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621  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 04, 2013, 07:51:05 PM
why are all these ppl bashing gold? Tongue

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_4QFErOdTag

Ringos?  hadn't heard of that one, lol!

very good explanatory vid.
thanks for posting and i'll put it on the documentary thread. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=268955.0)

Divisibility is not really a tie -- I doubt I could cut a Maple Leaf in half with a chisel and sell the halves as easily as the whole.  Also gold has too much value to carry small payments easily -- the dusting of gold would be too easily lost.  And in practice the minimum value transfer amount is some function of the cost to validate that the gold is not counterfeit.

I tell people this:
Human technological progress is the story of tools that progress from the use of natural substances with desirable (and undesirable) properties to engineered solutions highly optimized to the problem. The stone axe becomes the bronze then steel axe and finally the chainsaw.

Gold/silver is the natural substance that best meets the properties of ideal money. Fiat currencies are engineered as perfect money but are unsound because they have no guaranteed scarcity. Bitcoin is the first engineered sound money, with the best properties of scarcity, divisibility, portability, transferability, and verifiability of any known currency. 



622  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 04, 2013, 03:30:07 PM
Just eyeballing it, there's about 7 million dollars worth of coins for sale on ALL the major exchanges.  Things could get pretty crazy really quick... hopefully buyers will hold back waiting for the chimeric "dump" and we'll see not-entirely-irrational price appreciation.

623  Economy / Speculation / Re: No capitulation on: November 01, 2013, 10:58:50 PM
I used to be a bear.

However, I got beaten.

I remain careful and accept the loss but I have also lost the hope of buying them back.

As every day ticks, more and more people join and own, and the lower chances become for a serious correction.

I used to think $60 was in the cards, but then Silk Road clampdown went down to only $85 and shut up to the current $200.

Too much money chasing the coins. And it will - likely - only get worse.

I forgot about $60, even $90, if $120 would be touched I would be surprised. $150 is still possible.

Just my thoughts.

I think your mistake was to pick a bottom.  You should buy on the way down and then the rest in the bottom quarter (say) of the bounce back up because you can never be sure that your chosen bottom is THE bottom.  If you sold some in April at 230 (say) and then bought back at 190, 150, 100, 75, 67 and then 80, was that 190 buy really bad? 

What could be wrong with getting back into your BTC position with an extra 40 bucks per coin left over!  Seems to me like you made a good trade, assuming you believe in the fundamentals. 

Of course the other buys were better, but they would not have existed if the bounce had happened at 180...

624  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Imputation Problem on: October 28, 2013, 03:30:22 PM
I have long resisted the inclusion of data from exchanges other than Gox because I never really understood how to include samples of different lengths into a model. But now that the volumes of Gox, Bistamp, and Btcchina have been comparable for so long I am forced to include their trade data into a model.

It may be sufficient to simply truncate the trade data to the shortest sample, but I really hate to throw away data. As well, I expect there will occasionally be cases where there will be missing data ongoing.

I wonder, how have some of you dealt with multiple data streams, and how to match them up, either through truncation, imputation, or some other means.

You'll want to use the exciting science of reverse imputation.  This complex mathematical technique uses the desired solution to inform the chosen imputation algorithm and data-source weighting coefficients.   Grin  Come on, get with its GUARANTEED to make Bitcoin look awesome!  We know this from seeing the CPI numbers.

625  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 24, 2013, 10:52:54 PM
This is not surprising, as its essentially ATH resistance.  $23x was the highest plateau -- the move to 266 and back down was an intra-day jag with little volume or trading time opportunity.  It was the 230s where lots of ppl bought in.   I think once we break into the 240s we'll move past the ATH without out much volatility.

626  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 21, 2013, 11:00:59 PM
40X!!!  Grin  

Just in case newbies to this thread do not understand, this posting periodically compares the buying power of gold vs. bitcoin if you had bought one vs the other in March 2012.  

For example, you had bought $1000 in gold on that date, you'd have a bit more than a half ounce worth around $780 today.  If you had bought bitcoin, you would have 185 coins worth 35 THOUSAND bucks!!!

