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Looks like your original model is the winner. 434,883 is slightly outside the upper quartile, but close. Not very many other people predicted it would go so high.
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The latest network graphs look like the beginnings of an S-curve to me. The trend may not continue, but if I'm seeing it correctly, it looks like difficulty would peak around 800,000 - 900,000.
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It's showing you which queries have geographic distributions that are the most similar to "Bitcoin". It's not the clearest example... a better example: you would expect the geographic distribution of searches for "blizzards" and "snow shovels" to be almost identical.
Apparently Bitcoin miners tend to live in areas where "mini american eskimo puppies" are all the rage. XD
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Two and a half hours to the difficulty retarget, and it's going to be a doozy.
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"Vires in Numeris" = "Strength in Numbers" is appealing the most to me. It is simple and works on more than one level at the same time.
Woot, I actually contributed to the community!  |
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If we're throwing around Latin mottos, "Vires in Cryptographia" = "Strength in Cryptography". (c.f. "Vires in Numeris" = "Strength in Numbers".)
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Number of bitcoins traded through the site (in the past 24 hours, I presume).
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You should get set up on the Web of Trust over at http://bitcoin-otc.com/That way you can receive ratings for Bitcoin transactions just like on eBay. (I'm not on the WOT myself, so I don't know exactly what's involved.) |
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I was skeptical of some of your predictions for a while, S3052, but this latest "unexpected" sell-off is really winning me over.
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Epii is referring to Legion's later post elsewhere, where he says he found a backup with 46,850 BTC in the old wallet. (46850+300)*446 = approximately 21000000. Impressive! 420? My math was off on account of posting that at 2am, but you got the point I was trying to make.  |
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Are you sure they are on? I can't see a noticeable bump in total network power. The increase is steady within normal variance. Perhaps a lot of GPU miners shut down their systems at the exact same time? If so they have become really good at turning them on and off at the same time: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.pngNOW there's been a spike. Big time. Note that the spike goes in the wrong direction when the FPGA clusters "just went online", and also compare with this historical chart which shows the variance on a longer time scale. Yup, I'm aware of both of these things. Just pointing out that the hashrate has gone from "below the difficulty" to "double the difficulty" in the past several hours. This may or may not be significant, but it's at least eyebrow-raising. EDIT: It looks like it's peaked and dropped down closer to the trendline now, though. |
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Are you sure they are on? I can't see a noticeable bump in total network power. The increase is steady within normal variance. Perhaps a lot of GPU miners shut down their systems at the exact same time? If so they have become really good at turning them on and off at the same time: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.pngNOW there's been a spike. Big time. Hrm. |
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The only more appropriate place to ask his question would be here: http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=3421.0If you're disconcerted because most readers won't understand, he's asking how many Chinese people there are on the forum, and what their names are. That's not necessarily a question that needs to be asked in English. |
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I have been trading for a few months and just encountered my first scammer (luke-jr - Luke Dashjr luke@dashjr.org). Beware, he's also operating a mining pool which is setup as a front to scam miners out of their profits. This guy will try every devious method to lie, cheat, and steal. Seeing as though luke-jr is a very well-established member in this community, and has only positive ratings in the WOT (including a rating from Keefe, the most highly-rated member of the WOT), some evidence is in order. |
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Yep, there it went, all the way down to uh, 8.2?
Well a single big seller did take the price down to 7.4 But just over 24 hours ago a single big seller took the price down to 6.51 (see the MtGox 48 hour chart). Looks like a general uptrend to me. It's back to 8.55 now anyway. And back down to 8.0. Takeaway point (news to nobody): this market is volatile. My original point, though, is that you don't need to be a market analyst to know this looks bearish:  |
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I think the reversal might be beginning ... Aaand resistance is broken
I would expect volume to be lower on the weekend, with less new money flowing in to MtGox. Mt Gox price increases have generally been volume driven, so no great surprise here. Wait till after Monday's trading to decide what's happening. The volume of users might be lower, but the volume of funds seems comparable to volatile times during the week. ($119,892 USD in the past 4 hours.) |
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Again, the charts gave a clear signal. This is the chart before the decline:
I'll take your word for it, but "clear" is a bit of a stretch. |
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Looking at the market depth right now, I think the reversal might be beginning... A little resistance at $8, and then it's a slide. EDIT: Aaand resistance is broken. Before I got to sell.  |
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