Underestimated Porte here, great race by him. Uran easy (should have staked more, lol)

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Bernal looked really bad ! On the positive side of things, we will maybe see him going on the attack now to secure a stage win, if it was just a jour sans.

But Ineos is going down a bit as a whole. The death of Nicolas Portal surely has some impact, but also the team spirit has suffered a bit imo, with the big leaders not being present or not even in the team no more (Thomas, Kiryienka, Knees, Froome etc). They don't seem like a unit no more to me, it's a wild mix of very good riders. Jumbo is the new Sky/Ineos now

And I am sure that Doping is still very present in the peloton, maybe something changed there as well.

I watched 3 games in full and had a look into various games (ATL-SEA, BUF-NYJ, CAR-LV, WAS-PHI).

Got a bit lucky with hitting the bet on Washington, but lost the under there, because WAS scored too many points - never thought I would have to write that Their D-Line totally dominated the PHI O-Line in second half and Wentz spent a lot of time on the ground (8 sacks). Washington was quite poor offensively, but the defense often gave them very good field position. Eagles have lots of injury trouble and lost two (?) more guys during the game. They better get some players back (Johnson f.e.) or they will keep on losing.

Was curious about how the new Patriots look and well, it was an ugly game and the Dolphins are no benchmark. I think Cam did well all in all and he got the W for them, which is what matters in the end. Seattle is 1.46 / HC-4.5 against them for next week and this looks huge value to me. Seattle looked very good in Atlanta This will probably be my main bet for next week.

Cardinals win was a big surprise to me. I don't know why, but I don't like Murray at QB for them. His numbers are good, but every time I see him play, I think he is poor. They have a nice tandem at WR with Fitzgerald/Hopkins now, but it was the defense that got them the win in the end. 49ers were disappointing, nowhere near the team we saw last year - no passion, no aggressiveness.

Saints game was a nice one and yes, Brady still needs to work on a few things. I was a bit worried with him having caught the Winston-disease, but he played on ok game. Starting at the Saints is not easy, next week against Carolina they should secure their first win

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As for the new normal without spectators: I thought it's not that of a big deal as I was fearing. This artificial noise helps a bit, but the main thing that made it bearable for me is that with the normal camera view, you don't see the spectators anyway. In soccer you always see the empty stands during play, which makes it kind of weird subconsciously.
It felt like there were very few false starts/neutral zone infractions, which is due to no noise as well imo.

What was the prize again for the worst performance in a round ? Can't seem to find that information in first post jk

The games in this round weren't easy to predict, but I am still sitting at zero points Kudos to hahay for getting 9pts already, thats quite impressive. LaLiga has always been a league I didn't find that interesting, but don't know why. I think there are a lot of boring games (apart from the obviously exciting ones in general, i.e. RM vs Barca) and the atmosphere in the stadiums is not catching me as well. But I also joined here to get some more knowledge about this league and seems there is a lot of work to be done in that department.

Took that one as well now as already announced above. It's a divisional game, so high-ish HC is a bit meh, but I don't see the Jets going anywhere this season.

Putting a small bet on Washington ML (3.05) and the under 42.5 in that game too. That O-Line from the Eagles isn't very strong without Johnson/Brooks and that should play into the strength of WAS, plus they had two good games against PHI last season. There were loads of points scored in these two games, but I don't see this happening today.
My gut feeling says that we will see rather few points in general, since most teams will be rusty due to short preparation time and they haven't played competitive football for ages. Defensively this shouldn't be that much of a problem, but offensively you have to be in sync to march down the field, it's just a more sophisticated system. Lets see

Hehe, yes, 6-0 already, this is always a bit annoying, when you are waiting for good odds inplay but what can you do, there will be other opportunities. Kiel is also steamrolling Rielasingen after being down 0-1 early. St. Pauli already in huge trouble as expected, they won't make it into next round I guess, just a poor cup team somehow.

