Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bitcoinPsycho]

$12000 in one hour come on bitcoin

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[HairyMaclairy]

Here is my theory - posted here so people can pull it apart and make me smarter by pointing out my errors !

Like it or not, Coinbase / Gdax is a primary fiat gateway.  Fiat flows into crypto through Gdax and also flows out through Gdax.  During the rush to $19k, Gdax was often $500 ahead of Bitfinex and Bitstamp who had to be dragged kicking and screaming through arbitrage upwards.

Now we see a $500 gap in the other direction.  Bitfinex is trying to soar but Gdax is dragging it down through arbitrage.  The theory is that there is a net outflow of funds from crypto.

The test for my theory should be that the order books on Bitfinex should be shrinking - I have not tested this yet.

[jojo69]

WTF happened to the mempool? This is not the bitcoin i know. (i kid, i still remember 0 fee tx's)

Fees are as low as 1-10sat/b right now. I mean. What the fuck? https://bitcoinfees.earn.com/

Could it be that those spamming fucktards finally realized if bitcoin goes down they do too?

While scaling is certainly a problem, the apoplectic urgency expressed by the bigblockers was clearly a manufactured canard.

[OWZ1337]

$12000 in one hour come on bitcoin

 

BTCBTC revival

[bitcoinPsycho]

$12000 in one hour come on bitcoin

[img]https://i.ytimg.com/vi/AAP03GzKgPQ/maxresdefault.jpg[/img

 

BTCBTC revival

weeeee !

[rolling]

WTF happened to the mempool? This is not the bitcoin i know. (i kid, i still remember 0 fee tx's)

Fees are as low as 1-10sat/b right now. I mean. What the fuck? https://bitcoinfees.earn.com/

Could it be that those spamming fucktards finally realized if bitcoin goes down they do too?

Yep, 5 sats per byte will probably get you into the next block or two.

BTC/USD price/100 million = satoshi/USD price * satoshis per byte * bytes = USD transaction cost
$11,700 / 100,000,000 = $0.000117 * 5 * 225 = ~$0.13 cents for a standard 225 byte transaction

https://dedi.jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#24h

[JayJuanGee]

Whether it is conspiracy or not, we need to formulate some kind of explanation about why now coinbase is $200 below the BTC market price on the weekend, and in previous weekends it was $200 above.  Could be the network speed is increased, so easier to move bitcoins in and out of coinbase?  Could be manipulation to set an impression that selling is higher than buying - since coinbase is a pretty BIG onramp from fiat(including USD)?

Sounds like more people selling than buying causing pressure on the buy side to me

Why doesn't somebody with a Twitter acct just reach out and ask Brian A. what the hell is going on?
https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

^{(I don't use Twitter)}

Yeah right.  

As if he is going to answer with any kind of honesty or accurate depiction.

over 90% of the time something is going wrong (corrupt)

any trust in any exchange is naive - mtgox, cryptsy and trustworthy btc-e robbed by US fed, recent 500million exchange hack in japan etc etc etc

do not trust any of them, use them while you can, diversify exchanges and use hardware wallets

You seem to be exaggerating a bit in your post.

Sure, no one is saying to trust exchanges, but each of us have differing levels in which we use them and even keep some value on them.  I don't disagree with your overall point that they are risky and they are trusting 3d parties with your private keys; however, they also seem to be a necessary transitional evil that allows for liquidity that gives bitcoin value in the first place - and your 90% seems to be a bit misleading.   Yeah, bitcoin does not get hacked, it is third parties that screw up, but still your 90% makes it seem as if there is some kind of 90% chance that you are going to lose all your money on exchanges if you leave it there.

the new national cryptos coming out are going to legitimatize crypto and discredit competitors (bitcoin)

I don't know how this relates to anything in the previous post, so it sounds like you are bringing up a new seemingly exaggerated topic that you want to spread the news about some supposed centralized "competitors" to bitcoin.  Get the fuck out of here.  We already have thousands of quasi-centralized and supposed competitors to bitcoin, but there still remains to be something that bitcoin offers that distinguishes it from the others.. no?

