You're pessimist. 0.1 minimum ;-) Dream world! :9 Before I went all in into Darkcoin I made a following calculation (mind you, I do NOT see DRK as a shadowy proposition at all) * 22.67% of the world's economy is shadow economy; * if Bitcoin is (controlled) and DRK not; if 100% of all legal transactions are made in BTC, 22.67% are still left for DRK * on May 29, 2014, DRK = $10.96 vs. BTC = $614.38 * on May 29, 2014 DRK / BTC 0.01811 * on May 29, 2014 BTC MC is $7,885,362,984 * on May 29, 2014 DRK MC is $47,580,747 * DRK / BTC MC ratio is >>> 0.603405919 ( on May 29, 2014) * if DRK goes to parity of 1 DRK = 1 BTC, DRK MC would be 2667567714 * 1 DRK = 1 BRC gives DRK MC of >>> 33.82923029 % of the BTC MC * 22.67% shadow economy vs. 33.83% max MC ratio ~ DRK = 0.80 BTC is kind kind of a max value for DRK * 4,450% growth in DRK price, or 44.50 more than today is possible What?  I don't really see the logic in this. |
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Bot confirmed on Cryptsy generating volume by buying into its own sell order. If this was real market activity, the price would skyrocket as the sell side is very weak. Sadly it's fake volume |
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For a similar run like the one in May we would need volume. And we don't have ANY Apparently noone wants to sell, and noone wants to buy at the moment. |
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balu on 10:56:27 AM----Close enough to sound true, without being true  I do occasionally mine DRK. The current split is the other way around 37.5% to the masternodes and 62.5% to the miners, but not all blocks go to the masternodes  4.64 DRK Block reward, should equate 2.90DRK reward to miners, but because a lot of blocks do not go to the masternodes (I have Darksend switched off on my wallet) the effective rewards to miners average 3.42DRK per block (thank you darkcoin.miningpoolhub.com for their block statistics). 576 Blocks a day, equals 2,672DRK a day and this equals 975,513DRK per annum. At BTC price of 0.007, the entire per annum production is only work 6826BTC at a BTC price of $230 (thank you Bitstamp for BTC price 15:25GMT) equals $1,570,200 per annum net value. This is insufficient for any manufacturers to develop an ASIC miner, if potential sales are 50% of the value of potential DRK production in 1st year of production ($785,100) and these sales equate to a 10% profit margin $78,510 and 10% of this is spent on research and development this equals a R&D budget of just $7,851. You can see, you cannot finance the R&D costs of creating a piece of new silicon for X11. It takes about 9-12 months to research and develop new silicon for algorithms designed for GPU's. From the scrypt algorithm's history, 2013 LTC price reached an average $11. Per annum production is 10,512,000 (this is x10 DRK's yearly production). This equated to BTC value 0.0478 per LTC (at BTC's price today) and per annum production was worth 502,473BTC or $115,568,790. This use to work out to be: 50% of yearly production being potential sales $57,784,4395 in the 1st year, which use to work out to be potential profits (at 10% of turnover) $5,778,439, which worked out to fund a $577,843 R&D budget. Four manufacturer succeeded in bringing to market ASIC equipment in 2014 (Gridseed, Zeus, KCNminer, Innosilicon). This allows us to divide the research and development costs of new ASIC silicon by 4 equaling $144,460, but we will say 5 to turn this into the worse case scenario for DRK, £115,568  Now, we can reverse the macro economic model to forecast the price at which DRK would become attractive for ASIC manufacturers to develop new silicon  $115,568 R&D, require profits of £1,155,680 which equate to sales turnover being around $11,556,800. Since, turnover is 50% of annual production in the 1st year (it declines by 50% per annum assuming prices hold up to new Fiat Currency withdrawals from the system to pay for ASICs) then net per annum value of DRK production will need to be $23,113,600, which would price each coin at $23.69 or 0.103BTC per coin  Let's face facts, only a kamikaze manufacturer would develop an X11 ASIC silicon at the moment, when the price passes $18 one or two might take on the risks, but we are nowhere near those prices Thanks for the input, added it to my article (revised/extended my previous post): http://darkcoin.guide/kb/are-asics-a-threat-to-darkcoin/It's long so I don't want to post it here. |
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Currently 37.5% goes to miners, which is expected to increase, which will be 57.5% by this time next year.
