Anyone who understands what the man is talking? 

(I have been called "the greatest linear thinker alive", but even that is too much I think...)

That picture was much used in the "great denial" market stage in May

Explosion is due to a simple matter. Europe goes to sleep and prepares for flashcrashes. Of Bitstamp's bids, 5% are mine. When I wake up, I lift them and then the price may move again. Probably not the only one thinking like this..

Bank of Finland (branch of ECB; the Central Bank of Finland) has expressly stated that one is free to decide what he accepts as payment, and this may mean the exclusion of Euro, the official currency. Exception to this are government-sanctioned monopolies such as pharmacies. They are obligated to accept Euro as payment.

In theory, "Euro" is an unlimited number of banknotes of 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200 and 500 euros, and maximum 50 coins per transaction.

In practice, "Euro" can mean credit and debit cards, even to the exclusion of cash altogether. Also many services do not accept 100 or larger notes, also many places accept more than 50 coins since they probably don't know that they could reject it. Or don't care.

Today was a really intense day. I turned bear. That does not happen often, and there is always the chance to be wrong. If you want to reap the juiciest rewards, you have to act before the others. Then you better bear the uncertainty.

During the bubble top, BTC China had a maximum of 75% premium over Bitstamp. I set myself to explore this opportunity, whether it is viable to open an account there and sell bitcoins, even though the chances of receiving fiat currency in return are slim (CNY has currency controls and I don't have many links to Chinese banks). I decided that the arbitrage opportunity even without the fiat exit is good enough reason to go China, and opened the account.

During the day I bought 10 million CNY, which kind of feels funny. (Until Tuesday I had had no plans to play in China.) In addition I sold coins at Bitstamp, which rose higher than I expected a few hours ago, providing an opportunity.

The following 48 hours are most critical concerning the bubble/no-bubble issue. If we fail to surpass yesterday's highs, and make even lower highs (and potentially lower lows), then this was indeed a bubble, and it will get weeks to sort it out, with the opportunity to buy at $300s at some point(s).

In the complementary scenario, highs are broken and/or flashcrashes abate, we enjoy a week or so of high consolidation ($500 or over) before assaulting new highs. This is a possibility, but I stick to my evaluation that it is less probable than bubblepop. I have written extensively in Wall Observer about the matter. Perhaps open a new thread inspired by SlipperySlope's bubble collapse journal.

There are so many things that can happen but have not yet happened. DDoS, hacks, scams, bubblepop articles, REAL dumps, etc. If we evade all this and happily continue up despite that we are already 1.8x the trendline, I am gladly wrong.

In this case, somebody help me how to spend the ¥10M...  


To whom it may concern: The trades revealed in the public diary have been executed on behalf of numerous entities in multiple jurisdictions. As such, they do not correspond to the ownership, holding, position or change thereof, or realizing of taxable or tax-deductible gains/losses or income of any natural or corporate Person.

The exchanges are incurable. Do I really need to do this?  

I am also accumulating physical. Diversification and holistic analysis tells me that silver is still important. Gold - not so much. It has lost its appeal with brainwallets 

Any way to short diamonds, anyone?   

Wait. I will call big brother.

We don't need fiat profits.

The ones who are interested in fiat do not have so many coins that they could make a dent in the price. As I told above, dump is either manipulative speculation (I) or nasty manipulative speculation (II).


The battle is during the next 24-48 hours. If we can force China to stay below 4000, even better <3000, and make a row of daily red candles in western exchanges, then this was officially a bubble, and a bear market will commence for the remainder of the year. The price is still so high, it is profitable to sell and buy back cheaper -

I invite you to join the BEARS!

It looks sad. I sold all my paper metals today.

The dumps serve twofold purpose:
- Opportunity to sell many coins at reasonable prices
- Scare effect.

Now the price was just too good

Remember - manipulators are never out of coins.

I wasn't angry

But you are right, someone else will continue dumping from now. The gox dump was not me. Expect a new low in MtGox, perhaps also Stamp (not sure is 378 can be crossed). China will totally lose air while I am sleeping (9pm here). 3000 CNY max.

With MtGox, Bitstamp, BTCe and BTC China.

Bitcoin is appreciating at 1140% per year. The trendline price for November is $328 and December $404. After several months of significantly behind the trend, we did a spectacular overshoot to $1100/$900/$750 across main exchanges. Immediately followed an hourly-term bear market, characterized by (mainly) lower highs and lower lows. We are now 40 hours after the pop.

