Bit too soon to call that I think. Remember, $100 was the new $120. And $120 was the new $160.

waiting a while for our wire to go through at Bitstamp. my deposit seems to have cancelled itself, which is odd. My wires are usually dead fast. Looking on China QQ, a bunch of people planned to arb the gap with profits too, but can't. Quite a few people complaining.

There's a lower underlying trend line. Expect to bounce off that.

China futures are trading around Y3500, a full Y1500 lower than BTCChina price.

It's only a matter of time. As soon as bitstamp sort their banking out, the gap will crumble.

Hack?

Based on the weekly VWAP. How many weeks this year have we been above $250? 3?

Where were we in January?


Actually -- you could pick almost any number below $250, and the rise would still be very satisfactory.

Or, the balls of bitcoin might need twice as long to recharge, after splurging twice in one year. Who knows?

I'm a big fan of white tea (Chinese) from Fujian. it's been dried less, so there's even more goodies than in green tea.

Not sure about calm -- plenty of caffiene, but it certainly makes you more alive. There's a reason the British empire was built on tea imports.

I'll send some for 0.01BTC + p&p

Futures are 500 kuai lower and likely to fall further. BTC looking risky, lots of people will be looking to arb the gap with Bitstamp instead and bide their time.

$250 by year-end is still absolutely meteoric -- wouldn't be averse to it going even lower.

$1000+ by year-end is ridiculous. $500 is pretty questionable even. I'm in this for the long haul.

Every investor?

I think the people that won the incredible game of pass the bag will not risk driving the price up for a while. The last few investors that joined the game late before learning the rules will likely have to wait.

Did you try BTCChina with 0% fees? Even they describe it as "A new trading experience". For most users, particularly new panic buyers, this experience is probably quite far from "investing".

BTC was huge all year. It still is. The price is not tied to that.

$250 much more likely bottom. It will take time. Months.

Agreed, it's not this simple. Of course the bubble didn't run out due to lack of fiat! People need to have logical consistency. During the rise everyone was proclaiming "We can't crash, there are too many exchanges, they can't all fail!". Now the same group of people are shouting "All the exchanges are out of fiat!". It doesn't make any sense.

Look at China: Fiat to the exchanges in under 5 minutes, but buying is subdued. The crash isn't because of "lack of fiat", it's because "areyoumotherfuckinginsaneitjustrose1700%"!

Boring period incoming. Thank Bitcoin -- chance to focus on your family over Christmas instead of checking the price every 20 seconds.

FTFY

OK, they will come -- but much later. Look at China: Fiat to the exchanges in under 5 minutes, but buying is subdued. The crash isn't because of "lack of fiat", it's because "areyoumotherfuckinginsaneitjustrose1700%"!

A properly encrypted wallet stored on a few LUKS encrypted USB keys is the best bet IMO. Higher up the priority list is obviously, using a secure operating system, and only doing sane things on the computer you use for encryption.

Anyway, as to your original question: You're asking the wrong question. The real question should be, when do you start buying again in order to dollar cost average. My opinion -- we have a long way to go down yet. Initial bounce was to $500. We'll likely see a floor of half that, briefly. So anything above $300 isn't all that attractive right now.

Gabriella, you talk in very broad brush strokes. You should check yourself when you find yourself saying ridiculous things like "every one of the 1.3 billion", and "complete lack of morals".

The main thrust of your argument, after the above hubris, was that basically Bitcoin is too small right now for the government to care about.

On that score, you're right.

I'd also advise anyone against the knee-jerk reaction that anything new must be regulated. Cryptocurrencies are trust-agnostic... they aren't inherently anti-government.

Or put it another way. We think cryptocurrencies are great because we don't need to trust a central authority. Governments might think cryptocurrencies are great because they don't need to trust the people.

This was all already priced in by the time the hearing started.  *never* buy on news.

Remember all the good news we had in April too? Actually the FinCEN guidance was largely viewed as bullish when it was released too, accompanied by relatively positive talks by government officials. But it was manipulated to fit the bear narrative. This government approach is nothing new.

The truth is, we rose too fast.  Still way up week on week. Medium term, we can't rise at this pace, and need to correct. We have a fair way down to go yet.  

I think you are forgetting that we've only been above 266 for 3 short weeks.

Cool

I'll consider  buying some off you at 266

Great fake wall of China