirtyEight’s Oliver Roeder writes.

The first weekend of their best-of-12 match is in the books, and after two games — and two draws — the score is level at 1-1. In Game 1, Carlsen, playing with the white pieces, chose an unusual opening called the Trompowsky Attack. The joke around the Fulton Market Building on Friday was that he played it as a homophonic nod to the new president-elect. There was truth to the joke. Asked after the game whether his choice had anything to do with Donald Trump, Carlsen replied: “A little bit.”

Magnus Carlsen (NOR) vs Sergey Karjakin (RUS) – Game 3 Winner, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/magnus-carlsen-nor-game-3-vs-sergey-karjakin-rus-game-3/.

“I’m a big fan of Donald Trump,” Carlsen told Norway’s TV2 in March. “Trump is incredibly good at finding opponents’ weaknesses. He speaks only about that the other candidates are stupid or smelly. There should be more of this in chess, too.” Carlsen then offered a Trumpism of his own: “Karjakin is incredibly boring!” Karjakin, for his political part, is an avowed supporter of Vladimir Putin.

By the end of that first game no further blood was drawn, and the players agreed to a draw after the 42nd move and just under four hours of play. Game 2, with Karjakin handling the white pieces, began with the all-too-familiar Ruy Lopez opening, a staple of chess for 500 years. The rest of the game was an equally uncreative and plodding affair. After just under three hours, and not much else to speak of, they arrived at a second draw.

Magnus Carlsen (NOR) vs Sergey Karjakin (RUS) – Series Winner, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/magnus-carlsen-nor-series-vs-sergey-karjakin-rus-series-3/.

With the match continuing today, Carlsen remains the heavy favorite, although his chances according to Oliver Roeder’s Elo-based simulations have dipped from 88 percent at the start to 84 percent now, as Karjakin has held serve. At the same time, Fairlay market gives another draw in Game 3 66% chances, while Magnus Carlsen is still the favorite for the final win with 82% chances.

The 12-game match is taking place until November 30, with the two contestants competing for a prize fund of at least 1 million euros. If the score is tied after 12 games, a four-game rapid chess match will be played, then five two-game matches of blitz chess if necessary, and finally, an Armageddon game will be used to break the tie. At the same time, the World Chess Championship in New York will be the first in any sport to be broadcast in 360-degree virtual reality (VR).

The Oscars 2017: Which movies are gaining, and which movies are losing their chances for the 89th Academy Awards?

The 89th Academy Awards ceremony will take place on February 26, 2017 but there are already some bigger changes at our Oscars markets. Some movies are coming out with negative reviews, others with positive, while most of them are still in waiting to hit the cinemas. Still, that doesn’t stop people to see some of them as the best movies of the year.

The Oscars 2017 - Best Picture, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-picture/.

One of those movies is ‘La La Land’, romantic musical comedy-drama starring Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone, which is set to be released on December 9 but it is already by far the biggest favorite for the Best Picture. Some movies (like Australian-American-British drama ‘Lion’) are losing their chances, while others (like ‘Silence’, historical drama directed by Martin Scorsese, or drama ‘Moonlight’ written and directed by Barry Jenkins) are gaining them.

The Oscars 2017 - Best Director, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-picture/.

Damien Chazelle, director of ‘La La Land’ also became one of the favorites for the Best Director Award, though he is still given the same chances as Ang Lee, director of ‘Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk’, and Kenneth Lonergan, director of ‘Manchester by the Sea’. But, can some other directors, like Denzel Washington for ‘Fences’, prevail in the end?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Actor, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actor/.

As we talk about Denzel Washington, he is still the second favorite for the Best Actor Award, for the leading role in his already mentioned own movie ‘Fences’. Though, things didn’t change a lot recently as Casey Affleck, for his superb role in ‘Manchester by the Sea’ is still the first favorite, while Ryan Gosling’s chances for the Oscar (of course, for his role in ‘La La Land’) are becoming bigger, so it wouldn’t be such a big surprise if he wins it this year.

The Oscars 2017 - Best Actress, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actress-1/.

