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6321  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 29, 2018, 08:23:02 AM
I left gox months before the collapse to margin trade on finex. Then I left finex days before it got hacked. Im really lucky.

I was caught by the Finex hack.  Fortunately the vast majority of my BTC were off-exchange so I didn’t lose much in the end. 
6322  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 29, 2018, 08:19:58 AM
I have been very critical of Mark in the past, but I have come to believe that he never intended to hurt anyone.

It is still within his power to redeem himself.

Like giving away 10% of his fortune to make all his investors whole again in USD terms?
6323  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 29, 2018, 08:11:29 AM
I hope you didn’t lose too much to Mark.  I was lucky. I had an account on Mt Gox but never got around to putting anything in it.
6324  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 29, 2018, 07:37:36 AM
Haha fuck.  Just saw the candle to 20,000 euros on Kraken on 13 January for BTC/Euro.  Fat fingers or short squeeze?!
That candle had no volume - so it was some kind of error. We were also at 6 cents usd on coinbase in april.

Have you had filled trades reversed? Assholes at BFX have done that to me.  Obviously decided I got too good a deal.
6325  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 29, 2018, 07:00:40 AM
EVASIVE MANEUVERS

BATTLE STATIONS

It’s just a wardrobe malfunction.
6326  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 29, 2018, 06:59:36 AM
Haha fuck.  Just saw the candle to 20,000 euros on Kraken on 13 January for BTC/Euro.  Fat fingers or short squeeze?!
6327  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 29, 2018, 05:15:50 AM
USDT is too scary for me.  I don’t mind playing dead cat bounces but I prefer my cat already dead, not at the top of the cliff.
6328  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 29, 2018, 04:46:24 AM
Tether just flashed down to 94 cents so it’s not completely over yet.
6329  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 29, 2018, 04:45:03 AM
What's up with ethereum? It doesn't make ANY sense to me. Especially not now that Bitcoin's mempool is "ok" and LN going forward...

Bitcoin is missing the ability to create tokens. We need token side chains.
6330  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 29, 2018, 01:27:05 AM
Wheee ?
6331  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 29, 2018, 12:48:06 AM
I recall that there are some folks researching into ways that they can either use the heat or generate some additional electricity from the mining heat by-product.

I have had some discussions with power station engineers.  The crux of it is that low grade heat (anything that is not hot enough to boil water) is considered a waste product and dumped to the atmosphere.  And these are fancy, high efficiency co-gen plants. 

 So it seems pretty unlikely that they will be able to generate electricity if not producing over 100 C (which I assume not).

My information is about 8 years old so it is possibly out of date.  
6332  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 28, 2018, 11:49:48 PM

Just because a certain exchange is in the lead of a trend does not mean that they are leading the price movement.

Sure.  I would welcome alternative explanations of what is going on in the market because I am trying to puzzle it out.  I am not saying that I am right. 

I was not accusing you of anything like that, but I just wanted to point out some possible misleading inferences in your post language.  And, over the years, several of us have read the kinds of inferences that were frequently made about "china leading" or even skorea leading or Japan, and the lead follow is much more complex than that, and likely changes with time and remains a kind of symbiotic relationship between exchanges with some exchanges having more credibility and pull than others, even if they might not actually lead in trade volume... Bitstamp, for example... has retained decent amount of persuasive power.. even though from time to time, it has gotten out of sync with the prevalent BTC prices, too.

All good points.  

The spread between Gdax and Bitfinex hs started shrinking.  It was as high as $500 and has now dropped to $300.  This suggests that the market has processed the risk of Tether and decided it is not such a big deal after all.  

If the spread keeps shrinking and gets down to say, $100, that would be bullish.
6333  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 28, 2018, 09:53:33 PM

Just because a certain exchange is in the lead of a trend does not mean that they are leading the price movement.

Sure.  I would welcome alternative explanations of what is going on in the market because I am trying to puzzle it out.  I am not saying that I am right. 
6334  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 28, 2018, 09:49:34 PM
At the time of this post the bid depth for BTC on BFX was 21,332 BTC and the ask depth was 8,825 BTC.

To do:  check depth in 24 hours.
6335  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 28, 2018, 09:40:39 PM
Where have all the big blockers gone?  

Where is our friend Gab0? Where is Peter R?  Who will lecture us on the burning necessity of big blocks now that they are no longer with us?

Should we start an “adopt a big blocker” program ?
6336  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 28, 2018, 08:42:57 PM
Here is my theory - posted here so people can pull it apart and make me smarter by pointing out my errors !

Like it or not, Coinbase / Gdax is a primary fiat gateway.  Fiat flows into crypto through Gdax and also flows out through Gdax.  During the rush to $19k, Gdax was often $500 ahead of Bitfinex and Bitstamp who had to be dragged kicking and screaming through arbitrage upwards.

Now we see a $500 gap in the other direction.  Bitfinex is trying to soar but Gdax is dragging it down through arbitrage.  The theory is that there is a net outflow of funds from crypto.

The test for my theory should be that the order books on Bitfinex should be shrinking - I have not tested this yet.
6337  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 28, 2018, 05:38:45 PM
The difference between Mt.Gox and Bitfinex is that, at that time, bitcoin had few use cases, and few exchanges, whereas now, is much more widespread, with lots of use cases and exchanges (there are even people using it to buy cars and houses).

So a Bitfinex scandal would not affect the price as much as Mt.Gox did.


Furthermore, a 500 million theft from a Japanese exchange last week curiously isn't even a talking point now. Are we just being ethno- and bitcoincentric or is this kind of shit just not so important anymore because of the larger ecosystem?

A hack of an exchange holding NEM has no real impact.  It’s like a bunch of Ripple was stolen.
6338  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 28, 2018, 11:50:57 AM
Bitfinex has a minimum withdrawal of 0.02 BTC meaning you can’t withdraw small amounts in BTC.
6339  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 28, 2018, 11:41:35 AM
Long term yes it’s good, we need to flush bad actors.  Short term it might sting a bit.
6340  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 28, 2018, 11:34:24 AM
That’s the 1BTC question isn’t it. Will Tether FUD create a pump? It looks like it is doing that right now. Except someone has to pay the piper at the end.

The brutal part is, a pump makes it worse due to FOMO out of Tether into crypto. 
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