Free Baseball Pick every Day(30-15..66.6%)-DOCUMENTED HERE

[sportshaveballs]

And the Cubs have covered a bunch But I just wont do it I would rather win the first 5 inning as you get all 5 at bats and no bullpen worries

[Phildo]

And the Cubs have covered a bunch But I just wont do it I would rather win the first 5 inning as you get all 5 at bats and no bullpen worries

That kind of thinking makes me question your capabilities. You don't need to be an expert to know that the possibility of only 8 times up and the times when a walk off hit that would score multiple runs in the 8th but only scores 1 at the end of the game is built into the juice. But that doesn't mean you should never do it.

[Arcteryx]

Forget about the Cubs they only win the movies 
Bet on Chicago White Sox instead. They came back to win two days in a row and it cost the sportsbookies a lot of money. They were at 5 odds going into the 9th when it was 1-1  today
The night before 2.2 odds over 7.5 runs going into the 8th when it was 4-1.
It was magic when they hit 5 runs so late into the game.

[Caladonian]

Forget about the Cubs they only win the movies 
Bet on Chicago White Sox instead. They came back to win two days in a row and it cost the sportsbookies a lot of money. They were at 5 odds going into the 9th when it was 1-1  today
The night before 2.2 odds over 7.5 runs going into the 8th when it was 4-1.
It was magic when they hit 5 runs so late into the game.

wow cool info no one would expect that to happen i'm just thinking about those who bet for chicago might be so happy right now and that odds very cool winnings, I'll keep on eye on that team thanks for this info.

[sportshaveballs]

OK I take one thing back NOTHING is an absolute never do I admit that. I think you have a BETTER % chance to have your team up by 1 thru 5 full at bats than win by 2 with 8 at bats. All we are doing is trying to get rid of the heavy juice there. 8 at bats vs 9 at bats I just wouldnt do cuz if I think they will win by a lot why wouldnt they be up 1 thru 5 Plus that takes the bullpen out of the picture like when degrom led 5-1 in 8th few days ago and bullpen coughs it up and mets win by 1. Questioning because of 1 of 40 angles is not right in my opinion. So I might respectively disagree with you . But I like these conversations and hope to have many more. I  know in baseball ya need to be flexible

And the Cubs have covered a bunch But I just wont do it I would rather win the first 5 inning as you get all 5 at bats and no bullpen worries

That kind of thinking makes me question your capabilities. You don't need to be an expert to know that the possibility of only 8 times up and the times when a walk off hit that would score multiple runs in the 8th but only scores 1 at the end of the game is built into the juice. But that doesn't mean you should never do it.

[sportshaveballs]

This is called prisoner of the Moment... 4 days ago the Whitesox lost a 7-1 9th inning lead in KC.... And its always easy to say afterwards. I am sure KC was at 10 odds

Forget about the Cubs they only win the movies 
Bet on Chicago White Sox instead. They came back to win two days in a row and it cost the sportsbookies a lot of money. They were at 5 odds going into the 9th when it was 1-1  today
The night before 2.2 odds over 7.5 runs going into the 8th when it was 4-1.
It was magic when they hit 5 runs so late into the game.

[Phildo]

OK I take one thing back NOTHING is an absolute never do I admit that. I think you have a BETTER % chance to have your team up by 1 thru 5 full at bats than win by 2 with 8 at bats. All we are doing is trying to get rid of the heavy juice there. 8 at bats vs 9 at bats I just wouldnt do cuz if I think they will win by a lot why wouldnt they be up 1 thru 5 Plus that takes the bullpen out of the picture like when degrom led 5-1 in 8th few days ago and bullpen coughs it up and mets win by 1. Questioning because of 1 of 40 angles is not right in my opinion. So I might respectively disagree with you . But I like these conversations and hope to have many more. I  know in baseball ya need to be flexible

And the Cubs have covered a bunch But I just wont do it I would rather win the first 5 inning as you get all 5 at bats and no bullpen worries

That kind of thinking makes me question your capabilities. You don't need to be an expert to know that the possibility of only 8 times up and the times when a walk off hit that would score multiple runs in the 8th but only scores 1 at the end of the game is built into the juice. But that doesn't mean you should never do it.

