We need to stop thinking of Bitcoin price in terms of $ and think of it in terms of time.   Can the Bitcoin price go backwards 8 weeks to $19k?  Yes it can, easily.  Can the Bitcoin price go back 5 months to September 2017 when it was $3k?  Yes, it can, September was not long ago.  Can it go back 12 months to February 2017 when it was $800?  Much much harder but still definitely possible.  Can it go back 2.5 years to August 2015 when it was $198?  Ok this is impossible.

So you are right, I agree no chance of $100.  But there is a risk of 3 digit Bitcoin that I think would cause everyone in this thread to pee blood.  I think this is a low chance but higher than 5%.  February 2017 was not so long ago.  So we must plan and be prepared for all eventualities.  

As I post this, we are under $8k in price and have weak volume.  I am not happy about this I can only read what the chart says.  In time terms, we are currently at November 23 2017 and walking backwards.  September 2017 ($3k) is only 2.5 more months of backwards walking.

I have made my peace and will ride my current stack into the ground if necessary.  To do otherwise would expose me to an unacceptable risk of being left behind when the market snaps back.   I will also buy but not until the market has bled much much more or we have truly broken the downward trend.

Guys

Have a plan for both $100k and $100.   Both are possible.  

That is all.

It will bounce.  Consider partial exit on the bounce while still leaving enough to hedge against a sudden upside move. Try to put yourself in a position where you win no matter what the price does, even if those wins are not as great as If you went all in.

Hi that’s great advice.  I am still in accumulation phase.  I triggered some capital gains when I sold coins bought in 2013.  I have started buying back lower with profits but the price has continued to fall.  I think that if I liquidate my new position on the last day of the tax year in my country, then I can offset trading losses against capital gains tax, and use the funds I have set aside to pay taxes to rebuy the following tax year (a few hours later). Obviously timing is critical.

Jojo.   Don’t get bull trapped.  This has not played out yet.

We could go much much lower.  Try to put yourself in a position where you have options whichever direction the price goes in.

So for the first time, tax planning needs to be taken into consideration in my trading strategy.  It makes things much more complicated but it is a nice problem to have.

The criticism seems to boil down to (1) it’s not ready yet and (2) we don’t know if it will be enough.  

The answer to (1) is “yes, duh” and the answer to (2) is “yes but it’s better than anyone else”.  

Add to this the fact that Bitcoin has scaling problems because it has scale.

 On that note I gave up trying to download the Monero blockchain after a week, and downloading the Eth blockchain is a nightmare. I think a lot of these people bitching about scaling have never run a full node.

Dent.  Some people never learn.   

Incidentally while there are bullish signs, the 1D chart still looks like a diseased dick.

I look forward to shooting the shit with all of you entitled cunts when Bitcoin is $1 million in 2025.  Assuming you have not yet overdosed on whiskey and valium. 

And you think this applies to Merkel more than it applies to Trump?   The man who says he has a bigger nuclear button than Kim Il Jong?

Are you suggesting a new poll after February 14?!

I think Tera would be one of the safer ones with firearms in this thread.

Back to Bitcoin.  It seems we have missed the usual Saturday night dump or that buying below $9k was too aggressive for it take hold.  

Mem pool size has stopped falling and has stayed roughly the same for the past 24 hours.

Both bullish signals.

I am sorry this has been your experience.  My country has a twin system:  free socialized healthcare for anyone who wants it plus private health care for anyone that wants to pay for it. Many top doctors work part time in both systems, they work private for the money a few days a week and then work public a few days a week so that they get the most challenging cases and can also teach med students.

If you are critically ill, you will be moved out of the private hospital and into a public tertiary hospital, by government owned medivac helicopter if necessary. These public tertiary hospitals are where all the serious research and subspecialty training happens and people with super rare and complex issues are treated.  Private healthcare is more about getting a fancy private suite in your hospital with cut flowers if you are seriously but not critically ill.  

We spend far less than the United States on health care on a per capita basis, but we destroy the US in terms of positive patient outcomes.  This is because the US system is horribly inefficient as has been well documented.  Our government is far more efficient at delivering serious health care than the private sector.  We pay a lot of tax but strangely it seems no more than high income Americans. Maybe we pay less after taking into account your State and municipal taxes.

When I hear Americans complain about free health care, I think it has nothing to do with patient outcomes and is really because they want to cut their taxes.  Maybe if you spent a little less on defence spending instead, then you could pay less taxes.  Do you guys really need a $4 billion Zumwalt class warship with artillery shells that cost $1 million per round?  I think not.  This is where your tax dollar is being pisssed away.

Bitcoin is a fundamental threat to Paul Krugman’s identity.  He identifies with the beneficent guiding hand of the central bank. Bitcoin attacks his ideals and therefore is a direct attack on him.

It is only natural that he should take pleasure in defeat of such a great threat.  Thank goodness Bitcoin is now dead.

2 hour mem pool is showing green shoots.  Could be a statisical anomaly due to low block speed but I like the look of it.  At least it’s not falling right now.

Nope.  I’m defending my profits.  Do you think it’s a bull trap?

I participated in that... After half went in a single bite.  I’m temporarily back in bull mode. For better or worse.

Prediction transparency report

At time of prediction price was about $8650.  8 hours later is $8750.  

In between we have seen $8170 low and $9031 high.   So the forecast of a further dip was correct but not anywhere near as severe as predicted.  

I will adjust my model a bit from “Apocalypse Now” to “Apocalypse Later Maybe”.