The Cycling Thread

[tyKiwanuka]

I always like to bet on ITT's, since you can follow your bets so easily. And ITT's in general are exciting to watch, also from an aesthetic point of view; a good TTer is just a beauty to watch.

Today we will have an ITT with a (long) mountain top finish, which is very rare in cycling, so there is some uncertainty in the markets, although we got a pretty clear picture about the riders and what they are capable of atm, since we could watch them on a daily basis in the last 3 weeks.

Oliveira tb Schachmann @1.83 7/10
Schachmann is a good TTer, but he broke his collarbone just before the TdF and he is not in top form. Oliveira is often invisible in the peloton on normal stages - one of so many unsung heroes. But when an ITT is scheduled, that is his time to shine. He did very well on a similar course in the World Championships 2017 in Bergen and I expect him to do very good today - a day where he can ride for himself and doesn't have to take care of his captains.

Kragh Andersen tb De Gendt @2.37 3/10
Normally I don't like to bet on a rider, who just had a huge win the other day. But Kragh said he will go full throttle and his form is amazing at the moment. TdG was a bit disappointing during the Tour, his form just isn't there. He can be an exceptional TTer, but today is maybe a bit too hard for him anyway.

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[babygun]

I always like to bet on ITT's, since you can follow your bets so easily. And ITT's in general are exciting to watch, also from an aesthetic point of view; a good TTer is just a beauty to watch.

Today we will have an ITT with a (long) mountain top finish, which is very rare in cycling, so there is some uncertainty in the markets, although we got a pretty clear picture about the riders and what they are capable of atm, since we could watch them on a daily basis in the last 3 weeks.

Oliveira tb Schachmann @1.83 7/10
Schachmann is a good TTer, but he broke his collarbone just before the TdF and he is not in top form. Oliveira is often invisible in the peloton on normal stages - one of so many unsung heroes. But when an ITT is scheduled, that is his time to shine. He did very well on a similar course in the World Championships 2017 in Bergen and I expect him to do very good today - a day where he can ride for himself and doesn't have to take care of his captains.

Kragh Andersen tb De Gendt @2.37 3/10
Normally I don't like to bet on a rider, who just had a huge win the other day. But Kragh said he will go full throttle and his form is amazing at the moment. TdG was a bit disappointing during the Tour, his form just isn't there. He can be an exceptional TTer, but today is maybe a bit too hard for him anyway.

Oliveira before Schachmann is a good bet, placed this bet also!
I don't like to bet against De Gendt, he hasn't really done anything this year in the TDF, but he can always surprise and even finish in the top 3 today.

[tyKiwanuka]

Yes the competition is already dead since almost one week. Primoz will win the race in 2 days at Paris.
He only need to be a little bit careful and to not fall.

What a TT from Pogacar, dear lord, this was so impressive But Roglic was a bit off today as well. Still this unbelievable and I never thought this could happen, just like anyone else in here.

Porte also with a super strong race today. These mountain(eous) TT's often produce some surprise results.

Oliveira tb Schachmann @1.83 7/10
Kragh Andersen tb De Gendt @2.37 3/10

Schachmann did a very good TT, but Oliveira super disappointing, thought he would Top10 here. At least Kragh did his job, although it was close, only 12sec faster than TdG.

[morvillz7z]

What just happened?  

I swear this was the best TT i've seen recently, maybe ever, so much drama for the tour and stage win, top3, polka dot, absolutely insane.
One bad day and you lose everything, after you and your team have completely dominated throughout these three weeks.
Congrats to the young Slovenian, he did it! He will be the first rider since Merckx to win the yellow jersey, polka dot and the jersey for under 25 in the same tour/year.
Porte also had a great day and made the podium, i'm really happy for him!

look at W. Van Aert and Dumoulin's faces: https://i.ibb.co/17RHcjH/dfzhdhf.jpg (image source: https://www.eurosportplayer.com/)

hehe that gotta hurt...

So I think Roglic with his team will try to make something today even if it's almost hopeless.

That's not how it works, the final stage is always a parade, there will be only champagne toasts and pictures taken between the riders, and of course a Champs-Élysées sprint. Jumbo-Visma and Roglic will be chilling in the main group, licking their wounds...
 