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, nasdaq=3055, Bitcoin=5.4):
Bitcoin is 192.11 (177.44 btcChina in USD).  Gold is 1318.00.  Nasdaq is 3922.00
Bitcoin: 3457.59% (3185.93%)
Gold:    -22.01%
Nasdaq:  28.38%
Gold Diff:   4462% advantage Bitcoin
Nasdaq Diff:  2671% advantage Bitcoin
4561.708256055753

Stop rubbing it in.

40 bagger deserves some celebration. ...
627  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 21, 2013, 06:27:01 PM
so if the price keeps rising, how would we ever use it as a real currency to buy stuff?
i'm pretty sure everybody who has them has them for buy and hold or making profit, not for purchasing goods - I certainly don't because in two months the price might have doubled, and I would curse myself for giving them away "back then" instead of using real currency.


Why buy a laptop? Because if you wait a year it would be a lot more powerful, touchscreen, better camera etc for cheaper.  There comes a time when people need to buy stuff almost regardless of future price performance.  And of course some people are always thinking we are near the top.  And also the price isn't going to keep rising like this forever.  It'll flatten out eventually and at that time exchange of BTC we become more common.

But what you've mentioned is the achilles heel of a "sound" currency.  It is theorized that during recessions/depressions people tend to hoard it, spending as little as possible -- saving it in case the recession continues.  This creates a negative feedback of reduced consumption -> fewer jobs -> more reduced consumption.  But on the other hand, in this highly populous, resource limited world careful consumption might be better in the long run than triggering growth that is not connected to greater underlying resource efficiency.
628  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 21, 2013, 02:35:44 PM
40X!!!  Grin  

Just in case newbies to this thread do not understand, this posting periodically compares the buying power of gold vs. bitcoin if you had bought one vs the other in March 2012.  

For example, you had bought $1000 in gold on that date, you'd have a bit more than a half ounce worth around $780 today.  If you had bought bitcoin, you would have 185 coins worth 35 THOUSAND bucks!!!

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, nasdaq=3055, Bitcoin=5.4):
Bitcoin is 192.11 (177.44 btcChina in USD).  Gold is 1318.00.  Nasdaq is 3922.00
Bitcoin: 3457.59% (3185.93%)
Gold:    -22.01%
Nasdaq:  28.38%
Gold Diff:   4462% advantage Bitcoin
Nasdaq Diff:  2671% advantage Bitcoin
4561.708256055753
629  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 21, 2013, 12:19:11 AM
A longer timeframe below, we're steadily approaching all time low in asks and on the amount of bids is very high.

This could mean btc is about to explode (again) if it wasn't that the bid/ask ratio at Gox is distorted by their now quite obvious liquidity problem. Nevertheless, apart from Gox financial situation everything looks bullish Cheesy


Remembering of course that 'millions of dollars' were flowing into Gox on a daily basis at the end of March / beginning of April.

I really doubt there's much USD flowing in right now.

I'm firmly in USD at the moment.
so sorry 4 u.  gox is not btc.  usa is not btc.  broaden your horizons and take adv. of any dip you see.

That's what I'm doing now - waiting for the next big dip as someone cashes in.

Good luck with that.  Maybe you'll be able to catch the dip around CNY 1500...  Tongue
630  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 21, 2013, 12:05:13 AM
A longer timeframe below, we're steadily approaching all time low in asks and on the amount of bids is very high.

This could mean btc is about to explode (again) if it wasn't that the bid/ask ratio at Gox is distorted by their now quite obvious liquidity problem. Nevertheless, apart from Gox financial situation everything looks bullish Cheesy


Remembering of course that 'millions of dollars' were flowing into Gox on a daily basis at the end of March / beginning of April.

I really doubt there's much USD flowing in right now.