the IMF new crypto based on the SDR will be the one to rule them all



something is coming

Very large and unsubstantiated speculation.  Is this a joke?

update: hypothesis

need more sheeple into crypto
pump btc higher
introduce safer nationalized crypto
IMF introduces global crypto
crash btc - discredit
flood of sheeple into centralized crypto

beware the sheeple

I would hate for this to happen

Sure, there maybe some plans like this, and what is the likelihood of success?  more than 50/50?   or really seems like you are talking about scenarios that are likely in the planning, but probably have less than a 5% chance of being successful, no?

[mindrust]

Maybe its the lightning network?

It is early to say that but what if they just don't want to lose the on-chain customers?

I mean if LN gets adopted widely, only a few will be using onchain transactions. That means a direct loss of income for miners. What if they stopped spamming so they can be competitive to LN to not lose fee income?

Fee Income from 10sat/b txs is still better than nothing, right? If that's the case, core team just scored another one.

[HairyMaclairy]

Where have all the big blockers gone?  

Where is our friend Gab0? Where is Peter R?  Who will lecture us on the burning necessity of big blocks now that they are no longer with us?

Should we start an “adopt a big blocker” program ?

[JayJuanGee]

WTF happened to the mempool? This is not the bitcoin i know. (i kid, i still remember 0 fee tx's)

Fees are as low as 1-10sat/b right now. I mean. What the fuck? https://bitcoinfees.earn.com/

Could it be that those spamming fucktards finally realized if bitcoin goes down they do too?

Didn't I see another post in this thread that gave a pretty decent rationale? 

It seems that the ongoing spamming was costing a pretty decent chunk of change on an ongoing basis, and it was seeming not to pay off, and it was also seeming to have some opposite effects too.  First of all the cost of keeping it going, and second of all it was causing greater financial motivations for the implementation of lightning - which was not a desired outcome.

[mindrust]

WTF happened to the mempool? This is not the bitcoin i know. (i kid, i still remember 0 fee tx's)

Fees are as low as 1-10sat/b right now. I mean. What the fuck? https://bitcoinfees.earn.com/

Could it be that those spamming fucktards finally realized if bitcoin goes down they do too?

Didn't I see another post in this thread that gave a pretty decent rationale?  

It seems that the ongoing spamming was costing a pretty decent chunk of change on an ongoing basis, and it was seeming not to pay off, and it was also seeming to have some opposite effects too.  First of all the cost of keeping it going, and second of all it was causing greater financial motivations for the implementation of lightning - which was not a desired outcome.

checks out with what i said 2 messages above.

Now they have no other chance other than being competitive/cheap. Or else LN will destroy them.

[JayJuanGee]

Here is my theory - posted here so people can pull it apart and make me smarter by pointing out my errors !

Like it or not, Coinbase / Gdax is a primary fiat gateway.  Fiat flows into crypto through Gdax and also flows out through Gdax.  During the rush to $19k, Gdax was often $500 ahead of Bitfinex and Bitstamp who had to be dragged kicking and screaming through arbitrage upwards.

Now we see a $500 gap in the other direction.  Bitfinex is trying to soar but Gdax is dragging it down through arbitrage.  The theory is that there is a net outflow of funds from crypto.

The test for my theory should be that the order books on Bitfinex should be shrinking - I have not tested this yet.

Just because a certain exchange is in the lead of a trend does not mean that they are leading the price movement.

[HairyMaclairy]

At the time of this post the bid depth for BTC on BFX was 21,332 BTC and the ask depth was 8,825 BTC.

To do:  check depth in 24 hours.

[jojo69]

Maybe its the lightning network?

It is early to say that but what if they just don't want to lose the on-chain customers?

I mean if LN gets adopted widely, only a few will be using onchain transactions. That means a direct loss of income for miners. What if they stopped spamming so they can be competitive to LN to not lose fee income?

