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Oscars 2017: Who will be Best Director, and who will win the awards for Best Actor and Best Actress?

Last Monday, Fairlay put you on offer markets for the Best Picture and Announced Host of the 89th Academy Awards ceremony but this Monday it is time to add three other main categories: Best Director, Best Actor and Best Actress.

As for the Best Picture, ‘La La Land’ is still the first favorite but its director Damien Chazelle is the third favorite to win the award for directing. Ahead of him are Ang Lee for ‘Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk’ and Kenneth Lonergan for directing ‘Manchester by the Sea’. At the moment, they are both given the same chances to get Best Director award.

The Oscars 2017 - Best Director, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-picture/.

Though its chances for Best Picture are not huge, drama ‘Manchester by the Sea’ could win few of the main awards as its lead actor Casey Affleck is the first favorite to win the Best Actor award. Given by the trailer, he did a great job.

But, Denzel Washington wants few awards as well. At the moment he is among six directors that are the main favorites for Best Director, but Denzel Washington is also the second favorite for the Best Actor awards as it looks like that he did great job on the movie ‘Fences’, both as a director and the main actor. Still, we have plenty of other options as well.

The Oscars 2016 - Best Actor, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actor/.

And how big ‘Manchester by the Sea’ could become shows the fact that its Michelle Williams is the first favorite for the Best Actress. Thus, with this she is confirming this drama as one of the biggest contenders to take the main awards.

Still, let’s not hurry as there are plenty of other great movies. ‘Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk’ is one of them and Kristen Stewart is amongst the favorites to win the Best Actress awards, as well as the likes of Naomie Harris (‘Moonlight’) Aja Naomi King (‘The Birth of a Nation’) Nicole Kidman (‘Lion’), and Dakota Fanning (‘American Pastoral’).

The Oscars 2017 - Best Actress, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actress/.

Oscars are not so far anymore, season of great movies is ahead of us so don’t miss the chance to use the great odds. And if you are more of a TV person, don’t miss the chance to place the predictions on the Sunday’s Emmy Awards.

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Man Booker Prize: Who will win it this year?

A shortlist for the Man Booker prize for Fiction, a literary prize awarded each year for the best original novel written in the English language and published in the UK, was announced today. It includes six titles, with few big names including JM Coetzee, AL Kennedy and Pulitzer winner Elizabeth Strout out after judges’ agonizing and exhilarating rereading.

If you are not similar with it, the winner of the Man Booker Prize is generally assured of international renown and success; therefore, the prize is of great significance for the book trade. Thus it is greeted with great anticipation and fanfare, and it is also a mark of distinction for authors who are selected for inclusion in the shortlist.

Man Booker Prize 2016 - Winner, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/man-booker-prize-2016-winner/.

After shortlist was announced this morning, British author Deborah Levy, who was shortlisted for the Booker in 2012 for Swimming Home, became the first favorite for the win with her novel ‘Hot Milk’, an examination of female rage, sexuality and the bond between mother and daughter. Still, it is not a huge favorite and any other writer could prevail.

American author Paul Beatty is a second favorite for his satire about a man who tries to reintroduce slavery and segregate the local high school, ‘The Sellout’. He is followed by Canadian-born writer David Szalay’s ‘All That Man Is’, and Scottish writer Graeme Macrae Burnet’s story of murder in a 19th-century named ‘His Bloody Project’.

Last two shortlisted are Canadian Madeleine Thien’s ‘Do Not Say We Have Nothing’, and a debut novel from the American writer Ottessa Moshfegh, who at 35 is the youngest author on the shortlist for her psychological thriller ‘Eileen’. So, who is your favorite? You have until October 25 to choose wisely and predict the winner at Fairlay.

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Days of Hillary Clinton: Can she become the President, does she really has pneumonia, will she be indicted?

Few weeks ago, after defeating Bernie Sanders and taking big lead in the polls over Donald Trump, everything looked great for Hillary Clinton. But everything soon changed. So, can she turn around that negative change in her favor, or will all the different problems surrounding Hillary help Donald Trump to become the next President after all?

Next President, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/next-president-11/.