Really nice write up. I believe the word miners is a typo, should be Masternodes! Indeed, Masternodes.  The calculation is fine, I just mixed up the words  |
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Currently 37.5% goes to miners, which is expected to increase, which will be 57.5% by this time next year.
Really nice write up. I believe the word miners is a typo, should be Masternodes! Thanks, will rephrase/extend it once i get back home from work. |
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if you have an account, can you post this unswer in the comments? Or do you mind if i do it later (if i dont forget...)?
Sure I can, I just need some confirmation here that my logic is correct |
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Well, just some math. 576 blocks / day 4,65 DRK / block ------------------- ~2680 DRK / day Currently 37.5% goes to miners, which is expected to increase, which will be 57.5% by this time next year. If i understood correctly, ASICS are not expected to be out before that. This means only 42.5% will be distributed between miners. -------------- ~1138 DRK / day In a year from now DRK supply will be reduced by 7% --------------------------------------- ~1058 DRK / day To make it easier, let's use 1000 DRK / day for further calculations (feel free to adjust the end results by 5% due to this) The three ASIC models in the article range from 900 to 7500 USD. Let's use the average of 2500 USD (assuming more units are sold from the cheaper version, which may not be true at all). " For their business model to work, they reportedly have to sell 4,000 units before they produce one. " ------------------------- Let's assume that 4000 units will be sold for 2500$ each. That's 10 million USD, basically the current market cap of DRK. It's easy to see that with today's prices it would be impossible to make a positive ROI. Why? If 4000 units will be mining, the 1000 DRK / day generated will be distributed evenly, resulting in 0.25 DRK / day for each ASIC. With today's prices, that's an astonishing 0.25 * 1.6 USD = 0.4 USD ROI in this case would be 6250 days, assuming no more people buying ASICs (impossible), DRK supply not decreasing (impossible due to the 7% yearly decrease), and the mining share of all coins generated not decreasing (unlikely based on the current plan). Nonetheless, let's calculate with this 0.25 DRK / day. Should DRK to BTC ratio raise to 0.07 (3 times ATH), the result is 4 USD / day. If at the same time BTC to USD raises tenfold as well to 2500, the yield is 40 USD / day. Which makes it roughly two months to get the initial investment back. Minus electricity. The same 2500 USD would net ~1500 DRK currently, and within a year it would generate an additional ~180 (0.5 * 365). With the prices above one DRK would be priced at 160 USD. 1680 * 160 USD = 268800 USD Conclusion: ------------- There is no financial incentive currently for miners to switch for ASIC, assuming the minimum 4000 asic units needed, and the 2500$ unit price. Should any of these change by more than 1 orders on magnitude, it might be viable with today's prices. But even then, buying the coins directly and setting up a masternode would be a WAY better investment. I could go on for pages with the analysis, but I hope this was enough. The only reason why ASICs would be worth buying is if someone wants to attack the network. But seeing that creating such an ASIC costs millions, this is hardly an issue currently. So people, there is basically no reason to be afraid of ASICs for now. If anyone finds a flaw in my logic above, please elaborate. |
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Navajocoin – State Of The Art Anonymous Network Now In Beta Testing http://www.btcfeed.net/coins/navajocoin-state-art-anonymous-network-now-beta-testing/What do you think about this: "Darksend does have a few flaws. Flaw #1, Denomination fee. The denomination fee is always 0.0125 DRK per participant. There are always 3 participants per Darsend Tx making it a total of 0.0375 DRK. While the Darksend Tx has to be of the same size for everyone due to anonymity implications, the fee itself is not mixed, meaning it will always link to the origin of the funds before they entered the Darksend process. Flaw #2, Liquidity and denomination size. Currently, there are different denomination sizes of which the most common ones are 1.00000001, 10.00000001 and 100.00000001 with the latter one being used less frequently than the other 2. There are higher Darksend denomiation sizes but they are rarely used. Also, we all know there is currently a liquidity problem resulting in long waiting times when trying to create a Darksend transaction." Are the flaws of DRKCoin Important????What's your suggestions??? Outdated flaws. DRK is changing fast, it's already totally different to the version Kristov did the review on. |
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Is darkcoin's block reward specifically designed to amplify bubbles and busts?
"Block reward is controlled by: 2222222/(((Difficulty+2600)/9)^2)"
Difficulty follows price.
Two scenarios.
1) Price goes up
Mining becomes more profitable. More people mine DRK. Difficulty goes up.
Block reward gets smaller (denominator of fraction gets bigger) which the supply to dry up.
