I get what your saying with all things being equal. I would not risk -200 thru a game BUT I would risk -120 thru 5 BUT it all depends on situation. There are 40 angles per game at least. When you have your Pitcher who wont let 2 runs and you know you will get at least 2 from your team then I like the -120. I get really selective on 5 innings though. After I share my FREE pick of the day I will tell you what I do when it all comes together on 5 inning lines. As I look at my records I can honestly say I dont really bet 5 inning lines much at all. When I did it was cuz opposing pitcher let up 2+ thru 5 every time while my guy thru his starts let up 1 run thru his 40 innings(first five stats). Now i had a huge edge and less juice and no bullpen. But I do combos some 5 innings I will explain little later today  You are still looking at it wrong. -125 is not automatically better than -180.
Full game
Reds: +160, Implied Probability: 38.46%
Rockies: -180, Implied Probability: 64.29%
Juice = 2.75%
First five innings run line:
Reds +.5 +105, implied probability: 48.78%
Rockies -.5 -125, implied probability: 55.56%
Juice = 4.34%
-125 gets you a better PAYOUT than -180, but that's because it's about 10% harder to win that bet. You are not paying less JUICE (the extra they take off) because they charge extra juice on 1/2 game bets because people don't realize this.
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Ok I think i see our breakdown in communication cuz at Bookmaker Colo -180 BUT 5 inning line at -.5 its -125. When I talk about 5 inning lines I am talking about my team favored by half a run. Thats always how I think in terms of 5innings. I also know I did not make that clear here. I am saying the juice can be saved as IF I really like them I will give the half a run. My bad -200 isn't necessarily more juice than -175, juice is the extra that they take out, not necessarily the fact they pay less on a particular bet.
You need to look at both sides of the bet to figure out what the actual juice is, and they take out more on the 5 innings bets.
People automatically think -175 is "better" than -200 so they charge you extra and you don't even realize it.
Pinnacle has Colorodo -178 for both 5 innings and the whole game, yet the five innings line has 2.49% juice and the full game has 1.91%.
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HAPPY FREE PICK DAY WAHOOOOO |
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That is simply an untrue statement. Getting away from juice meaning the team is a big fave at -200 at 5 innings its lower.. Look at lines Thursday. team totals have smaller Juice at least the ones I go with. I mean some times a team like the red sox -175 to win and ay think they canreally hit the pitcher and pen And team total is something like 5 at -120 Take the sox over instead on the game knowing their pitching isnt the greatest. Bring lines to show me what your talking about and I will do the same Thursday... BUT these games have angles that we can take advantage of. I will give ya my double bet ob 5 inn line + total on 5 inn when it matches right yer golden to go 2-0 BUT not when the over is -150 when its like -115. All lines are not the same I look forward to seeing these lines that have more juice than the Huge fave line to win the whole game. Maybe we are on 2 different type of lines OK I take one thing back NOTHING is an absolute never do I admit that. I think you have a BETTER % chance to have your team up by 1 thru 5 full at bats than win by 2 with 8 at bats. All we are doing is trying to get rid of the heavy juice there. 8 at bats vs 9 at bats I just wouldnt do cuz if I think they will win by a lot why wouldnt they be up 1 thru 5 Plus that takes the bullpen out of the picture like when degrom led 5-1 in 8th few days ago and bullpen coughs it up and mets win by 1. Questioning because of 1 of 40 angles is not right in my opinion. So I might respectively disagree with you . But I like these conversations and hope to have many more. I know in baseball ya need to be flexible And the Cubs have covered a bunch But I just wont do it I would rather win the first 5 inning as you get all 5 at bats and no bullpen worries
That kind of thinking makes me question your capabilities. You don't need to be an expert to know that the possibility of only 8 times up and the times when a walk off hit that would score multiple runs in the 8th but only scores 1 at the end of the game is built into the juice. But that doesn't mean you should never do it. If you are trying to get away from the juice, you shouldn't be going towards bets that have extra juice like 5 innings and team totals. |
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This is called prisoner of the Moment... 4 days ago the Whitesox lost a 7-1 9th inning lead in KC.... And its always easy to say afterwards. I am sure KC was at 10 odds Forget about the Cubs they only win the movies  Bet on Chicago White Sox instead. They came back to win two days in a row and it cost the sportsbookies a lot of money. They were at 5 odds going into the 9th when it was 1-1 today The night before 2.2 odds over 7.5 runs going into the 8th when it was 4-1. It was magic when they hit 5 runs so late into the game. |
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OK I take one thing back NOTHING is an absolute never do I admit that. I think you have a BETTER % chance to have your team up by 1 thru 5 full at bats than win by 2 with 8 at bats. All we are doing is trying to get rid of the heavy juice there. 8 at bats vs 9 at bats I just wouldnt do cuz if I think they will win by a lot why wouldnt they be up 1 thru 5 Plus that takes the bullpen out of the picture like when degrom led 5-1 in 8th few days ago and bullpen coughs it up and mets win by 1. Questioning because of 1 of 40 angles is not right in my opinion. So I might respectively disagree with you . But I like these conversations and hope to have many more. I know in baseball ya need to be flexible And the Cubs have covered a bunch But I just wont do it I would rather win the first 5 inning as you get all 5 at bats and no bullpen worries
That kind of thinking makes me question your capabilities. You don't need to be an expert to know that the possibility of only 8 times up and the times when a walk off hit that would score multiple runs in the 8th but only scores 1 at the end of the game is built into the juice. But that doesn't mean you should never do it. |
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And the Cubs have covered a bunch But I just wont do it I would rather win the first 5 inning as you get all 5 at bats and no bullpen worries
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One thing I will never do when Betting baseball is take the HOME team and give 1.5 runs. With only 8 at bets I dont believe its very smart.
