Right.

The development of the infrastructure continues. I know I haven't stopped coding   (and others as well of course, I am just a cog in the wheel)

I read the dot.com burst caused many unemployment software engineers to go work on their own startups in their garages. So the infrastructure development accelerated with the burst of the bubble.

Also find that venture capital chart (in my archives) that shows that investment capital in Bitcoin has been rising to offset the falling price.

The extreme short oversold price will be the buying opportunity of a lifetime.

Btw, I was offered $1.2 milion in stock options in year 2000 for my CoolPage.com software business and I would become the CTO or VP. I declined because I predicted the dot.com burst (I saw it coming because of the unprofitable banner ad rates, which I see again now for Google Adsense!) and I took $205,000 in non-exclusive license instead and continued to generate sales from CoolPage for a decade.

There is that Hegelian dialectic again (good vs. bad car salesmen trick) that TPTB employ religiously. They are squeezing Greece in between EU/Russia/IMF/China axis powers as you recently incisively (and somewhat quantitatively) demonstrated upthread.

The reason I am (very likely) correct is because speculative capital chases speculative capital, thus fundamentals do not matter.

The speculative capital will shift when it sees the stampede out of the Euro to the dollar and thus the negative for gold and other smaller cap private assets. Shorts chase shorts (just as longs chase longs...greater fool reality), until the smart (early) money starts to cover.

Sorry you will lose this bet. It is part of your learning experience. You are very smart, but I am age 50 and have paid my learning curve dues.

Correct except (your math is slightly wrong and) you need to keep enough BTC margin in your account to guard against a margin call if the price moves up interim. I was originally going to short at $315 with $70 of BTC margin, but then I decided not to do it because:

1. I don't trust that Bitfinex might require KYC and I can not comply easily with that (my name is not on my billing address).

2. I don't 100% trust that Bitfinex's margin calls can move fast enough if the price gaps down instantly, thus causing a default. Don't 100% trust bitfinex won't get hacked. Just a very miniscule doubt that bitfinex isn't shaving coins.

3. I have so much upside on the coin I am developing (10,000+% gains), it is stupid for me to lose time and risk necessarily development capital on shorting.

4. Leave it for those who need it more than I do, so they can invest in my "Bitcoin killer" coin later

5. I sold into $dollars, which is a non-leveraged short position anyhoo.


Technically your balance is $1500, because you owe 5 BTC @ $300 per BTC.

Also you can hold your margin in BTC on bitfinex, and purportedly then you don't need to submit to KYC requirements even though you sold have also $1500 cash balance. Apparently only if you move fiat in or out of bitfinex from and to a bank then you need to do KYC.

Absolutely! But it will be very difficult to convince people of that by then, because they will become so pessimistic since they've lost so much money. That is why I am trying convince wise people to stand aside now into dollar cash (not Euros!).

The multi-year bull market is coming because of a stampede into private assets after Europe starts to really implode in 2016. USA will strengthen as a safe haven from Europe until mid or end of 2017, then USA will also implode and private assets will go very high after that.

Don't give up on crypto-currency, just realize this is a market dominated by speculation and thus this speculative downside is coming. Also crypto-currency is still maturing. Bitcoin is not the final answer. Trust me on that insight as I am doing the technology myself.

I placed my capitulation about $385 - $400. Above $400 I am definitely wrong.

You should review my record (courtesy of Armstong and my interpretations). I have called every major move in BTC since $1000.

For example, in May I posted all over the place in these forums predicting a rise in summer to $315 and then a fall back below $150.

Did you not see my silver prediction in 2010?

I am a sort of prophet.

Borrowing short as explained at the link post. No guarantees. Only my and Armstrong's track record which has been impeccable.

Free money available to all:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg11954651#msg11954651

Wow! Armstrong confirms the low in gold will likely be in the $600 - $700 range! Yikes   Armstrong wrote recently how that near the low, even the former bulls are borrowing gold to sell it short, which is what drives the extreme low.

Ditto BTC, they will sell that fucker short down to double-digits. You've been warned. Once the momentum gets rolling to the short direction, you will see the same overshoot to the downside that we saw on the overshoot to the upside to $1000+ for Bitcoin. It wasn't easy to borrow short on the way up to $1000+ which may have contributed to why the price was able to overshoot so much. Now it is very easy to margin sell short with one-click on bitfinex and if you don't exchange fiat in or out of bitfinex then apparently you don't even need to give them an id (no KYC in that case apparently). I can't offer any assurances on the stability of bitfinex policies nor on whether they can remain solvent in a market that moves too fast.

Want some free money? Short gold and BTC with a several month timeline.

Looks like week of Aug 10 will ensue the big sell off in gold (and probably also Bitcoin):



By deflation he means that deflation is not confined to a decline in prices (which itself isn't even confined to only be caused by contraction of M or V in the Quantity Theory of Money), but also can be due to a contraction in economic activity caused by debt overload and its ramifications such as government raises taxes to gain revenue to service the egregious debt load.

Stagflation (de-inflation) can occur when the economic activity is contracting and the production of certain goods is contracting faster. This can happen for example because China was doing all the world's manufacturing and was operating on negative profits due to carry trade in debt, so when the tide goes out we see that cost of manufactured goods was the most naked.

Edit: add the timing on the collapse of the Euro:

And you think incorrectly. Stay tuned...

Decentralized currency is not compatible with no network connection (although it could be a broadcast network RF for 0-confirmation transactions), because for example a physical coin (and its embedded copy of the private key[2]) can be counterfeited.[1]

The best we can do is decentralized the network, which is one of the new features I am working on.

