Yes, I will start with the game against Hoffenheim staking amount X and then go all-in until I lose or end of season is reached. I do not really believe that Bayern will not lose a game this season - it will be some unlikely one, maybe at Freiburg/Union/Stuttgart etc. before or after some important CL match - but you don't have to risk a lot here with odds @100 to make it some fun. It's a nice little "challenge" and the first real test will be in round 7 @Dortmund, where I will play X2 then. Lets see how far I can get


If I am not mistaken, the city of Wolfsburg is still located in the middle of Germany, so no travelling for them apart from the one to Freiburg on Saturday

I think the odds are fine/fair. Wolfsburg is super strong defensively and I also liked their overall performance against Leverkusen. Freiburg can beat anyone at home on any day, but Wolfsburg is really tough to beat in away games. And they are different caliber than Stuttgart; way different. I guess this will be a draw in the end (0-0/1/1).

And it's no given that Santamaria will already be in starting XI, you know Streich and that he doesn't care about names I also doubt that Santamaria is plug and play for Freiburg, it will take some time until he can help them.

Here are mine:

Hertha BSC - Eintracht Frankfurt
Eibar - Athletic Bilbao
Brighton & Hove Albion - Manchester United DRAW
Bayer 04 Leverkusen - RB Leipzig DRAW
Watford - Luton Town
West Bromwich Albion - Chelsea
Inter - Fiorentina
Burnley - Southampton
Real Betis - Real Madrid
Napoli - Genoa
1899 Hoffenheim - Bayern München
Manchester City - Leicester City
Galatasaray - Fenerbahçe (why are all on X or 2 so far ?)
Roma - Juventus DRAW
Barcelona - Villarreal

This looks relatively easy for this week, but there will surely be some outcomes, where you are

For those who still have to make their picks, here is some data from the 4 users who already published their picks:

Consensus: Watford, Inter, Real Madrid, Napoli, ManCity, Bayern

Gala match has already all possible outcomes picked

The match-ups and average odds for round 2:

1. Bundesliga


Source: https://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/germany/bundesliga/

Nothing really interesting at first glance. Gladbach should have no problems with Union, but odds are too low. Augsburg can maybe make it close at home against Dortmund, with some luck they might get a point here. Will be interesting to see what Mainz does will all the drama around Szalai, which speaks for good team chemistry and Stuttgart is overrated - maybe something to jump in inplay.

I will start my 33-legged parlay with Bayern this weekend. I calculated with average odds of 1.15 and this will give me total odds of @100.xx for this parlay. So if I start with lets say 100,- Euro and Bayern doesn't lose this season in Bundesliga (will play some double chances for the harder matches), I will sit at 10.000 Euro in May. Lets go Bayern

2. Bundesliga


Source: https://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/germany/2-bundesliga/

The odds already show how balanced this league is and thus so hard to predict. Nürnberg is too low, while St. Pauli is too high, but only small value, so probably not worth it. Darmstadt - Regensburg should see some goals, since Darmstadt plays very different now with their new coach, who favours a more offensive approach. There were lots of goals in their matches in test matches, cup and also in first round. Paderborn - Hamburg on Monday should be a good one.

No They settle bets according to the official result after the game has finished and they won't change anything (days) later. It's in every bookmaker general rules, for example here from bwin:

Source: https://help.bwin.com/en/general-information/legal-matters/general-terms-and-conditions/sports-betting-general-remarks

In this case, even if the decision was made inside 24 hours, bwin wouldn't have changed the settlement imo, since they made good money with Roma not winning. They just reserve the right to do so.....bookies T&C's

And this rule makes sense in general. Imagine bookies would have to change things years after bets were settled, f.e. for doping cases in the Olympics, where medals were revoked years later. Or Lance Armstrong and his Tour de France wins......this would be a big chaos.

Yep, I think so too (and thats why I created this thread to monitor things and have some discussion going on to get some input). The problem with betting on a red-carded team to win is that it might take some time to pay off and most people don't have the stamina, get frustrated quickly and quit. You will play high-ish odds and you will see lots of money going down the drain at first, before you hit on some of these odds.

I think it's better for the start to go with the result not changing after a red card, i.e. a draw stays a draw at FT, maybe from 1-1 to 2-2, or some handicaps like +1.5 for the remainder of the game, double chances, dnb. As always you would have to be cautious in choosing the right spots/games and not jump into any game that sees a red card. And trading is better than punting here imo, always take at least your initial liability out when things are going your way, until you mastered this special situation in a football match.

I wouldn't take this as an obstacle, but as an opportunity Because if it's difficult, not a lot of people can do it and you can create an edge by putting in the work.
I don't think Cycling is that hard to predict - or not harder than any other sports - and by following the races, you will gain good knowledge about the different riders and their strenghts and weaknesses very fast. By searching for extra information and developing some gut feeling, you can then make money with betting on Cycling. But it's very time consuming and not everyone has this time.


