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6201  Economy / Economics / Re: Distribution of Wealth on: March 01, 2011, 02:13:08 PM
The thing about "big" traders is that one day there were all "small" traders ... but not many vice versa.
Unless they inherited their money, which is the case for about 3/4 of the wealth in the US today.

No one inherited bitcoin.
6202  Other / Obsolete (selling) / Re: A fridge for bitcoin on: February 28, 2011, 04:08:03 PM
It's  not going to work too well considering there is no mention as to what city the fridge is located.
6203  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What is better about BTC than USD for typical person? on: February 28, 2011, 04:05:54 PM
I don't agree with your concern that merchants would become more dishonest if chargeback wasn't possible.

The lack of chargeback forces merchants to be more honest, in the long run anyway.

With chargeback, there's no incentive for the merchant to differentiate themselves as being more trustworthy than other merchants, because the customer's ability to chargeback is identical for every merchant.

Without chargeback, customers will eventually get used to thinking about trustworthiness, and merchants will have to cultivate their trustworthiness to survive.

In the short term it will be a rocky road, as consumers learn (the hard way) about the new way of doing things.


I agree that lack of chargebacks is a necessary feature.

However, e.g. Western Union receives a lot of bad press for that, like this :
http://reviews.ebay.com/Western-Union-FRAUD-SCAMS_W0QQugidZ10000000002283720

Eventually, BTC will receive a lot of badmouth for the same reason.




Notice, if you will, that WU still does business this way, and people still accept WU.

6204  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: what about the bitcoins that are gone in the future on: February 28, 2011, 06:11:28 AM
Why not make the 'dead' bitcoin reclaimable(say regenerated if inactive for 50 years).  And continuously deflation might not be a good thing(eg. discourage investment).

Mostly because it would introduce an exploit path and reduce security.  Think about this; whether you use time, or confirmations, or whatever to age an account, how would you go about writing such rules into the vanilla client so that all honest nodes could collectively agree when an account is lost or abandoned as well as stop malicious clients from being able to take advantage of that?  Currently it's impossible for any lost coins to be recovered, honestly or not, so it's equally impossible for that to be an attack vector.  Add to that, what would be the gain to the network to be able to recover lost coins?  As already mentioned, lost coins are not a problem for the network's function, and everyone else's base value increases slightly when you lose your wallet down the memory hole.  So the only loser in the event is the owner of those coins.  The rest of the network has no incentive to risk such an attack vector.

And deflation does not discourage investment, although it can alter the risk/reward calculations of an investor.  Any deflation that Bitcoin would experience after all 21 million bitcoins had been dispersed would be very gradual.  Actually, we are experiencing a great deal more deflation right now, due to the size of the bitcoin economy increasing at a vastly greater rate than the currency is currently inflating.  Considering that Bitcoin is currently inflating at about 50% APR, it says a lot that the value has been increasing at the pace that it has.
6205  Economy / Economics / Re: Ounces of Silver to Buy a Median-Priced Home on: February 28, 2011, 05:33:59 AM
I agree with S3052.  Silver could fall hard, lower than it did in late 2008, for the same reason as late 2008: people will be selling everything to get their hands on USD, to pay their USD-denominated debts.

On the other hand I've been waiting for it to happen for quite awhile now.  This credit implosion is taking it's sweet time to arrive.

Actually, it's been happening all around us gradually over the past two years.  The budget crises in the many states are a side-effect of this.  Hell, the very recession itself is a side effect.  This is one reason why the value of the USD has been fairly stable despite the near doubling of the M1 monetary base, because as the M2 is collapsing (Monetary base plus credit outstanding) due to defaults and the attitude of austerity the FedReserve has been printing new money at almost the precise pace that credit has been destroyed.  This, of course, cannot continue; as the balancing effects are relatively short term.  As soon as we hit bottom in the recession (which I still doubt we are very near) the velocity of money will increase towards the mean and the long term effects of all that debasement is going to be felt in earnest by the public, and the value of the USD then has only one direction that it can go.  I have no idea when to expect this, and I doubt that anyone else does either.
6206  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: what about the bitcoins that are gone in the future on: February 28, 2011, 05:22:47 AM
"The total eventual circulation will be 21 million bitcoins.  There will never be more coins than that."