I'm firmly in USD at the moment.
so sorry 4 u.  gox is not btc.  usa is not btc.  broaden your horizons and take adv. of any dip you see.
631  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 20, 2013, 11:31:37 PM
Bid depths have exploded overnight. On gox, about $2M bid depth was just added between $165 and $175.  On btcchina, about „2M have been added. Bitstamp added another $100K. Last time this happened, we took off from $110.

does it have any significance if a 4k dump takes us down 10USD? It's an honest question, just wondering if I put 500k USD at 90USD/BTC will it mean anything


90 not so much esp. on gox but 165 to 175 could be a buyer hoping for a dump.  but if s/he sees momentum building this b8d could become a mkt order...
632  Economy / Speculation / Re: Track Record Forum Members on: October 20, 2013, 01:28:41 AM
I would appreciate being removed from the first post since I am unconvinced at the methodology or accuracy of these assessments.  Thx!
633  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 18, 2013, 02:52:43 PM
I was hoping to wait for > $166 but I guess I'll just do another.  So here we go!

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, nasdaq=3055, Bitcoin=5.4):
Bitcoin is 164.49 (148.56 btcChina in USD).  Gold is 1317.00.  Nasdaq is 3894.00
Bitcoin: 2946.11% (2651.14%)
Gold:    -22.07%
Nasdaq:  27.46%
Gold Diff:  3809% advantage Bitcoin
Nasdaq Diff:  2290% advantage Bitcoin

634  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 18, 2013, 02:28:29 PM
As evil as high inflation is, it is not an unexpected event given past history in any fiat currency that has a history.  But a tax on assets breaks the whole concept of private property.

I haven't read the report yet (I plan to) but from the quotes it seems like the report is entirely forgetting the most important thing which is that the feedback loop that rewards success and punishes failure must be preserved.

This was my issue with Cyprus bank bail-ins vs. bankruptcy.  It is not sufficiently disruptive to cause people (or their intellectual successors -- in other words a whole culture) to be fired.  Let's compare the Cyprus disaster with Detroit bankruptcy.  In Detroit we have:

www.cbsnews.com/8301-201_162-57606936/kwame-kilpatrick-former-detroit-mayor-sentenced-to-28-years-in-prison-for-corruption/

"...the sweeping federal probe that has led to the convictions of more than 30 people."

A government "default" (or perhaps better stated as "repealing unfunded entitlement promises") and/or high inflation (which points directly at the government) will cause a shift to fiscal responsibility, if anything will.  I think we as a society need to learn an important lesson which is essentially that NO promise or fund is safe from subsequent politicians if there is any legal way it can be accessed.  Programs like social security, teacher's retirement funds, etc need to be legally and administratively separate (and even that may not be enough, but at least it is worth a try).  And all Ponzi systems -- that is, any unfunded promise that expects to be funded by future labor or taxes -- should be not legally binding.

635  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 18, 2013, 05:34:18 AM
This is getting blown way out of proportion.

A news item get blown out of proportion?! On THIS forum of all places?! I never thought I'd live to see the day...

Yes but at the same time, a high constant fee is a good way to lock "most" people out but keep it legal for you and your pals (provided you are rich or funded by the rich). 

For example, from reading these forums I learned the term "dollar denominated account" a few months ago.  So I googled around found just one bank (UBS) that offered foreign currency denominated accounts.  I thought it might be a good idea to diversify a bit into euros, yuan, etc.  Called them up -- not going to happen unless I was going to deposit > 1 million USD.  Too much overhead and paperwork...

Ironically, there's a trick that lets you do it in a small way with the company we love-to-hate: Paypal.  If someone sends you money you can choose to hold it in the currency it was sent...

Schwab, Fidelity, and HSBC are a few examples of banks that offer multi-denominated accounts in the USA.

All require no minimum or a small minimum (I think HSBC is $5000, fidelity and schwab are $0 minimum).

Great! Thx I should have asked you guys a long time ago...
636  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 18, 2013, 01:33:35 AM
This is getting blown way out of proportion.

A news item get blown out of proportion?! On THIS forum of all places?! I never thought I'd live to see the day...

Yes but at the same time, a high constant fee is a good way to lock "most" people out but keep it legal for you and your pals (provided you are rich or funded by the rich).  

For example, from reading these forums I learned the term "dollar denominated account" a few months ago.  So I googled around found just one bank (UBS) that offered foreign currency denominated accounts.  I thought it might be a good idea to diversify a bit into euros, yuan, etc.  Called them up -- not going to happen unless I was going to deposit > 1 million USD.  Too much overhead and paperwork...