Yep, but Berlin/Düsseldorf only played teams from one division lower and Frankfurt/Osnabrück had real away games. The Bundesliga teams that had home games did very well:


6-0
4-1
5-1
8-0
7-0

The 2. Bundesliga teams had a harder time:


3-0
1-1 (6-1 after ET)

For today there are still 2 matches left, where home advantage did change:


So I probably won't touch Kiel. Leverkusen still looks good from what we witnessed yesterday, but I don't like the expected line-up from them and they are a team that often struggles against inferior opposition. Maybe better for inplay and play some HC during second half, when Norderstedt players are getting tired.

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All in all there are more interesting matches today and I expect more drama, extra times etc. Elversberg - St. Pauli, Rostock - Stuttgart, K'lautern - Regensburg, Magdeburg - Darmstadt, Mannheim-Freiburg, Wehen- Heidenheim all look to be close ones. Should be an exciting afternoon/evening

No, they are not safe For beginners or not so advanced betting people, I would even recommend to not go with this strategy, since the bookmakers/markets tend to put more value into the higher odds, because a lot of people do actually play these small odds. So the less value they put there, the better for the bookmaker longterm. When a team like Liverpool, Kansas City, Barcelona lose, this is always payday for bookmakers. And these <1.20 bets lose more often than you would think

But you can find value in all odds, can be 1.01 or 1000, it's just harder to spot the value in these low odds for beginners.

Poor bet Though there were some hopes for it in the end, but it needed a mechanical problem for that^^

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I played Landa tb Porte for today at around 1.70. I always thought that Porte is way overrated on these longer climbs. Tbf in the last years he often had some health issues which prevented him to show what he has still left or what he is capable of. Landa should like todays stage with the big diesel he is. As said before, Porte often finishes last in his group, so this is another option to win this bet.


The schedule for sport fans is just brutal today. There is also the US Open final, lots of football in Germany/England/Spain, Formula1. Don't have enough screens/TV's for all that

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Adding Uran tb Quintana for 2.0. Uran already beat him in the last two moutain stages and Quintana was involved in that crash lately, which caused Mollema/Bardet to abandon the race. Lets see, if he is 100% fit.

I am definitely rooting for him, since I just adore this guy. From the very moment he joined the pro peloton, he was super exciting to watch and apart from hard/long mountain top finishes he can basically do it all, this is very rare. On top of that, he never had the huge team support other guys had and he still was more successfull than them. And he made me lots of money over the years

He revolutionized the way to win the green jersey and the stunt he did today for the bonus sprint is a proof of that. Didn't really pay off, but very creative

No, I never played there For some reason their site doesn't attract me and they are all the same nowadays more or less.

I wouldn't overthink things. Just make a small deposit to maybe FJ/Stake, play a little and see if you like it, you can always deposit more, costs just some tx fees. If you don't like it, just withdraw (if there is anything left ) and deposit to betonline/Bovada/bookmaker, where you'll then get KYCed sooner or later for a withdrawal. You don't have to choose one bookmaker now and play there for the rest of your life, just check some out and see which one suits your needs the best. Deposits/withdrawal are super fast and cheap these days, so no problem in hopping around a bit^^

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I have played some outright bets to spice things up a bit for the upcoming season. Not expecting to get anything in return, it's more for fun and with small money. All regular season wins:

Cardinals over 7.5 @1.84 (they had 5 wins last season and I expect them to improve further, they have one of the easiest schedules with Washington, Lions, Panthers, Jets, Dolphins, Patriots (sorry Pats fans^^), Giants, Rams²)
Bills over 9 @1.87 (Easy division this year, kept most of their players, had 10 last year)
Carolina under 5.5 @2.21 (not expecting anything from them this season and 6 is a lot, when you are likely to go 0-6 in your division already)
Raiders over 7.5 @2.04 (I think Raiders will be good this season, don't ask me why)
Vikings over 9 @2.13 (They will win NFC North imo, last season 10 wins and they will be better this season overall)
Patriots under 9 @1.62 (so many players opted out, no Brady, getting 10 wins will be super hard, 9 is a push then, but I am expecting less)
Giants over 6 @1.84 (fanboy, lol)

Yes. I was pretty sure, that GvA would be among the attackers today, but nope. Looks like the peloton hasn't given up yet though, so lets see, this is a very long stage


Bennett still has the Paris stage for full points and Stage 14&19, where we could maybe see a sprint. Question is, how successful Sagan will be with his tactics to collect the bonus sprint points by going into groups in the mountain(eous) stages ?