I wonder is this a good thing for bitcoin?

what about the bitcoin that are 'dead' - no longer can be used in the future.

what if
1. The owner of the bitcoin dies and does not leave his bitcoin to anybody
2. Someone's wallet is lost


Deflation happens.  With Bitcoin's high divisibility, any permanent losses of the monetary base simply makes the remainder more valuable; literally the reverse of the debasement of a currency (i.e. inflation)

Quote

which seems likely to occur to me, then would that amount of bitcoin just be gone and nobody can use it?
If yes then these 'dead' bitcoin is going to be big in the very long run and no fresh bitcoin is going to be made.

Imaging bitcoin becomes popular and we want to use this currency forever, and some amount of bitcoin is lost from this economy each day.

Does anybody think this is a problem?

No.  Not anyone here who has an economics background, or has been here long enough to understand it, anyway.  It really isn't a problem, but I understand that me saying so doesn't really help.  Please search the archives on this topic, as it has been beaten long since dead.
6207  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Common Law System on: February 28, 2011, 01:30:59 AM
Quote: "Anyone could explain me why would we need a new government now that we have a new, parasitefree, currency?"

I no longer have the quotes collections I used to use for .sigs, so I cannot recall the exact wording, but the Emperor Paul Muad'dib had a nice one about control the currency and the courts and the rabble can have the rest.

(Might also have been same place where he also enquired but who is to say who are the rabble and who the, uh, non-rabble I guess. Rulers, maybe?)

So basically, even the Emperor could see that currency and courts go together...

-Muad'Dib's Secret Message to the Landsraad from "Arrakis Awakening" by the Princess Irulan


A court system can exist independently from a government, in fact that is preferred.
6208  Economy / Economics / Re: Difficultly Level Increasing on: February 27, 2011, 11:50:10 PM
Turns out it was above 50%.  Looks like mining will no longer be profitable in 3 weeks in anyway, unless the BC value goes up again dramatically.  

If mining stops being profitable, people will need to start sending more transaction fees until it is profitable again, right?


No.  Transaction fees are independent from the block mining reward.  Transactions fees are currently quite rare, as there is plenty of space in an average block that there is no need to pay a transaction fee in order to prioritize your transactions.

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I see no difference between mining and processing bitcoin transactions...except it's shorter to say mining.


There isn't a difference, but the 50 bitcoin reward that a miner gets for solving the hash and processing the transactions is how Bitcoin issues new currency into the network.  Any transaction fees that may be found would add to that reward.

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to be very clear..difficulty up, miners will start shutting down, blocks/hour will go down and people will have to wait longer for payments to go through.  Then as individuals decide it's taking too long, they will start to voluntarily pay transaction fees until the payment goes through fast enough.  As transaction fee revenue increases, mining will pick up again.  This was all very clearly planned for from the start...


You're pretty close, but if miners drop out, and the average duration between blocks increases, paying a transaction fee would only speed up a transaction confirmation if there are enough transactions coming in during that time period to force that issue.  Currently, we are way under the blocksize limit, and have plenty of space in the 'free' section.

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ALSO, can difficulty ever go down?


Yes, it can.  It's a limted, but self adjusting algorithem, kinda like 'fuzzy logic', that tries to adapt the difficulty of the hash problem to the availability of hashing power so that the entire network averages 6 blocks per hour. 
6209  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin's immunity to government action on: February 27, 2011, 04:44:29 AM
I think of it as putting out the fire that has spread to the living room, removing the old fireplace, and putting in a newer safer more effecient one.

You didn't explain why we need the government.

I'm not sure I can explain why we need government.

As i see it there are two major categories of useful things a government does, That makes a government useful, Generally Agreed on Acceptable Behavior, and Public Service type programs.  There may be other I can't think of or don't know of.

