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Question: July 21 Closing Price:
<$5,000 - 15 (12.2%)
$5,000-$5,500 - 5 (4.1%)
$5,500-$6,000 - 13 (10.6%)
$6,000-$6,500 - 23 (18.7%)
$6,500-$7,000 - 21 (17.1%)
$7,000-$7,500 - 13 (10.6%)
$7,500-$8,000 - 12 (9.8%)
$8,000-$8,500 - 3 (2.4%)
$8,500-$9,000 - 3 (2.4%)
>$9,000 - 15 (12.2%)
Total Voters: 123

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 20331421 times)
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rpietila
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November 20, 2013, 02:05:37 PM
 #46361

I have also increased the odds that we are in a bubble correction to about 75%. That said, I expect the following things happen:

- Lowest recorded trade will be in $2XX range, bigger volume around $300.
- It will take only 3-6 months to regain the old highs.
- Volume will all the time be lower than in previous situations, there is no widespread panic or general capitulation

Two bubbles in 2013  Cheesy Who could have thought...

Beating the yesterday's intraday high (BS: $640, Gox: $750, BTCC: $1000) makes me increase the odds that this is just a weekly consolidation. Every day in declining trend erodes the new investor confidence and induces more and more sales from the earlier investor community.
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Miz4r
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November 20, 2013, 02:06:41 PM
 #46362

I smell 2011.
It's really too bad for people who can't imagine how 2013 could possibly be like 2011 because they weren't here at the time.

Yes you're so smart Blitz you were there back in 2011 and you know exactly how history will repeat itself right now in November 2013. Even though you thought the same thing after the April 2013 crash, but this time it will really really be just like 2011. It has to be.  Roll Eyes
Nightowlace
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November 20, 2013, 02:09:04 PM
 #46363

IMO it in everyone's best interest (including manipulators, not including April-style conspiracy theories or 2011-stype Ponzi fears) that we had this major correction, but not for it to be seen as a bubble-pop, in order to make even better profits if/when it really pops once well into the 4-figures. Whether you prefer fiat or BTC, it's surely more beneficial for the correction to end around about the current price, give or take.

You think new money is going to come in after they saw the clear crash that just happened? That, and uncertain dodgy exchanges that hold no certainty in regards to regulatory and legal issues. I think we just need a better platform to trade bitcoins on, that holds no uncertainty in regards to regulation and law, and is operated by reputable people.

Sure, some new money will be more careful after stamp's pitfall, but if this is perceived as a correction, not a crash/pop, I expect a huge influx of new money nonetheless

$900 to $400 is a bubble pop. Period. It's not a healthy correction. It's not a consolidation. It is exactly what I've been talking about. The WORST thing that can happen to Bitcoin. I posted on FB the other day "Bitcoin on the rise about to break $800" huge amount of comments all similar to "wow, awesome, congrats". Then the emails start pouring in. Questions, thoughts, what, how, where. Today I wake up to those same people saying "man I'm glad I sat that out, dude do you want to cut your wrists or what, glad I didn't throw any money in is lose half and still be losing"  

The people on this forum are bitcoiners. The people in the real world are not. They don't give a shit about the technology, they don't believe bitcoins will replace their fiat currency, the only thing they see it as is something they can invest in and every time we start to see some solid new money come in everyone starts speculating and the whales start taking advantage. The only thing people currently see and are talking about "Bitcoin crashes yet again, and costs investors billions".

Wake up people. For people who are so smart, your pretty dumb to try and fool yourself and others that this is healthy and just a nice correction/consolidation.

How is it any worse than the other two times? Also, when it gets much higher your friends will reverse their opinions again, yet probably not buy in, then it will 'crash' again, and the process will repeat over and over just as it always does with Bitcoin.

Every time it's a bigger bubble, bigger losses, and more negative publicity. Which is why they won't buy in.
Which is why they will never buy. Which is why there will never be mass adoption. Which is why Bitcoin will never become all of the things we had hoped it would.
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November 20, 2013, 02:09:34 PM
 #46364

I have also increased the odds that we are in a bubble correction to about 75%. That said, I expect the following things happen:

Are you sure this isn't just because of that dude who keeps putting up and pulling his 1500BTC wall on Gox?
Nemesis
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November 20, 2013, 02:10:58 PM
 #46365

wow YOU TOUCHED MY WALL!!!!

