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It will be anti-money laundering. He’s either buying or selling BTC to drug dealers / organized crime.
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good lord
are we watching Ethereum die?
'twould be nice to dump it's diseased carcass in the swamp... Wishful thinking I’m afraid. At least until we have RSK being used commercially. |
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I panic sold part of my holdings at $13.5k and $10.5k.
I bought back 98% of my original position between $6k and $8800 because I was defensively hedging against the upside. So now I have a stack of fiat, a stack of taxes and a wire to buy back the last 2%.
So overall I have done quite well even if I did not get the chance to make the buys I thought I was going to get under $5k and have been left with an increase in fiat and no net increase in BTC. Maybe if I got off my ass and calculated my taxes I could buy back some more, but I need to do that soon.
I can’t model it in my head but intuitively incrementalism ties up a lot of capital that is not particularly doing anything even if it helps you sleep. My guess is you would not have made the gains I made on this swing, but would have slept better. My approach was certainly higher risk. But I try not to sell until the downtrend is baked in and then watch it carefully. If 2018 is like 2017, I think I may not make any more trades until November / December of this year when I start hedging for downside risk again.
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Maybe immutable.
Are all the ETH full nodes sheep?
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Perhaps, I may have to change my cashing out formula because the formula allows for my selling about 1% for every 10% price rise, so for example, if I start out with $100, and the price shoots up 10x, then I have cashed out about the equivalent of my original investment of $100 but I still have about 9x of the principle which is $900. The same thing is true for the next 10x and the next 10x, so if anyone follows such a formula, then he would not run out of BTC to sell in the event that the price continues to increase by 10x, yet he will have accumulated a lot of fiat, to decide whether to keep it for reinvesting (because I don't think that we ever go up a straight 10x without some kind of price correction in there) or to cash some or all of that fiat out.
Why cash out at all if you already have enough fiat? Why not just ride the whole stack up? Because shit happens. And it allows for buying back lower down. Yeah the real question for me is whether an incrementalist approach or defensively trading established macro trends would be optimal. |
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Perhaps, I may have to change my cashing out formula because the formula allows for my selling about 1% for every 10% price rise, so for example, if I start out with $100, and the price shoots up 10x, then I have cashed out about the equivalent of my original investment of $100 but I still have about 9x of the principle which is $900. The same thing is true for the next 10x and the next 10x, so if anyone follows such a formula, then he would not run out of BTC to sell in the event that the price continues to increase by 10x, yet he will have accumulated a lot of fiat, to decide whether to keep it for reinvesting (because I don't think that we ever go up a straight 10x without some kind of price correction in there) or to cash some or all of that fiat out.
Why cash out at all if you already have enough fiat? Why not just ride the whole stack up? |
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The narrow and weak channel (such that it was) is now breaking to the upside.  the hell is going on with the ETH meltdown?
EIP 867. Allowing Devs to make state changes, to fix the Parity hack. Its DAO all over again. Also partly explains the pick up in ETC, in addition to Callisto. https://github.com/ethereum/EIPs/pull/867 |
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Bitstamp is the obvious choice for a high volume exchange that is not in the US. I have always found it rock solid. After that the water gets murky real fast. Get in, do what you have to do, and get out.
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I just sent a wire. Drifting from somewhere down the street, I can smell a slight sweet scent of FOMO on the air.
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So, when are we going to hit $1,000,000?
Let's project.  If we assume the average doubling floor time of 6 months over the last 5 years (including the 2014-2015 bear market): $20k Aug 2018 $40k Feb 2019 $80k Aug 2019 $160k Feb 2021 $320k Aug 2021 $640k Feb 2022 $1.28MM Aug 2022 Three and a half more years. If the doubling time persists at 3 months (the approx. average of the last three doublings), then just under two years. Mid 2020. Wow. You lot that like to sell your BTC in increments to buy back, take note that you don’t run out. |
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Don’t worry. Main Street isn’t buying yet. We have a long way to run.
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Major incident ongoing at Bitmex as shorts get rekt. Sharp upturn in long:short positions shown by blue line bending back up.  |
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...
Perhaps 2018 is bitcoin's 1994.
...By 1998 things had changed alot. Win 95/98 IE/Netscape made it much more useful and simple to use the internet and sites began to proliferate. I had dropped out to take a 35k job at a search engine optimization company (which seemed like alot at the time) that quickly went out of biz, but my connections from that job led to other connections that have kept me working for the 20 years since. tldr; if it's 1994, buckle up, things will be unrecognizable in 4 years. What would be our Netscape moment? Or AOL temporary dominance? Is Lightning a.k.a Netscape (without the IPO) and is Coinbase/Binance/Bitfinex, perhaps, the AOL equivalent? Or, would it be something else out of left field? We need a third layer solution with a stable unit of account. Or a way of using Lightning but pricing everything in local currrency so it is fully automated and no one has to think in BTC or Satoshis. |
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Sometimes I seriously wonder if people have some unconscious desire to be poor and mediocre. I just cannot fathom how somebody could wish to be more than they are without trying to work towards that goal with even the tiniest increments.
This bothers me a lot about people. I can't get why they are not willing to change up their lifestyle and mindset to reach the goals they desire. My theory on why so far, is that they are easier satisfied and they are happy enough with things staying like the way they are. Therefore don't feel the need to work on oneself. Some people just don't need much in life and are perfectly fine being mediocre. It's something that I sometimes I admire in people, the simplicity of being satisfied with less. I have run into this a lot, especially in foreign countries, when I need something and I am willing to pay for it. The difficulty of getting so many services makes me keep thinking in my head "do you hate money!?!". In Germany when I was looking for an apartment I felt like just driving down the street with a wad of euros in my hand shouting "I will pay you to rent a place, hell I'll over-pay!". I ended up just using AirBnB to find a place. You need a leasing agent who is working for you to take you around. |
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Tera: you have been very quiet lately. Care to share your thoughts on the state of the market? Do you think we are still shaping for a bull trap or is this the real deal TM?
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Leveraged Longs v leveraged shorts have momentarily stabilized at 2:1. Is this what a balanced market looks like? Mem pool is back to growing ever so slightly.  |
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We have (barely) broken the downward channel which has dominated since $17k. Even if the pump doesn’t hold, the channel is now vulnerable. It could be the end of the bear market.
I have a hard time thinking of this pullback from a monster pump as anything close to a bear market. Most would consider a 70% retracement from ATH as a crash. Even in Bitcoin. I am not wordy man so I will leave it at that. |
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We are currently bouncing in a rising channel but it’s narrow and fragile imho.
The next 24 hours are critical. Yes. In that time frame I need to eat at least 3 times and sleep at least once. |
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So where will the price be in the next 12 hours? Above 10k or we going back down?
above. but not above 10.2-10.3k resistance I’ll take a contrarian view and say we will retest $9k within 48 hours. But I’m not inclined to make trades during bull markets. Too easy to be left behind. This just a gut feeling or applying TA? I think a retest is realistic Men pool activity dropping. Shorts rising. Dunno if you want to call that TA. We are currently bouncing in a rising channel but it’s narrow and fragile imho. |
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So where will the price be in the next 12 hours? Above 10k or we going back down?
above. but not above 10.2-10.3k resistance I’ll take a contrarian view and say we will retest $9k within 48 hours. But I’m not inclined to make trades during bull markets. Too easy to be left behind. |
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