If you are trying to get away from the juice, you shouldn't be going towards bets that have extra juice like 5 innings and team totals.

[sportshaveballs]

That is simply an untrue statement. Getting away from juice meaning the team is a big fave at -200 at 5 innings its lower.. Look at lines Thursday. team totals have smaller Juice at least the ones I go with. I mean some times a team like the red sox -175 to win and ay think they canreally hit the pitcher and pen And team total is something like 5 at -120 Take the sox over instead on the game knowing their pitching isnt the greatest. Bring lines to show me what your talking about and I will do the same Thursday... BUT these games have angles that we can take advantage of. I will give ya my double bet ob 5 inn line + total on 5 inn when it matches right yer golden to go 2-0 BUT not when the over is -150 when its like -115. All lines are not the same I look forward to seeing these lines that have more juice than the Huge fave line to win the whole game. Maybe we are on 2 different type of lines

OK I take one thing back NOTHING is an absolute never do I admit that. I think you have a BETTER % chance to have your team up by 1 thru 5 full at bats than win by 2 with 8 at bats. All we are doing is trying to get rid of the heavy juice there. 8 at bats vs 9 at bats I just wouldnt do cuz if I think they will win by a lot why wouldnt they be up 1 thru 5 Plus that takes the bullpen out of the picture like when degrom led 5-1 in 8th few days ago and bullpen coughs it up and mets win by 1. Questioning because of 1 of 40 angles is not right in my opinion. So I might respectively disagree with you . But I like these conversations and hope to have many more. I  know in baseball ya need to be flexible

And the Cubs have covered a bunch But I just wont do it I would rather win the first 5 inning as you get all 5 at bats and no bullpen worries

That kind of thinking makes me question your capabilities. You don't need to be an expert to know that the possibility of only 8 times up and the times when a walk off hit that would score multiple runs in the 8th but only scores 1 at the end of the game is built into the juice. But that doesn't mean you should never do it.

If you are trying to get away from the juice, you shouldn't be going towards bets that have extra juice like 5 innings and team totals.

[sportshaveballs]

HAPPY FREE PICK DAY WAHOOOOO

[Phildo]

-200 isn't necessarily more juice than -175, juice is the extra that they take out, not necessarily the fact they pay less on a particular bet.

You need to look at both sides of the bet to figure out what the actual juice is, and they take out more on the 5 innings bets.

People automatically think -175 is "better" than -200 so they charge you extra and you don't even realize it.

Pinnacle has Colorodo -178 for both 5 innings and the whole game, yet the five innings line has 2.49% juice and the full game has 1.91%.

[sportshaveballs]

Ok I think i see our breakdown in communication cuz at Bookmaker Colo -180 BUT 5 inning line at -.5 its -125.  When I talk about 5 inning lines I am talking about my team favored by half a run. Thats always how I think in terms of 5innings. I also know I did not make that clear here. I am saying the juice can be saved as IF I really like them I will give the half a run. My bad

-200 isn't necessarily more juice than -175, juice is the extra that they take out, not necessarily the fact they pay less on a particular bet.

You need to look at both sides of the bet to figure out what the actual juice is, and they take out more on the 5 innings bets.

People automatically think -175 is "better" than -200 so they charge you extra and you don't even realize it.

Pinnacle has Colorodo -178 for both 5 innings and the whole game, yet the five innings line has 2.49% juice and the full game has 1.91%.

[Phildo]

You are still looking at it wrong. -125 is not automatically better than -180.


Full game

Reds: +160, Implied Probability: 38.46%
Rockies: -180, Implied Probability: 64.29%

Juice = 2.75%


First five innings run line:

Reds +.5 +105, implied probability: 48.78%
Rockies -.5 -125, implied probability: 55.56%

Juice =  4.34%

-125 gets you a better PAYOUT than -180, but that's because it's about 10% harder to win that bet. You are not paying less JUICE (the extra they take off) because they charge extra juice on 1/2 game bets because people don't realize this.