Maybe a government is not what I'm looking to create, but a way to and inform others of what rules people wish to live by, and have protect.  If the whole can agree by two differing rules,  they can be accepted as Option 1, and 2  One group may select option 1, while another selects option 2.  Additional options can be created as needed.  If a certain group would like to live a certain way that other groups may not want to live, but no one sees any harm in it than it is allowable.


Search for a description of a 'phyle', and let us know if this is close to what you are imagining.

6210  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Common Law System on: February 27, 2011, 04:37:07 AM
A Common Economic Protocol?

ReleaseCandidate-Alpha-0.0.1
6211  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Wanted: strategic partnershp with reputable community member (100,000+ BTC) on: February 27, 2011, 04:33:53 AM
Why not a bond issue?
6212  Economy / Economics / Re: Distribution of Wealth on: February 26, 2011, 02:40:46 PM
So what? The current selling orders are highly relevant to the current price. To hide the biggest chunks of it, means to decieve normal users, as they will think Bitcoins are worth much more.

Also, Mt.Gox just happens to be the biggest exchange place for this. The others do not matter so much, at least until now.

As dark pools are currently done at MtGox, trade data is public after the trades occur, so the pricing metrics are not affected. 


Agreed. They are not affected for that trade. That's the point: the pricing metrics for that trade would have been affected by the natural market forces , if the trade had been in the open.


The trade, dark or not, is affected by the market rate.  Once the dark trade is complete, it likewise affects the market price and therefore other trades, dark or not.

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 Dark pools are specifically set up for the large trader to cheat such unfavorable effects of the free market, as they continue to proselytize them as positive and unavoidable to others.


And you know this how?  Are you inside MtGox's head to be able to know what his intentions are, beyond what he has already stated were his intentions?  You may not believe his logic, but you don't know his thoughts.

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There isn't really anything special about dark pools other than anyone can use them without needing a script to do it.


The truth is that not everyone can use them, because there is the lower limit.


The truth is that anyone can set up a market and set whatever rules that they desire.

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 I do congratulate you though on your wealth in red herring with that script argument.


I do mock you though, on your inability to present an argument at all.  Can you define "red herring" without googling it?  Based on how you are using it, "I don't think it means what you think it means".

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 If automation is so great in this case, then there is no reason to set an arbitrary participation limit on it. Let's all trade with dark pool automation!


You may not see any reason to set an arbitrary participation limit on it, but you are not he-who-gets-to-decide.
6213  Economy / Economics / Re: Distribution of Wealth on: February 26, 2011, 02:26:54 PM
imanikin’s right.

No he is not.  He has a right to his opinion, but that is all that it is.  Apparently both of you need some remedial economics education.


...As is your opinion, except that IF you benefit from the dark pools and similar scams, your opinion is biased...  Grin

The economics lesson you are teaching us is one that is already being pounded into all of us by the hypocrites among the Wall-Street free marketeers though periodic financial crises: this education comes down to an acceptance of a simple double-standard.


And the Devil knows the Bible better than any preacher, and uses it to justify his position.  That neither makes the bible wrong, nor the Devil right.

6214  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin's immunity to government action on: February 26, 2011, 07:37:28 AM
Some people will NEVER sell their bitcoin to the gov...like me! Cheesy

Me too!!! NEVER NEVER NEVER Cheesy

Well, I might sell them a few bitcoins.  If the government is giving me 1kg of gold per BTC.


You might just live to see the day that 1 BTC is equal to 1KG of gold, but I'm doubtful that the US government actually has any left.

Oh, I'm sure there are a bar or two left in Ft. Knox... They wouldn't spend that much money just for theater, right?

...

RIGHT?

Fort Know hasn't been audited since FDR.
6215  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Change in difficulty after block award drops from 50 to 25 BTC? on: February 25, 2011, 07:45:26 AM

My naive understanding is that the halving of the mining bonuses is Satoshi's way of weaning the miners off the inflation gravy train and transitioning to a transaction fee based system. 