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Might show some leans I have in the near future. For now check out the link below and If you join and play 1 money game you get 1 FREE day of my Premium picks. Today I am looking for the KC ROYALS TEAM TOTAL OVER 3.5 https://www.draftkings.com/r/sportshaveballs |
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I am going through the games and so far looks like a good card.. I like a couple A LOT so I will get pick up soon BUT it is a later game so there is time
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Who is ready for a FREE PICK?
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I will liven up this thread soon. I will do my best to provide more WINNERS!!!
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WINNER not a lot of chatter here today. Anyone wantto send bitcoin to me. I just set coinbase up. Think I can receive bitcoin now.. I`m a rokkie bitcoiner lol
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Oh Shmoo Bears I almost forgot to post my FREEBIE HERE. I Like SF minus the small juice
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If I had A side I liked I would release it. I Like the Warriors to win and maybe Pull away with FTs late But Not putting money on it. Will OKC grow up to become a Champion Tonight? I don`tthink they have what it takes and will have to live with blowing 3-1 series lead... Unless they win lol. I wil say Golden State will win the game. I Love watching Golden State Play so I have been Rooting for Golden State. But when OKC has a great play I yell wooooo also. I enjoy OKC so I love this series and not making any pick... Below is site I bet at http://w-as.com/?Yt84X even though its a .eu site I Love using it as its Great for USA Players. Please sign up from that site thanx You can do your research also but this site has Bookmaker #1 http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-sites/Any way Can`t wait till this Game 7 starts( THE REAL NBA FINALS) haha lol ok. You have not side except the winning side.  True gambler thru & thru  |
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I Love watching Golden State Play so I have been Rooting for Golden State. But when OKC has a great play I yell wooooo also. I enjoy OKC so I love this series and not making any pick... Below is site I bet at http://w-as.com/?Yt84X even though its a .eu site I Love using it as its Great for USA Players. Please sign up from that site thanx You can do your research also but this site has Bookmaker #1 http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-sites/Any way Can`t wait till this Game 7 starts( THE REAL NBA FINALS) |
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Its ALLL ABOUT NBA GAME 7 for me Oklahoma City at Golden State gonna be a Great one. Counting down the hours till this one starts. 2 hrs 26 minutes I Lost with SF-1.5.. Cubs are also part of my Top 3 Good Luck Any free picks today as I have Chc cubs and Athletcis all ready on my betting form.
I had parlay with three games yesterday with SF and Pitt got those two for under but Braves lost it for me. Had 10mbtc riding on that with another 5mbtc that had Miami & ATL Braves for under but lost that too on a parlay with SF under. damn it Braves !  So the morel of this story is: don't feel so bad about it as baseball is a tough one to predict 100% of the time. Try Hockey in the playoff match tonight. San Jose all the way!  |
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I Lost with SF-1.5.. Cubs are also part of my Top 3 Good Luck Any free picks today as I have Chc cubs and Athletcis all ready on my betting form.
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If you guys like fantasy sports. This is the best one https://www.draftkings.com/r/sportshaveballs You get bonuses for signing up and games cost as little as 25 cents to play. Anyone you signs up from this link and plays gets a FREE day of My picks.... |
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Thought I would give you guys an Opprotunity to get MORE FREE PICKS #1-I Play at This sportsbook-- http://www.bookmaker.eu/?raf=AxtiticUoT7j0XxaYiko7j9Q0PdIqXHyF4g_c2U6YMc-_This works well for people in the USA and pays without a hitch. They have been around for OVER 30 Years. Anyone who who opens a NEW Account from this link AND Funds their Account with a Minimum of $200 will receive 1 week of My Premium picks(Top 3 Picks a day for 7 days)-- Send me an email when you sign up and Fund #2 I am sure you all know about Draftkings and FanDuel.(Options available for YOU) JOIN Draftkings OR FanDuel--Deposit and play 1 real money game-- You Receive 1FREE PREMIUM DAY JOIN BOTH--Deposit to Both and Play 1 real Money game in each- You Receive--4 FREE PREMIUM DAYS To Qualify You must join from the Links Below then Email me that You joined https://www.draftkings.com/r/sportshaveballshttps://www.fanduel.com/?invitedby=sportshaveballs&cnl=da |
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