This morning the news came that Trump has 5-point lead in Bloomberg poll of battleground Ohio, and at RealClearPolitics polls Hillary’s lead is now at +2.1, which lowest since August 1. This came as a result as Hillary Clinton’s health became a real issue in the presidential campaign, after she felt ill during 9/11 memorial service in New York.

Is Clinton diagnosed with Parkinson? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/is-clinton-diagnosed-with-parkinson/.

Soon after that Clinton’s campaign issued a statement from her doctor revealing that she had been diagnosed with pneumonia two days earlier. Still, plenty of people, even some doctors, speculated that it is not just pneumonia, but that Hillary has Parkinson's Disease. Of course, also came speculations that she will resign even if she becomes President.

Will Hillary Clinton resign when she is president? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/will-hillary-clinton-resign-when-she-is-president/.

Health problems put a bit of shadow on her emails problems. Could Hillary Clinton really be indicted over her emails, has been one of the burning questions for months and though both she and plenty expert opinion from the start said it’s not going to happen, huge amount of voters disagreed with the FBI’s decision not to indict Hillary at the time.

Hillary Clinton will be indicted in 2016, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/hillary-clinton-will-be-indicted-in-2016-1/.

All in all, with presidential election being less than two months away, Hillary is not at the great position right now. But, Donald Trump wasn’t either few weeks ago and he found ways to calm the situation and use Hillary’s bad period. So, what will follow next? Is it really just a pneumonia, is FBI done with Hillary, and can she become the next President?

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Who will be next U.N. Secretary-General? Antonio Guterres leads for now but who else can prevail?

United Nations headquarters in New York is abuzz with rumors about the organization’s future leadership. The race to replace Ban Ki-moon as secretary-general next year is entering its final straightaway, but it looks like there will be some serious twists before it is complete. So, who will it be in the end?

Next U.N. Secretary-General, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/next-u-n-secretary-general-1/.

Member states have from the start of this race been open about preferring a female candidate and with Eastern Europe being the only region not yet to produce a U.N. Secretary-General, the expectation at the start of the race was that we might see a female U.N. Secretary-General from the region.

However, Irina Bokova, the Bulgarian Director-General of UNESCO and the only candidate to meet both criterias, is now trailing in the polls while the hope of having a new female leader (from any UN member state) is starting to become a long shot. Even Helen Clark, early favorite, is trailing in the polls.

Woman to be the next U.N. Secretary-General, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/woman-to-be-the-next-u-n-secretary-general-1/.

About the election itself, it is important to know that the Security Council will hold secret ballots until a consensus is reached on a candidate to replace Ban Ki-moon. We have recently received the results of the fourth straw poll and there are 10 hopefuls left vying to replace Ban Ki-moon. You can see the results of the voting HERE.

So, at the moment, the first favorite is Antonio Guterres, former Portuguese Prime Minister, and he is followed by Slovak Foreign Minister Miroslav Lajcak. Irina Bokova and Vuk Jeremic, former Serbian Foreign Minister, are also ranked high but the following vote could change a lot. And before that happens place bet on your favorite at Fairlay.

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BBC SPOTY 2016 Winner: Will it be Andy Murray, Mo Farah, Laura Trott, or someone else?

The BBC Sports Personality of the Year Award is one of the main sports awards in the United Kingdom, and it is given each December. The winner is the sportsperson, judged by a public vote, to have achieved the most that year. The recipient must either be British or reside and play a significant amount of their sport in the United Kingdom.

Four people have won the award more than once: boxer Henry Cooper, Formula One drivers Nigel Mansell and Damon Hill and tennis player Andy Murray have each won twice. But can 2016 change that as Andy Murray is once again the first favorite, after winning it last year, and this year could become the only person who won the SPOTY three times.

BBC SPOTY 2016 Winner, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/bbc-spoty-2016-winner/.

But, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Andy Murray on December 18 gets less votes (the shortlist is announced a few weeks before the award ceremony, and the winner is determined on the night by a public telephone and on-line vote) than the currently second favorite Mo Farah who is the 2016 Olympic gold medalist in both the 5000 m and 10,000 m.