[1]

Physical cash requires an authority to enforce anti-counterfeiting laws, else it requires a precious metals money but we know already that due to Gresham's Law and the fact money must debase else society can not increase production, precious metals have never been and never will be cash. They have never been cash! It was always the State logo on the coin which was the signifier of value and trust. Armstrong explained this in great detail with his ancient coin collections.

[2]

Note as AnonyMint, I presented the idea of embedding the private key inside tungsten inside the coin and enabling it with RF communications (attaining its current from the signal), but even if you could do that difficult tech, you still probably have to trust the authority issuer of the coin (unless it could somehow embedded an eeprom). But even then you still need a connection to the network to verify the public key hasn't been spent.

Edit: also this thread is not a circle-jerk. I read anything posted that is relevant to the stipulation in the opening post as to the point of this thread. And I reply to such posts only if I feel I can add something of value. Perhaps what you sense is that I tend to have a lot of synergy in threads started by United States citizens, e.g. OROBTC and CoinCube. Perhaps I should name my new coin "Eaglecoin" or just "Eagle" (American Eagle for freedom and for founding father American ideas).

---

Dude several times I've mentioned that my head is deep in/on programming the solutions we need to survive this coming totalitarianism. I don't have time for the philosophical tangents. OROBTC wrote in the opening post that this thread was to be more about enumerating the threats and offering solutions, and not another theoretical thread for which we already have the Economic Devastation thread. OROBTC has tried to reiterate that with his recent posts, but he is too nice to tell you bluntly so I have to do it.

The issue here is you guys have huge egos and need to find something to do with your idle time. Whereas, I have vitally important work to do and not enough time to do it.

I am so fucking tired of battling egos. Can't anyone code? I see you guys as useless to the cause.

You think XMR is the solution and you can just sit back and collect the rewards for which you did nothing from your armchair but waste the time of those who are coding. You have a big lesson coming.

I have also learned in my recent search for a programmer and mathematician for collaboration, that this armchair, non-cooperative attitude seems to be a trait of Europeans. I will quote from Eric S Raymond the high genuis progenitor of the term "open source":

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4901


I have observed both of those descriptions in spades in my search for collaborative help. Also others of them are so busy on traveling and vacation, they reply once disappear and reply again after another week with a "sorry". Cripes and they think that is tolerable? I heard about the socialism over there in Europe with 35 hour work weeks and 2 months paid vacation. Europe will collapse!

Interviewing some candidates (especially one senior one) from the United Socialist States of Unamerica has been a breath of fresh air. They are articulate, results oriented, flexible, communicative, friendly, upbeat, and understand the "small team" and work hard ethos. The cultural divide is significant.

Also there appears to be a significant divide for those youngsters with a college education. University is apparently destroying the attitude (minds) of the youth.

The coming Little Ice Age:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35288

I see the troll has no work to do and wants to consume the time of those who do by introducing more verbiage intended to incite egos.

I decline. I suggest you do too, unless you want to demonstrate that you do not have enough real work to do.

The discussion in the comments between Rex Kerr and myself, on my philosophical claim that morality = self-interest is interesting (at least to me) and I think very relevant to the totalitarianism we are facing:

https://philosophy.stackexchange.com/questions/1597/is-it-immoral-to-download-music-illegally/25125#25125

It is acutely relevant because most people are so attuned to subjugating their "self-interest" to the greater good of society, that they are destroying society. And those who have the talent to actually work on the actual self-interest and save society (such as Rex Kerr who is a talented programmer apparently) will not use their talent for such because they think it is immoral.

It will only be after the SHTF and society perishes, that they realize their mistake. But that will be much too late for us. I can't find a programmer other than myself who thinks there is any urgency. Looks like I have to code it all by myself. Ridiculous. The world is facing a Dark Age collapse into totalitarianism and we have guys here masturbating with philosophical mumbo-jumbo and then others who get the epistemological arguments wrong and thus misapply their talents.

      (fucking ridiculous, but should be expected and the rewards go to the wise)

---

Epistemological Rationality

Of course until the tide goes out, we won't know who wasn't wearing underwear. So many Europeans think "wonderful life" is the norm. They have been raised in collectivism and have never experience total collapse.

The reality is the total collapse comes around about every 79 years or so, and Dark Age collapse comes about every 309 years, and we are right on time on both of those cycles which have been backtested to Mesopotamia by a supercomputer which was fed $100 million (in 1980s dollars thus $1 billion now) or vast historical data.

Problem is most people can't be rational even though they think they are because they are incapable of basing on data. Without looking at history, there can be no rationality.

Also it is important to have clear thinking and articulation about epistemological taxonomy:

https://philosophy.stackexchange.com/questions/1247/are-different-values-of-nothing-equivalent/25124#25124

We are talking about the fact that no one could see everything in the universe (and not even on earth) in real-time, because the speed-of-light would need to be infinite (because even the transmission of the signal about what was happening away from you would need to be instantaneous).

But if the speed-of-light was infinite, past and present and future would be the same thing (would not be distinct).

Thus space-time (friction) is an illusion we require, else we would not exist.

You see Einstein wasn't lying when he said death is but merely a convincing illusion (because the choice of boundary on entropy is arbitrary...and the other choices are in those black holes where past, present, and future collapsed into nothing from the frame-of-reference of our space-time choice...thus the definition of the soul is arbitrary and by definition can't be falsifiable).

Where is boundary on your entropy from which you can enumerate a space?

Your answer is your illusion.