On the other side, favorites for the Best Actress changed so much in the recent weeks that Fairlay had to offer completely new market. The main reason for this are Emma Stone for her role in ‘La La Land’, and Natalie Portman who looks great as Jackie Kennedy in ‘Jackie’. But, who are your favorites, and which movies do you see as the winners?

Next French President: Hollande’s popularity falls to 4%, will Alain Juppe use this?

French presidential election is scheduled to be held on April 23, 2017 for the first round and May 7, 2017 for the runoff, but it already looks that current president is without the chances as his approval ratings have plummeted to 4%.

Reason for this is a 662-page book published last month by two journalists, based on recorded interviews with the Socialist president. In it, Hollande insults all and sundry: judges, footballers, his own ministers and more.

Yet even if Hollande were to stand aside, as The Economist writes, polls suggest that the Socialists would perform disastrously in the presidential election’s first round, failing to make it to the second-round run-off.

Next French President, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/next-french-president/.

The party’s best alternative, Manuel Valls, would still not beat either the centre-right candidate or the nationalist Marine Le Pen. And the Republicans will hold presidential primaries to select a candidate on November 20.

So, if Alain Juppe defeats Nicolas Sarkozy to become the Republicans candidate, he will become even bigger favorite to become the next French president. In all the recent polls, mayor of Bordeaux is the one with the best numbers.

Though, support for anti-migration candidate Marine Le Pen is believed to be surging as well. Thus, the following months will surely be interesting in France, so don’t miss the chance to use the great odds on most candidates at Fairlay market.

Battleground states, swing states, purple states: Who will win them, Hillary or Trump?

We are only few days away from the night of November 8 when the results start to come in from each of fifty states. Map will be filled in blue for Hillary and in red for Trump, but the fact is that we already know most of these results. Still, those purple states, also known as swing states or battleground states, need to find it real color.

So, purple states which are relatively evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans. And, depending on analysts, there are eight to fifteen competitive states this time around. In recent cycles, the presidency has been won in Florida and Ohio. America's 3rd and 7th largest states with 29 and 18 electoral votes respectively, they are constantly swinging back and forth between parties.

Who will win Florida? Fairlay market gives Hillary 56% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-florida-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

The two states also have near-perfect records of picking the president over the past five decades. The result in Ohio has mirrored the national outcome in every election since 1960, while Florida has diverged from the nation at large just once over that period. Thus, both Hillary and Trump these days spend a lot of their time in these two states.

Who will win Ohio? Fairlay market gives Trump 60% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-ohio-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Though Trump remains a narrow lead in Ohio, Florida is still really tight. With its burgeoning Hispanic population, we might think Florida would be slipping from Trump’s grasp because of his incendiary rhetoric on immigration. Yet his message on trade and change is resonating well even among some Hispanics in central Florida and the outcome, as so often is the case, is entirely in the balance.

Who will win North Carolina? Fairlay market gives Trump 51% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-north-carolina-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

North Carolina is also one of the swing states. When Barack Obama won North Carolina in 2008, he was the first Democrat to do so since Jimmy Carter. Mitt Romney won the Southern state back in 2012, and it now appears to be a toss-up between Clinton and Trump. And it could go either way, with the race being incredibly tight.

Who will win Pennsylvania? Fairlay market gives Hillary 79% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-pennsylvania-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Pennsylvania is a state that has Democrat all over it. Philadelphia is the city of Brotherly Love with a significant black population. Scranton is the hometown of Vice President Joe Biden. Still, though polls are going towards Hillary, Trump still thinks that he can win Pennsylvania. His focus: the Philadelphia suburbs. Hillary is given 79% at Fairlay market so Trump’s win there would be a rather surprise.

Other battleground states:

Who will win Virginia? Fairlay market gives Hillary 87% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-virginia-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Who will win Michigan? Fairlay market gives Hillary 79% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-michigan-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Who will win Wisconsin? Fairlay market gives Hillary 82% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-wisconsin-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Who will win Iowa? Fairlay market gives Trump 72% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-iowa-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Who will win Colorado? Fairlay market gives Hillary 77% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-iowa-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Who will win Nevada? Fairlay market gives Hillary 82% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-nevada-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.