It is similar with Laura Trott who won both the team pursuit and the omnium at 2016 Games. And the fourth favorite is currently Nick Skelton who, at the age of 58, won the Individual Olympic gold medal at his seventh Olympic Games. All others, like Jamie Vardy and Lewis Hamilton, are given much less chance. So, who do you predict as a SPOTY winner?

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Oil investors are cutting wagers on both falling and rising crude prices, but where will it be at the end of the year?

A barrel of Brent Crude Oil is up to $46, though clashes in Libya delayed the first crude shipment from the country's Ras Lanuf export terminal since 2014. On the other side, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said that OPEC and non-OPEC countries are close to an agreement to stabilize markets ahead of an informal meeting in Algiers next week.

The uncertainty ahead of that meeting has seen oil investors head for the sidelines, cutting wagers on both falling and rising crude prices. The meeting comes after the International Energy Agency said that the global oversupply will last longer than previously thought as demand growth slows and output proves resilient. What will this meeting bring?

End of the year price of Crude Oil, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/end-of-the-year-price-of-crude-oil-1/.

So, there’s more uncertainty than usual in the market because of the upcoming meeting. People are waiting for the outcome and a number think this is a good time to stand on the sidelines. But, on the other side, it could be the good time to predict what will this meeting bring and use the first good odds on the range of the end of the year Oil price.

In the meantime, OPEC production rose last month as Middle East producers opened the taps, the IEA said. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates pumped at or near record levels and Iraq pushed output higher, according to the agency. Does this mean rise in Crude Oil price over $50 by the end of the year? Well, use bitcoins to predict it at Fairlay.

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Bitcoin is again under $600, but where will it be on November 1?

Bitcoin had rather fall today around midnight (UTC) as its price dropped from $607 to $592. Still, it is not as near as scary as that drop from $655 from July 30 to $552 three days later.

So, in those few days prices fell close to 20% to start the month, a steep decline that coincided with the hack of Hong Kong-based bitcoin exchange Bitfinex, one of the most heavily traded on the network globally.

But as the news of the improvement as Bitfinex came, price started to go up and Bitcoin was still at around $600 since the start of September. Now many ask what will happen next and where will price go from here?

Bitcoin price on November 1, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-price-on-november-1/.

Few days ago, Chris Burniske, blockchain products lead for investment manager ARK Invest, emphasized for CoinDesk that the bitcoin's blockchain retained its security and functionality in spite of the Bitfinex hack.

Thus it was once again confirmed that in spite of recent Bitfinex hack and many other difficulties in Bitcoin community, market participants should keep in mind that bitcoin has survived many challenges before. And will in future.

But where will Bitcoin price go from here? As always there are those who are sure it will go over $1000 in a couple of months, those who think it will keep $600, and those pessimistic ones. What is your opinion? Predict it at Fairlay.

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Will tonight’s debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump be the most watched debate ever?

It's debate night in America as the first debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump takes place tonight in New York, beginning at 9 p.m. Easter Time. The sheer stakes and spectacle of it all mean a lot of people are predicting record viewership. And record in this case means that at least 80.7 million viewers should watch tonight’s debate.

The viewership record could be set as the 90-minute debate could draw up to 100 million viewers. Thus, stakes are high for news organizations, which have an opportunity to set the record straight and to budge the presidential discussion ono the level ground of established facts. But, will this debate indeed go in history as the most watched debate ever?

Will the first 2016 presidential debate be the most watched debate ever? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/will-the-first-2016-presidential-debate-be-the-most-watched-debate-ever/.

Surely, millions of Americans will be glued to their TVs tonight, 54 years after Senator John F. Kennedy and Vice President Richard Nixon squared off in the first televised presidential debate. Though, you should have in mind that online streaming sources are not included in Nielsen report that is source for resolving this viewership record.

In recent years, the public has tuned into the presidential debates in record numbers. According to Nielsen, six of the top 10 most-watched debates in history occurred within the last three election cycles. Five occurred in just the last two. But, in 1980 Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan set a still-standing presidential debate record with 80.6 million viewers.

And many think that, based on how much TV viewing has changed, that record’s unlikely to ever fall — even with the unusual anticipation building for this Trump vs. Clinton debate. But again, with entertainment value of Donald Trump others are sure that TV history will be made tonight. So, on which side are you? And, of course, predict it at Fairlay.