Stage 13: Good chance, bonus sprint comes after some climbs.
Stage 14: Early sprint
Stage 15: Early sprint
Stage 16: Early sprint
Stage 17: Early sprint
Stage 18: Early sprint
Stage 19: No big obstacles before sprint
Stage 20: ITT
Stage 21: Whole peloton will contest bonus sprint

When there is an early sprint, QuickStep won't allow Sagan to take it and chase a group of attackers, where he is in. I don't think Sagan will take the green jersey this year, there are not enough opportunities to get cheap points and catch up.

They are still competitive, but way less under these circumstances imo. And if this is not priced in, then the HC's on the favs should carry some value.


I think motivation has different layers. Your point is correct, but not the whole story about what motivates athletes imo. Are you more motivated when playing in an empty or packed stadium with great atmosphere ? This is also about getting attention and immediate feedback, every player wants to be the hero and score a nice goal, make a nice tackling with fans going crazy etc. Or you just want to silence the crowd in an away game Fans (and other things) motivate a lot - just playing against Bayern, Dortmund etc. is maybe just 50% of what a 100% motivation is.

This was relatively easy, some minutes of sweating after Shanghai managed to equalize late in the game, but 1-1 FT. Playing unders is really annoying, I can literally not watch/enjoy the game

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Henan - Shenzhen / Shenzhen ML @1.94 5/10

Henan is a mess right now and as it seems they will miss an important striker on top for this game. They have very slim chances to qualify for Top4, so they won't be too motivated. Shenzhen still has very good chances for Top4 and have been doing ok in the last weeks (losing to Guangzhou is nothing to be ashamed of). 1.94 is still ok, but I wouldn't place a bet if it goes below 1.80.

Dalian - Shanghai Shenhua / Dalian -0.25 @1.76 4/10

Shanghai will keep playing with only two import players, which is a huge disadvantage. Dalian has full squad and amongst them some very good import players (Hamsik f.e.). They had good results lately and are still fighting to get into Top4. With a win here, they could catch up with Shanghai. A draw is very likely (Shanghai has good defense as said before) and probably the result Shanghai is aiming for in first place, so the -0.25 gives a little bit of insurance.

Expecting a super exciting stage today:


https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/tour-de-france/2020/stage-12/today/profiles

The GC guys will take it easy today and we will see the winner coming from the attackers most likely. This will be ridden like a Classics and it looks tailor-made for Greg van Avermaet, who showed promising form in the last days.

Van Avermaet tb Alaphilippe @2.03 Pinnacle (you can get slightly lower odds at crypto books)

This stage is also tailor-made for Alaphilippe, but tomorrows stage will be on home soil for him, so I guess he will try to get into the group tomorrow and take it easy today. Top3 for GvA looks also good at around 4.50, but tb Ala is a bit safer I think.

I think this will make a huge difference, yes, but I am not saying that every HC will get beat For these small teams, their own ground is their living room. They probably go there by bike, have some fun with their teammates, a beer after practice/game; it's a very comfortable environment for them. In such a big game, they have friends and family by their side and it's overall a big party in these often small towns/villages. All this is gone with forfeiting home advantage and going on a an away trip.

And the difference is also for the teams that now have home advantage, which works in their favour They don't have to deal with all the things, that make these small teams often times very competitive on that given day.

I have accounts in these traditional bookmakers and never experienced any issues:

https://www.bookmaker.eu/
You will not have to do KYC immediately imo, but when you withdraw for the first time. They accept BTC, but you will bet in USD. US customers from all states accepted.

https://www.betonline.ag/
See above. In addition they have lots of special markets and bets for NFL for example, which lacks a bit in bookmaker.eu for my liking.

I don't have an account here (geo-blocked), but it's an established and trusted book:

https://www.bovada.lv

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I guess you know most of the crypto books, since they advertise here in this forum FJ is maybe my favourite because of the very nice UI and general smoothness when navigating. Stake is nice as well, though the site is a bit annoying/weary/slow.

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ESPN ran it's annual simulation and the Chiefs will win the SB again - this time against the Cowboys Brady will lead the Bucs into NFC Championship game.....