Fee Income from 10sat/b txs is still better than nothing, right? If that's the case, core team just scored another one.

I hear that, but if you go to the BCash threads they are postulating that the miners are going to abandon BTC in droves due to the fee loss.

...

It seems that the ongoing spamming was costing a pretty decent chunk of change on an ongoing basis, and it was seeming not to pay off, and it was also seeming to have some opposite effects too.  First of all the cost of keeping it going, and second of all it was causing greater financial motivations for the implementation of lightning - which was not a desired outcome.

I agree with this, the only thing I would remind of is that the spammer in question likely negated a good bit of the costs as they were also mining the spammy blocks.

[HairyMaclairy]

Just because a certain exchange is in the lead of a trend does not mean that they are leading the price movement.

Sure.  I would welcome alternative explanations of what is going on in the market because I am trying to puzzle it out.  I am not saying that I am right. 

[mindrust]

Maybe its the lightning network?

It is early to say that but what if they just don't want to lose the on-chain customers?

I mean if LN gets adopted widely, only a few will be using onchain transactions. That means a direct loss of income for miners. What if they stopped spamming so they can be competitive to LN to not lose fee income?

Fee Income from 10sat/b txs is still better than nothing, right? If that's the case, core team just scored another one.

I hear that, but if you go to the BCash threads they are postulating that the miners are going to abandon BTC in droves due to the fee loss.

Who cares? As long as at least 1 person does some mining, we are fine. Miners thought they were special snowflakes. They are not. They already make money from the block rewards.

They'll leave and do what? Spam the bcash chain which nobody uses and ripoff people which don't even exist? Since nobody uses bcash who'll they be fucking?

They'll mine bitcoin whether they like it or not. Get rekt fucktards. Fucking parasites.

[jojo69]

I hear that, but if you go to the BCash threads they are postulating that the miners are going to abandon BTC in droves due to the fee loss.

Who cares? As long as at least 1 person does some mining, we are fine. Miners thought they were special snowflakes. They are not. They already make money from the block rewards.

They'll leave and do what? Spam the bcash chain which nobody uses and ripoff people which don't even exist? Since nobody uses bcash who'll they be fucking?

They'll mine bitcoin whether they like it or not. Get rekt fucktards. Fucking parasites.

I do not disagree, I was just slumming over on their thread and wanted people to be aware of what they are thinking over there.

There does seem to be some cognitive dissonance involved.

[Deeyoh]

Switching to BCH due to tx fee loss is crazy.. just look at the bcash transaction amount maybe a few hundred tx's per block. Maybe.. it's a ghost network.   They'll shoot themselves in the foot again by switching to mining it.

[mOgliE]

$12000 in one hour come on bitcoin

Yeah don't hope too much...
There is a need for a bubble. And a need for its explosion.

Exactly like the last one here there is a possibility for the price to go reaaaaaally low and I think it will. Think about how many people bought at 17k$ and are waiting for the price to go a little bit up for selling. There is a really big resistance that won't allow the price to go up for some times :/

[UnDerDoG81]

Sorry for that stupidish question. I invested 2013 in Bitcoin and holding since then. My Coins are on a paper wallet and I don't have much to do with cryptos since then. Everybody is talking about tether these days. I have no idea what that is again. Do I have to do anything with my bitcoins before this tether thing crashes? Or simply hold another few years?

It isn't stupid to ask IMO.
Very briefly:
Tether, as per the FAQ pointed above, is a substitute for USD pegged 1:1.
It's being used to add fiat-like liquidity.
There are worries of over-creation of tether (fractional reserve), along with more complex hypotheses.
If it is a fake, and it pops, there will be some blood and unpleasant consequences on BTC price.
However, bitcoin has lived through worse events (Gox, for example). If one believes in the long-term future of bitcoin, tether shouldn't be able to sway their course of action for the long run.

TL;DR: Just hodl.

Thanks! I wish I would have paid out 50% at ~20k. Holding for another 2-3 years, long time.