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WWE Royal Rumble 2017 Match: Who will win it this time? Seth Rollins, Brock Lesnar, John Cena, someone else?

One of the most exciting events annually, held every January, in WWE is without question the WWE Royal Rumble. Not only is it arguably the most unique and storied match type in the company and maybe even in all of pro wrestling, but there is also the chance to see 30 superstars duke it out and to see the many other surprises and also some returns.

Those returns are now even more possible by holding the WWE Royal Rumble in Los Angeles for 2017, as that opens the door for both big celebrities to make appearances and also for the former superstars that have now taken residence in the big city to return as well. But could some of them even make a surprise win in the 30-man Royal Rumble match?

WWE Royal Rumble 2017 Match, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/wwe-royal-rumble-2017-match/.

After Triple H won it in Florida last year, first favorite to win it this year in California is Seth Rollins who is still without the win at Royal Rumble. But his chances are not huge, and the close second favorite is Brock Lesnar who lost last year after being the first favorite, though he was the youngest Royal Rumble winner when winning it in Boston in 2003.

John Cena is one of those legend that is always amongst the favorites, though after 2008 he won again in 2013, so is it too soon for him to win it again this year? But it could be the first time win for Irish Finn Balor, who is currently in front of the names like Roman Reigns, Kevin Owens, or AJ Styles. So, who is your favorite to become the hero on January 22?

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Nobel Peace Prize is announced tomorrow. Who will win it? White Helmets, Greek Islanders, Angela Merkel?

A record number of people and organizations have been nominated for the 2016 Nobel peace prize, which will be announced on Friday, 11 a.m. CET time. This year 376 candidates – 228 individuals and 148 organizations – are in contention for the award. A day before the winner is announced, many give the biggest chances to two different group of people that influenced conflict in Syria the most in the previous year: White Helmets and Greek Islanders.

During the past five years of war in Syria, the White Helmets, a group of volunteer rescue workers, have run towards bombs in opposition-held areas to rescue tens of thousands – by some estimates, as Guardian writes, up to 60,000 people – from the ruins and battlefields. There has been no more dangerous place in the world to be a first responder for most of that time. At the same time, group made up of pre-war Syria’s middle classes, have lost 160 of their own.

2016 Nobel Peace Prize Winner. Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/2016-nobel-peace-prize-winner/.

On the other side, if the islanders of Greece win this year’s Nobel peace prize it will not be because any of them wanted to. On the frontline of the biggest movement of humanity in modern times, the residents of Lesbos – to name but one of the isles – were nominated for opening their homes to Syrian refugees despite the economic hardship they have been forced to endure with Greece’s economic near-collapse. Because of this, many see them at the Nobel Prize winner.

Behind these two groups are two persons, though with much less chances: Congolese doctor Denis Mukwege - also nominated last year - for his work with thousands of rape victims, and Nadia Murad, a Yazidi who was abducted by IS fighters and held for months as a sex slave. Though, with a Russian human rights activist Svetlana Gannushkina, Angela Merkel, Pope Francis also seen by some as winners, option ‘Other’ at Fairlay is a smart choice. So, who is your favorite?

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Daniel Craig hints at James Bond return. Will he indeed do another Bond film?

Daniel Craig has lent weight to theories he will return to the role of James Bond, as Guardian writes, following a year of intense speculation. Speaking at the New Yorker festival over the weekend, he told the audience: “I’ve got the best job in the world doing Bond. The things I get to do on a Bond movie and the type of work it is, there’s no other job like it.”

His enthusiasm is in contrast to the sentiments expressed shortly after shooting ended on the most recent instalment. Asked then whether he would like to return to the part, Craig declared that he would “rather slash my wrists”.

Daniel Craig to do another Bond Film? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/daniel-craig-to-do-another-bond-film/.

His words chime with those of Bond executive producer Callum McDougall, who told the BBC recently that franchise chiefs Barbara Broccoli and Michael G Wilson were hoping for the return of the actor, who was “absolutely the first choice”. But Craig denied that he was offered $150m for two movie instalments – a report already widely debunked.