Yup that was my wall, i use bot to pull it. Suckers who sold b4 my walls gonna hate me now.


Edit: see noobs? this is how you can get manipulated..
mmitech
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November 20, 2013, 02:13:37 PM
 #46366

wow YOU TOUCHED MY WALL!!!!

Yup that was my wall, i use bot to pull it. Suckers who sold b4 my walls gonna hate me now.


Edit: see noobs? this is how you can get manipulated..

you are not the owner of that wall so stop your BS
micalith
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November 20, 2013, 02:14:42 PM
 #46367

wow YOU TOUCHED MY WALL!!!!

Yup that was my wall, i use bot to pull it. Suckers who sold b4 my walls gonna hate me now.



lol   Cheesy
gambitv
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November 20, 2013, 02:14:46 PM
 #46368



Interesting how sentiment quickly changes in this thread. Seems to me people forget we have reached double the ATH time and again.

So if you are a believer in bitcoin but would still like your fiat back, just hang on, and jump out at $1510. ( 2 * ath is 2 * 755.0 for bitstamp ).

For Gox you have to put your sell order at $1801.96 ( 2 * 900.98  ).
Nightowlace
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November 20, 2013, 02:16:20 PM
 #46369

I've used this analogy before;

Go to walmart explain Bitcoin to the employees and shoppers.
Report results.
Then tell them I know I told you to buy in at $800 and we are currently at $453 but it will be okay. This is a healthy correction.
Report results. ...... That is if your not hog tied in someone's garage with a shotgun to your head and some guy yelling "boy, you told me to buy this god damn internet money and you host me half my life savings"
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November 20, 2013, 02:16:55 PM
 #46370

I smell 2011.
It's really too bad for people who can't imagine how 2013 could possibly be like 2011 because they weren't here at the time.

It's different this time. China market simply overheated, but still there is a large premium when buying Bitcoin in China which tells me that the engine driving the ride still has enough steam to carry this rally.
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November 20, 2013, 02:17:50 PM
 #46371

Every time it's a bigger bubble, bigger losses, and more negative publicity. Which is why they won't buy in.
Which is why they will never buy. Which is why there will never be mass adoption. Which is why Bitcoin will never become all of the things we had hoped it would.

What are you talking about? The 2011 bubble was the biggest bubble of all and those who bought at the top would be sitting on huge profits right now. This drop from $900 to $453 is also peanuts compared to the crash in April, so the bubbles are only getting smaller and the losses as well. There is no such thing as negative publicity for bitcoin.
NamelessOne
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November 20, 2013, 02:18:27 PM
 #46372

wow YOU TOUCHED MY WALL!!!!

Yup that was my wall, i use bot to pull it. Suckers who sold b4 my walls gonna hate me now.


Edit: see noobs? this is how you can get manipulated..

you are not the owner of that wall so stop your BS
Based on how many coins he has and his trading strategy I bet it actually is, hehe.  Cheesy
Nightowlace
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November 20, 2013, 02:18:33 PM
 #46373

I smell 2011.
It's really too bad for people who can't imagine how 2013 could possibly be like 2011 because they weren't here at the time.

It's different this time. China market simply overheated, but still there is a large premium when buying Bitcoin in China which tells me that the engine driving the ride still has enough steam to carry this rally.

Until China sells, takes profit and/or the regime says no more.  
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November 20, 2013, 02:19:27 PM
 #46374


Interesting how sentiment quickly changes in this thread. Seems to me people forget we have reached double the ATH time and again.


Indeed, ~half a year after the previous one. These cycles are damn fast.
el_rlee
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November 20, 2013, 02:19:54 PM
 #46375

I smell 2011.
It's really too bad for people who can't imagine how 2013 could possibly be like 2011 because they weren't here at the time.

It's different this time. China market simply overheated, but still there is a large premium when buying Bitcoin in China which tells me that the engine driving the ride still has enough steam to carry this rally.

Until China sells, takes profit and/or the regime says no more.  