Currently the price is at double the trendtarget. You can stretch a rubber band a lot, but when you release, it starts to contract with force. Force must be applied to reverse the course and stretch it back to 3, 4 or more times the trend. The natural tendency of the rubber band is to contract to the trendline and even 25%-40% below it.

Since this bubble developed so rapidly, the trend had no time to catch up or adjust. Therefore, despite my earlier predictions that the next crash bottom will be $500ish (double the pre-bubble ATH), I will have to adjust the downside target to about $300. This is 33% below December trendline, and also higher than the previous ATH, which will act as support. There are currently not many supports between that and the new high. These will be formed as we grind down.

In my observation, the forum is overextended and cannot buy the price up. "Others" will act according to time-tested statistical principles (refer to 4/2013 bubble pop for details). There will be a bear market lasting for weeks. Many in this forum will not acknowledge it even after it is over It will not be a huge event, and absolutely nothing to care about if you are a long-term holder. But traders do well to understand that sometimes even fiat has its day.

I believe that none of the exchanges surpasses yesterday's high values ($1000/$750/$640) set about 24 hours ago, today or during the remainder of the year, (except Bitstamp at max).

I believe that none of the exchanges surpasses the current values ($700/$630/$600) during the rest of the week, (except for the following hours).

I give 75% probability to the scenario.

Otherwise the common wisdom does not hold, and 2010 is back.

In daily chart this does not even hold.. 

This kind of posts remind me of the return-to-normal stage in the classical bubble picture. I have given only 25% odds that we will rest here a few days and challenge the recent highs in short order. 75% that we will have a correction similar but milder than April.


A bull is a person who does not hold fiat.

A bear is a person who holds at least some fiat and wants to return to BTC.

As you can see, I am now a bear. But almost everybody else are bulls. What this means is that you do not have the means to influence price to the upside. Only we do. But we are very few. Also the newbies do. But will they really buy in this kind of situation?

Who owns the bitcoins? Large holders, forum activists, savers, traders and newbies. There are so many groups and so many in the groups that will contemplate selling after every passing hour. Volume is so low that even BTC10,000 dump is devastating. China is still 60% higher than a week ago, and just scoring the second negative day. (They don't give a squat about bitcoin, just want the profits.)

I think the intraday high should be just about reached now. Expect a vicious dump during the following 20 hours.

It is so easy to sell in China. I started the selling program yesterday when I realized that the price had overshot:

- Open the account in BTC China
- After a few hours you get confirmation email
- You can fund your account instantly (no limit in funding)
- Selling works well and liquidity is good - today I have already bought 6.2M CNY  

I managed to lose a trading password, needed for initiating transactions. They reseted it on the phone, doing overtime. The clerk spoke very good English. The KYC procedure is also reasonable. No trading fees. Why should I ever trade in the western snailexchange??

Oh yes. How to get back the profits? There is currently a healthy 24% arbitrage between Stamp and BTC China. If you sell now in China, you get $680 equivalent of CNY. When the premium evaporates (during the last 6 months, about half of the time premium has been about 0% and most of the time <10%), you buy back, transfer to Bitstamp, sell and pocket the money.

I don't see how China premium could not revert to <10% in the next 2 days.

I have adjusted my assessment of the exchange rate and its near-term development as follows (originally posted in Wall Observer):

I have also increased the odds that we are in a bubble correction to about 75%. That said, I expect the following things happen:

- Lowest recorded trade will be in $2XX range, bigger volume around $300.
- It will take only 3-6 months to regain the old highs.
- Volume will all the time be lower than in previous situations, there is no widespread panic or general capitulation

Two bubbles in 2013   Who could have thought...

Beating the yesterday's intraday high (BS: $640, Gox: $750, BTCC: $1000) makes me increase the odds that this is just a weekly consolidation. Every day in declining trend erodes the new investor confidence and induces more and more sales from the earlier investor community.

Isn't that what "they" do? What was the news here? Except your brainchild that 350,000 earliest adopters will be jailed and more than all the gains will be confiscated after the comsummative bubble... I think the probability of that occurring is so low that I will gladly continue holding my bitcoins and soliciting them to others as part of a balanced portfolio.