So, will Daniel Craig return as James Bond one more time? It looks like that chances are 50/50 at the moment, so you can use the great odds at Fairlay market, and if your option is No, you can follow with the bet on his successor.

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Nobel Literature Prize winner is announced on Thursday. Who will it be? Murakami, Adunis, Wa Thiong'o?

Literary circles are abuzz with speculation ahead of Thursday’s Nobel Literature Prize announcement (1 p.m. CET time), with award watchers suggesting this year’s honors could go to a controversial writer such as Syrian-born poet Ali Ahmad Said Esber, known by the pen name Adonis or Adunis whose most recent publication is a polemic tract on political Islam.

Thursday announcement will be ending of an unusually long wait: it comes a week later than usual “for calendar reasons”, the Academy said in late September. Still, some Nobel watchers have interpreted the late date as a sign of discord over this year’s choice, AFP writes. Could this discord be over Adunis, or possibly some other writer?

2016 Nobel Literature Prize Winner, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/2016-nobel-literature-prize-winner/.

Once again, we have Japanese contemporary surrealist Haruki Murakami as the first favorite. Though he is there every year, his fans more than ever think this could be his turn. It is same with the fans of Kenyan writer Ngugi Wa Thiong'o. Portuguese novelist Antonio Lobo Antunes, and Spanish novelist Juan Marse are also amongst the leading favorites.

Literary critic Madelaine Levy at daily Svenska Dagbladet said only one thing was certain: we know that we know nothing about the Academy’s choice. “Year after year, the writers chosen are incredibly different,” she noted. So, what do you predict for this year? Some less known name, first favorite Murakami, or could Adunis be the reason for this delay?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Three weeks till the US Presidential Election: Who will win Florida, Utah, Ohio, and Pennsylvania?

We are 21 days away from the US Presidential election scheduled for November 8. And as Hillary has a +5.5 lead over Trump in national poll average, there are a lot of discussions about which candidate will win which state. Some states are important as they bring plenty of electoral votes, others show how politics change. What will they show this time?

Who will win Florida? Fairlay gives Hillary 76% chances.
Predict at: https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-florida-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Florida went for Obama in 2012, but just barely, with the tightest margin of any state. After the second debate, Hillary has inched ahead in the latest polls for this all-important swing state and many think that she has an advantage over Trump because there is a large Hispanic and Latino population in Florida. But, can Trump still make a surprise win there?

Who will win Utah? Fairlay gives Trump 78% chances.
Predict at: https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-utah-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Mitt Romney won the state of Utah by 48 points but 56% of Mormons say Republican leaders should no longer support Donald Trump. But it still looks like Trump will prevail there. Even though it only has six of the 538 electoral college votes Utah could offer an interesting insight into changing political geography. So, could Mormons stop Trump from winning?

Who will win Ohio? Fairlay gives Hillary 68% chances.
Predict at: https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-ohio-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Some think that Ohio may decide who the next president is, so it is really important state. Reason for this is Ohio's incredibly diverse demographic, economic, and geographic makeup that makes it matter so much in elections. At the moment, Clinton is ahead plenty of polls but it seems like many think that Donald Trump could still win Ohio. Will he?

Who will win Pennsylvania? Fairlay gives Hillary 89% chances.
Predict at: https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-ohio-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Pennsylvania is one of the battleground states and many polls show that Hillary should easily win it. Still, in the last days there are plenty of headlines like 'Can Trump really win Pennsylvania? Stranger things have happened in 2016.' But, since 1988 Republicans have seen prize of 20 electoral votes swept away from them. Can Trump change that this time?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Trump says he'll keep country 'in suspense' on accepting election result. Will he accept it in the end?

The third and final presidential debate brought a lot of things, but most of today's focus is on Trump's refusal to say he'll accept losing. As Politico writes, Donald Trump delivered another unprecedented historical moment during the final presidential debate Wednesday night when the Republican nominee, who appears on his way to a landslide loss, refused to say that he would accept the election’s outcome.