[Saint-loup]

Yes the competition is already dead since almost one week. Primoz will win the race in 2 days at Paris.
He only need to be a little bit careful and to not fall.

What a TT from Pogacar, dear lord, this was so impressive But Roglic was a bit off today as well. Still this unbelievable and I never thought this could happen, just like anyone else in here.

Porte also with a super strong race today. These mountain(eous) TT's often produce some surprise results.

Oliveira tb Schachmann @1.83 7/10
Kragh Andersen tb De Gendt @2.37 3/10

Schachmann did a very good TT, but Oliveira super disappointing, thought he would Top10 here. At least Kragh did his job, although it was close, only 12sec faster than TdG.

Yes it's an incredible twist. But Pogacar hasn't a strong team, unlike Roglic. So I think Roglic with his team will try to make something today even if it's almost hopeless.

[tyKiwanuka]

Yes it's an incredible twist. But Pogacar hasn't a strong team, unlike Roglic. So I think Roglic with his team will try to make something today even if it's almost hopeless.

No, that is something that is not "allowed" in the TdF - you don't attack the yellow jersey on the Paris stage Maybe if it's <10sec it would be ok with the peloton, but with 59sec Pogacar has basically 21 teams at his disposal today, if Jumbo tries something. And his team is weak for the mountain stages, but on a flat stage like today it's still ok, although they lost 2 guys. Pogacar can only not win the TdF this year, if he crashes and dnf's, but this is very unlikely.

Jumbo just rode a tactically shitty race in the last days, where you had the impression Pogacar actually belongs to the team as well. If your opponent has no team support in the mountains, you have to be a bit smarter to tire him and/or make him work.

[Cnut237]

It's been a weird Tour this year, with the Covid disruption and the uncertainty at the normally ultra-professional Ineos machine. I don't think we expected Bernal to crack in the way that he did. Of course if Thomas and Froome had been there and in top condition, the story could have been very different. I don't know if it was overconfidence based on years of domination, and Ineos just thought they could send any old team out and still destroy the opposition... but obviously that was not what happened this year. Perhaps Bernal wasn't able to cope with being the sole focus of the team, and this combined with the fact that their team was weaker than usual led to the failure. Either way, with Froome leaving this year feels like it's a bit of a reset for Ineos. Perhaps they could have won with a stronger team, perhaps not, but it does seem like the dominant force may be crumbling a bit.

[Saint-loup]

Yes it's an incredible twist. But Pogacar hasn't a strong team, unlike Roglic. So I think Roglic with his team will try to make something today even if it's almost hopeless.

No, that is something that is not "allowed" in the TdF - you don't attack the yellow jersey on the Paris stage

If Roglic doesn't try to do anything today, it will be an insult toward the competition and the spectators(and bettors). He will act like a loser. Shame on him.  

[Peanutswar]

Wow, there are a lot of members too right here are loved cycling too. I'm from in to the country who is only few people are supporting the use the cycling and I'm being one of the people who is just wanna try to ride on the Tour de France or just watching the game, it gives a different hype to my self because those are the competition of different members who has a different capability to win the game. I'm planning soon try to come into another country but right now I need to earn more money and wait for the covid will gone because some of the countries forbidden the transportation to avoid spreading the covid.

I only have right now a mountain bike because I love to see falls and mountain, also I have a road bike but I use this in few times because only few of my friends are available.

[aesma]

What a crazy TT ! Of course now people are talking about doping... But I thought you could quite see that aside from physical form, technique, strength, that both riders have, psychology played a role. Pogacar was very motivated, and once he knew he was making time, he was just on another planet, that will probably remain the TT of his life.

On the other hand Roglic lost composure and smelt defeat.

Yes it's an incredible twist. But Pogacar hasn't a strong team, unlike Roglic. So I think Roglic with his team will try to make something today even if it's almost hopeless.

No, that is something that is not "allowed" in the TdF - you don't attack the yellow jersey on the Paris stage

If Roglic doesn't try to do anything today, it will be an insult toward the competition and the spectators(and bettors). He will act like a loser. Shame on him. 

So are you losing a lot of money if Roglic doesn't win ?

I think the last stage should be like any other, but it isn't so, and hasn't been for a long time. Just before his loss Roglic was saying in the newspapers that he wanted to be more known and liked by the French public, well, I don't think breaking convention would do that.