Bubble inflates even faster. Ends in a magnificent crash.
2) Price goes down
Mining becomes less profitable. Less people mine DRK. Difficulty goes down.
Block reward gets bigger (denominator of fraction gets smaller) which causes even more coins to come onto the market.
Crash becomes even worse. Coin becomes severely oversold.
What is the rationale behind intentionally making bubbles and crashes bigger in magnitude?
This guy has a point !  This is more like a feature that was used to protect the coin in its infancy. The smallest possible block reward is 5DRK, no matter if the difficulty is 5000 or 80000. And we are already here, no further decrease is possible based on difficulty. Should the hashrate drop significantly due to whatever reason, the increased reward will incentivize miners, thus stabilizing the currency. DRK has less coins generated per day compared to BTC, and WAY less than LTC: DRK: 576*5 = 2880 coins / day, out of which 1080 goes to masternodes LTC: 576*50 = 28800 coins / day BTC: 144*25 = 3600 coins / day Compared to the amount of coins already on the market: DRK 2880 / 5000000 = 0.0576 % daily inflation LTC: 28800 / 35900000 = 0.08 % daily inflation BTC: 3600 / 13763000 = 0.026 % daily inflation The amount of coins generated is further distributed between miners and masternodes. What I'd like to point out with this is that in case of a buggle/bust, it's not the amount of coins generated daily that matter the most, as it's only a small fraction of the total available. DGW is only in place to protect the blockchain by incentivizing miners, making sure that the hashrate won't drop below a certain point. Take a look at bitcoin hashrate - did it significantly decrease (orders of magnitude I mean) in case of a bust? Nope. You shouldn't be afraid of it happening here either. |
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Any ETA for turning enforcement on? Only 30% of MNs on latest version.
About Mintpal: I got mine out when Mintpal v2 was launched. I simply logged in and trasfered them to my wallet.
Some other alt of mine got stuck, I've already waved goodbye to those coins.
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Being a large holder of DRK, my interest coincides with Dark's, the walls are a floor that does help to protect against dumps as it will adsorb all that's thrown at them, we will never again see any sub 0.006 price for instance.
And this is why it's awesome to have you on board. I was just trying to make people aware of the risks as well, along with the fact that they should not count on you alone "pumping" the price by moving your walls up. |
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otoh, please move your walls to 68 ! If the price of DRK depends on 1-2 people that's quite sad for us all. It's also bad for the currency if 1 holder has such a significant share (no offense). I'm all for a price surge, but counting on 1 person to buy all available on the market is not the way to do it. |
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Good to see all the recent developments and the minor price increase as well.
While a quick price surge would be unfounded at the moment, it would give some great publicity - and since the fundamentals of DRK are WAY stronger compared to May 2014, i guess many more would stick with the coin for long term.
So this is a rare scenario where I believe a quick surge would be more beneficial than a healthy steady growth. Not that my opinion makes a difference in the actions taken on the market - I'll just sit back hoping.
Did my part by converting all LTC of mine to DRK.
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Cryptsy seems to be down atm
It's working fine for me. |
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Worst case scenario you reinstall the server. No big deal.
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Hey guys, Revamped the news section of darkcoin.guide, available here: http://darkcoin.guide/newsPlease let me know what you think. Also, if anyone knows of other news sources, I'll gladly include them. Only quality sources without spam content though. Hey, balu! I want you to know that I am interested in working with you, and I have given your site a mention on THIS WEEK IN THE DARK | December 6th - 13th, that comes out tomorrow. Are you on Darkcointalk? If so, I will start a conversation with you and we can combine forces... I'm really excited for that possibility of you, Tungfa, and I coming up with a Darkcoin Supersite! Cheers, Tao Wrote to you on darkcointalk. Sure I am there |
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Hey guys, Revamped the news section of darkcoin.guide, available here: http://darkcoin.guide/newsPlease let me know what you think. Also, if anyone knows of other news sources, I'll gladly include them. Only quality sources without spam content though. |
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Looks like Holger put it together! Wow, I didn't know it existed either. I wonder if he is working on it in the background and is getting ready to spring it on us, but you uncovered it first Holger shouted about it quite a lot a few months back. The idea is that it is a wiki that anybody can contribute to. I guess people were too busy actually testing to contribute/update! Cool, Ok, another call to action, LOL This is why I created my site - I saw too many wikis / guides abandoned like this. We need to concentrate such efforts imho. |
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