Yes, thats a problem with individual sports in short-term, but not if you think longterm, because everything evens out then. Over the course of thousands of bets, you will lose the same amount of bets due to your rider crashing as you will win bets this way. Unless you are a really unlucky person (which everyone always thinks he is )

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As a good tradition, we also have the first Doping investigation of this years Tour with Arkea-Samsic. Some doping utensils and meds were found in the team hotel. Dayer Quintana is in the centre of this investigation apart from some team staff. And if Dayer is in the mix, you can't help but think that Nairo is involved as well and it might explain his poor performance at this years TdF, i.e. that they had to stop doing it at some point during the race.

But anyway, I still think that 95% of the riders are doped and it's not relevant for betting purposes in the end. I just hate when people/media talk about a clean peloton and everyone (including the pros) is surprised and outraged, when something comes to light. It's just so obvious......

I don't think this is the issue, money is money. I think it might more be for the same reason I haven't seen my name in the leaderboards for ages as well: Your picks are too bad to make it into the (visible) leaderboard But keep on grinding, one day you will get lucky and top the leaderboard.

I hope most of you guys in here are a little more patient when it comes to betting, because if not, you are doomed Just let Exbet do their last fine tuning and wait. There is no point in rushing just to launch something for the sake of it and meet timelines. I don't care if it's 2, 3 or 4 weeks from now on, I want a good product and good things take time. Will be worth the wait.

England

No red cards in first round, but second round had 4.

Everton - WBA
Red card: WBA in 45th minute, score 2-1
Final score: 5-2

WBA managed to score the equalizer after the red card at the beginning of second half, but 3 goals inside 12 minutes sealed the win for Everton. Would have been worth to lay Everton after the red card and trade out after 2-2.

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Newcastle - Brighton
Red card: Brighton in 89th minute, score 0-3
Final score: 0-3

No impact since in the closing stages of an already decided game.

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Chelsea - Liverpool
Red Card: Chelsea 45th minute, score 0-0
Final score: 0-2

Liverpool took advantage nicely of the strenghts in numbers and scored twice directly after half-time. Chelsea managed to get a penalty later, but missed it.

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Aston Villa - Sheffield United
Red card: Sheffield in 12th minute, score 0-0
Final score: 1-0

Sheffield got a penalty to take the lead one man down, but missed it. Aston Villa then took the lead in second half and defended it till the final whistle.

Spain

No red cards in round 2 and just one in round 1.

Eibar - Celta Vigo
Red Card: Eibar in 87th minute, score 0-0
Final score: 0-0

Red card came too late to have any impact.

Italy

Just one red card.

Milan - Bologna
Red Card: Bologna in 88th minute, score 2-0
Final Score: 2-0

Again a late red card with no impact.


Germany

No red cards in first round.

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Not very telling so far since 50% of the red cards were late. In the games where they were early-ish, two teams did good and would have given a trade profit (lets assume Sheffield normally does not miss the penalty ).

It was just some statistical input, since no dog has won thus far this week. Odds are low I agree and that could be the trap I can't really make a point for the Raiders other than that they should be super motivated to play in prime time in their new stadium in a new location. And some experts say they will have a good season (I am not one of those experts ).

Normally Saints should win this easily and I didn't bet on this game, but will watch a bit.

That Vikings pick was embarrassing The Giants had their chances in the end, but ran out of time at the 15yd line of the Bears. It's no fun watching the Giants, Daniel Jones is just poor and his fumbleritis still isn't cured. Some bad luck with an O-liner from Bears converting a 4th&1 after a deflected pass late in the game, which costed some time. I think I would play that bet again.

This was a week for the favourites. Apart from the Eagles-Rams game, which was ~50/50 priced, all favourites won their games, which is very unusual. You normally have 2-4 upsets, but with the Arlington miracle on top, there were none. Raiders are priced 2.89 against the Saints today - anyone ?


I have no idea what the Falcons players were thinking/doing with that onside kick. They just waited for the ball to go 10 yards and then gazillions of Cowboys players were already around the ball. They could have picked it up inside 10 yards and game over - seems like they didn't know the rules, pathetic, lol


Was impressed with him as well, he didn't look like someone who just plays his first NFL game ever. His throws were a bit off sometimes, but all in all I had a good feeling every time he had the ball in his hands. With some polish and experience, he could be a very good QB in years to come. Wish the Giants picked him in the draft

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Looking at next weeks odds, there is nothing that catches my attention at first glance. Falcons 1.60 against the Bears looks good; maybe not a lot of value, but Bears are still poor despite being 2-0. SNF and MNF will be great with Saints vs Packers and Ravens vs Chiefs

Final result for our little round in here:



Can't access the leaderboard, but were 10 correct ones enough for the top ?