If he was 99% sure to win the Tour by attacking, then OK, but the stage is flat, it's bound to end in a sprint, and thus there is no way to make back the time. He had weeks to build a bigger time buffer, he should have done it.

[Saint-loup]

So are you losing a lot of money if Roglic doesn't win ?

LOL   you take me for a crying baby?
No I didn't bet anything on him.

I think the last stage should be like any other, but it isn't so, and hasn't been for a long time. Just before his loss Roglic was saying in the newspapers that he wanted to be more known and liked by the French public, well, I don't think breaking convention would do that.

If he was 99% sure to win the Tour by attacking, then OK, but the stage is flat, it's bound to end in a sprint, and thus there is no way to make back the time. He had weeks to build a bigger time buffer, he should have done it.

It just shows that this final stage in Paris is useless and should be changed. Maybe a longer distance could be more interesting or another town.

[tyKiwanuka]

It just shows that this final stage in Paris is useless and should be changed. Maybe a longer distance could be more interesting or another town.

I "hate" this stage as well and find it super uninteresting. But it's a tradtition to have it neutralized until the riders enter/see Paris to have some celebrations, drink some champagne on their bikes, talk to opponents and all those things. They have this final stage since 1990 and though it's boring, it gives some incentive for the sprinters to keep going and not leaving the Tour early - thats part of it why the organizers stick with it.

In 1989 was the last time when this was not sprint and they had a TT back then which featured the drama between Greg LeMond and Laurent Fignon. I would love to see the 21st stage being a TT in Paris again; just imagine yesterdays TT would have been the final stage.....amazing ending. But won't happen in the near future and will stay a stage with a sprint royale on the Champs-Élysées.

[babygun]

It was an interesting Tour De France this year with a surprising ending! I thought that Roglic would even win some time against Pogacar in the TT, but guess I was wrong  .
Pogacar deserved the win, especially as his team was not able to really support him.

[so98nn]

As of now I never thought about gambling on the cycling competitions since I find it very difficult to predict the racing results. It sucks to see the long marathon of cycling and you barely understand whose running forward and backward. Lolz. 

I have recently started with the cycling fever and it is all out of the fear of covid to be honest! You may ask what the heck is that? Honestly I had little time for exercise and to boost the immunity an exercise workout is mandatory on daily basis. This led me to research best possible way to workout and here I am, cycling! Never had much interest in it, but since the time I started doing it early in the morning I was so amused with the energy that it drives through our body.

I tried betting on the bet365 and william hills but my poor judgment about the cyclist never gave me good results so always pulled off.

Never though I will see whole thread on bitcointalk.

I may not be talking relevant to the Tours and competitions you guys talking about, but thought to express myself.

[Cnut237]

I never thought about gambling on the cycling competitions since I find it very difficult to predict the racing results.

Team sports are probably more reliable than individual sports, because you spread the risk of errors. If one player in a football team makes an error, it can certainly have a negative effect, but not so much as if a cyclist makes an error. The risk is spread. And the problem of individual errors becomes more extreme with how dangerous the sport is - if a runner trips up, they can get back on their feet and try to rejoin the pack... but if a cyclist crashes, there's a reasonable chance that they are out of the race entirely. If we add in the inherent uncertainty in cycling, things like mass pile-ups, the person in front of you crashes or does something stupid and you pile into them... or even just the chaos of racing over wet ground or cobbles... one tiny error at high speed can mean the end of your chances... and this isn't the case in a lot of other sports.

[tyKiwanuka]

I never thought about gambling on the cycling competitions since I find it very difficult to predict the racing results.

I wouldn't take this as an obstacle, but as an opportunity Because if it's difficult, not a lot of people can do it and you can create an edge by putting in the work.
I don't think Cycling is that hard to predict - or not harder than any other sports - and by following the races, you will gain good knowledge about the different riders and their strenghts and weaknesses very fast. By searching for extra information and developing some gut feeling, you can then make money with betting on Cycling. But it's very time consuming and not everyone has this time.