I give you the last one. Big miracle so far.
The first two are out of the question.
NamelessOne
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November 20, 2013, 02:20:16 PM
 #46376

IMO it in everyone's best interest (including manipulators, not including April-style conspiracy theories or 2011-stype Ponzi fears) that we had this major correction, but not for it to be seen as a bubble-pop, in order to make even better profits if/when it really pops once well into the 4-figures. Whether you prefer fiat or BTC, it's surely more beneficial for the correction to end around about the current price, give or take.

You think new money is going to come in after they saw the clear crash that just happened? That, and uncertain dodgy exchanges that hold no certainty in regards to regulatory and legal issues. I think we just need a better platform to trade bitcoins on, that holds no uncertainty in regards to regulation and law, and is operated by reputable people.

Sure, some new money will be more careful after stamp's pitfall, but if this is perceived as a correction, not a crash/pop, I expect a huge influx of new money nonetheless

$900 to $400 is a bubble pop. Period. It's not a healthy correction. It's not a consolidation. It is exactly what I've been talking about. The WORST thing that can happen to Bitcoin. I posted on FB the other day "Bitcoin on the rise about to break $800" huge amount of comments all similar to "wow, awesome, congrats". Then the emails start pouring in. Questions, thoughts, what, how, where. Today I wake up to those same people saying "man I'm glad I sat that out, dude do you want to cut your wrists or what, glad I didn't throw any money in is lose half and still be losing"  

The people on this forum are bitcoiners. The people in the real world are not. They don't give a shit about the technology, they don't believe bitcoins will replace their fiat currency, the only thing they see it as is something they can invest in and every time we start to see some solid new money come in everyone starts speculating and the whales start taking advantage. The only thing people currently see and are talking about "Bitcoin crashes yet again, and costs investors billions".

Wake up people. For people who are so smart, your pretty dumb to try and fool yourself and others that this is healthy and just a nice correction/consolidation.

How is it any worse than the other two times? Also, when it gets much higher your friends will reverse their opinions again, yet probably not buy in, then it will 'crash' again, and the process will repeat over and over just as it always does with Bitcoin.

Every time it's a bigger bubble, bigger losses, and more negative publicity. Which is why they won't buy in.
Which is why they will never buy. Which is why there will never be mass adoption. Which is why Bitcoin will never become all of the things we had hoped it would.

Lol so why are you here? Because more people are doing bitcoin now then EVER, and your friends will miss the train, too bad for them.
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November 20, 2013, 02:20:57 PM
 #46377

Every time it's a bigger bubble, bigger losses, and more negative publicity. Which is why they won't buy in.
Which is why they will never buy. Which is why there will never be mass adoption. Which is why Bitcoin will never become all of the things we had hoped it would.

What are you talking about? The 2011 bubble was the biggest bubble of all and those who bought at the top would be sitting on huge profits right now. This drop from $900 to $453 is also peanuts compared to the crash in April, so the bubbles are only getting smaller and the losses as well. There is no such thing as negative publicity for bitcoin.

+1 This.
sonofliberty
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November 20, 2013, 02:23:38 PM
 #46378

Every time it's a bigger bubble, bigger losses, and more negative publicity. Which is why they won't buy in.
Which is why they will never buy. Which is why there will never be mass adoption. Which is why Bitcoin will never become all of the things we had hoped it would.

What are you talking about? The 2011 bubble was the biggest bubble of all and those who bought at the top would be sitting on huge profits right now. This drop from $900 to $453 is also peanuts compared to the crash in April, so the bubbles are only getting smaller and the losses as well. There is no such thing as negative publicity for bitcoin.

Damn right.
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November 20, 2013, 02:24:30 PM
 #46379

Every time it's a bigger bubble, bigger losses, and more negative publicity. Which is why they won't buy in.
Which is why they will never buy. Which is why there will never be mass adoption. Which is why Bitcoin will never become all of the things we had hoped it would.

What are you talking about? The 2011 bubble was the biggest bubble of all and those who bought at the top would be sitting on huge profits right now. This drop from $900 to $453 is also peanuts compared to the crash in April, so the bubbles are only getting smaller and the losses as well. There is no such thing as negative publicity for bitcoin.

qft
kehtolo
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November 20, 2013, 02:24:57 PM
 #46380

Cup and handle pattern on Gox and btcchina (and to a lesser extent Stamp)

Price is rising. Could be the end of this consolidation phase.. or drawing near to it.
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