Ironically, there's a trick that lets you do it in a small way with the company we love-to-hate: Paypal.  If someone sends you money you can choose to hold it in the currency it was sent...
637  Economy / Securities / Re: Make your mark : CryptoEquity shares on: October 17, 2013, 08:33:33 PM
Grin
638  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 17, 2013, 06:57:11 PM

Even a year ago it was difficult to receive international wires b/c there is a different USA-only wire system.  Credit unions and regional banks do not get a SWIFT number...  I had to actually GO to a physical room inconveniently located an entire 5 minute drive from my house, fill out forms ON PAPER, and actually TALK DIRECTLY to another living breathing smiling human being to open an account that would accept international wires. :-)  But seriously -- the real issue is that it had to be with one of the big names whose business model is to basically drain your funds with fees, etc.  For example, if I don't do at least 1 txn a month in the account there is a fee.

Joking aside, bitcoin is awesome at medium international xfer. Small can be done with paypal, large with a wire.  The sweet spot IMO is 500-5000 USD.


I never had much trouble receiving with my bank. Though the fees were a PITA, they charged at the US end even if I'd elected to have all fees paid at the originating end, the exchange rate was worse than the "official" rate and you couldn't wait for a good rate, you got whatever was available at the time (and I have my suspicions the banks played things so they profited off of that too). The last few times I've used Currency Fair and it's a *much* better experience all around. Can't believe the lobbyists haven't got them closed down yet.

OK YMMV...I didn't make a study out of it.  But I gather all banks have an ABA number (domestic) but that is not a SWIFT (international) number.  I did get turned away from a couple of smaller CUs and banks so finally I sucked it up and went with BAC.  I was getting paid by a major European luxury automobile company for work on their prototype cars so it was not an issue of ignorance on their end.  In fact, about 6 months later they opened a US bank account and notified me that wires could now be domestic (and I'm 100% positive they did not do that just for my business!!! :-).
639  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 17, 2013, 04:55:10 PM
holy fuck BUY!!!!!!!!!

Quote
Foreign Wire Transfers: Due to recent regulatory changes, effective 10/1/13, FNBT/FCB will no longer offer foreign wire transfer services through Internet Banking or in banking centers.

If you need to send funds to a recipient in a foreign country, you can go to www.westernunion.com to send a transfer using your Debit MasterCard® or visit your local banking center to send a Western Union in person.

What bank is that?

first national texas, but i would imagine these 'regulatory changes' apply to all banks.

funny, I just wrote a rambling projection on how international B2B is the next killer app for bitcoin (now that China is ramping up). https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=311495.msg3351398#msg3351398

Even a year ago it was difficult to receive international wires b/c there is a different USA-only wire system.  Credit unions and regional banks do not get a SWIFT number...  I had to actually GO to a physical room inconveniently located an entire 5 minute drive from my house, fill out forms ON PAPER, and actually TALK DIRECTLY to another living breathing smiling human being to open an account that would accept international wires. :-)  But seriously -- the real issue is that it had to be with one of the big names whose business model is to basically drain your funds with fees, etc.  For example, if I don't do at least 1 txn a month in the account there is a fee.

Joking aside, bitcoin is awesome at medium international xfer. Small can be done with paypal, large with a wire.  The sweet spot IMO is 500-5000 USD.


640  Economy / Speculation / Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter on: October 17, 2013, 01:15:27 AM
Wait til China and India and all the backward countries adopt it then it will really go up! HEck they dont even know bitcoin exists. Wait! I almost forgot all the people in Mexico and all the people in the slums of Rio. Wait til they buy bitcoins and hold them while their families starve to death or they are put out into the streets. But they will still be true to good ole bitcoin. BRAINWASHED LEMMINGS!! ALL OF YOU!

You are ignorant if you think the BRICs are economically backwards.  There is a lot of concentrated wealth and also a lot of concentrated poverty in these nations.  But just for clarity I did start to wince when the OP suggested the exponential was going to continue to 1 trillion.  My gut tells me the S will inflect FAR before that point.  Regardless, thx for reading my post!
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