~snip~

Yes, thats a problem with individual sports in short-term, but not if you think longterm, because everything evens out then. Over the course of thousands of bets, you will lose the same amount of bets due to your rider crashing as you will win bets this way. Unless you are a really unlucky person (which everyone always thinks he is )


As a good tradition, we also have the first Doping investigation of this years Tour with Arkea-Samsic. Some doping utensils and meds were found in the team hotel. Dayer Quintana is in the centre of this investigation apart from some team staff. And if Dayer is in the mix, you can't help but think that Nairo is involved as well and it might explain his poor performance at this years TdF, i.e. that they had to stop doing it at some point during the race.

But anyway, I still think that 95% of the riders are doped and it's not relevant for betting purposes in the end. I just hate when people/media talk about a clean peloton and everyone (including the pros) is surprised and outraged, when something comes to light. It's just so obvious......

[babygun]

I never thought about gambling on the cycling competitions since I find it very difficult to predict the racing results.

I wouldn't take this as an obstacle, but as an opportunity Because if it's difficult, not a lot of people can do it and you can create an edge by putting in the work.
I don't think Cycling is that hard to predict - or not harder than any other sports - and by following the races, you will gain good knowledge about the different riders and their strenghts and weaknesses very fast. By searching for extra information and developing some gut feeling, you can then make money with betting on Cycling. But it's very time consuming and not everyone has this time.

~snip~

Yes, thats a problem with individual sports in short-term, but not if you think longterm, because everything evens out then. Over the course of thousands of bets, you will lose the same amount of bets due to your rider crashing as you will win bets this way. Unless you are a really unlucky person (which everyone always thinks he is )


As a good tradition, we also have the first Doping investigation of this years Tour with Arkea-Samsic. Some doping utensils and meds were found in the team hotel. Dayer Quintana is in the centre of this investigation apart from some team staff. And if Dayer is in the mix, you can't help but think that Nairo is involved as well and it might explain his poor performance at this years TdF, i.e. that they had to stop doing it at some point during the race.

But anyway, I still think that 95% of the riders are doped and it's not relevant for betting purposes in the end. I just hate when people/media talk about a clean peloton and everyone (including the pros) is surprised and outraged, when something comes to light. It's just so obvious......

You can call me naive, but I still think that the peloton nowadays is a lot cleaner then a couple of years ago. You don't really see crazy things anymore (remember Ricardo Ricco  ).
But probably in the next couple of years they will find that some riders didn't ride clean (Quintana, Froome, ... )?

[aesma]

What is funny/sad is that French media (generalist media, not cycling media) was complaining about the performance of French riders, surely the others must be doping and the French are dumb for being clean (basically the subtext of the articles), after the TT this doubled down...then a French team is being investigated for doping !

[famososMuertos]

Wow, there are a lot of members too right here are loved cycling too. I'm from in to the country who is only few people are supporting the use the cycling and I'm being one of the people who is just wanna try to ride on the Tour de France or just watching the game, it gives a different hype to my self because those are the competition of different members who has a different capability to win the game. I'm planning soon try to come into another country but right now I need to earn more money and wait for the covid will gone because some of the countries forbidden the transportation to avoid spreading the covid.

I only have right now a mountain bike because I love to see falls and mountain, also I have a road bike but I use this in few times because only few of my friends are available.

I think that you to like competitive cycling off road, although some sports you don't necessarily have to practice to follow them.

It's kind of confusing to read you and I don't know where you're trying to go with your point in relation to the tour de france. Anyway, I can tell you that the Tour de France is the more important test of cycling,  that allows fans and even those who are not; they should enjoy watching a race every time you can on the tour.

If you do not understand me the excitement caused by the Tour de France even in those who do not follow it throughout the season as shown in the OP, it is something similar to the effect that each soccer World Cup causes in those who find out that soccer exists every 4 years    Although for some the "Champion League" will always be more important. So the wow would be for those who call themselves a sports lover and you ask him about the Tour de France and they say 'how? when'? a bit exaggerated, but it is the emotion.

In any case, on topic, a shame the information in development about Quintana ... although I do not say it because he is guilty / innocent but that the subject itself is complicated.

[perla]

I am very sorry for that slovenian who has ridden on cop the entire tour, and then throws everything away in one stage. but it was entertaining. I think it's a shame that the very last stage doesn't play any significant role in the tour. Actually, the winner of the tour is already known on the penultimate day. Relieves a lot of tension.