[sportshaveballs]

I get what your saying with all things being equal. I would not risk -200 thru a game BUT I would risk -120 thru 5 BUT it all depends on situation. There are 40 angles per game at least. When you have your Pitcher who wont let 2 runs and you know you will get at least 2 from your team then I like the -120. I get really selective on 5 innings though. After I share my FREE pick of the day I will tell you what I do when it all comes together on 5 inning lines. As I look at my records I can honestly say I dont really bet 5 inning lines much at all. When I did it was cuz opposing pitcher let up 2+ thru 5 every time while my guy thru his starts let up 1 run thru his 40 innings(first five stats). Now i had a huge edge and less juice and no bullpen. But I do combos some 5 innings I will explain little later today

You are still looking at it wrong. -125 is not automatically better than -180.


Full game

Reds: +160, Implied Probability: 38.46%
Rockies: -180, Implied Probability: 64.29%

Juice = 2.75%


First five innings run line:

Reds +.5 +105, implied probability: 48.78%
Rockies -.5 -125, implied probability: 55.56%

Juice =  4.34%

-125 gets you a better PAYOUT than -180, but that's because it's about 10% harder to win that bet. You are not paying less JUICE (the extra they take off) because they charge extra juice on 1/2 game bets because people don't realize this.

[sportshaveballs]

Today I look for MORE EXPLOSIONS so I am taking BOSTON/BALTIMORE OVER 9.5

[sportshaveballs]

Implied probability I understand for a blind line bettor. See when I find something I like then its above the implied probability. I will take MY read on the game. Also I was also saying I like 5 innings -.5 BETTER than my team -1.5 cuz my team only get 8 at bats

You are still looking at it wrong. -125 is not automatically better than -180.


Full game

Reds: +160, Implied Probability: 38.46%
Rockies: -180, Implied Probability: 64.29%

Juice = 2.75%


First five innings run line:

Reds +.5 +105, implied probability: 48.78%
Rockies -.5 -125, implied probability: 55.56%

Juice =  4.34%

-125 gets you a better PAYOUT than -180, but that's because it's about 10% harder to win that bet. You are not paying less JUICE (the extra they take off) because they charge extra juice on 1/2 game bets because people don't realize this.

[Phildo]

5 lines is not less juice, stop saying it, I did the math in the last post.

[sportshaveballs]

Ok let me put it like this. AFTER I do my homework I think it is worth it on situations to risk same amount of money to win more. In those situations I think I have a chance to make more money that way. Especially when I compare -.5 thru 5 innings VS -1.5 with only 8 at bats. The are no absolutes of course. SOMETIMES I like a Team Total over the side also. That fits with redsox games to me. When I had Chris Sale when he was hot and those #s he was putting up VS Pineda(earlier in this thread I had this as Freebie and explained why) I Loved him at -.5. So I took the bullpen out of the equation Got him at -115 and YOUR implied math had that at 56+%. SO my Homework gave me a way better % then that in my opinion. My risk of money was less and thought THAT in THAT PARTICULAR GAME was way better odds then giving -180 where the bullpen could blow it (like they did inKC). There are situations where I can win more money. Baseball for me is SOOOO SITUATIONAL

5 lines is not less juice, stop saying it, I did the math in the last post.

[sportshaveballs]

You can chat with me on twitter @sportshaveballs we can discuss lots of situations if you want. I love other peoples point of view. I also believe winning bet is a good bet losing bet is a bad bet. LONG RUN is what its about. I also THANK you for your comments

5 lines is not less juice, stop saying it, I did the math in the last post.

[sportshaveballs]

This angle involves finding a slight to average underdog. During your research you find out this dog can hit this pitcher. So, you have 2 bets to make where the chances of going 2-0 far outweigh the chances of going 0-2. You take the underdog +.5 and take the over 3.5 runs thru the 5 innings. There are only 4 ways to go 0-2 and that’s if your team trails after 5 innings, 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0. So, when you see this run-line and total, you research, it all comes together for the perfect storm. RESEARCH ALWAYS THE KEY

[sportshaveballs]

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