Yes, could be worth a try, maybe +1 for ~2.10; this is also a little (state) derby. Schwolow is no big loss imo - there are barely problems with good goalies in german football - but Koch and Waldschmidt are surely not easy to replace. Mannheim did quite well last season after promotion and they were pretty solid defensively. The only issue I see is the lack of spectators, who normally always have a big impact on the lower division home teams. This advantage is gone completely and the environment in Mannheim can be super hostile. Which also leads me to the next point......

......since some smaller clubs forfeited their home advantage. This is due to them not being able to meet all the Corona requirements or it's just not worth it on a financial level. So for quite a lot of matches home/away changed:

Altglienecke - Köln
Fürstenwalde - Wolfsburg
Norderstedt - Leverkusen
Havelse - Mainz
Schweinfurt - Schalke
Engers – Bochum
Oberneuland – Gladbach
Meinerzhagen – Fürth
Celle – Augsburg
Rielasingen - Kiel
Düren - Bayern
(Todesfelde - Osnabrück TBD)

All the teams on the right will actually have home advantage. I am not sure, if this is already priced in - I think not. And then again placing HC bets on the favourites should result in good profits

So I am throwing these bets in the mix

Köln -2.5 (~2.10)
Wolfsburg -3.5 (~1.80)
Leverkusen -3.5 (~1.80)
Mainz -2.5 (~1.90)
Schalke -2.5 (~1.90)
Bochum -3 (~1.80)
Gladbach -3.5 (~1.80)
Fürth -2.5 (~1.90)
Augsburg -3.5 (~1.90)
Kiel -2.5 (~1.80)

I am not sure, which one of these I will actually play, but just some input^^ Leverkusen, Gladbach and Kiel I probably like the most.

I checked in a bookmaker that often has some crazy bets, but nothing available

For refusing to accept defeat, I would basically play any odds, since it will be the case no matter what. But then again we would have to define what "refusing" is. If it's just going on a rant of epic proportions, even 1.01 is super value for me Anything more I would be a bit more cautious with my money. Challenging the election results ? Maybe something around 1.20 is already good^^ Barricading in the WH ? Phew, I would want 50+ for that

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You should be able to place a bet on Biden in nearly every bookmaker there is. The best odds on him you will probably find at Betfair Exchange.

Shanghai Shenhua - Shandong / under 2.5 @2.13 4/10

Not a fan of unders, but often times good value can be found (and you can often hedge inplay). Both these teams have a very good defense and as we know Shanghai is still missing their best player. They had two scoreless draws in their last 3. Shandong can potentially score a lot, but they failed to score even once in their last two matches, so they are struggling offensively and against this Shanghai defense it won't get any easier. Hopefully something like 0-0/0-1/0-2 here

They definitely had good success against KC last season and if not collapsing after Q1 in the PO game, who knows how far they could have gotten. I would think twice about any bet on Houston though. Chiefs will basically play with the same team as last season and I expect them to be super sharp right from the get go because of this. Other teams will struggle a lot more with this limited preparation. Houston lost Hopkins and added Cobb/Cooks, plus they have a new RB in Johnson - I am not sure, if they will click offensively in this game, where you would expect them having to put up some more points to beat this HC.


Not American obviously, but what are you looking for ? Crypto or fiat book ? Would you be willing to do KYC ?

5dimes is maybe something you could check out. They have BTC payments, but KYC afaik.

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German tabloid Bild has some overview regarding spectators. Most teams will play behind closed doors for the start and first weeks, but there are some exceptions:

Browns: Up to 6,000 vs Bengals and Washington
Bengals: Up to 6,000 vs Jaguars and Browns
Ravens
Steelers

Cowboys: 50% capacity allowed
Giants
Washington
Eagles

Colts: Up to 15,000 (25% capacity)
Jaguars: 25% capacity allowed
Titans
Texans

Chiefs: 22% capacity (~16,000)
Broncos
Raiders
Chargers

Dolphins: Up to 13,000 for home opener against Bills
Patriots
Jets
Bills

Buccaneers: ~14,000 allowed
Saints
Falcons
Panthers

Seattle
49ers
Rams
Cardinals

Bears
Packers
Lions
Vikings