That's correct, but it's also how the system limits the total bitcoin that will ever be, as the block reward halves every 210,000 blocks, the total number of bitcoins issued approach a  mathmatical limit, never quite reaching 21,000,000 bitcoins.  At the inflection points, the difficulty will almost certainly drop, but by that time the value of those 25 bitcoins will likely be much higher than 50 bitcoins is right now.
6216  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: Beware of scammers! on: February 25, 2011, 07:35:12 AM
I sent him money in December, then a week ago the Post Office returned the envelope (with my money still inside). So don't panic yet.

I have had a number of good dealings with madhatter, as have many others here.

wait.  and u just got ur letter back.  WTF? why did they send it back??

I think i didnt the right return address though...Huh!!!!
i did  put a peiece of paper inside the envelope with my real return address though, so  eeeks.
hope this dude is solid.  My life litterally depends on it right now.!!

I've dealt with Madhatter on many occasions, and I will attest that he is as honest a man as one could expect to find.  However, the transit between the US and Canada is slow.  We all have real lives that must be attended to at times.
6217  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin's immunity to government action on: February 25, 2011, 07:32:02 AM
Some people will NEVER sell their bitcoin to the gov...like me! Cheesy

Me too!!! NEVER NEVER NEVER Cheesy

Well, I might sell them a few bitcoins.  If the government is giving me 1kg of gold per BTC.


You might just live to see the day that 1 BTC is equal to 1KG of gold, but I'm doubtful that the US government actually has any left.
6218  Economy / Economics / Re: demurrage instead of fees on: February 25, 2011, 07:29:51 AM

Deflation discourages commerce. I just can't understand how you can see deflation as desirable.


Deflation is no more disruptive to commerce than inflation, and both are only disruptive to the degree that they exist at the moment.  What is most desirable is general price stability, but only to an extent.  The deflationary design of Bitcoin, after about 120 years of course, is *very* gradual.  Between 2020 and 2130, Bitcoin will still be in an inflationary stage, but will be inflating at a rate less than every fiat currency on Earth has averaged over the past 50 years.  This means that Bitcoin's monetary base will be so stable, that price fluctuations will be much more affected by real market forces.  That is the ideal.  Very likely, none of us are going to be alive, and if Bitcoin survives in it's current state till 2130, it will have outlasted every fiat currency that has yet existed.  Even the US Dollar isn't even quite 100 years old as a fiat currency.
6219  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin's immunity to government action on: February 25, 2011, 07:11:22 AM


Hi, I'm Björgvin. I'm an active member of Hakkavélin hackerspace.

I've been lurking on these forums for about two weeks since the dollar parity, fascinated with bitcoin taking off for real (ohh, why didn't I mine back in October when I briefly tested it first.)


Procrastination can save you sometimes, too.  If I hadn't procrastinated in my plan to deposit into Icesave, I would have lost my ass.  A week later it collapsed.

Did you read this whole thread?  What do you think of the plan?  And what is the local power rate per KWH?
6220  Economy / Economics / Re: Distribution of Wealth on: February 24, 2011, 03:27:03 PM

The fact that dark pools are only available to large traders, really shows the privacy argument to be the red herring that it is...

The owner of Mt.Gox doesn't want to deal with the additional work for dark pools for small trades, that doesn't prevent anyone else from setting up dark pools without those conditions.


You are right that there will be exchanges without dark pools or arbitrary limits.

It's pretty lame if MtGox actually processes all dark pool trades manually. The "extra work", imho, is as much of a red-herring argument as the "trading privacy" one.  Smiley


Perhaps, but whatever the case may be, your opinions are worth about as much as mine on this matter, which is to say, none.  The only opinion that is of concern is that of MtGox.  Even if you could convince a large number of people of your position (which you cannot) there would still be nothing that you could do to compel MtGox to change his policy.  Even if he came out and openly agreed that dark pools favor large investors in an unfair manner.

It is, ultimately, his property.  That is the definition of freedom.
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