“I will look at it at the time,” said Trump — just hours after his daughter, campaign manager and running mate all insisted that he would respect the voters’ will, win or lose. “That’s horrifying,” Clinton shot back, offering several examples of Trump blaming his personal setbacks and disappointments on others’ cheating or rigging of the events, including 'The Apprentice' getting passed over for an Emmy.

Will Trump accept the election result? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/will-trump-accept-the-election-result/.

The Republican nominee’s stunning refusal to say he’ll accept the outcome on November 8 was a jolting replay of the first GOP primary debate in which he dismayed his fellow Republicans by refusing to back the eventual nominee. We didn't see would he back the eventual nominee as he became the one, but do you think that he will go so far to deny the validity of the electoral results on November 8?

Treating American democracy as gingerly as a reality TV subplot, Trump promised last night moderator Chris Wallace and the country he would "keep you in suspense, OK?" And, while many think that with this move Trump made a huge mistake that will surely cost him in the end, you can now predict at Fairay market whether or not he will accept the electoral results. So, what is your opinion on all of this?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Nintendo Switch vs PS4 Pro vs Xbox One S: Which one will be the highest selling console of 2017?

At long last, Nintendo has taken the wraps off its new NX games console. We now know the Nintendo NX will be called the Switch and after having a first look at it, we surely all want to have it. Still, we don’t know anything beyond the basics shown to us in the reveal trailer and that the Switch launches in March of 2017.

Though, a leak on Reddit before the Switch announcement suggested the console will retail at around $299 for the base model but bundles will be available at $399 and be, we expect, similar to the Wii U Deluxe. And could this mean that Nintendo Switch will become the highest selling console of 2017 as most people want to have it?

The highest selling console of 2017. Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-highest-selling-console-of-2017/.

At the same time, Xbox released a video with the bold title of "Xbox One: The Best-Selling Console in America." It's a somewhat misleading claim as it's a fact, that to date, the PlayStation 4 has sold more units than the Xbox One. Over the past few months the Xbox One indeed has outsold the PlayStation 4 in America and that is only true.

Still, it's entirely possible that the announcement of the PlayStation 4 Pro has deflated PlayStation sales, as gamers wait to purchase the newer, more powerful console when it launches next month. But, will PlayStation 4 Pro be better selling console than Xbox One S, and can either of them win over Nintendo Switch? Predict at Fairlay.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Hillary vs Trump entered its final week: Does Hillary has is it, or is it becoming a tightening race?

As AFP writes, Donald Trump stormed into Democratic territory as the campaign entered its final week Monday, determined to disprove polls and capture the White House as rival Hillary Clinton battles to contain the fallout from renewed FBI focus on her emails. But can he use this to become the next President on November 8?

Allegations that Clinton put the United States at risk by using a private email server while secretary of state were thrust back into the spotlight Friday, though FBI director James Comey told email disclosure may have broken law, dramatically shifting the momentum in a race where Clinton was increasingly seen as the prohibitive favorite to win.

Who will become the next President?
Predict at Fairlay: https://www.fairlay.com/market/next-president-11/.

University of Virginia politics professor Larry Sabato told AFP the email scandal "has changed the dynamic of the race." And it surely did. "She would have been running a victory lap this week, running up the score. Instead she's trying to hold on." And with this, her lead in RCP polling is down to +3.0 today, after +7.1 on October 18.

While Clinton does maintain leads in some key battleground states and a modest advantage nationwide, recent polls already showed a tightening race. An ABC News/Washington Post survey carried out before the FBI announcement put the Democratic presidential candidate just one point ahead of her Republican challenger.

But while Clinton's lead has shrunk, Sabato distilled the Trump strategy to a simple truth: he needs to flip at least one Democratic-leaning state on November 8 in order to win. Is Trump able to do this? At the moment, Fairlay market gives him 24% chances (with a rather big increase recently), so you can still use the great odds on his win.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Battleground states, swing states, purple states: Who will win them, Hillary or Trump?

We are only few days away from the night of November 8 when the results start to come in from each of fifty states. Map will be filled in blue for Hillary and in red for Trump, but the fact is that we already know most of these results. Still, those purple states, also known as swing states or battleground states, need to find it real color.