6 home wins, 5 draws, 4 away wins for this week. The last 5 games in the list were decisive for this MM and we did very bad as a group there, only 8/50 = 16%.

Monitoring our picks in here for this weekend and also in the past, it seems that like 99% take the solid favourites (<1.70) always. It makes kind of sense to do the same, since you won't lose nothing, if they don't win. As was stated here, users who picked Lyon not to win this week, will most likely have some more upsets selected and this is a dead end then. It's really about those 5-6 hard to predict games always and I guess you just have to get lucky with those. I still want an over/under MM

I "hate" this stage as well and find it super uninteresting. But it's a tradtition to have it neutralized until the riders enter/see Paris to have some celebrations, drink some champagne on their bikes, talk to opponents and all those things. They have this final stage since 1990 and though it's boring, it gives some incentive for the sprinters to keep going and not leaving the Tour early - thats part of it why the organizers stick with it.

In 1989 was the last time when this was not sprint and they had a TT back then which featured the drama between Greg LeMond and Laurent Fignon. I would love to see the 21st stage being a TT in Paris again; just imagine yesterdays TT would have been the final stage.....amazing ending. But won't happen in the near future and will stay a stage with a sprint royale on the Champs-Élysées.

Well, Paderborn were really pathetic, they just can't get anything going offensively, what also was the issue last season. Kiel had no problems defending the 1-0 and deservedly won.

Paderborn has a tough upcoming schedule:

(H) Hamburg
(A) Heidenheim
(H) Hannover

If they keep on playing like they did today, they may find themselves at the bottom of the table after these games and then coach Baumgart might have to leave (whom they kept through the Bundesliga season and the relegation, because they like him. But sometimes it just doesn't work out no more).

Boring games all in all in 2. Bundesliga today, there are just too many teams that rather take the draw instead of going for three points, risking to lose a game here and there. This is also the coaches "fault" imo, because with draws, no one will question them

Hehe, so if WOB-LEV finishes with a draw and you win a prize I will get 4/15 share ? jk
Actually I don't always pick the outcome I expect, but sometimes even for the MM I go for the outcome that has the most value for me. This is probably a bad approach for this promo, but being correct on some little upsets seperates you from the masses then. If you are wrong, you are done though^^


Thanks for pointing this out, completely missed that one, since I don't follow ENG2

For 2. Bundesliga today, I can't understand why Kiel would be favourite against Paderborn Kiel has a good team, but Paderborn has more quality and they were able to keep their core together after relegating from Bundesliga. Paderborn dnb @2.16 is my bet here and I will lay Kiel again, if they take the lead.
What is more interesting in this game though is goals, since both teams like to play attacking football and have the personnel for it. Over 3.5 @2.4.

No, that is something that is not "allowed" in the TdF - you don't attack the yellow jersey on the Paris stage Maybe if it's <10sec it would be ok with the peloton, but with 59sec Pogacar has basically 21 teams at his disposal today, if Jumbo tries something. And his team is weak for the mountain stages, but on a flat stage like today it's still ok, although they lost 2 guys. Pogacar can only not win the TdF this year, if he crashes and dnf's, but this is very unlikely.

Jumbo just rode a tactically shitty race in the last days, where you had the impression Pogacar actually belongs to the team as well. If your opponent has no team support in the mountains, you have to be a bit smarter to tire him and/or make him work.

9/15 games done and @Trofo is doing very good:



Lots of green in general, because all favourites managed to win their games today (well, Roma.....but away is always difficult). That Celta match could prove costly for all of us, apart from rdbase who anticipated that one correctly (and it was a deserved win for Celta).

Trofo you have 4 draws out 6 games tomorrow, which is a lot, but everything is possible If you hit 3 of those, I am pretty sure you will take some prize home.

What a TT from Pogacar, dear lord, this was so impressive But Roglic was a bit off today as well. Still this unbelievable and I never thought this could happen, just like anyone else in here.

Porte also with a super strong race today. These mountain(eous) TT's often produce some surprise results.


Schachmann did a very good TT, but Oliveira super disappointing, thought he would Top10 here. At least Kragh did his job, although it was close, only 12sec faster than TdG.

Trying my luck with Augsburg ML today @3.35 since this is too high imo. Second season after promotion is often the harder/hardest one and I expect Union to do bad this season and relegate again. They already had their troubles in cup game against Karlsruhe and with Andersson they lost a very important player upfront (they added Max Kruse, but he won't start today). I like Augsburgs squad and especially offensively they have good quality and depth with Caligiuri, Vargas, Finnbogason, Niederlechner, Gregoritsch and Hahn.

And a little fun bet on top with "any other away win" @36, which means Augsburg has to win and score at least 4 goals while doing so. Union is normally doing good defensively and don't concede a lot at home, but this is a new season with lots of unknowns, so lets see