So, purple states which are relatively evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans. And, depending on analysts, there are eight to fifteen competitive states this time around. In recent cycles, the presidency has been won in Florida and Ohio. America's 3rd and 7th largest states with 29 and 18 electoral votes respectively, they are constantly swinging back and forth between parties.

Who will win Florida? Fairlay market gives Hillary 56% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-florida-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

The two states also have near-perfect records of picking the president over the past five decades. The result in Ohio has mirrored the national outcome in every election since 1960, while Florida has diverged from the nation at large just once over that period. Thus, both Hillary and Trump these days spend a lot of their time in these two states.

Who will win Ohio? Fairlay market gives Trump 60% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-ohio-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Though Trump remains a narrow lead in Ohio, Florida is still really tight. With its burgeoning Hispanic population, we might think Florida would be slipping from Trump’s grasp because of his incendiary rhetoric on immigration. Yet his message on trade and change is resonating well even among some Hispanics in central Florida and the outcome, as so often is the case, is entirely in the balance.

Who will win North Carolina? Fairlay market gives Trump 51% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-north-carolina-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

North Carolina is also one of the swing states. When Barack Obama won North Carolina in 2008, he was the first Democrat to do so since Jimmy Carter. Mitt Romney won the Southern state back in 2012, and it now appears to be a toss-up between Clinton and Trump. And it could go either way, with the race being incredibly tight.

Who will win Pennsylvania? Fairlay market gives Hillary 79% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-pennsylvania-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Pennsylvania is a state that has Democrat all over it. Philadelphia is the city of Brotherly Love with a significant black population. Scranton is the hometown of Vice President Joe Biden. Still, though polls are going towards Hillary, Trump still thinks that he can win Pennsylvania. His focus: the Philadelphia suburbs. Hillary is given 79% at Fairlay market so Trump’s win there would be a rather surprise.

Other battleground states:

Who will win Virginia? Fairlay market gives Hillary 87% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-virginia-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Who will win Michigan? Fairlay market gives Hillary 79% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-michigan-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Who will win Wisconsin? Fairlay market gives Hillary 82% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-wisconsin-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Who will win Iowa? Fairlay market gives Trump 72% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-iowa-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Who will win Colorado? Fairlay market gives Hillary 77% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-iowa-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Who will win Nevada? Fairlay market gives Hillary 82% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-nevada-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Next French President: Hollande’s popularity falls to 4%, will Alain Juppe use this?

French presidential election is scheduled to be held on April 23, 2017 for the first round and May 7, 2017 for the runoff, but it already looks that current president is without the chances as his approval ratings have plummeted to 4%.

Reason for this is a 662-page book published last month by two journalists, based on recorded interviews with the Socialist president. In it, Hollande insults all and sundry: judges, footballers, his own ministers and more.

Yet even if Hollande were to stand aside, as The Economist writes, polls suggest that the Socialists would perform disastrously in the presidential election’s first round, failing to make it to the second-round run-off.

Next French President, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/next-french-president/.

The party’s best alternative, Manuel Valls, would still not beat either the centre-right candidate or the nationalist Marine Le Pen. And the Republicans will hold presidential primaries to select a candidate on November 20.

So, if Alain Juppe defeats Nicolas Sarkozy to become the Republicans candidate, he will become even bigger favorite to become the next French president. In all the recent polls, mayor of Bordeaux is the one with the best numbers.

Though, support for anti-migration candidate Marine Le Pen is believed to be surging as well. Thus, the following months will surely be interesting in France, so don’t miss the chance to use the great odds on most candidates at Fairlay market.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

The Oscars 2017: Which movies are gaining, and which movies are losing their chances for the 89th Academy Awards?

The 89th Academy Awards ceremony will take place on February 26, 2017 but there are already some bigger changes at our Oscars markets. Some movies are coming out with negative reviews, others with positive, while most of them are still in waiting to hit the cinemas. Still, that doesn’t stop people to see some of them as the best movies of the year.

The Oscars 2017 - Best Picture, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-picture/.

One of those movies is ‘La La Land’, romantic musical comedy-drama starring Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone, which is set to be released on December 9 but it is already by far the biggest favorite for the Best Picture. Some movies (like Australian-American-British drama ‘Lion’) are losing their chances, while others (like ‘Silence’, historical drama directed by Martin Scorsese, or drama ‘Moonlight’ written and directed by Barry Jenkins) are gaining them.

The Oscars 2017 - Best Director, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-picture/.

Damien Chazelle, director of ‘La La Land’ also became one of the favorites for the Best Director Award, though he is still given the same chances as Ang Lee, director of ‘Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk’, and Kenneth Lonergan, director of ‘Manchester by the Sea’. But, can some other directors, like Denzel Washington for ‘Fences’, prevail in the end?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Actor, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actor/.

As we talk about Denzel Washington, he is still the second favorite for the Best Actor Award, for the leading role in his already mentioned own movie ‘Fences’. Though, things didn’t change a lot recently as Casey Affleck, for his superb role in ‘Manchester by the Sea’ is still the first favorite, while Ryan Gosling’s chances for the Oscar (of course, for his role in ‘La La Land’) are becoming bigger, so it wouldn’t be such a big surprise if he wins it this year.

The Oscars 2017 - Best Actress, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actress-1/.

On the other side, favorites for the Best Actress changed so much in the recent weeks that Fairlay had to offer completely new market. The main reason for this are Emma Stone for her role in ‘La La Land’, and Natalie Portman who looks great as Jackie Kennedy in ‘Jackie’. But, who are your favorites, and which movies do you see as the winners?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

The World Chess Championship has come to New York City. Who will win it? Magnus Carlsen or Sergey Karjakin?

The World Chess Championship has come to New York City, as the Norwegian defending champion Magnus Carlsen and his Russian challenger Sergey Karjakin vie for the game’s highest title. They’re both kids: Carlsen is 25 and Karjakin is 26, yet they’ve lived half their lives as grandmasters. The match is being billed as the youngest championship ever, as FiveThirtyEight’s Oliver Roeder writes.

The first weekend of their best-of-12 match is in the books, and after two games — and two draws — the score is level at 1-1. In Game 1, Carlsen, playing with the white pieces, chose an unusual opening called the Trompowsky Attack. The joke around the Fulton Market Building on Friday was that he played it as a homophonic nod to the new president-elect. There was truth to the joke. Asked after the game whether his choice had anything to do with Donald Trump, Carlsen replied: “A little bit.”

Magnus Carlsen (NOR) vs Sergey Karjakin (RUS) – Game 3 Winner, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/magnus-carlsen-nor-game-3-vs-sergey-karjakin-rus-game-3/.

“I’m a big fan of Donald Trump,” Carlsen told Norway’s TV2 in March. “Trump is incredibly good at finding opponents’ weaknesses. He speaks only about that the other candidates are stupid or smelly. There should be more of this in chess, too.” Carlsen then offered a Trumpism of his own: “Karjakin is incredibly boring!” Karjakin, for his political part, is an avowed supporter of Vladimir Putin.



By the end of that first game no further blood was drawn, and the players agreed to a draw after the 42nd move and just under four hours of play. Game 2, with Karjakin handling the white pieces, began with the all-too-familiar Ruy Lopez opening, a staple of chess for 500 years. The rest of the game was an equally uncreative and plodding affair. After just under three hours, and not much else to speak of, they arrived at a second draw.

Magnus Carlsen (NOR) vs Sergey Karjakin (RUS) – Series Winner, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/magnus-carlsen-nor-series-vs-sergey-karjakin-rus-series-3/.

With the match continuing today, Carlsen remains the heavy favorite, although his chances according to Oliver Roeder’s Elo-based simulations have dipped from 88 percent at the start to 84 percent now, as Karjakin has held serve. At the same time, Fairlay market gives another draw in Game 3 66% chances, while Magnus Carlsen is still the favorite for the final win with 82% chances.

The 12-game match is taking place until November 30, with the two contestants competing for a prize fund of at least 1 million euros. If the score is tied after 12 games, a four-game rapid chess match will be played, then five two-game matches of blitz chess if necessary, and finally, an Armageddon game will be used to break the tie. At the same time, the World Chess Championship in New York will be the first in any sport to be broadcast in 360-degree virtual reality (VR).